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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Recent violent protests in Bolivia have included nationwide highway blockades and led to dozens of arrests. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jeff Landset discuss some of the concerns fueling the unrest and the possibility for things to take a turn for the worse.
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Week of May 22-29
A Look Ahead
May 23 | Pakistan PM visits China
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will take part in a three-day official visit to China starting Saturday, including a business-to-business forum and expected high-level meetings with Chinese leaders.
What’s happened so far
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced the visit while launching the IBI Pakistan Digital Economy Headquarters in Islamabad, which he described as a new chapter in Pakistan-China digital cooperation. It follows President Asif Ali Zardari’s April 25 visit to China, during which the two sides signed several memoranda of understanding. The back-to-back visits also coincide with a milestone in the bilateral relationship, as the countries marked the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations on May 21.
The impact
Shehbaz’s visit is expected to focus on advancing the next phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and digital economy cooperation, with Pakistan keen to convert previous agreements into finalized projects. The visit also lands at a moment of broader Pakistani diplomatic activity, with Islamabad playing a central role in facilitating U.S.-Iran engagement, a process China has publicly encouraged Pakistan to expand, giving both sides additional regional ground to cover.
May 24 | Cyprus parliamentary election
Cyprus will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, the first in five years.
What’s happened so far
Cypriots will elect 56 of the legislature’s 80 seats, with the remaining seats formerly chosen by Turkish Cypriots unfilled since the 1960s. The center-right Democratic Rally party narrowly edged the far-left Progressive Party in the last election held in 2021.
The impact
Polling indicates at least seven parties will surpass the 3.6 percent vote threshold to enter parliament, though Democratic Rally and Progressive Party are once again projected to emerge as the two frontrunners. Campaigning for the first time in Cyprus will be the upstart Direct Democracy party founded by outspoken European Parliament election winner Fidias Panayiotou, a former YouTuber who will be attempting to influence an election in his native Cyprus for the first time.
May 24 | Italy local elections
Several Italian municipalities will vote for their new local representatives starting Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Two weeks of voting are scheduled to take place across 900 Italian municipalities, which represents only 11 percent of the country’s total municipalities. The places holding votes are only where a council’s term is expiring, either because they’ve served for the maximum years possible or because their government collapsed. On Sunday and Monday, voters will choose among all the candidates running for election. If a mayoral candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, they win, but if no majority is secured, the top two nominees will go to a second round on June 7 and 8.
The impact
Even if only a small percentage of municipalities are holding an election, 20 of them are provincial capitals, such as Messina, Venice, Salerno and Calabria. The elections will serve as a test of favor for some candidates, who often become important national figures after serving as mayors. It will also be a test for next year’s parliamentary elections, as it will measure the popularity of the parties currently in power.
May 25 | Africa Day
Celebrations are planned in several countries on Monday to commemorate Africa Day.
What's happened so far
The day marks the 1963 establishment of the Organisation of African Unity in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The group, which was succeeded by the African Union in 2002, made Africa the first to put a focus on continental unity. Africa Day offers an opportunity for nations to celebrate and reflect on progress made toward priorities such as development and security. In February, the African Union launched this year's theme, "Assuring Water Availability and Safe Sanitation Systems to Achieve Agenda 2063," a strategic framework aimed at transforming the continent.
The impact
Events are scheduled in multiple countries to commemorate Africa Day. Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama last month announced that a new policy will go into effect on Monday that will allow all African nationals to enter the country on free e-visas in a move aimed at promoting further regional integration. A similar move was announced Monday by officials in Togo, who emphasized that it reflected a commitment to Pan-African ideals.
May 25 | Hajj
Muslim followers will travel to Mecca in Saudi Arabia for a sacred pilgrimage starting Monday.
What's happened so far
Hajj is the largest yearly gathering of Muslims worldwide, serving as the fifth pillar of Islam. Every Muslim must take part in this pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime, provided they are physically and mentally able and have the financial means to do so. Millions of Muslims take part in the pilgrimage every year.
The impact
The war in Iran and resulting instability has caused the price of making the journey to increase significantly for worshippers. Rises in the cost of living and jet fuel have made the price of pilgrimage too great for many Muslims around the world. Hajj is set to last between May 25 and May 30.
May 25 | USMCA talks begin
The first official bilateral negotiating round for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is set to take place on Monday, as a July 1 deadline looms for the future of the trade deal.
What's happened so far
In a joint statement last month, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexico Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard confirmed they would hold discussions in Mexico City, with the three countries needing to approve a renewal of the existing agreement by the end of June or signal their intention to leave the pact. President Trump has threatened to pull out of the deal he signed in his first term on several occasions, claiming Canada and Mexico had "taken advantage" of the U.S. and levying various tariffs on both nations (maintaining some exemptions).
The impact
Greer has said talks will likely stretch past the deadline, adding that Mexican officials were "being quite pragmatic," while negotiations with Canada were "more challenging." If all sides come to an agreement, the USMCA would remain in force until 2036, but if no deal can be reached, the pact would enter an annual review cycle.
May 26 | Texas election runoff
Party runoff elections will be held across Texas on Tuesday after candidates failed to win majorities in state primaries. Among the runoffs is the Republican race to decide who will contest the U.S. Senate seat in November's midterms.
What's happened so far
Four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced from the first-round of voting in March, setting the stage for two months of bitterly contested campaigning that has seen them run bruising ads against each other. Runoffs for party nominations in the Texas attorney general and lieutenant governor races are also in play. President Donald Trump has backed more than 130 candidates across Texas, including Paxton in a last-ditch effort, much to the chagrin of many leaders within the GOP.
The impact
The winner of the runoff will advance to face Democratic nominee James Talarico in what is expected to be one of the most expensive and closely watched elections in Senate history, as Democrats attempt to flip Texas blue. Recent polling shows a hotly contested battle for the state, with Talarico running neck-and-neck with either Republican.
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May 29 | Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
Singapore will host the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier security forum, starting Friday.
What's happened so far
The three-day forum will bring together defense ministers, military chiefs and senior security officials from across Asia, Europe and North America to hold discussions focused on regional deterrence, maritime security and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. Vietnamese President To Lam is expected to deliver the keynote address to open the summit, highlighting the country's growing strategic importance in the region.
The impact
This year's Dialogue comes amid a growing uncertainty around U.S.-China relations, tensions between China and Taiwan as well as unrest in the South China Sea. Analysts will be on a close watch for China's delegation after last year's summit saw the Chinese defense minister skip the event and send a lower-level academic delegation instead. Singapore's defense ministry described the summit as an increasingly important venue for strategic dialogue amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.
What Else Matters
Bolivia protests
The economic crisis engulfing Bolivia continues to manifest in dangerous protests and crippling blockades on dozens of highways. Some are even calling for President Rodrigo Paz to step down, despite only being in office a few months. His centrist policies have inflamed citizens' anger, especially the elimination of fuel subsidies and changing of mortgage laws for farms. Major unions in the country, especially the main trade union, Central Obrera Boliviana, and the mining unions, have taken to the streets, which has led to violence and dozens of arrests. The blockades have also stopped food and medicine from getting to key areas of the country, causing the deaths of at least four people, according to the Bolivian government. Police have since opened humanitarian corridors to facilitate the flow of essential supplies.
Watch for: Former President Evo Morales is playing a key role in the protests. The country's first indigenous socialist leader is inflaming the unions and citizens still loyal to him. It's happening on the backdrop of the start of his sex trafficking trial, where he's accused of fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl while in office. He faces 20 years behind bars. Some Bolivian officials are accusing Morales of trying to destabilize the government. Any attempt to bring him into custody, whether made with or without the help of the United States, could kick off even larger and more violent protests.
Forecast podcast: Bolivia gripped by nationwide protests as it faces worst economic crisis in decades
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jeff Landset discuss the protests spreading across Bolivia amid their worst economic crisis in decades, plus more on an election in Cyprus, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia, talks on a U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, and the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Jeff Landset, Alex Moore, Michael Archer, Joe Veyera, and Awais Ahmad. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Ebola outbreak
What began in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has become a worldwide concern following the World Health Organization's declaration of a global health emergency for Ebola on May 18. This latest Ebola surge is driven by the relatively new Bundibugyo virus, which was first identified in 2007. More than 500 suspected cases and 130 deaths have been linked to the emergency so far with no approved vaccine to handle the strain.
Watch for: WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said he was "deeply concerned about the scale and speed of the epidemic." On Sunday, an American working in the region tested positive for the Bundibugyo strain after treating patients, with the United States invoking a Title 42 order the next day, effectively limiting persons without U.S. passports who have been in Uganda, DRC and South Sudan in the previous 21 days from entering the country. The law also allows for heightened screening, contact tracing and coordination with hospitals nationwide. African nations like Uganda, Rwanda and Sierra Leone have already implemented enhanced screening and border controls. The WHO has recommended the implementation of national emergency mechanisms in places where the virus is active. Currently, the CDC emphasizes that risk remains low in the United States. The American who tested positive has been relocated to facilities in Germany.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
May 22–29
May 24
- Cyprus parliamentary election
May 25
- Africa Day
- American Music Awards in Las Vegas
- Hajj
- Mexico expects formal USMCA talks to start
May 26
- Texas election runoff
May 27
- Expanded Terminal 2 at Hong Kong International Airport will commence operations
May 29
- Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
- Pam Bondi to testify in House Oversight Committee’s Epstein investigation
- Ottawa to begin $8.5 billion rollout for Ontario First Nations to reclaim child welfare
- Alberta Federation of Labour calls for provincewide day of protest
May 30–June 5
May 30
- Champions League final
- Malta parliamentary elections
May 31
- Colombian presidential election
- Guinea legislative and municipal elections
- Hungary’s Premier-elect Magyar sets deadline for senior officials to resign
- ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons resigns
June 1
- Ethiopia general election
June 2
- Primary elections in Iowa, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota
June 3
- South Korean local election
- Portugal general strike
June 5
- Spanish Grand Prix
June 6–12
June 7
- Armenian parliamentary elections
- Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan, Assembly general election
June 9
- Primary elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina
June 11
- Mexico transporters strike
- World Cup begins
June 13–19
June 13
- UK King’s Birthday Trooping the Colour
June 14
- G7 Leaders Summit in France
June 18
- US Open begins (golf)
June 19
- Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring
Top photo: Aerial view of pilgrims gathered around the Kaaba in Mecca during the Hajj pilgrimage. (Konevi / Pexels)
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