Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of July 31-Aug. 7
A Look Ahead
Aug. 1 | Venezuela’s interim government begins talks with opposition
The interim Venezuelan government led by Delcy Rodríguez will host talks with the opposition starting Saturday as the country seeks a “democratic transition” after the U.S. intervention in the country earlier this year.
What’s happened so far
The U.S. administration launched an operation in January that surprised the entire world, removing President Nicolas Maduro from the country and detaining him on American soil. At the time, Rodríguez, the former vice president, was appointed to replace Maduro. U.S. President Donald Trump promised then that the country would be seeking a democratic transition and a path toward new elections.
The impact
The announcement that the opposition will be led by Dinorah Figuera, who recently returned to the country after living in exile in Spain since 2018, surprised many, as Nobel Prize winner and main opposition figure María Corina Machado was the most obvious person to lead the talks. Figuera said she returned to Caracas at the invitation of the U.S. State Department, just one week after a coalition of parties had decided Machado would take charge of the negotiations. The country has since faced more adversity, with the June earthquakes that left more than 5,500 dead and a path of destruction. With so many challenges to overcome, agreeing on a date for new elections is likely to be a difficult task.
Aug. 3 | Senegal’s Grand Magal of Touba Islamic pilgrimage
The annual Grand Magal pilgrimage will take place in Touba, Senegal, on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The event draws millions of pilgrims annually, with attendees largely made up of members of the Mourdie Brotherhood, one of four Sufi Islamic orders in the country. The date of the event corresponds with the 18th day of Safar, the second month in the Islamic calendar and serves as a day to celebrate the life of the order’s founder Amadou Bamba.
The impact
Free healthcare and shuttle services have been ensured for the duration of the pilgrimage and the national electricity company has strengthened its infrastructure to ensure reliable service. Responding to logistical challenges faced in 2025, the organizers of the Grand Magal have laid out a plan that outlines a coordinated strategy for managing mobility during the pilgrimage this year, including centralized coordination, traffic management, clear institutional roles and digital communication.
Aug. 4 | Anniversary of Beirut port explosion
Lebanon will observe a day of mourning on Tuesday to mark the sixth anniversary of the deadly 2020 port explosion.
What’s happened so far
On Aug. 4, 2020, a huge explosion tore through the port of Beirut, killing more than 200 people and injuring a further 6,500. The explosion devastated Lebanon and was one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in history. The event caused between $3.8 and $4.6 billion in damage and displaced more than 300,000 people. The blast was caused after a fire started in a warehouse storing more than 2,500 tons of ammonium nitrate.
The impact
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam issued a memorandum declaring Aug. 4 a day of national mourning, including adjustments of media programming and lowering flags at public buildings. The day will offer the Lebanese population a moment to mourn the people lost, injured or impacted by the explosion.
Aug. 4 | Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome
Delegations from Israel and Lebanon are set to meet in Rome on Tuesday to further U.S.-sponsored efforts aimed at ending armed hostilities in Lebanon. The precursor meetings in Washington were the first direct diplomatic contact between the countries in decades.
What’s happened so far
A ceasefire declared in April seems to have, for the most part, held despite regular attacks across the border. The deal hinges on Lebanon’s ability, with international support, to suppress Hezbollah. To that end, Israel surrendered territory it held to the Lebanese military for the first time earlier this month in a process that will ideally serve as a model for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
The impact
The best case is that the deal works as intended: Lebanese attempts to disarm Hezbollah succeed, Israel withdraws, and hostilities gradually taper off. But the recommencement this March of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah underscores the fragility of the diplomatic process. Those March attacks marked the formal end of what had seemed a stable, if not really peaceful, denouement to the war that began in 2023. The risk is ever-present that a similar outcome could befall whatever agreement results from these talks, either by one side claiming the other has failed to carry out its responsibilities or as an apparent reaction to global events as happened earlier this year.
Aug. 4 | Primaries in Washington, Michigan, Missouri, Kansas and Virginia
Voters across five states will cast ballots Tuesday in races that will shape the November U.S. midterm elections.
What’s happened so far
The primary calendar shifts to five states on Tuesday as candidates seek to secure their place on November’s ballot. In Washington state and Missouri, voters will choose candidates in House primaries, while in Kansas and Michigan they will vote in a broader slate of contests for the Senate, House, governor, attorney general and secretary of state. Voters in Virginia will choose Senate and House nominees.
The impact
Ahead of November’s midterm elections, the results may offer an early measure of party support in each state and the types of candidates attracting support. For Democrats, observers will be watching whether self-described democratic socialist candidates continue to gain traction. For Republicans, attention will focus on how closely candidates align themselves with President Donald Trump and whether his endorsement remains a decisive factor in primary races.
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Aug. 5 | Bangladesh observes July Mass Uprising Day
Bangladesh on Wednesday will mark the second anniversary of the student-led uprising that culminated in former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and exile in 2024.
What’s happened so far
What began as student protests against public-sector job quotas evolved into a nationwide anti-government movement after a deadly security crackdown in July 2024. Hasina resigned and fled to India on Aug. 5, 2024, concluding her 15-year rule. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus took power and later designated Aug. 5 as an annual public holiday commemorating the uprising.
The impact
The anniversary is likely to be both a national commemoration and a major political event. Authorities are expected to hold official ceremonies honoring those killed during the uprising, while security is likely to be heightened around commemorative events. The anniversary will also test the government’s ability to manage lingering political divisions over the legacy of the 2024 uprising, particularly as supporters of the banned Awami League continue to reject the government’s narrative.
Aug. 7 | Colombian presidential inauguration
Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella will upend tradition and be inaugurated in the south of the country on Friday.
What’s happened so far
Colombia’s conservative De la Espriella, spurred on by endorsements from U.S. President Donald Trump, is set to be inaugurated Friday in Cali, the main city of Valle del Cauca and one deeply exposed to gang and militant warfare in the country. In a break from custom, the event will take place there instead of Bogota’s Plaza de Bolivar or its original location at a military garrison in Popayan. The ceremony is just the beginning of Espriella’s reforms as his government aims to move away from the policies of the Pacto Historico on the left and outgoing President Gustavo Petro, who has clashed with the incoming administration over the venue.
The impact
The move of venue is a statement regarding the future of Colombia, as De la Espriella’s platform heavily focuses on the impacts of the military. The incoming leader favors an El Salvadorean-style policy toward militant groups, promising an end to negotiations and an uptick in military interventions. This movement toward the right comes despite a close electoral victory, as roughly half voted to extend the Paz-total like policies of Petro and earlier candidate Ivan Cepeda. Abelardo De La Espriella is an outsider to the political establishment. Before running for and winning the presidency, the new president was a lawyer in the murky world of global drug trafficking.
What Else Matters
Earthquake in Japan’s Kumamoto prefecture
A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck just south of Kumamoto, Japan, on Tuesday, toppling buildings and damaging roads across the Kyushu region’s third-largest city. The tremor triggered major collapses at a shopping mall and a factory. At least 12 deaths have been confirmed so far, and dozens of people injured, with search and rescue ongoing for trapped or missing people. Several factories also temporarily suspended operations, but major public facilities or infrastructure were not damaged, including three nearby nuclear power plants.
Watch for: Water, power and gas supplies have been disrupted in areas around the epicenter amid an ongoing heat wave, increasing risks for already-vulnerable residents affected by the quake. Japan’s national meteorological agency also warns that there will be a higher risk than usual of a similarly large tremor in the coming week.
Heat waves and wildfires in France and Spain
Emergency services are struggling to contain large wildfires sweeping across swathes of France and Spain as temperatures in Western Europe continue to surge. France’s Bordeaux and Spain’s Madrid regions have seen the most destructive blazes that triggered the evacuation of more than 200,000 people with hundreds of buildings destroyed. French President Macron called the wildfire raging near the city of Bordeaux completely unprecedented, describing the situation as France’s worst fire-related crisis since World War II. Meanwhile, in Spain, the emergency services have gained ground on the fires affecting Madrid and Ávila, allowing some evacuated residents to return home.
Watch for: The beginning of the week brought a brief respite from high temperatures, but France and Spain have issued fresh warnings as heat wave conditions have now returned to large parts of both countries, further hampering efforts to bring the fires under control and triggering new outbreaks and flare-ups. The UN warned the “record-breaking wildfires” in France and Spain are evidence of the “awful costs of this climate crisis” and highlighted the detrimental effects to regional and national economies. Western Europe recorded its hottest ever June, registering 10,000 excess deaths coinciding with the late June temperature surge and as this season’s fourth heat wave builds into August more destructive fires are expected.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 31-Aug. 7
July 31
- New Jersey State Fair begins
Aug. 1
- State elections for Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
- Primaries in Guam and U.S. Virgin Islands
- UK opens first ‘super-university’ as Kent and Greenwich merge
- Switzerland National Day
- Venezuela’s interim government to begin talks with the opposition
Aug. 3
- Maryland state lawmakers to hold a special session on redistricting
- Senegal’s Grand Magal of Touba Islamic pilgrimage
Aug. 4
- Primaries in Washington, Kansas, Missouri, Michigan and Virginia
- Lebanon day of national mourning to mark the anniversary of the Beirut Port explosion
Aug. 5
- Bangladesh observes July Uprising anniversary
Aug. 6
- Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing visits Thailand
- State Fair of West Virginia begins
- Wisconsin State Fair begins
- Primaries in Tennessee
Aug. 7
- Inauguration of 43rd president of Colombia
- Outside Lands begins in San Francisco
- Indiana State Fair begins
Aug. 8-14
Aug. 8
- New Belarus Conference in Warsaw
- Primaries in Hawaii
- WorldPride March in Amsterdam
Aug. 9
- U.S. holds first Patriot Games
Aug. 10
- Taiwan Urban Resilience (Air-Defense) Exercise
Aug. 11
- Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin
- Wyoming State Fair begins
Aug. 12
- UEFA Super Cup in Salzburg, Austria
Aug. 13
- Illinois State Fair begins
- Missouri State Fair begins
- Tennessee State Fair begins
- Zambian elections
Aug. 14
- Pakistan Independence Day
Aug. 15-21
Aug. 15
- Indian Independence Day
Aug. 17
- Indonesian Independence Day
Aug. 18
- Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
Aug. 19
- Academy of Country Music Awards (ACMs)
Aug. 20
- Kentucky State Fair begins
Aug. 21
- Alaska State Fair begins
- Dutch Grand Prix
- Oregon State Fair begins
Aug. 22-28
Aug. 22
- 2026–27 Premier League season opens
- Spanish Vuelta cycling race
Aug. 23
- Singapore National Day rally
- Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan
Aug. 26
- New York State Fair begins
Aug. 27
- PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta
- Reading Festival
- Leeds Festival
- Maryland State Fair begins
- Minnesota State Fair begins
Aug. 28
- All Points East in London
- Colorado State Fair begins
- Nebraska State Fair begins
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Top Photo: Israel, Lebanon and the United States sign a trilateral framework agreement in Washington, D.C., on June 26. (Official State Department photo by James C. Pan / Flickr)
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