The Debrief: What Ukraine needs now

Ukraine is prioritizing developing anti-ballistic capabilities more than four years into the conflict with Russia as the Iran war strains limited supplies of the most reliable weapon Kyiv has to counter the Russian threat – U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles.

Explosions thundered through Kyiv in the early morning hours of July 6 as Russia launched hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at Ukraine, sparking fires that damaged warehouses and destroyed residential buildings. Ukrainian air defenses shot down more than three dozen missiles and 326 drones but failed to down any of the 29 ballistic missiles fired by Russia. By daylight, officials said at least 28 people were killed in the bombardment, with dozens more injured.

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Since the beginning of the year, Russia and Ukraine have traded escalating strikes, with Ukraine focused on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, and Russia launching some of the deadliest attacks on Ukrainian civilians since the start of the war.

“This year has been the year of the missile and drone strikes because the battlefield by and large has stalled,” Factal’s Europe Lead James Morgan said. “We haven’t really been reporting any material gains.”

Deadly ballistic missile strikes have become more frequent in Ukraine in the past several months. In one week in late July, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said more than half of the 95 missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine were ballistic missiles.

“This year has been the year of the missile and drone strikes.”

“Russia has enormous resources and it also has the logistic lines in place to be able to supply components to create these missiles, which is something that Ukraine is also trying to counter at the moment,” Morgan said, pointing to recent strikes on warehouses belonging to Russia’s online retailer Wildberries.

Zelenskyy said the company’s warehouses are “involved in providing the Russian army with components for drones, navigation equipment and equipment,” a charge Russian officials have denied.

At the same time, Zelenskyy has pressed to secure more of the highly efficient — and increasingly scarce — U.S.-made Patriot missiles key to responding to Russian attacks.

“When Russia launches a drone attack now, the only way that it’s going to get any drones through cracks in Ukraine’s defense is if it overwhelms them with numbers, and that’s not a sustainable way of attacking,” Morgan said. “(So) it’s started firing more ballistic missiles and these are much, much harder for Ukraine to shoot down.”

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said in June, air defenses intercepted 90 percent of drones fired by Russia and nearly 90 percent of all missile types, with the exception of ballistic missiles. Authorities said the interception rate for that type was only at 40 percent, emphasizing the need for “modern missile defense systems like the Patriot, of which there are a limited number in the world.”

“Russia has enormous resources and it also has the logistic lines in place to be able to supply components to create these (ballistic) missiles.”

“What has compounded this problem is America’s war in Iran, because the U.S. is also depleting its supply of Patriot missile batteries as well, which makes the supply of them more scarce,” Morgan said. “Also, there are a limited number of places that can produce them, and they’re very expensive to make.”

Fighting in the Middle East has reportedly diminished the Pentagon’s stockpile of Patriot interceptors and fed anxieties over possible repercussions, including impacts on the United States’ ability to deter adversaries. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump said the country would give Ukraine a license to make Patriot missiles, though details surrounding the plan remain unclear. Experts cautioned that even with the license, it will still take years to manufacture the new interceptors.

“I think that it will be up to Europe to be supplying more advanced weaponry, more advanced detection technology, to give Ukraine forewarning as to when these attacks are going to happen and to provide them with more advanced weaponry that may equate to or be anywhere near Patriot in terms of their efficacy,” Morgan said.

European officials last month announced a coalition between Ukraine and nine other countries aimed at protecting the continent from ballistic weapons, and in the last year, four European countries contributed more than half of the $6.7 billion supplied to Ukraine as part of an initiative to fund U.S.-made military equipment.

Morgan stressed that “what Ukraine needs is a viable solution,” noting that Zelenskyy “is already talking about the winter to come.”

“Because Russia struck so consistently at Ukrainian critical energy infrastructure over this winter, they are preparing themselves for a return to this particular strategy,” Morgan said. “It has a hugely demoralizing effect on the Ukrainian people, who are in the fifth year of this war and facing a winter without heating, without electricity, mostly in the dark.”

Written by Theresa Seiger. Edited by Jillian Stampher.

Top photo: Firefighters respond to a burning building following a Russian missile and drone attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025. (Photo/State Emergency Service of Ukraine)

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