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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The Debrief: As Ebola sees a resurgence in Africa, and measles cases soar across the Americas, a strong, coordinated global health response is as important as ever. But one year after the shutdown of USAID, organizations are struggling to fill the funding vacuum and meet the need.
Read more in this month’s edition of the Debrief.
Week of July 10-17
A Look Ahead
July 11 | State elections in Johor, Malaysia
Malaysia’s Johor state will hold its 16th election with polling set for Saturday, with early voting held earlier this week.
What’s happened so far
The Johor state assembly was dissolved on June 1 after obtaining the consent of Johor Regent Tunku Mahkota Ismail, paving the way for a snap state election. A total of 172 candidates are contesting 56 seats, with the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan parties fielding candidates in every constituency and Perikatan Nasional contesting 33 seats. Early voting was held Tuesday, with turnout reaching about 95 percent, surpassing the 87 percent recorded during early voting in the 2022 Johor election.
The impact
The state polls will not directly affect Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s parliamentary majority, but significant losses could weaken his coalition’s prospects ahead of a general election due by early 2028. Barisan Nasional won 40 of Johor’s 56 seats in the 2022 state election and is seeking to retain control, while Pakatan Harapan is its rival in the state despite the two blocs being partners in Anwar’s federal unity government. Border movement from Singapore will be a practical watch point, with Malaysia setting up a task force and considering dedicated immigration lanes for Johoreans returning from Singapore to vote.
July 14 | Indian opposition leader to hold student convention in New Delhi
The final rally of India’s nationwide campaign over education-related scandals will take place in Delhi on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Rahul Gandhi, the opposition leader in Indian parliament’s lower house, has called for reforms in the country’s education system, following recent controversies including the alleged leak of NEET medical school entry tests and reported errors in the digital evaluation system for the secondary school leaving exam. With the first convention successfully wrapped up in Kota on June 17, a series of rallies will follow in Allahabad, Patna, and Delhi, on July 10, 11 and 14 respectively.
The impact
According to the opposition, at least four student unions will be mobilized, with students, youth organizations, educators and others affected by the controversies encouraged to join the convention. While officials have yet to release an estimate of the number of participants expected, authorities and local media will be keeping an eye on the rallies as large crowds are expected to gather in the capital.
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July 14 | EU Commission to decide on Paramount takeover of Warner Bros
The European Commission will have to decide whether to clear the takeover of Warner Bros or launch a 90-day investigation by Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
In February 2026, Paramount announced a merger agreement with Warner Bros, valued at approximately $110 billion. This followed Netflix’s decision to walk away from the deal, due to it no longer being “financially attractive” to them. The proposed acquisition would involve acquiring rights to media giant CNN. Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison previously promised “sweeping changes” to the company if Warner Bros was acquired.
The impact
The European Commission found that the deal, backed by sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, could fall under EU subsidy scrutiny. The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), UAE-based L’imad Holding Company and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are all backing the proposed deal, to the sum of around $24 billion of equity finance.
July 15 | U.K. and India free trade deal comes into effect
Almost a year after it was first signed, a landmark free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and India will take effect Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The U.K. and India signed a free trade deal last July after years of negotiating, spurred on by global economic chaos from U.S. President Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
The impact
Under the agreement, tariffs on goods like textiles, alcohol and vehicles will be cut between the two countries, with the aim to increase bilateral trade by $34 billion by 2040. Meanwhile, EU and India authorities are also working to implement their own massive free trade agreement by early 2027.
July 15 | Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Forum
Political leaders from across Ethiopia are expected to gather for a three-week-long event starting Wednesday in Addis Ababa that aims to address social and political issues affecting the country.
What’s happened so far
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission was established in 2021 with the aim of addressing social and political issues and starting a reconciliation process amidst the conflict in the Tigray region. The forum is expected to bring together societal figures and representatives from several groups to discuss eight thematic pillars put together by the commission, which include religious affairs, rule of law, human rights and status of federal cities.
The impact
The event has been marred by concerns over legitimacy and inclusivity, and it is unclear if armed groups and Tigray representatives will attend the forum. In March, the Commission relocated an agenda-gathering forum for Tigray to the capital Addis Ababa, citing lack of “favorable and enabling conditions” in the region. Despite the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan rebels reaching agreement to end the two-year hostilities after mediated peace talks in late 2022, in May this year, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front announced it had restored its pre-war legislative council and elected TPLF chair Debretsion Gebremichael as the region’s president.
July 15 | Senate confirmation hearing for U.S. attorney general nominee Todd Blanche
Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche is set to face a two-day public confirmation hearing beginning Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump fired former Attorney General Pam Bondi in early April after growing dissatisfied with her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files fallout, among other issues. Blanche, a former law firm partner and federal prosecutor, was nominated as acting attorney general in the days after. The Senate Judiciary Committee set a date of July 15 for his two-day hearing to begin, with Blanche appearing Wednesday, and outside witnesses expected to testify Thursday. Democrats are expected to oppose his nomination, with one Republican required to break ranks to torpedo his chances. Senators have voiced concerns over a proposed $1.776 billion Jan. 6 rioter settlement fund.
The impact
If a majority of the Senate Judiciary Committee approves of Blanche, a full vote could be put to the Senate by the August recess. If votes run along party lines, Blanche can expect to be confirmed. A failure to confirm Blanche, losing a key Senate vote on a nominee, would be a blow to Trump’s agenda, handing Democrats a win as November’s midterm elections approach.
What Else Matters
Wildfires in Southern Europe
Thousands of people have been evacuated from homes threatened by wildfires across southern Europe as surging temperatures continue to impact the continent. In the French department of Pyrénées-Orientales, more than 12,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to a fast-spreading fire that broke out over the weekend near Trévillach. Emergency services in Spain’s Catalonia have been tackling multiple large fires in the region that have triggered lockdowns and evacuations, while a major operation in Portugal brought a wildfire under control that had spread over 32,000 acres in Vouzela.
Watch for: This is the third heat wave to hit Europe since May, and it is increasing the risk of highly destructive and fast-spreading wildfires in the Mediterranean. These spells of extremely hot weather have contributed to a rise in deaths and exacerbated summer droughts across western and southern Europe. Throughout this week, temperatures remain high in western and southern Europe and the WHO has warned Europe could face “more deadly weeks” ahead as another intense heat wave is forming over the Atlantic. These climate-change-driven heat waves overwhelm healthcare systems, put strain on critical infrastructure and expose much of Europe’s unpreparedness for a climate that is warming at around twice the rate of the global average.
U.S.-Iran war
A new escalation in tit-for-tat attacks between the United States and Iran is threatening the fragile ceasefire they signed last month, even as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to increase. Pakistan-mediated ceasefire negotiations bound by a 60-day timeframe have yet to yield any measurable progress as both sides renew threats to restart direct fighting.
Watch for: Unlike past exchanges of strikes, U.S. bombing in southern Iran this week killed at least eight soldiers, marking the first fatalities related to hostilities that followed the June 17 signing of the ceasefire agreement. Iran is threatening to retaliate, including possibly closing down the Strait of Hormuz again, while the United States threatens to reimpose its blockade on Iranian ports to prevent export of the country’s most valuable commodity, oil. President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of restarting the war on Wednesday, reversing his call a day earlier that the ceasefire deal is “over.” The second phase of talks between the two sides ends on Aug. 16, at which point they’ll decide whether to reach an agreement, extend the negotiations or resume fighting.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 10-17
July 10
- Indian PM Modi to visit New Zealand
- Indian opposition leader holds student convention in Allahabad
- Hungarian Grand Prix
July 11
- Indian opposition leader holds student convention in Patna, India
- Malaysia's Johor state elections
- Twelfth in Northern Ireland
- MLB Draft in Philadelphia
July 12
- Sweden effectively ends permanent residency for asylum seekers
July 13
- DEA's Fentanyl Free America Summit in Orlando
- EU Palestinian Donor Group meets in Brussels
- The Twelfth celebrations held in Northern Ireland
July 14
- Indian opposition leader holds student convention in Delhi, India
- EU decision expected on Paramount, Warner Bros deal
- MLB All-Star Game in Philadelphia
- U.S. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to testify before Congress
- Roscosmos Soyuz MS-29 mission launch
July 15
- Confirmation hearing for Todd Blanche as U.S. attorney general
- Canada's bail reform law comes into effect
- U.K. and India free trade deal comes into effect
- Zambia set to host the J30 International Tennis Tournament
- Ethiopia's National Dialogue Forum
July 16
- Fanatics Fest in New York City
- 154th Open at Royal Birkdale (golf)
- CPAC Great Britain
July 17
- Tomorrowland begins in Boom, Belgium
- California State Fair begins
July 18-24
July 19
- Sao Tome and Principe presidential election
July 20
- Inauguration of Colombia's new Congress
- Outgoing Colombian president calls for marches against incoming president
July 21
- 19th Australian Space Forum in Adelaide
July 22
- European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting
- Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro appears in U.S. court
- Protests planned against Keiko Fujimori in Cusco, Peru
July 23
- Commonwealth Games begin
- Belgian Grand Prix
- Delaware State Fair begins
July 24
- Rescheduled White House Correspondents' Dinner
- Montana State Fair begins
July 25-31
July 25
- 2026 WNBA All-Star Game
July 27
- Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir general elections
July 28
- U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting
- Peru's Keiko Fujimori expected to be inaugurated as president
July 29
- Ohio State Fair begins
July 30
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
- Women's British Open
- Lollapalooza begins in Chicago
- Bangor State Fair begins in Maine
July 31
- New Jersey State Fair begins
Aug. 1-7
Aug. 1
- State elections for Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Aug. 6
- State Fair of West Virginia begins
- Wisconsin State Fair begins
Aug. 7
- Inauguration of 43rd president of Colombia
- Outside Lands begins in San Francisco
- Indiana State Fair begins
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Top photo: Ethiopia's National Dialogue Forum is set to meet for three weeks in Addis Ababa starting July 15. Facilitators, seen above, have met in recent months to prepare for the summit. (Photos: Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission)
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