The Debrief: Cuba's dark spring - Factal Blog: News about global security, disaster response and crisis collaboration

A months-long oil embargo pushes the Caribbean island’s fragile energy system to the brink

At the start of 2026, the state of the Cuban energy grid was unstable at best. Aging infrastructure had long strained capacity, while a heavy reliance on oil imports left it vulnerable to supply shocks. That vulnerability was laid bare in early January, with the ouster of Nicolás Maduro in nearby Venezuela.

Until the U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of the socialist leader, the country supplied an estimated 35,000 barrels of oil per day to Cuba, representing roughly a quarter of its total demand.

With those shipments halted, the energy situation deteriorated quickly. By March, as the oil shortage and U.S. sanctions intensified, repeated nationwide blackouts shifted from chronic strain to outright breakdown.

Compared to its central and south American counterparts, Cuba is uniquely dependent on oil for its energy needs, with more than 80 percent of the island’s energy consumption sourced from petroleum. Without Venezuelan oil, there are few alternatives.

Diplomatic pressure from the U.S. had already prompted a steep drop in exports from Mexico, down to just 7,000 barrels a day following a September 2025 visit from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Those deliveries were then halted entirely in the wake of an executive order from President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on any country that sold or otherwise provided oil to Cuba, though the country claimed it was a “sovereign decision” not based on outside forces.

“They have to invest into energy diversification to kind of take away the heavy reliance on the oil imports.”

Without Venezuelan or Mexican imports, Cuba has few allies to turn to meet demand, and lacks the requisite funds to make those purchases. On its own, Cuba produces roughly 40 percent of its petroleum, leaving a significant gap that also can’t be easily closed. Even that output presents challenges.

“The oil is really inferior,” said Factal Editor Jaime Calle Moreno. “It's really, really corrosive, and it produces a lot more wear and tear. And this wear and tear is in the refineries and the plants themselves.”

A transition to renewable energy could eventually reduce that dependence, but the upfront cost, estimated at $8 billion, remains far out of reach.

“They have all the prerequisites for solar and wind power,” Moreno said. “They have to invest into energy diversification to kind of take away the heavy reliance on the oil imports.”

While the grid failures and blackouts alone have a significant impact, rationing efforts have also become increasingly ubiquitous. Gasoline sales are limited to five gallons per vehicle, with drivers forced to register through a state-run app to join the queue, and weeks-long waits for a fill-up. Universities have canceled classes or moved online amid outages and transportation disruptions, prompting protests. Hospitals have struggled to operate, with staff unable to commute and medicine production slowed by diesel-dependent factories. No part of day-to-day life has proven immune to the energy crisis.

The oil blockade is only one salvo from the Trump administration toward Cuba since the start of his second term last January. On his first day back in office, Trump maintained the country’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, with his administration moving quickly to reestablish the restricted list prohibiting direct financial transactions with companies, “under the control of, or acting for or on behalf of, the repressive Cuban military, intelligence, or security services or personnel.” The country was also included in the president’s June travel ban with partial entry restrictions.

“Cuba doesn't have the financial or structural capacity to be able to deal with this crisis.”

In the days after Maduro’s capture, the president quickly turned his attention to exerting further pressure on Cuba. In an all caps credo on Truth Social, Trump said "there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba - zero," urging the country to make a deal “before it is too late.”

“Cuba doesn't have the financial or structural capacity to be able to deal with this crisis,” Moreno said. “And since the energy infrastructure was already in such a poor shape to begin with, the oil blockades have been kind of the best way to further and further strangle the Cuban administration and the Communist Party.”

However, there are signs the U.S. stance may be easing. In early April, a Russian-owned tanker carrying more than 700,000 barrels of crude arrived on the northern coast of Cuba without U.S. interference, with a second shipment promised by Russian government officials. A senior U.S. State Department delegation also reportedly met with Cuban officials in mid-April, calling for economic and governance reforms “before circumstances irreversibly worsen.”

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have sought to frame the blackouts as a product of long-term neglect, rather than sanctions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointing to outdated infrastructure that has not been properly maintained.

While decades of decay have left key parts of the grid vulnerable, months without oil shipments exacerbated the situation across all walks of Cuban life.

“If the current Cuban dilapidated energy infrastructure is the hand that holds the neck of Cuba, the embargo and the financial sanctions are what presses the hand with more and more force to continue squeezing and squeezing and squeezing and squeezing,” Moreno said.

Written by Joe Veyera. Edited by Bada Kim.

The Debrief: Cuba’s dark spring

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The Debrief: Cuba’s dark spring

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