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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
The next episode of the Factal Forecast podcast will be released July 2. In the meantime, check out this month’s edition of The Debrief, on the uncertainty surrounding Mali’s political landscape after key northern towns fell out of government hands during a late April offensive.
Week of June 26-July 3
A Look Ahead
June 27 | Louisiana primary runoff election
On Saturday, voters across Louisiana will choose who might represent them in the U.S. Senate and other state and local offices.
What’s happened so far
Voting comes on the heels of a U.S. Supreme Court decision that prompted Gov. Jeff Landry to postpone primary elections for the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this year. It also will be the first year voters navigate closed primaries in the state. Bill Cassidy, a Republican who has represented Louisiana in the U.S. Senate since 2015, lost his reelection bid last month after President Donald Trump called him a “disloyal disaster” and endorsed U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow.
The impact
Letlow will face state Treasurer John Fleming on Saturday’s ballot, while Democrats will choose between farmer Jamie Davis and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett. The winners will go on to the ballot in November, with the victor slated to succeed Cassidy. In November, voters are also set to choose their next representatives in the U.S. House, with a runoff scheduled for Dec. 12 if necessary.
June 28 | NYC and SF Pride
People across New York City and San Francisco on Sunday will celebrate the struggle for rights amongst the LGBTQ+ community.
What’s happened so far
San Francisco’s Pride march will begin in the city’s Financial District at 10:30 a.m. PT on June 28. The route will follow down Market Street, ending at Civic Center Plaza. The pride march in New York City will begin at 12 p.m. ET near Madison Square Park, eventually ending on 15th Street in Greenwich Village.
The impact
In San Francisco, several stages will be present on June 28 for people to enjoy live music, celebrate and listen to guest speakers. New York’s famous annual PrideFest will also take place, as thousands of people are likely to gather for celebrations. New York’s pride parade in 2025 saw a huge drop in corporate sponsorship funding in comparison to previous years. San Francisco similarly saw a drop of more than $300,000 in sponsorships in 2025. San Francisco police have said there will be a significant police presence at the event, along with metal detectors at Civic Center. Traffic disruptions can be expected in both cities.
June 30 | Anti-migrant national shutdown in South Africa
South African authorities are on high alert as anti-immigrant protests and unrest are expected Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Over the last few weeks, South Africa has seen increased xenophobic attacks targeting other African nationals, whom anti-immigrant groups blame for the country’s high unemployment rate and poor public services. Several groups, including the opposition party ActionSA, anti-immigrant group March and March and others, have been organizing demonstrations and calling for all undocumented foreigners to leave the country by June 30. On June 17, police fired rubber bullets and stun grenades outside a community hall in Durban, where Malawian migrants were protesting over delays in their deportation process. In wake of the rising tension, several African countries — including Malawi, Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zimbabwe — have been arranging voluntary repatriations of their nationals by air or bus. President Cyril Ramaphosa condemned the attacks on foreign workers and warned against “scapegoating” migrants for the country’s economic problems.
The impact
Multiple major South African labor unions have urged their workers to not participate in the anti-immigrant demonstrations, warning of “consequences” if members skip work. The South African government said police and army are prepared to protect the country’s critical infrastructure and maintain public order in the days coming up to the June 30 deadline.
June 30 | Egypt anniversary of June Revolution
Tuesday marks 13 years since nationwide protests led to the ousting of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi.
What’s happened so far
On June 30, 2013, millions of Egyptians demonstrated, demanding the removal of Morsi, accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of maladministering the country. The Egyptian military subsequently mobilized and seized power, leading to the formation of an interim government and the drafting of a new constitution. Former army chief Abdel Fatah al-Sisi became president in 2014 and remains in office, serving his third six-year term. Egypt has recently struggled economically due to the accrual of external debt.
The impact
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly designated July 2 as an official paid national holiday to mark the anniversary of the events of June 30, 2013. The Egyptian government has framed the events of June 30 as a just revolution as Egypt fell “into the grip of religious charlatans who exploited and sold religion.”
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June 30 | Mercosur Summit of South American leaders
Leaders of the South American Mercosur trade bloc will meet in Asunción, Paraguay, for the bloc’s 2026 summit Tuesday, marking the 35th anniversary of its founding treaty.
What’s happened so far
The summit marks the final milestone of Paraguay’s pro-tempore presidency before it hands leadership over to Uruguay. In the lead up to the summit, Mercosur signed a historic agreement with the EU earlier this year, which entered provisional application in May despite being referred to the EU Court of Justice amid intense European agricultural lobby pushback. The bloc has also implemented a free trade deal with Singapore and formally launched negotiations with Japan to establish new trade pathways.
The impact
The summit comes at a time when the bloc is seeking to expand and diversify export markets and deepen economic ties with Europe and Asia. The summit will be closely watched for signs that the bloc can sustain momentum on external trade and investment following the implementation of its agreement with the EU and the launch of negotiations with Japan, as major economies compete to secure access to South America’s critical minerals and manufacturing base.
July 1 | USMCA trade agreement review begins
The United States, Canada and Mexico will officially start on Wednesday the process of reviewing the trade agreement that replaced NAFTA during President Donald Trump’s first term.
What’s happened so far
The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement came into effect on July 1, 2020, modernizing the last trade agreement while adding incentives for automakers in the United States and establishing tough rules for patents, copyrights and trademarks. The three countries could have agreed to a 16-year extension of the deal, however that isn’t likely. In his second term, Trump has decried the agreement, saying he might not renew it. His administration has also negotiated separately with Mexico and at times floated removing Canada altogether, seemingly as part of negotiation tactics.
The impact
Any country can withdraw by giving six months’ notice ahead of its planned expiration in 2036. With that as a threat, the three countries continue to negotiate. Many in Trump’s orbit are trying to get changes put into a newly agreed deal, such as tech companies looking for exemptions from patent, copyright and trademark laws so they can train AI models without fear of breaking the law.
What Else Matters
Europe heat wave
Western Europe is currently in the midst of a significant heat wave, predominantly impacting France, Spain and the United Kingdom, where temperatures are approaching or exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Severe heat warnings have also been issued in Western European countries such as Italy, Switzerland and Germany. The soaring temperatures, which meteorologists say are being triggered by a mass of hot air moving north from the Sahara, are projected to last through this weekend before abating in some impacted parts of northern Europe such as London and Paris. Severe heat is forecast to persist, however, in parts of southern Europe such as Rome and Madrid.
Watch for: The heat wave underscores the extent to which summer weather in Europe is becoming increasingly extreme year-over-year after more than 95 percent of Europe experienced abnormally hot temperatures in 2025. Scientists assess that Europe’s increasingly hostile summer climate combined with infrastructure ill-equipped to deal with soaring temperatures has contributed to tens of thousands of excess deaths in recent years. The ongoing heat wave has already contributed to at least 40 drowning deaths in France as people seek refuge from the extreme heat. European transportation infrastructure poses an additional risk during heat waves, with French authorities warning of the potential for severe impact to rail transit due to the risk of overhead wires and tracks being damaged.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns
Bowing to months of pressure from his own Labour Party, Keir Starmer said Monday he will step down as the United Kingdom’s prime minister, triggering a leadership contest to find his replacement. Starmer had come under increased criticism for big losses in local council elections in May, disagreements over the defense budget, and Starmer’s appointment of Epstein-linked Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the United States in 2025. Former Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as the most popular candidate after winning a by-election last week and becoming a sitting MP.
Watch for: The Labour Party won the general election with a landslide victory in 2024, but over the past two years public disapproval of Keir Starmer increased significantly, eliciting calls for a replacement. At present, only Andy Burnham has announced he will run in the leadership contest, although reports suggest several MPs are contemplating throwing their hat in the ring. Nominations open on July 9 and prospective candidates are required to obtain the backing of 81 MPs to run. If no other candidates stand, then Andy Burnham would become the new prime minister without the need for a vote. Starmer’s resignation triggered the ire of opposition parties who called for a general election to be held. While a general election is highly unlikely, calls will invariably continue while the contest to find Starmer’s replacement continues.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 26-July 3
June 26
- 2026 Upper Deck NHL Draft
- Egypt vs. Iran 2026 FIFA World Cup ‘Pride Match’ in Seattle
- Madagascar Independence Day
- Azerbaijan Armed Forces Day
June 27
- Louisiana primary runoff election
- Mexico City Pride Parade
- Sunshine State Showdown in Florida
June 28
- BET Awards
- NYC Pride March
- San Francisco Pride Parade
- New Caledonia provincial elections
- F1 Austrian Grand Prix
June 29
- Wimbledon begins
June 30
- Colorado primary
- Cyprus’s EU presidency ends
- Banco de la Republica Colombia monetary policy meeting and decision
- Mercosur Summit of South American leaders
- AWS Summit Washington, D.C.
- DR Congo Independence Day
- Egypt anniversary of June Revolution/military coup
- OECD Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum
- South Africa national shutdown planned as country plans to expel illegal immigrants
July 1
- Tour de France begins
- Kazakhstan parliament to dissolve ahead of next parliamentary elections
- USMCA trade agreement review begins
- Beginning of peak wildfire season for Queensland, Australia
- Ireland takes over EU presidency
- Burundi Independence Day
- Rwanda Independence Day
- Somalia Republic Day
- Hong Kong Handover anniversary
- U.S. federal student loan repayment changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act take effect
- Japan PM Takaichi may visit northeast India
- Virginia assault weapons ban comes into effect
- Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport’s Terminal 1 will reopen for international flights
July 3
- French Grand Prix
July 4-10
July 4
- U.S. Independence Day
July 7
- NATO Summit in Ankara
July 10
- Hungarian Grand Prix
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Allahabad, India
July 11-17
July 11
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Patna, India
- Malaysia’s Johor state elections
July 12
- Sweden effectively ends permanent residency for asylum seekers
July 13
- DEA’s Fentanyl Free America Summit in Orlando
July 14
- Rahul Gandhi holds student convention in Delhi, India
- EU decision expected on Paramount, Warner Bros deal
July 15
- Possible confirmation hearing date for Todd Blanche as U.S. attorney general
- Canada’s bail reform law comes into effect
- U.K. and India free trade deal comes into effect
- Zambia set to host the J30 International Tennis Tournament
- Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Forum
July 16
- Fanatics Fest in New York City
- 154th Open at Royal Birkdale (golf)
- CPAC Great Britain
July 18-24
July 19
- Sao Tome and Principe presidential election
July 20
- Inauguration of Colombia’s new Congress
July 22
- European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting
July 23
- Commonwealth Games begins
Top Photo: New York City Pride Parade 2021 (Anthony Quintano / Flickr, CC BY 2.0)
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