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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The United Nations Security Council passed a U.S.-drafted ceasefire plan for Gaza on Monday. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss reactions to the plan and the uncertainty that remains as deadly ceasefire violations continue.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Nov. 21-28
A Look Ahead
Nov. 22 | G20 in Johannesburg
World leaders will gather in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Saturday for this year’s annual G20 meeting, with one notable exception.
What’s happened so far
The annual G20 summit, which started in 1999, is a chance for leaders from the world’s largest economies as well as the European Union and African Union to meet in person and discuss issues related to global security, economic development and a range of other topics. It has evolved from a crisis-management forum to a key opportunity for world leaders to meet face-to-face. This year’s attendees include member nations, as well as a number of other invited nations including Egypt, Norway and New Zealand. International organizations such as the World Bank and WTO will also be present. U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the summit, saying the United States would not send representation, citing allegations of persecution against white South Africans, a criticism flatly rejected by the country’s government and prominent white South Africans.
The impact
Global economic growth, continued inequality and food insecurity, implementation of AI and ongoing conflicts including Ukraine are likely to top the list of discussion topics at the summit. However, the lack of participation from the United States, the world’s largest economy, has led to fears that the summit will be ineffective.
Nov. 23 | Guinea-Bissau election
Guinea-Bissau will elect its new president on Sunday in an election marred by another recent coup attempt.
What’s happened so far
The vote has so far been involved in controversy, after the main opposition party African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) was disqualified from running, accused of having submitted its candidacy late. The opposition has also claimed President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s term in office expired in February, while the Supreme Court ruled it ended in September. One day before the start of the election campaign, Guinea-Bissau’s armed forces announced an alleged coup attempt involving senior officers.
The impact
This election marks the first time PAIGC will not run since the country’s independence from Portugal in 1974. Embalo is expected to win reelection, which will likely cause more instability as opposition parties have refused to recognize him as president in the past. Monitoring of the election has also had its challenges, after a ECOWAS mission team deployed to help resolve election disputes left in March after the president reportedly threatened to expel it. Several media outlets had also been recently ousted from the country.
Nov. 24 | Belgium rail, public sector and national strike
A three-day national strike is expected to kick off Monday in Belgium as part of what organizers are calling a “November Appeal.”
What’s happened so far
The strike is planned weeks after tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered across Brussels for a general strike in protest of planned government reforms. The Oct. 14 protest was mostly peaceful, although dozens of people were arrested amid reported riots on the sidelines of the demonstration. Tear gas and water cannons were deployed, and several people were injured. Organizers have said that a lack of response from the government following the Oct. 14 protests prompted this latest action.
The impact
Organizers say November’s strike actions will begin Monday, with public transportation workers called to strike. Rail services are expected to be impacted beginning at 10 p.m. local time Sunday. On Tuesday, workers in public services will be called to join the strike, with employees across all sectors invited for the final day of action on Wednesday. The strike could impact postal service in the country, although unions have reportedly agreed to limit impacts on that sector as much as possible.
Nov. 24 | Germany to resume arms exports to Israel
Germany is set to lift an order suspending certain arms shipments to Israel on Monday, contingent on the continuing ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
What's happened so far
Between 2020 and 2024, Germany accounted for 33% of Israel’s arms imports, second only to the United States. Germany suspended arms exports to Israel in August after reviewing Israel’s compliance with international humanitarian law in Gaza. On Monday, government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said the government will follow case-by-case reviews when deciding whether to halt shipments in the future.
The impact
Despite the UN, Amnesty International and other international institutions concluding that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, Germany has remained a staunch supporter of Israel both diplomatically and militarily. The lifting of restrictions on certain arms exports means Germany may resume exporting components for Merkava tanks as well as frigates and torpedoes, all of which Germany frequently exported to Israel between 2020 and 2024.
Nov. 24 | Mexican trucker and farmer national strike
Groups representing farmers and truckers in Mexico have threatened a nationwide strike on Monday if their latest demands aren't met.
What's happened so far
The National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM) announced its plans for a day of action across the country, including road blockades, earlier this month, claiming the government has been unwilling to address structural issues impacting farmers. Meanwhile, the group has found a willing partner in the Association of National Transporters (ANTAC), who want steps taken to address insecurity truckers face on the nation's highways.
The impact
Highways and toll plazas across Mexico were blocked by protesting farmers in late October, leaving motorists stranded and traffic at a standstill, with the agriculture ministry ultimately agreeing to new subsidies to support corn growers. Now, the group wants the attorney general's office to drop its investigation into approximately 60 farmers that participated in those blockades, threatening to take to the streets again.
Nov. 26 | EU-Central Asia Economic Forum
Representatives of Central Asian countries and the European bloc will gather in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on Wednesday to discuss deepening ties on the backdrop of Russia’s weakening influence in the region.
What's happened so far
This is the latest in several high level meetings between EU delegations and representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan this year. In April, the first EU-Central Asia summit took place in Uzbekistan, during which parties agreed to further explore cooperation in security, economic, climate and energy sectors.
The impact
The Central Asian nations have traditionally fostered close ties with Moscow and, while that relationship remains strong, the war in Ukraine has shifted the Kremlin’s attention away from the region. Western powers and China are now looking to take advantage of the situation, with Beijing, Washington and Brussels all conducting high-level meetings with Central Asian leadership this year. Deepening ties in Moscow’s backyard will no doubt ring alarm bells at the Kremlin, especially given that one of the EU’s stated goals is the prevention of sanctions circumvention in the region.
What Else Matters
Bangladesh unrest
A war crimes tribunal officially sentenced Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death this week for her role in the crackdown on last year’s student protests that left hundreds of people dead. The court found she ordered the killings through the use of drones, helicopters and lethal weapons. Hasina called the verdict “biased and politically motivated” while in exile in India. During the trial, Dhaka saw several incidents of unrest, with dozens of arson fires and explosions allegedly committed by supporters of her Awami League party.
Watch for: This verdict comes shortly before a consequential parliamentary election in which Hasina’s party has been banned from participating. That could lead to even more protests from Awami League members. It also puts a strain on the relationship between Bangladesh and India. Hasina’s son says India will never extradite her and that could create an even bigger rift between the two countries who have already hit a diplomatic low point.
UN Security Council Vote on Gaza
The United Nations’ Security Council approved the U.S.-proposed ceasefire plan for Gaza on Monday, which includes the deployment of an international force. Although details of what parties would make up this so-called stabilization force remain unclear, it would not be a UN body and would work with Israel and Egypt to demilitarize Gaza and train a Palestinian security force. The plan would also back a “Board of Peace,” tasked with overseeing legal authority and security issues in the Palestinian enclave, while also overseeing reconstruction efforts.
Watch for: Praised by U.S. President Donald Trump as a “historic vote,” it has been received by both Israel and Hamas with skepticism. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated his opposition to a Palestinian state, while Hamas has rejected the plan, arguing it fails to meet the humanitarian demands and rights of the Palestinian people. The resolution has authorized for a mandate until the end of 2027, but no clear timeline has been established on the next steps needed to move the current ceasefire in Gaza into the next stage. Clarification is needed vis-a-vis the parties who will form part of these intermediate organizations, with critics skeptical of their efficacy in an environment where neither party appears to welcome the decision.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Nov. 21-28
Nov. 21
- FIFA Futsal Women's World Cup in Pasig, Philippines
Nov. 22
- G20 Summit in Johannesburg
Nov. 23
- Guinea-Bissau election
- Republika Srpska presidential election
Nov. 24
- Strike action against government reform plans in Belgium
- Mexican truckers and farmers national strike
- Egypt parliamentary elections phase 2
- Germany to resume arms exports to Israel
Nov. 26
- EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Nov. 29-Dec. 5
Nov. 30
- Kyrgyzstan parliament snap elections
- Honduras presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 3
- UK State Visit for German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Dec. 5
- 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit begins
- World Cup draw in Washington, D.C.
Dec. 6-12
Dec. 7
- Hong Kong legislative elections
Dec. 9
- SEA Games in Thailand
Dec. 10
- Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
Dec. 11
- Portugal general strike
Dec. 13-19
Dec. 13
- Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Tbilisi, Georgia
Dec. 14
- Chile presidential runoff
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Top Photo: World leaders listen to a speaker during a working lunch at the G20 Summit Saturday, Dec. 1, 2018, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
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