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The toll from Nepal’s devastating flood continued to climb this week, with more than 1,200 people dead and thousands more still missing. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor talk about the rescue efforts underway, a report suggesting there may have been warning signs, and the long-term impact the flood will have on the region.
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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the month’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note the first Thursday of every month to help you get a jump-start on what’s ahead.
September 2026
A Look Ahead
Sept. 7 | Nationwide rail strike in Italy
Italian rail workers, including train drivers, are set to strike for 24 hours, starting at roughly 9:18 p.m. on Sept. 7 until 9:17 p.m. on Sept. 8.
What’s happened so far
Several organizations including trade unions have scheduled the industrial action due to workplace safety concerns and job security. The organizations allege that there were also failures to respond to requests for a renewal of their sector’s collective bargaining agreement. The rail strike marks the first mass stoppage this fall to impact the Italian transport sector as workers continue to air long-held grievances regarding working conditions and job security.
The impact
Severe disruptions are expected on passenger rail nationwide as drivers and on-board staff at Trenitalia Tper, Trenitalia and Mercitalia Rail strike. Freight rail services are also expected to be impacted. A separate stoppage affecting freight operator Captrain Italia over the same period is also expected to cause disruption.
Sept. 13 | Sweden parliamentary election
Sweden will hold parliamentary elections on Sept. 13.
What’s happened so far
This month’s election will be Sweden’s first parliamentary election in four years after the 2022 vote knocked Social Democrat Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson from power despite her party winning a plurality of seats. Following the 2022 race, a minority right-wing government was formed with Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson serving as prime minister.
The impact
Polling projections for the forthcoming vote show Sweden’s Social Democrat-led center-left opposition emerging victorious, signalling a likely return of Andersson to the prime minister’s office. If the projections hold, the right-wing Sweden Democrats would return to the opposition after holding power for the first time after years of being parliamentary outcasts. While in power, the Sweden Democrats moved to pass multiple sweeping immigration reform laws, enacting key long-term policy planks for the party.
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Sept. 18 | Russian parliamentary elections
Russia is preparing to hold elections starting Sept. 18 to select State Duma and regional officials amid rampant speculation over a possible mass mobilization event following the vote.
What’s happened so far
The parliamentary elections in Russia are expected to be neither free nor fair, with President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party set to reassert its dominance in what is likely to be pitched as an expression of popular support for the war in Ukraine. A total of 450 seats are up for grabs in Russia’s State Duma and the heads of 11 regions will also be elected to office. Additionally, this year will be the first where residents of the Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine will be allowed to take part. Moscow has tightened its grip on the remaining anti-war political opposition ahead of September’s vote, banning minority party Yabloko from participating based on accusations of funding from abroad and copyright infringement.
The impact
The election comes at a fraught time for the Kremlin as progress on the battlefield has stalled and Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign on oil and gas infrastructure has triggered nationwide fuel shortages. Falling recruitment numbers and heavy battlefield losses have also fuelled speculation the Kremlin will be forced to declare a mobilization event following the elections to bolster its ranks. Moscow has vehemently denied the claims as it did prior to the previous partial mobilization in 2022, branding them as deliberate fabrications. Despite this, there are few options available to Moscow and, while a mobilization event may not come straight after the elections, it is looking increasingly likely that Russia will resort to such a measure in preparation for a spring offensive in 2027.
Sept. 24 | Chinese president visits the White House
Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to meet for talks in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 24.
What’s happened so far
The visit comes against the backdrop of prolonged economic and strategic standoff between Washington and Beijing after the two leaders met during Trump’s trip to China in May. While neither Chinese or U.S. officials have provided further details on Xi’s schedule, according to reports, Xi is likely to arrive in the states on Sept. 23, skipping the UN General Assembly for meetings at the White House, and leaving the country on Sept. 25.
The impact
As the current one-year trade truce between China and the United States is set to expire on Nov. 10, reports suggest that both sides are looking to extend the agreement, with details on other potential tariff measures largely unclear. Analysts and international media will also be keeping an eye on discussions around AI competition and geopolitical tensions in Iran, as well as Taiwan.
Sept. 30 | Iraq deadline for U.S. withdrawal, militia disarmament
Iraq’s government is attempting to assert its authority by demanding that Iranian-backed militias affiliated with its army give up their weapons, coinciding with the final withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the country at the end of September.
What’s happened so far
Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has worked to extract his country from the wider regional conflict sparked by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, finding little traction because of decades-long sectarian disputes intensified by U.S. and Iranian interventions to wield influence over one of the world’s biggest oil producers. While the government has succeeded in convincing the U.S. military to leave and some armed factions to surrender their weapons, some of the country’s biggest militias refuse. Groups including Kata’ib Hezbollah, which attacked U.S. assets in Iraq during the height of this year’s Iran war, label themselves as resistance groups fighting occupation.
The impact
The government is insisting the withdrawal of U.S. troops on Sept. 30 ends the need for the militias to possess weapons outside state authority, but is continuing to hold negotiations in an effort to exert control over their use at minimum. Some lawmakers have threatened to prosecute militants who don’t comply under the country’s 21-year-old terrorism law, though local observers say the government is unlikely to escalate the dispute due to the potential of sparking violence. With the government’s deadline approaching, officials are signaling Sept. 30 will mark the start of disarmament, rather than a firm conclusion of the process.
What Else Matters
Nepal flooding
On Aug. 26, a flash flood hit the Rasuwa region of Nepal, along with neighboring border areas in Tibet and China, killing more than 1,200 people and leaving another 4,000 missing. The flood, caused by glacial collapse, came with little to no warning — though a new report suggests warning signs were visible — and sent mud, rocks and ice cascading into nearby communities. The incident came as Nepal still is recovering from two floods in July 2025 and September 2024.
Watch for: Search and rescue efforts for the thousands missing continue to be hampered by ongoing risk posed by two lakes formed during the initial glacial collapse. Efforts have already been halted briefly when these lakes overflowed. More overflows — and delays in search and rescue — are possible as heavy rains continue to hit the region, and officials are forecasting continued activity through Thursday. Transportation to and from flooded communities continue to be limited with several roads closed indefinitely. Rescuers are focused on a series of hydroelectric project tunnels, where an estimated 900 workers are believed to still be trapped.
Forecast podcast: Nepal flood death toll tops 1,200 as rescuers race to find thousands more missing
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the devastating flooding in Nepal, plus more on a rail strike in Italy, the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Mai Hoang, James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Jeff Landset, and Vivian Wang. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Possible Russian mobilization
Russia’s lack of progress on the battlefield in Ukraine coupled with Ukraine’s successful, long-range strike campaign have fueled speculation that the Kremlin may declare another mass mobilization following the Russian parliamentary elections in September. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied such claims, just as it did prior to declaring the previous partial mobilization in 2022, but Russian leadership faces undeniable problems both on the battlefield and at home that may force its hand. Perhaps the most pressing issue affecting Russian advances in Ukraine is the recruitment crisis as the Kremlin struggles to enlist enough soldiers to replace incremental losses in Ukraine. Independent Russian media reported in the second quarter of 2025 that the number of new recruits was at its lowest in two years.
Watch for: In the near term, Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for an increase in attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, mirroring tactics from last fall and winter when Ukraine suffered regular blackouts and heating disruption during the coldest months. Reporting suggests that while the issue of mobilization is being discussed as an option by Russian leadership, a definitive decision has yet to be made. The Kremlin is likely to use the results of the parliamentary elections in September as evidence of popular support for Putin and the war in Ukraine and may heighten risks of a possible mobilization. In the event of a mobilization, the effect on the battlefield will not be immediate and if one is declared it is likely to be in preparation for a large spring offensive. In the meantime, there has been a spike in citizens leaving the country, namely through the Upper Lars crossing with neighboring Georgia, as Russians themselves weigh up the likelihood of a fresh mobilization.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 4-11
Sept. 4
- Rock in Rio begins in Brazil
- Eastern Idaho State Fair begins
- Washington State Fair begins
- FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Berlin
Sept. 6
- State elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany
- The Big Half in London
Sept. 8
- 81st session of UN General Assembly
- New Hampshire primary
- UNESCO peace and security forum opens in Burundi
Sept. 9
- Rhode Island primary
Sept. 10
- New Mexico State Fair begins
- Utah State Fair begins
Sept. 11
- 25th anniversary of 9/11 attacks
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Rock in Rio Brasil
- Kansas State Fair begins
- Rosh Hashanah begins
Sept. 12-18
Sept. 12
- Clay County Fair begins in Spencer, Iowa
- Eastern Idaho State Fair concludes in Blackfoot
Sept. 13
- March against violence planned in Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico
- Swedish general election
Sept. 15
- Delaware primary
- South Carolina Senate District 15 special primary runoff
Sept. 16
- Mexican Independence Day
- Malaysia Day (Hari Malaysia)
Sept. 17
- Oklahoma State Fair begins
Sept. 18
- Chile’s Independence Day
- San Sebastián International Film Festival opens (74th edition)
- The Big E (Eastern States Exposition) begins in West Springfield, Mass.
- Russian State Duma elections
Sept. 19-25
Sept. 19
- Oktoberfest begins in Munich, Germany
- Asian Games 2026 in Nagoya, Japan
Sept. 20
- State elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany
Sept. 21
- China-Tajikistan joint drills
Sept. 22
- UN General Assembly high-level week and general debate begins
Sept. 23
- Morocco general election
Sept. 25
- Virginia State Fair begins
- Texas State Fair begins
- Korea’s Mid-Autumn Festival / Chuseok begins
Sept. 26-Oct. 2
Sept. 27
- São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election
Oct. 1
- Beginning of peak wildfire season for New South Wales, Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory and southern Western Australia
- Arizona State Fair begins
Oct. 2
- Austin City Limits begins
Top photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with deputies of the eighth State Duma. (Photo: Sofia Sandurskaya, TASS via Wikimedia Commons)
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