Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
A Look Ahead
Week of Aug. 14-21
Aug. 14 | Pakistan Independence Day
Pakistan will observe its 79th Independence Day on Friday, marking the end of British Rule over the nation.
What’s happened so far
This year’s festivities come amid a period of unrest in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where regional elections have been marred by violent protests and allegations of vote rigging. Meanwhile, clashes between security forces and militants in Balochistan province earlier this week left nearly a dozen militants dead.
The impact
Police in Islamabad have announced traffic restrictions in the capital for Thursday and Friday around planned celebrations at the recently-completed Marka-e-Haq Monument, while officials say a “mega concert” is planned for Lahore on Thursday night, followed by a fireworks show as the clock strikes midnight.
Aug. 15 | Fifth anniversary of Taliban capture of Kabul
Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the Taliban’s re-takeover of Afghanistan after U.S. troops left the country.
What’s happened so far
The Taliban’s swift capture of Kabul in 2021 came on the heels of a chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces following a 20-year occupation of Afghanistan that initially ousted the Taliban from power in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. In 2021, in a matter of months, the Taliban swept through wide swaths of Afghanistan as U.S.-led forces drew down combat operations, ultimately resulting in Kabul being overrun in a timeline that shocked U.S. officials and spurred a hasty evacuation of officials and civilians from the capital city.
The impact
Five years after recapturing Afghanistan, the Taliban government remains diplomatically isolated with only Russia officially recognizing their rule. The group has, however, forged working relationships with a host of other countries, including holding talks with the European Union regarding migrant repatriation. Despite the international overtures, fears that the Taliban would resort to the draconian and sexist governance that characterized their rule in the late-1990s were ultimately founded, with the group overseeing widespread human rights abuses, perhaps most notably passing numerous edicts since 2021 depriving women of rudimentary human rights.
Aug. 15 | Authorities warn of another migrant influx at Ceuta
After last month’s mass influx of people into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in northern Africa, reports of a new surge planned for Saturday have put authorities on alert.
What’s happened so far
On July 30, thousands of people coming mainly from Morocco crossed into Ceuta, creating a humanitarian crisis in the small Spanish enclave. The majority of them have since returned to Morocco, but many others remain in the territory and some even managed to cross into mainland Spain. The incident led Italy to temporarily suspend the border-free Schengen arrangement to prevent any of the migrants from arriving in Italy, despite the two countries not sharing a border.
The impact
While Ceuta is trying to return to normal, a new call to cross the border from Morocco has been circulating on social media. As a result, Spanish authorities have deployed 300 additional riot police and 2,000 soldiers to the territory. The Civil Guard temporarily suspended granting new leave for officers stationed in Ceuta and Melilla. Meanwhile, Spain placed temporary controls at all borders for travelers coming from Italy after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni refused to lift suspension until at least Aug. 15, amid the speculation of the new wave of migration.
Aug. 18 | Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
Voters across Alaska, Florida and Wyoming will cast ballots Tuesday in a number of competitive primary contests as the political calendar advances toward the midterms.
What’s happened so far
Voters will choose candidates for a broad range of offices this week. In all three states, contests will narrow the fields for U.S. Senate, House and statewide seats, including governor and lieutenant governor. Those who advance will compete in the Nov. 3 general election. Florida’s slate of contests is likely to command the most attention, with its Senate, House and governor races, but voting in Wyoming and Alaska may deliver noteworthy results.
The impact
In Florida, November’s midterm contests will include the closely watched special election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio as well as the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, with Democrats hoping to gain ground in a state that has moved increasingly Republican in recent elections. Wyoming’s primary for the open at-large House seat could effectively determine the state’s next representative in the deep-red state, while Alaska’s nonpartisan top-four system could produce unusual general-election matchups.
Aug. 19 | U.S. tariffs on Canada could kick in
Canadian negotiators are prioritizing securing a deal before the United States’ 50 percent tariffs on some goods kick in on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
A series of high-level meetings have given Canadian leadership confidence a deal can be struck with the United States ahead of a 50 percent hike on goods proposed by President Donald Trump over reported discrimination against “American-made cars, alcohol and dairy goods.” These sets of tariffs will use Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a law that hasn’t been referenced in nearly a century. This levy is also not subject to the duties already placed on certain Canadian goods. Canadian officials have told U.S. negotiators that many concerns could be addressed if relief comes on goods already under levy, but a failure to do so could politically hamstring Prime Minister Mark Carney, leading to further escalation on this front of the global trade war.
The impact
Prices on aluminum have shot up nearly 50 percent since the introduction of tariffs placed on the Canadian sector. Carney warns much of tariff pricing has been passed on to the U.S. consumer, exacerbating hikes as 44 percent of aluminum demand in the United States is met by Canadian imports. Canada has also found itself left out of bilateral trade negotiations the U.S. is conducting with Mexico, as the administration hopes to reconfigure deals with both nations as part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Carney said the nation isn’t interested in a piece-meal deal. New tariffs would only further strain relationships with provincial leaders who hold power over bans on specific goods. A poll found Canadian citizens broadly supported retaliatory tariffs against the United States, with 62 percent in favor of intensification.
What Else Matters
Colombia’s earthquake
Early Monday, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake centered in Colombia’s Chocó region affected the entire mountainous Coffee Axis of the country, causing significant damage across a variety of cities. Dozens of buildings collapsed, primarily in Chocó, Caldas, Valle del Cauca, Risaralda and Antioquia. So far, the federal government has reported 265 deaths, but the figure is likely higher. The fatalities have been spread across major cities like Pereira, Cali, Quibdo and Manizales. Additionally, operations across five airports remain suspended, one of them due to a simultaneous volcanic eruption, and schools, hospitals and important roads have also suffered damage and caused closures.
Watch for: It is undoubtedly the case that the death and injury tolls are likely to increase and, due to the damage the tremor caused, it is likely that the rise will be significant. The Coffee Axis is hilly and mountainous, with curfews already announced in Pereira and Cali to aid smooth travel for emergency crews, and the terrain will impede search-and-rescue operations across smaller municipalities. This is also the first operational test for Colombia’s new administration, and so the new president will be under the spotlight.
Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss the deadly earthquake in Colombia, plus more on Pakistan’s Independence Day, the migrant influx in Spain’s Ceuta, several primary elections in the US, and tariffs on Canada possibly kicking in.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Joe Veyera, Jess Fino, David Wyllie, and Dre Grant. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Yemeni Houthi strikes on ships
Yemen’s Houthi militants on Tuesday carried out their first lethal strike since announcing their blockade on Saudi Arabia last month, killing six people in an attack on a ship they claimed was carrying military equipment for Riyadh. Prior to the start of the Red Sea crisis in 2023, an average of around 70 ships per day transited the critical Bab al-Mandeb strait, according to monitor Marine Traffic — a figure that, per Reuters, dropped to around 24 ships per day in early August. The strait served as a critical alternative route for Saudi oil to transit through the Iran-blockaded Strait of Hormuz, and some oil continues to flow there as transporters employ deception to evade Houthi scrutiny. The ongoing turmoil in the region and the capriciousness of the peace process has seen oil prices swing wildly, peaking at more than $100 last month when the blockade was announced.
Watch for: Riyadh has already struck Houthi positions in retaliation for the attacks on shipping. U.S. President Donald Trump previously threatened to “take care of business” in Yemen if the situation escalated, but the United States has not publicly undertaken any military action there since the blockade began. However, given that the United States already attacked the Houthis just last year in response to ship attacks, American intervention against the Saudi blockade is well within the range of possibilities. More frequent or more powerful attacks by any party involved — the Houthis or the Saudis; or even by new parties like the United States, its regional allies, or Pakistan and Turkey, who have just signed a defense pact with Riyadh — could further constrict shipping along the vital waterway, sending oil prices careening even more drastically, and lead to an intensification of conflict in other theaters in the region, as the United States has vowed to “hold Iran responsible” for future Houthi attacks.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 14-21
Aug. 14
- Pakistan Independence Day
Aug. 15
- Indian Independence Day
Aug. 17
- Indonesian Independence Day
Aug. 18
- Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
Aug. 19
- Academy of Country Music Awards (ACMs)
Aug. 20
- Kentucky State Fair begins
Aug. 21
- Alaska State Fair begins
- Dutch Grand Prix
- Oregon State Fair begins
Aug. 22-28
Aug. 22
- 2026–27 Premier League season opens
- Spanish Vuelta cycling race
Aug. 23
- Singapore National Day rally
- Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan
Aug. 26
- New York State Fair begins
Aug. 27
- PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta
- Reading Festival
- Leeds Festival
- Maryland State Fair begins
- Minnesota State Fair begins
Aug. 28
- All Points East in London
- Colorado State Fair begins
- Nebraska State Fair begins
Aug. 29-Sept. 4
Aug. 29
- Iceland referendum on accession negotiations with the EU
- Vietnam National Day holiday
- Notting Hill Carnival begins in London
Aug. 30
- First round of Haiti general election
- Estonia parliamentary election
- U.S. Open (tennis) main draw begins in New York
- Sydney Marathon
Aug. 31
- South Africa’s Madlanga Commission to fight police corruption submits final findings
Sept. 2
- South Dakota State Fair begins
- Estonia presidential election
- Venice International Film Festival begins
Sept. 3
- Hopkinton State Fair (New Hampshire) begins
- Michigan State Fair begins
Sept. 4
- Rock in Rio begins in Brazil
- Eastern Idaho State Fair begins
- Washington State Fair begins
- FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Berlin
Sept. 5-11
Sept. 6
- State elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany
- The Big Half in London
Sept. 8
- 81st session of UN General Assembly
- New Hampshire primary
Sept. 9
- Rhode Island primary
Sept. 10
- New Mexico State Fair begins
- Utah State Fair begins
Sept. 11
- 25th anniversary of 9/11 attacks
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Rock in Rio Brasil
- Kansas State Fair begins
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Top Photo: President Donald Trump hosts a working lunch meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in October 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
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