Dave Clark
About 72,000 migrants rushed the border between Morocco and the Spanish territory of Ceuta last week, leading to clashes and at least 88 deaths. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jess Fino talk about the resulting disputes over migration policy and border controls and the role misinformation and disinformation played in triggering the crisis.
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Week of Aug. 7-14
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
A Look Ahead
Aug. 8 | WorldPride March in Amsterdam
The Netherlands’ Amsterdam will play host to the WorldPride March on Saturday, ending two weeks of events celebrating the LGBTQ+ community.
What’s happened so far
According to organizers, the march will take place from 3 to 6 p.m. local time on Saturday with participants marching through southern Amsterdam before concluding at the city’s Museumplein. This weekend’s Pride march follows last weekend’s annual Pride boat parade in Amsterdam that witnessed hundreds of thousands of participants, including openly-gay Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten.
The impact
Amsterdam police have increased security measures for the city’s Pride events in the wake of July’s deadly car ramming attack targeting a Pride event in Berlin. Dutch authorities recently issued a report outlining terror threats the country faces, highlighting jihadist-inspired threats such as the alleged Berlin attacker as well as so-called “nihilistic” extremism. The report left the Netherlands’ national threat level at four out of five.
Aug. 8 | New Belarus Conference in Warsaw
Belarus’ exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will open the New Belarus Conference in Warsaw on Saturday, which will focus on the situation in Belarus and support for political prisoners six years after the mass protests that sought to topple President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
What’s happened so far
The conference, which brings together the Belarusian diaspora and prominent opposition figures, will focus this year on possible cooperation with Ukraine and prospects after the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The event coincides with the anniversary of the mass protests that began in 2020 in Belarus following the rigged election that kept authoritarian President Lukashenko in the seat of power. To mark the occasion, Tsikhanouskaya has announced rallies in various cities around the world, with the main march scheduled for 6 p.m. in central Warsaw.
The impact
Little has changed in Belarus since the 2020 presidential election and subsequent mass crackdown by the authorities. Amnesty International estimates more than 50,000 individuals were arbitrarily detained for taking part or being associated with the protests, with many subjected to torture and mistreatment. Over the past two years, Minsk has released more than 500 political prisoners, including prominent opposition figures like Maria Kolesnikova, as part of talks with Washington to lift sanctions. This rapprochement, however, is unlikely to go further as Minsk remains one of Moscow’s key allies in its war in Ukraine and is still heavily sanctioned internationally.
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Aug. 9 | U.S. holds first Patriot Games
The first-ever Patriot Games will see high school athletes from across the United States compete in a series of athletic events while representing their state or territory beginning Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The Patriot Games are part of America’s 250th anniversary of independence celebrations, featuring one male and one female high school student from each U.S. state or territory. The event will take place at the Spire Academy in Geneva, Ohio, with two winners taking home $125,000 in scholarship prize money each on Aug. 13.
The impact
President Donald Trump’s Freedom 250 organization, behind the UFC event at the White House in June, organized the first Patriot Games. Critics have pointed toward Trump’s statements regarding transgender athletes not being permitted to take part in the competition. Others have compared the competition to the Orwellian story of The Hunger Games. The event will be streamed on the ESPN app, culminating with a primetime special on ABC Network.
Aug. 10 | Regional elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir
The last round of elections for the regional parliament of disputed Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir will be held Monday in Poonch Division, a flash point in the current unrest over rights and representation.
What's happened so far
Deadly unrest over seats reserved for Indian Kashmiris who migrated to Pakistan prompted authorities to hold polls in three phases instead of one on July 27. Violence in the region, particularly in Poonch, erupted in June, when the Pakistani government banned the grassroots Jammu and Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee under the guise of “engaging in terror,” and accused its members of attacking law enforcement. The movement has refuted those accusations, reporting more than 80 civilian deaths by police action as of July 31.
The impact
The region has been under a de facto lockdown, with no internet access since June 5 and with travel advisories discouraging outsiders. Elections wrapped in Mirpur and Muzaffarabad divisions, marred by a boycott by the activists, vote-rigging allegations by the Pakistan People's Party and more violence. The final phase in Poonch Division is scheduled to go ahead despite tensions on Aug. 10. Its capital Rawalakot has been the focus of protests, police action, paramilitary raids and arrests with more violence expected around the polls.
Aug. 11 | Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin and South Carolina
With early polling already underway, voters across Wisconsin, Minnesota, Vermont and Connecticut will be casting ballots on Tuesday to narrow down the field of candidates for the general election in November.
What's happened so far
The primary campaign has been particularly messy for Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, with mainline Democrats scrambling to catch up to frontrunner democratic socialist Francesca Hong after the campaigns of two of their top contenders imploded just last month.
The impact
The results of Tuesday's primaries will be another important bellwether for the ideological war happening between progressives and moderates within the Democratic party. A special primary will also take place on Tuesday in South Carolina for a U.S. Senate seat to replace the late Lindsey Graham, with a short campaign runway and a crowded ballot meaning a likely runoff on Aug. 25 between the leading two candidates.
Aug. 13 | Zambian elections
On Thursday, voters in Zambia will participate in a closely-watched general election that will see whether the country's president can secure a second term.
What's happened so far
Voters will elect the country's president as well as members of the National Assembly and a slate of local government officials, including councillors and council chairpersons. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema, who won a landslide victory in the last election in 2021, is running for reelection with the backing of his UPND Alliance. Key opposition figure Brian Mundubile and his Tonse Alliance are hoping to win enough support to push the presidential vote to a runoff. Inflation and high food prices remain a challenge for Hichilema, who came to power pledging to revive the country's economy and tackle corruption. Election observers from the European Union will monitor the process.
The impact
If no candidate wins an outright majority, the presidential race will advance to a runoff between the top two, which would be a blow to Hichilema who hopes to win another term handily. The makeup of the country's National Assembly is also up for grabs as the United Party for National Development hopes to defend their majority and control over the executive branch and the country's legislature.
What Else Matters
Migrant influx in Ceuta, Spain
Last week, thousands of people attempted to cross into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in northern Africa after misinformation on social media was circulating in Morocco that borders were open following recent changes in regulation on migrants arriving by sea. The most significant influx happened on July 30, with Moroccan border police deploying tear gas to limit the amount of arrivals at its Tarajal border. While thousands have since returned to Morocco, many still risked the journey, with at least 88 people dying at sea.
Watch for: The incident quickly became politicized both in Spain and abroad, with the opposition parties blaming Pedro Sanchez's government for creating this crisis and asking it to militarize, close the border and call a national emergency. Elsewhere, Italy's Giorgia Meloni suspended the Schengen agreement with Spain for one month in the aftermath, with several other European countries criticizing Spain's progressive policies toward migration. But these incidents are not isolated. Just last week dozens of migrants were arrested in Estonia after allegedly crossing the border from Belarus to Latvia before entering Estonia. The events in Ceuta will add to the already growing political polarization in a divided Europe.
Podcast: Misinformation triggers deadly border rush by migrants in Spanish territory of Ceuta
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jess Fino discuss the rush of migrants at the border between Morocco and the Spanish territory of Ceuta, plus more on a WorldPride March in Amsterdam, regional elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, several primary elections in the US, and a general election in Zambia.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, Alex Moore, Halima Mansoor, Vivian Wang, and David Wyllie. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Spokane fires
Tens of thousands of people were evacuated and hundreds of buildings destroyed this past week after the most destructive wildfires in Washington state history. Most of the damage came from three separate fires: The Old Trails Fire, the Fairview Fire and the Autumn Lane Fire. Together, they have burned more than 10,000 acres. The National Weather Service had issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation alert for the weather on Saturday due to strong winds and high temperatures, marking the first time that designation had been used in the Pacific Northwest. That reportedly helped first responders evacuate at least 60,000 people in two hours, leading to no deaths or injuries.
Watch for: Wildfire threats continue in the state and the worst may be yet to come. Eastern Washington had a historically poor snow season, making it extremely dry, and the area is forecast to see even more hot, windy weather in the coming days. That means the evacuation orders are still in place, to avoid having people evacuate again. Law enforcement is on high alert as well. Police have arrested a man accused of starting the Old Trails Fire and say they are being vigilant of the first signs of looting or theft in evacuated areas. Air quality alerts are in place throughout the state because of smoke from the wildfires, with some groups being told to limit their outdoor activities.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 7-14
Aug. 7
- Inauguration of 43rd president of Colombia
- Outside Lands begins in San Francisco
- Indiana State Fair begins
Aug. 8
- New Belarus Conference in Warsaw
- Primaries in Hawaii
- WorldPride March in Amsterdam
Aug. 9
- U.S. holds first Patriot Games
Aug. 10
- Taiwan Urban Resilience (Air-Defense) Exercise
- Final phase of Pakistan-held Kashmir elections
Aug. 11
- Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin
- Wyoming State Fair begins
Aug. 12
- UEFA Super Cup in Salzburg, Austria
Aug. 13
- Illinois State Fair begins
- Missouri State Fair begins
- Tennessee State Fair begins
- Zambian elections
Aug. 14
- Pakistan Independence Day
Aug. 15-21
Aug. 15
- Indian Independence Day
Aug. 17
- Indonesian Independence Day
Aug. 18
- Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
Aug. 19
- Academy of Country Music Awards (ACMs)
Aug. 20
- Kentucky State Fair begins
Aug. 21
- Alaska State Fair begins
- Dutch Grand Prix
- Oregon State Fair begins
Aug. 22-28
Aug. 22
- 2026–27 Premier League season opens
- Spanish Vuelta cycling race
Aug. 23
- Singapore National Day rally
- Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan
Aug. 26
- New York State Fair begins
Aug. 27
- PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta
- Reading Festival
- Leeds Festival
- Maryland State Fair begins
- Minnesota State Fair begins
Aug. 28
- All Points East in London
- Colorado State Fair begins
- Nebraska State Fair begins
Aug. 29-Sept. 4
Aug. 29
- Iceland referendum on accession negotiations with the EU
- Vietnam National Day holiday
- Notting Hill Carnival begins in London
Aug. 30
- First round of Haiti general election
- Estonia parliamentary election
- U.S. Open (tennis) main draw begins in New York
- Sydney Marathon
Aug. 31
- South Africa's Madlanga Commission to fight police corruption submits final findings
Sept. 2
- South Dakota State Fair begins
- Estonia presidential election
- Venice International Film Festival begins
Sept. 3
- Hopkinton State Fair (New Hampshire) begins
Sept. 4
- Rock in Rio begins in Brazil
- Eastern Idaho State Fair begins
- Washington State Fair begins
- FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in Berlin
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Top photo: Amsterdam will host this year's WorldPride March, pictured here in New York City in 2019. (Photo: Bohemian Baltimore / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY SA)
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