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Dozens of people were killed and hundreds more injured this week when a powerful earthquake struck off the coast of the southern Philippines. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss destruction from the quake and the relief and restoration efforts underway.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of June 12-19
A Look Ahead
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
June 13 | U.K. King’s Birthday Trooping the Colour
The United Kingdom will hold the annual celebration of King Charles III’s birthday on Sunday, marking the event with a parade and procession through central London.
What’s happened so far
King Charles III’s actual birthday falls on Nov. 14, but the monarch’s birthday is usually celebrated on another date, traditionally during the summer months. Following the parade, the royal procession returns to Buckingham Palace where the Royal Family is expected to make an appearance, coinciding with an RAF flypast.
The impact
Thousands of visitors are expected to descend on central London to watch the celebrations. Disruption to traffic and road closures are highly likely, especially around Whitehall and St. James’ Park. Visitors are also warned to expect crowd control measures and exit restrictions at subway stations in the center, including Green Park, St. James’s Park, Victoria, Charing Cross, Westminster and Piccadilly Circus.
June 14 | Annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade
New York City will hold its Puerto Rican Day Parade on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
More than a million people are expected to join the annual celebration of Puerto Rican heritage and its impact on the United States, in a parade spanning much of Midtown Manhattan. Singer Daddy Yankee will serve as parade grand marshal this year, celebrating major Puerto Rican contributions to the cultural fabric of New York City.
The impact
The parade will coincide with a busy window for Midtown Manhattan as it will be slotted between two New York Knicks home NBA Finals games held at Madison Square Garden. Game 3 marked the first NBA Finals game held at MSG in a quarter-century and came with significantly tightened police controls on both foot and vehicular traffic in Midtown Manhattan, in part due to the presence of President Donald Trump.
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June 14 | White House hosts UFC event
The White House will host a UFC event on Sunday as part of celebrations marking 250 years of U.S. independence.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump announced that the UFC octagon arena will be brought to the White House on the South Lawn, with an estimated 4,300 attendees expected. UFC CEO Dana White estimated a total cost of $60 million for the weekend. The event also marks Trump’s 80th birthday.
The impact
The event has recently been legally challenged based on National Park Service regulations. The Public Integrity Project filed a lawsuit seeking a restraining order to prevent the event from taking place at the White House, citing a “profound misuse of our sacred national monuments for private gain.” It remains to be seen whether the event, which Trump described as the “greatest show on Earth,” will proceed without incident.
June 14 | Switzerland referendum
Swiss citizens on Sunday will vote in a controversial referendum on capping the country’s population at 10 million, a move that could have far-reaching consequences
What’s happened so far
The proposal was launched by the right-wing anti-immigration Swiss People’s Party, which was able to gather the required 100,000 signatures to qualify for a national referendum. The move would cap Switzerland’s permanent resident population at 10 million and ensure it could not exceed that by 2050. The proposal has the backing of the Swiss People’s Party, which also has the largest number of seats in the country’s parliament, and has campaigned against immigration, warning it has degraded public services and put a strain on infrastructure and the environment. Centrist and left-wing political parties have been joined by business leaders and unions in a broad coalition against the cap, warning that heavily restricted immigration will hurt the country’s economy and violate existing international agreements.
The impact
A poll released on June 3 suggested the initiative will fail when put to voters, but with a narrow margin that could shift in the final days of the campaign. If it were to pass, the restriction would be written into the constitution, forcing the government to ensure that the country’s permanent resident population doesn’t grow to exceed 10 million people by 2050. The proposal would see population control efforts triggered at 9.5 million, before the 10 million cap is reached, meaning the consequences of a yes vote could be felt years earlier.
June 15 | G7 Leaders Summit in France
Leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union will gather in the southern French town of Évian-les-Bains starting Monday for a three-day meeting.
What’s happened so far
France has held the presidency of the G7 since the start of the year. When it took over the presidency, the country said it aimed to restore the group’s “initial vocation,” by working as a forum for dialogue between nations, resolving geopolitical crises and combating organized crime, among others.
The impact
The superpowers meet in the wake of several months of global instability, with the war in the Middle East causing political, economic and fuel crises. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed his attendance, as well as Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney. According to reports, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will also be attending the conference following an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron as he continues to push to make the country a global AI leader. Politico also reported that Macron will host a video call between the G7 countries and China ahead of the summit.
June 18 | EU Summit
The European Council will hold a two-day meeting starting Thursday, during which the bloc's security, both economic and physical, is expected to be top of the agenda.
What's happened so far
The summit is happening as European leadership faces growing pressure to protect its economy from dependence on Beijing. Several members, including France, are pushing for measures to be introduced to tackle Chinese overproduction, warning that excessively cheap imports threaten to undermine the EU economy. The war in Ukraine will also be high on the agenda as the bloc prepares to roll out a massive 90 billion-euro loan to Kyiv over four years into the full-scale war. Recently, an escalation in tit-for-tat strikes by Russia and Ukraine has resulted in drones straying into EU airspace, most notably in Romania on May 29 when a Russian drone struck a residential block in Galati, injuring two people.
The impact
European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said the European Commission is examining legislation that would obligate companies in sensitive sectors to cut dependence on single suppliers as part of a broader review of the bloc's trade defense measures. The EU's trade deficit with Beijing has continued to widen, increasing in 2025 to 360 billion euros, fueling concerns over a possible EU-China trade war.
June 19 | Juneteenth
Friday will mark the anniversary of the freedom of more than 250,000 Black people in Texas from slavery on June 19, 1865.
What's happened so far
In 1865, federal U.S. troops arrived in Galveston, Texas, to ensure that all enslaved people were freed, more than two years after the Emancipation Proclamation was signed. Juneteenth was recognized as a federal holiday in the United States in 2021 and is accompanied by both demonstrations and celebrations nationwide.
The impact
The Trump administration has removed both Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Jr. Day from the list of free days at national parks across America. President Donald Trump issued an executive order banning diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) programs from federal U.S. agencies in early 2026, which led to some agencies banning celebrations of holidays viewed as DEI-adjacent, including Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth. American activists have announced a 10-day campaign of demonstrations related to Juneteenth 2026.
What Else Matters
Philippines earthquake
On Monday, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake off the coast of Philippines' Mindanao prompted tsunami warnings for the island's coastal areas and caused widespread damage, most significantly in the Soccsksargen region. Thousands of buildings, including schools, hospitals and government infrastructure, have been destroyed or badly damaged by the tremor. According to the country's disaster agency, nearly 40 people were killed, more than 400 injured and several others are still missing. More than 145,600 people were affected by the destructive earthquake, with at least 40,600 people currently displaced across Zamboanga, Davao and Soccsksargen.
Watch for: With relief and restoration efforts still ongoing, and much of public infrastructure severely damaged, disruptions in public transportation and flights, as well as power outages, are expected to continue for at least several more days. Philippines' seismological authorities warned of aftershocks that may occur in the following days and up to a month, with more than 1,000 already recorded as of Tuesday morning.
Forecast podcast: Dozens killed and thousands displaced after powerful earthquake rocks southern Philippines
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Halima Mansoor discuss the earthquake in the southern Philippines that's left dozens dead, hundreds injured, and thousands displaced, plus more on a UFC fight at the White House, a referendum in Switzerland, the EU Summit, and the Juneteenth holiday in the U.S.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Halima Mansoor, Michael Archer, David Wyllie, and James Morgan. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
New World screwworm
The United States is scrambling to contain the spread of a flesh-eating fly threatening its $100 billion beef industry. The country reported its first case of screwworm infection in animals this month in more than 60 years, as officials track tens of thousands of animals and hundreds of people infected in Mexico and other Central American countries tied to the parasite's northern migration since Panama's 2023 outbreak. As of Tuesday, there are six confirmed cases in the United States.
Watch for: With the United States' ban on entry of cattle through its southern border in place since May, officials are increasing surveillance and combating the disease with millions of sterilized male insects released in Texas to mate with egg-laying females. The Environmental Protection Agency is also considering emergency approval for production and release into the wild of a genetically modified male screwworm that would effectively act as a pesticide, bypassing a lengthy review process. U.S. beef prices, already near record highs due to reduced herd sizes impacted by drought, are unlikely to experience sudden shock due to ongoing disease containment efforts and absence of the animal-to-animal transmission seen in many other outbreaks.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 12-19
June 12
- Bay Area-Silicon Valley Summit 2026
- Russia Day
- Philippines Independence Day
- Nigeria Democracy Day
- 55th Annual National Right to Life Conference
- SpaceX IPO
- Kennedy Center deadline to remove President Trump's name
June 13
- UK King's Birthday Trooping the Colour
- Iowa Democratic Party State Convention
- Nevada State Democratic Party Convention
- Democratic Party of Wisconsin State Convention
- Green Party of California online General Assembly
June 14
- White House hosts UFC fight to celebrate 250 years since U.S. independence
- Switzerland referendum
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Annual National Puerto Rican Day Parade
June 15
- G7 Leaders Summit in France
- UAW Constitutional Convention
June 16
- Oklahoma, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., primaries
- Georgia primary runoff
- Banco Central de Chile Monetary Policy Meeting interest rate announcement
- Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
- Our Ocean Conference
- Islamic New Year
- Royal Ascot begins
June 17
- U.S. Interest rate decision
- Brazil Monetary Policy decision
- Swedish repo rate announcement
- 2026 MLB Draft Combine
- ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit
- Iceland National Day
- 89th Tour de Suisse begins
June 18
- U.S. Open begins (golf)
- NATO defense ministers meeting
- EU Summit
- Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony in Chicago
- U.K. interest rate decision
- Taiwan Monetary Policy Decision
- Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting and decision
- Norges Bank monetary policy decision and publication of Monetary Policy Report
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Monetary Board on Monetary Policy meeting and decision
- Czech interest rate decision
- Seychelles Constitutional Day
June 19
- Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring
- Juneteenth
June 20-26
June 20
- Argentina National Flag Day
- Pope Leo visits Pavia and Sant'Angelo Lodigiano
June 21
- Summer solstice
- Colombia presidential election runoff
June 22
- OAS General Assembly
- People's Bank of China loan prime rate (LPR) announcement
June 23
- NBA Draft 2026
- Paris men's fashion week
- New York, Maryland and Utah primaries
- Hungarian interest rate decision
- 10th anniversary of Colombian civil war ceasefire agreement
June 24
- Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee meeting and decision
June 25
- Ashura
- Banco de Mexico monetary policy decision announcement
- Mozambique Independence Day
- Slovenia National Day
June 26
- 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft
- Egypt vs. Iran 2026 FIFA World Cup 'Pride Match' in Seattle
- Madagascar Independence Day
- Azerbaijan Armed Forces Day
June 27-July 3
June 27
- Louisiana primary runoff election
June 28
- BET Awards
- NYC Pride March
- San Francisco Pride Parade
- New Caledonia provincial elections
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix
June 29
- Wimbledon begins
June 30
- Nicolás Maduro and wife in court after capture by U.S. troops
- Colorado primary
- Tulsi Gabbard resigns as director of national intelligence
- Cyprus's EU presidency ends
- Banco de la Republica Colombia monetary policy meeting and decision
- Mercosur Summit of South American leaders
- AWS Summit Washington, D.C.
- DR Congo Independence Day
- Egypt anniversary of June Revolution/military coup
- OECD Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum
July 1
- Tour de France begins
- Kazakhstan parliament to dissolve ahead of next parliamentary elections
- USMCA trade agreement review begins
- Beginning of peak wildfire season for Queensland, Australia
- UK-EU Summit
- Ireland takes over EU presidency
- Burundi Independence Day
- Rwanda Independence Day
- Somalia Republic Day
July 3
- French Grand Prix
July 4-10
July 4
- U.S. Independence Day
July 7
- NATO Summit in Ankara
July 10
- Hungarian Grand Prix
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Top photo: The UFC octagon is coming to the White House next week for a celebration marking the United States' 250th anniversary and President Donald Trump's 80th birthday. (Photo: G. Edward Johnson / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)
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