Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The Forecast podcast is off this week.
Week of March 27-April 3
A Look Ahead
March 26 | Philippines transport strike
On Thursday, more than 20 transport groups will begin a strike in the Philippines calling for government intervention to curb surging fuel prices caused by the conflict in Iran.
What’s happened so far
The head of the national federation of public transport associations called for new protest action this week following another transport strike earlier this month. The group is calling for urgent government intervention to control fuel prices and has demanded, among other measures, the removal of taxes on petroleum products and the introduction of a fuel price cap. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed a law Wednesday that authorizes him to suspend or reduce the tax on petroleum products, a day after he declared an energy emergency. It’s unclear whether those actions will curb the planned strike.
The impact
Tens of thousands of people participated in the previous strike and more are expected in the planned strike this week as frustration grows over the government’s perceived inaction over increasing fuel prices. Mass disruption to transport infrastructure is expected nationwide with potential for further strikes if the government fails to curb price hikes.
March 27 | TSA agents set to miss a second full paycheck
TSA agents across the United States are feeling the financial strain as the ongoing funding battle over the Department of Homeland Security sees many poised to miss a second full paycheck this Friday.
What’s happened so far
Wait times at security lines at airports across the United States continue to grow amid a funding battle for the DHS that has already seen TSA agents miss one full paycheck. Mass call outs have hamstrung airports, leading to significant delays for customers and airlines. Unless Congress acts, this could lead to further impacts, as DHS officials call the situation “dire” for employees.
The impact
More than 450 TSA employees have already quit their jobs with 11.6 percent of workers calling out this past Sunday. Call out rates have topped 40 percent at airports like Houston’s William P. Hobby Airport and similar rates have been seen at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. To assist, the Trump administration has deployed Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to airports despite unclear roles. While this drags out, Republicans have a plan to fund at least TSA workers by the weekend, though support from President Donald Trump is still up in the air.
March 28 | No Kings protests
Demonstrators are expected to gather across the United States on Saturday for the third round of No Kings protests since President Donald Trump took office.
What’s happened so far
Organizers estimate that 5 million people participated in the more than 2,000 events held nationwide last June as part of the first No Kings demonstrations, which were organized “to reject corrupt, authoritarian politics in the United States.” Just four months later, an estimated 7 million people gathered for the second round of No Kings protests in some 2,700 demonstrations across all 50 states.
The impact
Millions of people are expected to participate in the over 3,100 local No Kings demonstrations scheduled for Saturday in what is predicted to be one of the largest domestic political protests in U.S. history. Earlier No Kings demonstrations have been largely peaceful, though authorities in several municipalities have announced precautionary road closures in anticipation of expected crowds. For his part, Trump has criticized the protests as a “joke.”
March 28 | Indonesia to ban social media use for children under 16
Indonesia is the latest country to introduce age limits on social media, with the ban coming into force on Saturday.
What's happened so far
Indonesia’s communications and digital affairs minister announced earlier this month that the ban will be gradual and will start with the most “high risk” platforms, including YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, X, Bigo Live and Roblox. So far, X has confirmed it won’t allow users under 16 in its platform. In the announcement, the minister explained the decision was aimed at protecting children from exposure to pornography, cyberbullying, online fraud and addiction.
The impact
Authorities have said Indonesia will become "the first non-Western country to delay children's access to digital spaces according to age" once the ban comes into place. While many welcome the move, others worry about implementation. In countries such as Australia, where a similar ban has come into force, children have found ways to get around it, including using fake birthdays to open new accounts or using VPNs.
March 30 | Air China resumes direct flights to North Korea
China’s flagship air carrier will resume direct flights to North Korea on Monday.
What's happened so far
Cross-border flights between China and North Korea have been halted for six years after initially shuttering during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. Now, weekly flights from Beijing and Pyongyang are set to resume after the long hiatus. The news also follows the resumption of passenger train services between Beijing and Pyongyang for the first time in six years this month.
The impact
The resumption of transportation links will likely lead to an increase in tightly-controlled tourism to Pyongyang with Beijing serving as the predominant launch point for foreigners to access North Korea. Renewed transit links also underscore a warming of the at-times fraught relationship between China’s President Xi Jinping and North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un, with bilateral trade increasing as strategic ties once again deepen between North Korea and China.
April 1 | NASA Artemis II moon launch
A window will open Wednesday for NASA to launch its Artemis II mission that will see the space agency return to the Moon for the first time in 50 years.
What's happened so far
The last human moon landing took place in 1972 as the crew of NASA’s Apollo 17 carried out missions on the surface and returned to Earth. Though this mission will not land astronauts on the surface of the moon, they will fly around it in the furthest and fastest crewed space mission to date. NASA abandoned a March 2026 launch attempt following a problem with the rocket’s helium system, pushing the window into early April. The SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft have been successfully moved to the launch pad, with the four-person crew in quarantine ahead of launch.
The impact
If conditions permit, NASA’s Artemis II SLS rocket and the Orion spacecraft are expected to lift off from Launch Pad 39B at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center during the launch window, propelling four astronauts, including three Americans and one Canadian, into orbit. From there, they will embark on a 10-day mission that will see them fly around the Moon and return to Earth. If all goes well, NASA expects humans to return to the lunar surface with the Artemis IV mission scheduled for 2028.
April 2 | Board votes on White House construction
The White House ballroom project will be put to a vote Thursday.
What's happened so far
Washington’s National Capitol Planning Commission will put President Donald Trump’s proposed changes to the White House to a vote at a hearing next week. Trump’s proposal to fundamentally alter the architecture of the White House includes a 90,000-square foot ballroom that would replace the East Wing of the White House, which was demolished last fall.
The impact
The ballroom proposal has not been without controversy and federal lawsuits have been filed by architectural preservationists attempting to block the East Wing ballroom expansion as well as other Trump architectural proposals impacting sites such as the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts. Trump also stacked the commissions tasked with voting on the changes with loyalists, including the commission set to vote next week, though the final vote was still delayed due to the massive amount of public backlash to the proposed changes received.
What Else Matters
LaGuardia crash
An investigation is ongoing after an Air Canada Express jet struck a fire truck upon landing at LaGuardia Airport in New York on Sunday night, killing both pilots and sending more than 40 people to the hospital. Delays and cancellations have continued throughout the week as crews continue work at the crash scene, with more than 300 flights in and out of LaGuardia scrapped on Wednesday. A federal notice says the runway where the collision occurred will remain closed until at least Friday morning.
Watch for: Ongoing concerns over staffing levels at air traffic control towers have returned to the forefront following the fatal crash, while investigators probe why a runway safety system failed to issue an alert in the moments leading up to impact. Meanwhile, Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau is under fire for recording his condolence video in English only, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying it showed a "lack of judgment" and "lack of compassion" for the victims and lawmakers from Quebec calling for his resignation.
Iran war
The United States-Israeli war with Iran is closing its first month with little sign of reaching a conclusion, despite President Donald Trump’s claims of victory and achieving its aims. In addition to rising death tolls in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Israel and Arab Gulf countries, and severe damage to energy and transportation infrastructure, concerns are rising about global economic repercussions that may take years to repair.
Watch for: The United States is sending thousands of additional troops to the region in preparation for a possible ground invasion of Iran and an attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, which has delivered on past retaliatory threats, is warning it will respond by attacking more energy and water-desalination assets in Arab Gulf nations hosting U.S. troops in addition to Bab al-Mandab Strait in the southern Red Sea. Despite reports of ceasefire negotiations through regional mediators, such as Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt, the sides appear far apart on demands to end the conflict threatening to spread to new fronts in Iraq, Yemen and draw the first direct military action from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
March 26-April 3
March 26
- 14th WTO Ministerial Conference
- Philippines transport strike
March 27
- TSA misses second paycheck due to shutdown
March 28
- No Kings protests
- Indonesia to ban social media use for children under 16
March 30
- Air China to resume direct flights to North Korea
April 1
- India begins first phase of 2027 Census
- NASA Artemis II moon launch
April 2
- Passover
- Board votes on White House construction
April 4-10
April 4
- Maldives election and referendum
April 6
- The Masters tournament in Augusta, Ga.
- March Madness championship game
April 10
- Djibouti election
April 11-17
April 12
- Hungary parliamentary election
- Peru general elections
- Paris marathon
- Benin presidential election
- Easter
April 13
- IMF & World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
- Pope Leo visits Africa
April 18-24
April 19
- Bulgaria parliamentary elections
April 20
- Paris cybercrime unit summons Elon Musk for hearing on X
- Boston marathon
April 23
- NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, Pa.
Thanks for reading! If you'd like the Factal Forecast in your inbox, you can sign up for free.
Top photo: Demonstrators gather on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., for the March for Democracy in February 2026. On Saturday, protesters will hold the second No Kings events of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term. (Photo: Hillel Steinberg / Flickr / CC SA 4.0)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.