Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal. We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that a peace deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated” and details would be announced shortly – a claim Iranian media immediately pushed back on. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jordan Seagrove discuss the status of the proposal, some of the sticking points, and how recent Israeli military action in southern Lebanon comes into play.
Week of May 29-June 5
A Look Ahead
May 30 | Champions League Final
Arsenal will take on defending champion Paris Saint-Germain on Saturday in front of a sold-out crowd at the Puskás Aréna stadium in Budapest, Hungary.
What’s happened so far
Both teams topped their national leagues, with Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) winning their fifth-in-a-row title in France’s Ligue 1 and Arsenal ending a 22-year drought to win England’s Premier League. Arsenal last progressed to the final in 2006, but has never won the title. PSG will also be attempting to defend the title, a feat that only Real Madrid has accomplished. The match has been moved forward from its usual start time to 6 p.m. local time in order to better accommodate fans in Budapest. Security in and around the stadium will be tight with ID checks taking place, according to UEFA.
The impact
An Arsenal victory would be a defining moment for the team, lifting the Champions League trophy in Budapest on the Saturday night before a scheduled Sunday afternoon parade in London’s Islington to celebrate their Premier League win. A Champions League win would likely further swell crowds that are already expected to shut down the area around their Emirates stadium home. A repeat win for PSG would likely see an outpouring of support on the streets of Paris and its surrounding communities. More than 100 arrests were made and 23 police officers were injured during clashes when PSG qualified for the final earlier in May.
May 31 | Guinea legislative and municipal elections
On Sunday, Guineans will choose their members of parliament and municipal councilors in an election intended to mark the end of a transition period following the 2021 coup.
What’s happened so far
In 2021, Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya seized power from President Alpha Condé and has controlled Guinea since. Following the coup, Doumbouya announced a 36-month timeline for transition to civilian rule per an agreement with the Economic Community of West African States. Guinea’s opposition accused Doumbouya of betraying his pledge to restore democracy in the country when he won the presidential election in December in a race that excluded prominent rivals. Similar accusations were also leveled in March when a decree dissolved 40 political parties, including Guinea’s three main opposition groups, citing a “failure to meet their obligations.”
The impact
Since coming to power in 2021, Doumbouya has curtailed civil liberties, banned protests and removed political opponents. While these elections mark the end of the transition period and a return to constitutional order, the exclusion of a large part of the political opposition has undermined the credibility of the vote.
May 31 | Colombian presidential election
On Sunday, Colombians will choose their next president amid safety fears due to continued fighting between armed groups.
What’s happened so far
The current leading candidates are Ivan Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella. Left-wing candidate Cepeda leads in polling and has focused on security through dialogue and peace negotiations with armed groups. Far-right candidate De la Espriella trails closely behind Cepeda, promising to build 10 megaprisons in the jungle “in the style” of El Salvador President Nayib Bukele. Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia is also in the running, proposing an international alliance to combat drug trafficking, and geothermal and nuclear energy proliferation.
The impact
An influx in attacks by Colombian militant groups, including FARC and ELN, has sparked concern amongst the country’s population ahead of the election. Presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay was assassinated in Bogota in July last year, highlighting Colombia’s instability and the risk of further electoral-related violence. If neither candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election will take place on June 21.
June 1 | Ethiopia general elections
Millions of people are expected to vote Monday in the first parliamentary elections in Ethiopia since the end of the Tigray war.
What’s happened so far
More than 50.5 million people have reportedly registered to vote in Ethiopia’s seventh general election, with more than 187,000 officials deployed to administer the vote at over 52,000 polling stations nationwide. The African Union sent election observers to the country, with a preliminary assessment of election-day procedures due June 3. When Ethiopians last went to the polls in 2021, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party won by a landslide amid allegations of election irregularities.
The impact
Though officials recently touted voter registration numbers, calling them “a historic milestone in the country’s democratic evolution,” allegations of voter manipulation and intimidation have already surfaced, and Monday’s contest is not expected to be competitive. Security concerns remain high, with long-running insurgencies ongoing in Oromia and Amhara — the country’s largest regions — and tension still high in Tigray despite a peace agreement signed in 2022. Voting has already been canceled in several constituencies.
June 1 | Target date for ICE, Border Patrol funding bill
President Donald Trump set a Monday deadline for Congress to pass an immigration and border security package for the remainder of his term, but concerns from lawmakers over a controversial “anti-weaponization” settlement fund likely means a deal won’t reach his desk on his schedule.
What’s happened so far
Republican leaders appeared poised to pass a roughly $70 billion bill before the Department of Justice announcement of a $1.8 billion fund to compensate those “who suffered weaponization and lawfare” as part of a settlement of Trump’s lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service. That agreement has drawn bipartisan resistance, with concerns that taxpayer-funded payouts could go to convicted Jan. 6 rioters under the guise of political prosecution. Meanwhile, lawmakers had already dropped a $1 billion Secret Service funding request from the immigration enforcement funding bill, following a ruling by the Senate parliamentarian and opposition from some Republicans.
The impact
The backlash to the anti-weaponization fund is the latest sign of growing friction between top Republicans and the White House. Despite a 53-47 majority in the Senate, an increasing number of GOP incumbents appear willing to buck the president, either distancing themselves in the face of tight re-election battles or expressing frustration after losing primary bids to stay in office.
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June 3 | Portugal general strike
A large strike is set to take place Wednesday across Portugal as workers protest a controversial revision of the labor laws already approved by ministers.
What’s happened so far
One of the largest trade unions called a new general strike, the twelfth the country has held since the end of the dictatorship in 1974 and just six months after the last one that had a significant impact on transport, schools, health services and other sectors. The call for action comes after the proposed revision of labor legislation was approved by the Council of Ministers despite large contestation by trade unions and opposition parties, who argue the measures, which include greater flexibility in working hours, expansions of temporary contracts, facilitation of dismissals and limitations on the right to strike and union activity, would lead to a more precarious job market. The bill now goes to parliamentary debate.
The impact
Several sectors are once again expected to be impacted by the general strike, including education, transport and health services. While most unions and sectors have said they will adhere to the strike action, the Civil Aviation Pilots Union has decided not to join, saying the initiative “does not come at the most appropriate time.” Still, airport operations are likely to be disrupted as the flight personnel and airport workers unions decided to take part.
June 3 | South Korea local elections
Voters will elect more than 3,700 people into office across South Korea, including mayors, governors and National Assembly members, in local elections and parliamentary by-elections on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
This will be South Korea’s first nationwide poll since current President Lee Jae-myung was elected last year, after former President Yoon Suk-yeol was ousted for briefly declaring martial law. South Korea’s conservative opposition is framing this election as a referendum on Lee’s performance since taking office and has accused him of using his power to shield himself from still-outstanding criminal charges, but Lee’s popularity has been bolstered by strong stock market performance and his response to the global fuel crisis.
The impact
South Korea’s government raised the national terror alert level by one step to the second-lowest on a four-tier scale as a preemptive measure against potential threats to the elections. AI disinformation is also a challenge, with hundreds of government staff tracking and countering manipulated content ahead of the polls.
June 4 | Anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Massacre
Thursday will mark 37 years since the deadly 1989 crackdown on student protests in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.
What’s happened so far
When Chinese students gathered in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in April 1989, they were there to mark the death of pro-reform politician Hu Yaobang. What began as just a student protest, however, erupted into a monumental demonstration against economic woes and corruption, with conversations about broader governmental reforms. By the end of May, the Chinese government decided to impose martial law. Despite that, the protests continued. Then, on the evenings of June 3-4, the People’s Liberation Army deployed tanks on the square, ending the protest by force. The death toll remains unknown, though some place it in the thousands.
The impact
The protests in Tiananmen Square and subsequent crackdown remains taboo in Chinese society with pro-democracy advocates routinely subject to acts of persecution. In Hong Kong, where vigils were still held for those killed during the demonstrations in Tiananmen Square, commemorations have been replaced by a food carnival in Victoria Park. In the formal absence of commemorations in China, other countries continue to hold their own vigils. This includes Taiwan, whose event last year attracted nearly 3,000 people.
What Else Matters
Temperatures spike with oppressive “heat dome” over Western Europe
France and the United Kingdom are seeing exceptionally high temperatures, with London having smashed a century-old record twice with temperatures topping 34 degrees Celsius (93 degrees Fahrenheit). This heat wave has been attributed to a “heat-dome” of warm air from northern Africa. Temperatures could still peak, with Spain expecting temperatures of around 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the week.
Watch for: The heat wave has seen people head to beaches to cool off a bit earlier in the season, before lifeguards start to watch over swimmers. At least five teenagers drowned in the United Kingdom this week, incidents believed to be linked to the weather. French officials said at least seven deaths can be linked directly or indirectly to the heat. The U.K. health agency issued an amber alert, which signifies an increased risk of deaths, for several regions of England. The French Education Ministry sent instructions to schools and institutes to ensure safety during classes and exams. In Spain, Barcelona limited outdoor work to 20 minutes with micro-breaks in a pilot program for municipal workers after at least one employee died in a heatwave last year. Italy’s Lazio region also approved limitations on outdoor work.
Potential Iran war-end
In communications this week, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to tie ending the war with Iran to Arab and Muslim countries normalizing relations with Israel, a condition unlikely to be fulfilled in the near term by leaders of those countries. Exchanges of low-level attacks continue between Iran and the United States in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, which this week marks three months of effective closure prompted by the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.
Watch for: Days after statements by senior American, Iranian and Pakistani officials on Saturday about progress in the talks bringing a deal within reach, an agreement doesn’t appear imminent. Trump singled out Saudi Arabia and Qatar as states that should sign the so-called Abraham Accords that others, including the UAE and Morocco, have signed, establishing public diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia’s government response has been limited to pro-government social media accounts and an unidentified source telling western news outlets that it’s holding firm to its 2002 condition of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed never to allow a Palestinian state, while boasting about expanding occupation of their territories. Meanwhile, Iran maintains a potential deal will only address the Strait of Hormuz and its assets frozen by the United States, postponing further into the future more contentious negotiations about its nuclear program.
Listen to the Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jordan Seagrove discuss the elusive Iran peace deal, plus more on the Champions League Final, elections in Colombia and Ethiopia, and a general strike in Portugal. This episode includes work from Factal editors Jordan Seagrove, David Wyllie, Michael Archer, Theresa Seiger, and Jess Fino. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
May 29-June 5
May 29
- Expanded Terminal 2 opens at Hong Kong International Airport
- Ottawa to begin $8.5B rollout for Ontario First Nations to reclaim child welfare
- Alberta Federation of Labour holds protest
- Italy national strike
- Pam Bondi to testify in House Oversight Committee’s Epstein investigation
- Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
May 30
- Champions League final
- Malta parliamentary elections
May 31
- Colombian presidential election
- Guinea legislative and municipal elections
- Hungary’s Premier-elect Magyar sets deadline for senior officials to resign
- ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons resigns
- Vietnam’s leader To Lam visits the Philippines
June 1
- Ethiopia general election
- Trump’s deadline on vote for his $1.8B fund
- Germany’s Lufthansa group preparing to gradually resume Tel Aviv flights
- Mexican teachers’ unions strike
- Beginning of peak wildfire season for northern Western Australia
June 2
- Primary elections in Iowa, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota
- Peru transport workers strike
June 3
- South Korean local election
- Portugal general strike
- NBA Finals begin
June 4
- Anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Massacre
June 5
- Spanish Grand Prix
- Turkey hosts Zero Waste Forum
- Pope visits Spain
June 6-12
June 6
- Belmont Stakes
June 7
- Armenian parliamentary elections
- Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan, Assembly general election
- Peru presidential election
- Mexico’s Coahuila state legislative elections
- Italy municipal elections runoff
- Tony Awards
- Kosovo parliamentary elections
June 8
- Bonn Climate Change Conference
- National Sheriffs’ Association Annual Conference
- Apple Worldwide Developers Conference
June 9
- Primary elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina
June 10
- Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
- Japan rocket launch
- Banco de Mexico Financial Stability Report
- B7 Summit in France
- South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review
- Portugal Day
June 11
- Mexico transporters strike
- World Cup begins
- North Carolina Republican Party State Convention
- Turkish interest rate decision
- Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival begins
- Central Reserve Bank of Peru monetary policy meeting and decision
June 12
- Bay Area-Silicon Valley Summit 2026
- Russia Day
- Philippines Independence Day
- Nigeria Democracy Day
- 55th Annual National Right to Life Conference
June 13-19
June 13
- UK King’s Birthday Trooping the Colour
- Iowa Democratic Party State Convention
- Nevada State Democratic Party Convention
- Democratic Party of Wisconsin State Convention
- Green Party of California online General Assembly
June 14
- G7 Leaders Summit in France
- White House hosts UFC fight to celebrate 250 years since U.S. independence
- Switzerland referendum
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade
June 15
- UAW Constitutional Convention
June 16
- Oklahoma, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., primaries
- Georgia primary runoff
- Banco Central de Chile Monetary Policy Meeting interest rate announcement
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
- Our Ocean Conference
- Islamic New Year
- Royal Ascot begins
June 17
- U.S. Interest rate decision
- Brazil Monetary Policy decision
- Swedish repo rate announcement
- 2026 MLB Draft Combine
- ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit
- Iceland National Day
- 89th Tour de Suisse begins
June 18
- U.S. Open begins (golf)
- NATO defense ministers meeting
- EU Summit
- Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony in Chicago
- U.K. interest rate decision
- Taiwan Monetary Policy Decision
- Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting and decision
- Norges Bank monetary policy decision and publication of Monetary Policy Report
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Monetary Board on Monetary Policy meeting and decision
- Czech interest rate decision
- Seychelles Constitutional Day
June 19
- Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring
- Juneteenth
June 20-26
June 20
- Argentina National Flag Day
- Pope Leo visits Pavia and Sant’Angelo Lodigiano
June 21
- Summer solstice
- Colombia presidential election runoff
June 22
- OAS General Assembly
- People’s Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement
June 23
- NBA Draft 2026
- Paris men’s fashion week
- New York, Maryland and Utah primaries
- Hungarian interest rate decision
- 10th anniversary of Colombian civil war ceasefire agreement
June 24
- Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee meeting and decision
June 25
- Ashura
- Banco de Mexico monetary policy decision announcement
- Mozambique Independence Day
- Slovenia National Day
June 26
- 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft
- Egypt vs. Iran 2026 FIFA World Cup ‘Pride Match’ in Seattle
- Madagascar Independence Day
- Azerbaijan Armed Forces Day
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Top Photo: Arsenal lifts the Premier League trophy on May 24, 2026. (Photo: Chensiyuan / Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 4.0)
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