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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least nine people were killed Monday when a car exploded near India’s historic Red Fort in capital New Delhi. On Tuesday, a suicide bombing hit Islamabad, Pakistan. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the Indian government’s declaration of a terrorist attack and fears of rising regional tensions.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Nov. 14-21
A Look Ahead
Nov. 15 | Deadline to end Montreal transit strike
Montreal’s public transit operator is seeking a deal with striking workers by Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Two separate groups have been on strike this month in Montreal with maintenance workers as well as bus drivers and metro operators engaging in industrial action amid contract disputes. Bus and metro operators threatened another strike on Nov. 15 and 16 barring progress made in contract negotiations after the group’s day-long strike earlier this month marked the first in 38 years.
The impact
The strikes coincide with a new law entering into force on Dec. 1 that gives Quebec provincial authorities the power to end strikes that harm the public good, though it remains unclear if a deal will be reached before then and if provincial authorities will opt to trigger this option. Quebec Labour Minister Jean Boulet, however, has indicated a willingness to speed up the implementation of the new law in order to force a resolution of the labor dispute.
Nov. 16 | Chile elections
Voters across Chile on Sunday will choose the country’s next president and determine the makeup of its legislature.
What’s happened so far
Incumbent president Gabriel Boric was barred from seeking reelection due to term limits, having been elected as the country’s youngest leader on a left-wing platform in 2021. He is backing former minister Jeannette Jara, who is running with the support of a center-left coalition and is up against a field of candidates, including lawyer and ultraconservative politician José Antonio Kast who has seen a surge of support. Polling shows Jara leading a crowded field, but falling short of absolute majority. If none of the candidates in the presidential vote secure more than 50 percent of the vote, the two frontrunners will proceed to a December runoff in a race that could see a surging right consolidate and ride a populist wave to victory. Voters will also determine the makeup of the 155-seat Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the National Congress of Chile, as well as half of the seats in the Senate.
The impact
Following a likely runoff vote, the winner will be inaugurated as president of Chile in March 2026 and will have to deal with the new makeup of the country’s parliament in order to implement their agenda.
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Nov. 16 | Ecuador holds referendum on constitution
Ecuador will hold a referendum on two provisions in its constitution on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Ecuador’s electoral council approved a request from President Daniel Noboa on Sept. 20 to schedule a referendum on two key amendments to the country’s constitution. Ecuadorians will vote on whether to remove the prohibition on foreign military bases in the country and whether the state should retain an obligation to provide funding for political parties.
The impact
Noboa said he intends to combat drug trafficking cartels and gangs with the help of the United States and European countries. Noboa’s vision closely aligns with a key tenet of the Trump administration’s plan to combat drug trafficking in South America. Should both referendums pass, the United States could establish military bases in Ecuador to combat drug trafficking organizations, and political parties could struggle to establish themselves or grow in absence of state-sponsored funding.
Nov. 18 | Denmark local elections
Denmark will hold elections for its local and regional councils on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Every four years, on the third Tuesday of November, Denmark holds simultaneous elections across its 98 municipalities and four regions. For the first time, 47 members will also be elected from the Region of Eastern Denmark – a newly formed region consisting of the Capital Region of Copenhagen and the Zealand Region, which will formally be established on Jan. 1, 2027.
The impact
Voters will elect the thousands of regional and local councillors expected to represent the country for the 2026-2029 term. Polls suggest the incumbent Social Democrats are expected to again net the most votes. The Green Party headed by Pia Olsen Dyhr, however, is expected to make significant gains in the municipal elections, paving the way for a possibly larger voter base when the general elections are held next year.
Nov. 18 | Egyptian election result announcement
Results of the first phase in Egypt’s parliamentary election will be announced on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Earlier this week Egypt held voting for the regions under phase 1, including Alexandria and most of the country’s southern provinces. The voting was divided by independent candidates and electoral lists, consisting of closed parties pre-approved by the government. Low turnout was expected, highlighting voter apathy in an environment marred by authoritarian rule and political oppression. But for the more than 111 million Egyptians, many of whom are struggling with a rising cost of living, economy and access to health are among the main issues that drove them to the polls.
The impact
If the first phase requires run-offs, voting will be held in those regions on Dec. 3 and 4. Analysts, however, suggest the contest was already decided before the election days, with ministries and security officials having the power to veto who was allowed to run. Although President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is technically on his third and final term, many believe the next pro-government parliamentarians will allow for a key change in the constitution to allow him to extend his term until after 2030.
Nov. 18 | Saudi crown prince visits White House
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Saudi Arabia has long been one of the largest buyers of U.S. arms, with the two countries signing a large defense package during Trump’s visit in Riyadh in May worth $142 billion. For decades, the Gulf nation has relied on Washington for security in exchange for the kingdom’s oil, irrespective of allegations of human rights abuses, including the March 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
The impact
Trump said in an interview with CBS News’s 60 Minutes that Saudi Arabia will “ultimately” join the so-called Abraham Accords, the latest after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalized relations with Israel back in 2020. The Saudis, however, have said that any deal with Israel will need to be dependent on a clear path for a Palestinian state, alongside Israel, and therefore unlikely to take form at this stage given the continuing Israeli occupation and siege of Palestinian land. The two leaders will more likely, however, announce the signing of a widely anticipated defense package.
What Else Matters
Indian Cabinet calls New Delhi blast "terrorist-incident"
Indian authorities continue to investigate after a car exploded near New Delhi’s Red Fort Metro on Nov. 10, killing at least nine people and injuring more. A day later, the investigation was taken over by India’s counter-terror National Investigation Agency. Even though the probe is incomplete, the cabinet passed a resolution condemning the Delhi blast as a “terrorist-incident,” the first public confirmation of an attack following widespread speculation by local media.
Watch for: Over the coming days, Indian authorities are expected to release more information through official and unofficial channels about the attack and suspects. The cabinet referred to the perpetrators as “anti-national forces,” without providing clarity on the origin of the suspected actors. Indian media continue to connect the attack with a group of white-collar professionals, including doctors from Indian-administered Kashmir, allegedly working as militant actors. These reports come without official sources confirming the same. Should the evidence show that the deadly blast in New Delhi can be linked to Kashmiri insurgents or Pakistan-backed militants, expect heightened tensions along the border with Pakistan and more Indian military activity in Indian-administered Kashmir. A day after the Delhi blast, a deadly suicide attack ripped through an Islamabad court and soon after Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif blamed Indian proxies, accusing New Delhi of sponsoring terrorism in the region. In the worst-case scenario, expect to see a return to cross-border strikes between India and Pakistan, similar to those one in May.
U.S. government shutdown ends
The U.S. government is reopening after its longest shutdown in history. The stalemate in Congress ended after eight Democratic senators agreed to join Republicans on a deal on Sunday night. Negotiating lawmakers said the ongoing pain while the government was shut down led to the change of heart. The shutdown affected the paychecks of approximately 3 million people thanks to furloughs for some workers and withheld pay from others. It also led to the cancellation of thousands of flights and uncertainty for more than 40 million people participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Watch for: Most Democrats had said they would not pass a budget if it didn’t include an extension of subsidies for Obamacare, thus sparking anger when the deal only included a promise to hold a vote to extend them. It’s led to some speculation that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer could face a challenge from within his own party. Officials have also said flight cancellations will continue despite the reopening of the government because of schedule and staffing readjustments. That may trickle into the Thanksgiving holiday travel period, which is expected to break records this year.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 14-21
Nov. 15
- Deadline to end Montreal transit strike
Nov. 16
- Chilean presidential and parliamentary elections
- Ecuador referendum
Nov. 18
- Egypt parliamentary elections results
- Denmark elections
- Saudi crown prince visits White House
Nov. 20
- Tonga elections
Nov. 21
- FIFA Futsal Women's World Cup in Pasig, Philippines
Nov. 22-28
Nov. 22
- G20 Summit in Johannesburg
Nov. 23
- Guinea-Bissau election
- Republika Srpska presidential election
Nov. 24
- Strike action against government reform plans in Belgium
Nov. 26
- EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Nov. 29-Dec. 5
Nov. 30
- Kyrgyzstan parliament snap elections
- Honduras presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 3
- UK State Visit for German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Dec. 5
- 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit begins
Dec. 6-12
Dec. 7
- Hong Kong legislative elections
Dec. 9
- SEA Games in Thailand
Dec. 10
- Social media ban for teenagers in Australia
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Top photo: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pictured during his March 2018 visit to the White House, will meet with President Donald Trump next week. (Photo: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
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