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An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has left at least 48 people dead, hundreds more infected, and prompted a controversial plan to quarantine Americans exposed to the virus at an air base in Kenya. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss reactions to the Trump administration’s plan, including the protests that have erupted near the base.
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Week of June 5-12
A Look Ahead
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
June 5 | Norway oil workers threaten strike
Hundreds of oil workers are expected to hold a strike on Friday if no agreement is reached between the government and unions.
What’s happened so far
The three trade unions who have called for the strike action — Styrke, Lederne and Safe — say 617 of their 8,000 members would take part in the first wave of action, as they seek pay rises and better working conditions. Industry representatives were summoned for mediation talks this week, and the ombudsman has banned work stoppages until the mediation is concluded.
The impact
Six oil platforms could be affected by the strike action, which would likely impact production in the oil-rich nation while the world is going through an energy crisis due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. If the mediation taking place in Oslo is successful though, this disruption could be avoided, or at least postponed.
June 6 | Pope visits Spain
Pope Leo XIV is expected to draw millions of people to events this week during his apostolic journey to Spain starting Saturday.
What’s happened so far
The pope is scheduled to visit Madrid, Barcelona and the Canary Islands during his trip from Saturday through Friday, marking the first time a pontiff has visited Spain in 15 years. The pope will meet the Spanish royal family and government officials during his visit, and he will hold events such as a mass at Madrid’s Bernabéu stadium.
The impact
Authorities earlier announced road closures and expected traffic disruptions due to the pope’s visit, with officials in Madrid adding that a special reinforced police and mobility unit would be deployed to ensure the security of events. The days of events are expected to be an economic boon for Spain, with the visit expected to generate over 150 million euros in economic return while costing some 25 million euros.
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June 7 | Kosovo elections
On Sunday, Kosovo will hold its third parliamentary election in 16 months as the country grapples with growing polarization.
What’s happened so far
The election will mark the third parliamentary election in Kosovo in just over a year, the latest of which was held just before the new year in which Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Vetevendoske party won in a landslide. However, political deadlock has worsened in the partially-recognized state, with Kurti’s party and the opposition repeatedly failing to agree on a new president, which ultimately triggered the latest snap vote.
The impact
Former President Vjosa Osmani, previously supported by Kurti when she was elected in 2021, will be running for parliament representing her own Democratic League of Kosovo party, underscoring the political fracture that has taken place in Pristina over the past five years. The domestic instability does not bode well for Kosovo’s EU ambitions, particularly after a series of recent unilateral measures imposed on the Serb region of Kosovo faced pushback from the United States and EU.
June 7 | Peru elections
Peru will hold national runoff elections for president on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
This election pits former congresswoman Keiko Fujimori against ex-cabinet member Robero Sánchez. The right-wing Fujimori campaigned on tough-on-crime promises as Peru faces escalating violence, extortions and killings. Sánchez is leaning into his man-of-the-people image, appealing to a leftist base with strong desires for social protections. Both candidates face an uphill climb. Fujimori secured only 17 percent of votes during the first round, while Sanchez garnered 12 percent in a crowded field.
The impact
Peru has elected nine presidents in the last 10 years, reflecting a fragile political landscape rife with past misgivings. Fujimori’s father, former President Alberto Fujimori, paints his daughter’s political life after he served time over corruption charges stemming from his presidency. Sánchez is also marred by the past, as he was in former President Pedro Castillo’s cabinet during the attempted “self-coup” for which he was imprisoned and that prematurely ended his presidency. Even the polling process is under review. A week following round one, the leader of the ONPE elections body stepped down amid uncertainty over the counting of votes.
June 7 | Armenia parliamentary elections
Armenia is set to hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, the country’s first since ethnic Armenians were expelled from the then-disputed Nagorno Karabakh region by the Azerbaijani government.
What’s happened so far
The elections will determine Armenia’s next government and whether incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his centrist Civil Contract party will remain in power. Pashinyan, who has been seeking closer ties with the West, is up against a number of pro-Russian opposition parties, including former President Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance formed with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation and the Strong Armenia party of Armenian-Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan.
The impact
The elections are widely viewed as a referendum on the country’s geopolitical future following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and ongoing peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. Armenia has been facing mounting pressure from Moscow due to warming ties with the West, with Russia banning import of produce from Armenia ahead of the elections, a pressure likely to grow if a pro-West Pashinyan regains power.
June 10 | Japan rocket launch
The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) will launch a H3 rocket on a test flight Wednesday.
What's happened so far
In December 2025, a H3 rocket failed to properly deploy its navigation satellite. JAXA found that the cause of this failure was likely due to part of the satellite adapter peeled off during its assembly. The rocket has since been inspected and repaired with the hope of ensuring a successful flight on June 10.
The impact
H3's predecessor, the H2A rocket, used bolts to join components together rather than the adhesive that contributed to the failure of the previous launch. JAXA has since reverted to using a method involving bolts used with the H2A rocket. The data from the H3 rocket's test flight will collect data to be used to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of future missions.
June 11 | World Cup opening game
Mexico will take on South Africa on Thursday in the first game of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the tournament kicks off in Mexico City.
What's happened so far
The United States, Mexico and Canada will co-host this year's tournament, with games taking place in 16 cities across the three nations. Mexico City will host the opening match, while MetLife Stadium, known in this tournament as New York New Jersey Stadium, will host the World Cup final in July. The 48-team soccer tournament, larger than any previous World Cup, will see a larger footprint than usual, with more than 100 matches played across the 16 cities. The first game of the tournament will take place at Estadio Azteca, rebranded for the World Cup as Mexico City Stadium, in front of an 83,000-capacity crowd.
The impact
Mexico plans to deploy almost 100,000 security personnel as part of its "Plan Kukulkán" effort, including more than 20,000 military personnel and 55,000 police officers. The force will cover the host cities as well as tourist areas nearby in order to reduce the risk of violence and manage the large crowds. As a host nation, Mexico will have a large home fan base on hand for support, with other teams expected to bring thousands of their own traveling fans to each game. This opening game may not set the tone for the expanded tournament, but it will be seen as an early test of logistics, support and security.
June 11 | Mexico transporters strike
Transportation unions plan to block key highways and maybe even border crossings in Mexico on Thursday, adding to the chaos currently being caused by other strikes and protests.
What's happened so far
Truckers have been increasingly unhappy with President Claudia Sheinbaum's government. Earlier this year, the ANTAC union accused an official with the Interior Department of lying about the amount of communication between both sides in the midst of another national strike. They've cited rising fuel and toll prices but are especially upset about increasing insecurity and a new law that gives the National Guard jurisdiction on the nation's highways. The unions allege drivers will face even more shakedowns and violence now from corrupt officials demanding bribes.
The impact
These road blockades will be happening on the same day as the opening match of the World Cup in Mexico City. Along with the ongoing teachers' union protests in the country, which have turned violent in some cases, things may be chaotic unless the government steps in. Officials are warning everyone traveling in the country to take precautions.
Protests in Kenya over U.S. Ebola facility
An Ebola quarantine facility for Americans at Laikipia air base in Nanyuki, Kenya, is facing steep obstacles after protests and a court ruling effectively stymied operations. The Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus has killed at least 48 people in the DR Congo, with more than 320 cases of the disease confirmed in an outbreak suspected to have sprung in March but detected in May after funding cuts devastated detection systems, a deadly outcome some blame on U.S. aid cuts that followed the Trump administration.
Watch for: Kenya has no cases so far, however, Uganda, which neighbors both countries, has seen multiple cases and at least one death. In late May, President Donald Trump's administration decided that Americans exposed to the Ebola virus will be treated outside the country, sealing the deal with Kenya's President Ruto with a $13.5 million commitment to a health partnership. The decision was met with anger in Kenya over fears of cross-border outbreak risks. The plan was also met with concern in the United States, where healthcare experts say forcefully treating Americans abroad raises medical, ethical and legal concerns. Protests near the Nanyuki base resulted in police firing tear gas and rubber bullets, injuring several people with protest organizers claiming fatalities. A Kenyan high court suspended the plan to establish the Ebola quarantine facility prior to the protests after activists challenged the deal. The next hearing will take place on June 23, with the Ruto government expected to share all assessments and protocols linked to the deal.
Forecast podcast: US plan to open Ebola quarantine center in Kenya sparks deadly protest
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss protests in Kenya over an Ebola quarantine facility for Americans, plus more on an oil workers strike in Norway, elections in Armenia and Peru, and the opening game of the World Cup.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Jess Fino, Awais Ahmad, Dre Grant, and David Wyllie. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Israel-Lebanon war
Israel is intensifying air attacks and expanding its advance on the ground in southern Lebanon, actions that threaten to derail negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at ending their three-month-old war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz vital to global energy supplies. In Washington, peace talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are taking place without the presence of Iran-allied militant group Hezbollah, reducing the efficacy of any potential deal beyond the immediate short term.
Watch for: Israeli attacks in the last week of May killed an average of 35 people a day, according to calculations based on Lebanese health ministry data, a 40-percent increase over the figures reported in the previous four weeks. Israel claims it's defending against Hezbollah attacks on its territory, with the group's drones and rockets having killed six soldiers mostly inside Lebanon and causing no measurable damage inside Israel. Iran has repeatedly demanded that an agreement to end fighting with the United States must also end Israel's war in Lebanon, a condition that was reportedly discussed in a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week and followed by the latter's threat of escalation to attack Beirut. Less than two months have passed since Israel conducted one of its most deadly attacks on the Lebanese capital, killing more than 300 people in a single day.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
June 5-12
June 5
- Spanish Grand Prix
- Turkey hosts Zero Waste Forum
- Pope visits Spain
- Norway oil workers threaten strike
June 6
- Belmont Stakes
June 7
- Armenian parliamentary elections
- Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan, Assembly general election
- Peru presidential election
- Mexico's Coahuila state legislative elections
- Italy municipal elections runoff
- Tony Awards
- Kosovo parliamentary elections
June 8
- Bonn Climate Change Conference
- National Sheriffs' Association Annual Conference
- Apple Worldwide Developers Conference
June 9
- Primary elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina
June 10
- Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
- Japan rocket launch
- Banco de Mexico Financial Stability Report
- B7 Summit in France
- South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review
- Portugal Day
June 11
- Mexico transporters strike
- World Cup begins
- North Carolina Republican Party State Convention
- Turkish interest rate decision
- Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival begins
- Central Reserve Bank of Peru monetary policy meeting and decision
June 12
- Bay Area-Silicon Valley Summit 2026
- Russia Day
- Philippines Independence Day
- Nigeria Democracy Day
- 55th Annual National Right to Life Conference
June 13-19
June 13
- UK King's Birthday Trooping the Colour
- Iowa Democratic Party State Convention
- Nevada State Democratic Party Convention
- Democratic Party of Wisconsin State Convention
- Green Party of California online General Assembly
June 14
- G7 Leaders Summit in France
- White House hosts UFC fight to celebrate 250 years since U.S. independence
- Switzerland referendum
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade
June 15
- UAW Constitutional Convention
June 16
- Oklahoma, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., primaries
- Georgia primary runoff
- Banco Central de Chile Monetary Policy Meeting interest rate announcement
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
- Our Ocean Conference
- Islamic New Year
- Royal Ascot begins
June 17
- U.S. Interest rate decision
- Brazil Monetary Policy decision
- Swedish repo rate announcement
- 2026 MLB Draft Combine
- ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit
- Iceland National Day
- 89th Tour de Suisse begins
June 18
- U.S. Open begins (golf)
- NATO defense ministers meeting
- EU Summit
- Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony in Chicago
- U.K. interest rate decision
- Taiwan Monetary Policy Decision
- Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting and decision
- Norges Bank monetary policy decision and publication of Monetary Policy Report
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Monetary Board on Monetary Policy meeting and decision
- Czech interest rate decision
- Seychelles Constitutional Day
June 19
- Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring
- Juneteenth
June 20-26
June 20
- Argentina National Flag Day
- Pope Leo visits Pavia and Sant'Angelo Lodigiano
June 21
- Summer solstice
- Colombia presidential election runoff
June 22
- OAS General Assembly
- People's Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement
June 23
- NBA Draft 2026
- Paris men's fashion week
- New York, Maryland and Utah primaries
- Hungarian interest rate decision
- 10th anniversary of Colombian civil war ceasefire agreement
June 24
- Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee meeting and decision
June 25
- Ashura
- Banco de Mexico monetary policy decision announcement
- Mozambique Independence Day
- Slovenia National Day
June 26
- 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft
- Egypt vs. Iran 2026 FIFA World Cup 'Pride Match' in Seattle
- Madagascar Independence Day
- Azerbaijan Armed Forces Day
June 27-July 3
June 27
- Louisiana primary runoff election
June 28
- BET Awards
- NYC Pride March
- San Francisco Pride Parade
- New Caledonia provincial elections
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix
June 29
- Wimbledon begins
June 30
- Nicolás Maduro and wife in court after capture by U.S. troops
- Colorado primary
- Tulsi Gabbard resigns as director of national intelligence
- Cyprus's EU presidency ends
- Banco de la Republica Colombia monetary policy meeting and decision
- Mercosur Summit of South American leaders
- AWS Summit Washington, D.C.
- DR Congo Independence Day
- Egypt anniversary of June Revolution/military coup
- OECD Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum
July 1
- Tour de France begins
- Kazakhstan parliament to dissolve ahead of next parliamentary elections
- USMCA trade agreement review begins
- Beginning of peak wildfire season for Queensland, Australia
- UK-EU Summit
- Ireland takes over EU presidency
- Burundi Independence Day
- Rwanda Independence Day
- Somalia Republic Day
July 3
- French Grand Prix
Top photo: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani delivers remarks at the FIFA World Cup Trophy Tour at the American Museum of Natural History in Manhattan. (Photo: Ed Reed / Mayoral Photography Office)
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