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Two powerful earthquakes just seconds apart rocked Venezuela last week, leaving thousands dead and tens of thousands more missing and injured. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss the destruction, reactions to the Venezuelan government’s response, and the ongoing rescue and recovery efforts.
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Week of July 3-10
A Look Ahead
July 4 | Funeral for Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei
The funeral procession for Iran’s late supreme leader Ali Khamenei will start Saturday in Tehran, months after his death.
What’s happened so far
According to Islamic tradition, funerals are usually held within days of a person’s death. Khamenei was killed in the first U.S.-Israeli air strike on his compound in central Tehran on Feb. 28. Iranian officials postponed the funeral indefinitely in early March, citing logistics. Funeral ceremonies and processions are expected to be held in Tehran and the holy city of Qom, with burial set for July 9 in Khamenei’s hometown, the northeastern city of Mashhad. According to Iranian state media, an estimated 18 to 35 million people are expected to attend the ceremonies and processions across the country.
The impact
The funeral comes amid prolonged stalemate between Iran and the United States, after the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, which set a 60-day negotiating period for Tehran and Washington to reach a final ceasefire agreement. While talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar have been ongoing, continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon, as well as recent tit-for-tat U.S. and Iran attacks, have clouded prospects for an end to the war. Focuses will be on Tehran and the rest of the country for the duration of the multi-day funeral as large crowds gather across major cities.
July 4 | 250th Independence Day in the United States
On Saturday, Americans will celebrate 250 years since the country’s leaders adopted a Declaration of Independence from the British Empire, with major celebrations set to take place in Washington, D.C., and beyond.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump has hyped the date since his election in 2024, promising renovations and celebrations in the capital. Thus far, a “Great American State Fair” is being held in Washington’s National Mall park, with booths showcasing the culture of all 56 American states and territories. An Ultimate Fighting Championship event branded as “UFC Freedom 250” took place at the White House lawn in June, with Trump and other senior administration officials present. The bottom of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool received a $14 million renovation in efforts to make the water appear more blue. While most Americans will have Friday, July 3, off work for the federal holiday, feelings about the patriotic holiday vary across the political spectrum.
The impact
More spectacles are planned in Washington, D.C., for the actual date, including an IndyCar race and an attempt at breaking the world record for the largest fireworks display ever. Conversely, left-wing organizations like Women’s March are organizing protests against the Trump administration for July 4. The eastern United States will also be experiencing a major heat wave this weekend, particularly in the heavily populated Mid-Atlantic corridor from New York to Washington. Independence Day is also one of the highest risk days for shootings and drunk driving incidents during a typical American year.
July 6 | Impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte
The Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, will begin hearing the case against Vice President Sara Duterte at 2 p.m. local time on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The House of Representatives voted on May 11 to impeach Duterte, with 257 lawmakers backing the complaint, 25 voting against and nine abstaining after an earlier impeachment bid last year was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. The case centers on allegations of misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth and threatening the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady and a former House speaker, which Duterte denies. The Senate convened as an impeachment court in May, and the court has since issued a pre-trial order after several pre-trial conferences, setting out the July 6 start date.
The impact
If convicted, Duterte would be removed from office and disqualified from holding public office, threatening her declared plan to run for president in 2028. Conviction requires the concurrence of two-thirds of all Senate members, meaning at least 16 votes in the 24-seat chamber. The trial is likely to deepen the Marcos-Duterte political feud and comes just weeks after the Senate replaced Duterte ally Alan Peter Cayetano with Sherwin Gatchalian as Senate president. Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a Duterte ally and potential senator-judge, is wanted by the International Criminal Court and remains at large after disappearing following chaos and gunfire at the Senate in May. Police say they’ll enforce his arrest warrant if he appears at the Senate.
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July 7 | NATO summit
Turkish capital Ankara will host 32 leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and alliance partners during a two-day summit starting Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
The summit takes place amid rising tensions between the countries in the alliance over defense spending and opposing views on the war with Iran. At least 225 people have been arrested so far during protests in Turkey ahead of the event, with Human Rights Watch accusing authorities of “ruthless intolerance of freedom of speech and assembly” during the crackdown.
The impact
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he hopes the summit will strengthen the spirit of alliance while respecting national security sensitivities of the allies. According to reports, NATO allies are expected to pledge “billions of dollars” in arms contracts and production, and will send $80 billion in military support to Ukraine. The bloc is expected to call on Iran to uphold freedom of navigation in what many see as a move to attempt to satisfy President Donald Trump, who has criticized NATO for refusing to join the United States in the war with Iran.
July 7 | Israel attends UN policing conference
An Israeli delegation headed by the country’s Security Minister Itmar Ben-Gvir is set to participate in the United Nation’s bi-annual Chiefs of Police Summit in New York starting Tuesday. Ben-Gvir has a history of making racist remarks against Palestinians and Arabs, prompting calls from rights groups for his arrest or prevention from entry to the United States.
What’s happened so far
The UN is holding the event that brings together law-enforcement leaders from around the world for purposes including “strengthening international peace, security, and development.” Israel’s participation comes at a time when it’s led by a government that continues to occupy and expand into Arab territories in Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. Ben-Gvir often makes statements and joins marches of extremist Jewish groups that declare ethnic supremacy over Arabs.
The impact
The United States is unlikely to take action against Ben-Gvir or the Israeli delegation because of their long-standing alliance that has strengthened further under the Trump administration. And despite threats of using his authority as mayor of New York to execute international arrest warrants against Israeli officials accused of involvement in war crimes, Zoran Mamdani has yet to comment on the upcoming Ben-Gvir visit. Multiple Western countries, including the United Kingdom and France, have banned the entry of Ben-Gvir and taken steps to freeze his assets.
July 9 | Nominations open to replace Starmer as Labour leader
Nominations are set to open Thursday as Britain’s governing Labour Party begins the process of replacing Keir Starmer as its leader, with the winner taking over as the country’s next prime minister.
What’s happened so far
Starmer outlined his plan to resign outside 10 Downing Street in an emotional speech, following sustained pressure. Since winning a mandate with a landslide victory in the July 2024 general election, he has been criticized for his managerial style and a perceived slow pace of change. Pressure intensified in the wake of bruising defeats in May’s elections across England, Scotland and Wales that saw voters deliver a sharp rebuke to Labour. A subsequent false start to a possible leadership contest, triggered by a senior government minister resigning, handed Starmer additional time in office. His longtime rival, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, looks set to take over after winning a by-election that secured him a seat in parliament.
The impact
If no other candidates put themselves forward, Burnham would win the contest unopposed on July 17, a Friday. The handover from Starmer to Burnham, in which the new prime minister would seek permission from King Charles to form a government, would likely take place on Monday, July 20, the day after the World Cup final. Burnham has already begun to set out his vision for the future, which includes moving part of the executive outside of London to Manchester, branded as “No. 10 North,” and a new program of social housing construction.
July 9 | Somalia parliamentary elections in Hirshabelle and Galmudug
Somalia will mark its transition to direct elections in two states on Thursday with regional battles in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. It will also serve as a key test for the country’s broader democratic ambitions amid President Hasan Sheikh Muhamud’s refusal to step down at the end of his term in May and Israel’s recognition of northern Somalia’s Somaliland region late in 2025.
What’s happened so far
Direct local and regional elections took place in the South West State in May, marking the first one-person, one-vote election in the region. The process was interrupted by tension, however, after candidates Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden and Abdiaziz Mohamed Sheikh moved to boycott parts of the campaign on fraud claims. In the aftermath, leaders in Galmudug have sought to reject the model used in the South West State, claiming it does not have broad consensus. In Hirshabelle, authorities are watching for potential security issues with Al-Shabab militants active in the region. Current Hirshabelle regional state President Ali Abdullahi Hussein Guudlaawe claims the group has been largely relegated to three districts as eight others prepare for the upcoming voting.
The impact
Despite the political uncertainty around President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s stance, direct elections in the two states will continue as the country pivots to democratic normalcy. Puntland leadership have formally disowned Mohamud after his refusal to abdicate his position, while Jubbaland leaders claim the territory’s elections need no legal recognition from the Somali government, further complicating a fractured political landscape. In Hirshabelle’s capital of Jowhar, several explosions took place between May and June, reviving old fears of violence. Yet, despite this, the president recently took a trip to the region, highlighting just how important these elections are to the future of the country.
What else matters
Venezuela earthquakes
At least 2,200 people are dead and more than 43,000 others are missing in Venezuela following the June 24 twin earthquakes. Delcy Rodriguez, who became acting president after the U.S. operation in January to depose Nicolás Maduro, says tens of thousands of people are deployed in disaster zones and dozens of emergency shelters are up and running in the hardest hit areas of the country. Telecommunications services are gradually returning and power has been mostly restored in La Guaira. But the known destruction is likely worse than what the Venezuelan government has said. NASA believes nearly 60,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, compared to the government toll of less than a thousand.
Watch for: Many residents of Venezuela are angered with the current government, saying they’ve been disingenuous and the rescue efforts being led by citizens has been faster and more effective than those by the government. It could lead to more pressure on Rodriguez’s administration, especially with the underlying anger that the earthquake was worsened by decades of institutional decay and neglect of building codes. Opposition figure María Corina Machado says she will return to the country imminently, which could spark civil unrest.
Forecast podcast: Death toll and damage estimates soar after catastrophic earthquakes in Venezuela
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela, plus more on the 250th Independence Day in the United States, an impeachment trial for Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte, Israel attending a UN policing conference, and the U.K.’s Labour Party undergoing a leadership contest.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Owen Bonertz, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Ahmed Namatalla, and David Wyllie. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Heat wave during World Cup
From the Midwest to the East Coast, millions of Americans are under extreme heat warnings this week due to a “heat dome” that has likewise prompted advisories across parts of Canada. Officials expect extreme temperatures building this week across the Midwest and Southeast to peak through today, with dangerous heat next shifting toward the Northeast. Paired with high humidity, forecasters predict that heat indexes could top 115 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas as the Independence Day weekend approaches and as fans and players gather for the World Cup’s knockout rounds.
Watch for: Officials in several jurisdictions have announced measures aimed at protecting people during the heat wave, including in Toronto, where Portugal is set to face Croatia in the World Cup later today. In Kansas City, Mo., an excessive heat warning is ongoing due to heat indexes as high as 110 degrees Fahrenheit through Friday, when the city plays host to Colombia and Ghana. On the field, World Cup players will continue to see their controversial hydration breaks, though questions remain around the safety of the matches. Forecasters warn that extreme heat could linger into early next week, raising further concerns, as prolonged heat events are among the deadliest weather hazards in the United States.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 3-10
July 3
- French Grand Prix
July 4
- U.S. Independence Day
- Funeral procession begins in Tehran for Imam Martyr Ayatollah Khamenei
July 6
- Impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte begins
- Indian PM Modi visits Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand
- UN Geneva hosts first-ever meeting of the Global Dialogue on AI Governance
July 7
- NATO Summit in Ankara
- Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir set to attend UN policing conference in New York
- Saba Saba protest anniversary in Kenya
July 9
- Nominations open for UK prime minister
- Somalia parliamentary elections in Hirshabelle and Galmudug
- Evian Championship in France
July 10
- Hungarian Grand Prix
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Allahabad, India
July 11-17
July 11
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Patna, India
- Malaysia’s Johor state elections
- Twelfth in Northern Ireland
July 12
- Sweden effectively ends permanent residency for asylum seekers
- MLB Draft in Philadelphia
July 13
- DEA’s Fentanyl Free America Summit in Orlando
- EU Palestinian Donor Group meets in Brussels
July 14
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Delhi, India
- EU decision expected on Paramount, Warner Bros deal
- MLB All-Star Game in Philadelphia
- U.S. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to testify before Congress
- Roscosmos Soyuz MS-29 mission launch
July 15
- Possible confirmation hearing date for Todd Blanche as U.S. attorney general
- Canada’s bail reform law comes into effect
- U.K. and India free trade deal comes into effect
- Zambia set to host the J30 International Tennis Tournament
- Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Forum
July 16
- Fanatics Fest in New York City
- 154th Open at Royal Birkdale (golf)
- CPAC Great Britain
July 18-24
July 19
- Sao Tome and Principe presidential election
July 20
- Inauguration of Colombia’s new Congress
July 21
- 19th Australian Space Forum in Adelaide
July 22
- European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting
- Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro appears in U.S. court
July 23
- Commonwealth Games begins
- Belgian Grand Prix
July 25-31
July 27
- Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir general elections
July 28
- US Federal Reserve Meeting
- Peru’s Keiko Fujimori expected to be inaugurated as president
July 30
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
- Women’s British Open
Top photo: Crowds attend the Kick Off Rally at the Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (White House Intern Photo by Austin DeSisto)
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