Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of August 21 – 28
A Look Ahead
Aug. 21 | Court order to halt White House ballroom construction takes effect
A U.S. appeals court panel has ordered construction on the White House ballroom extension project to cease beginning Friday.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump has long advocated for the construction of a massive ballroom on the White House grounds, culminating in the destruction of the East Wing of the complex last fall. The project, however, has faced controversy from the start, with a federal appeals court ordering the administration to cease construction on the project earlier this month, citing a lack of congressional approval for the project.
The impact
While the ballroom was initially touted for its aesthetics, the Trump administration’s justification has steadily leaned more into the invocation of national security. After initially seizing upon the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting earlier this year to justify a more secure ballroom complex, the administration is now appealing to the Supreme Court to allow the construction of the ballroom area to proceed, by referring to it as an “integrated military complex” that is “vitally required by national security.”
Aug. 22 | Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, D.C.
Spectators are expected to gather in Washington, DC, beginning Saturday for an IndyCar street race in the United States’ capital.
What’s happened so far
The event, part of celebrations to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, officially kicks off with practices and qualifying races on Saturday. Last month, an official with the FBI’s Washington field office said no “credible threats” were being monitored in connection with the race, though authorities are urging visitors and residents to practice vigilance and report any suspicious activity seen during the celebrations.
The impact
Officials say a large number of uniformed officers will be deployed across Washington, DC, for this weekend’s events, with traffic control points announced in parts of the city. Local officials earlier announced traffic impacts that are expected to last through September. The Federal Aviation Administration has also said it plans to halt flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport for three hours on Sunday to support the event, adding that the exact timings could change. Flights could also be impacted on Friday. Organizers say hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend the festivities, which will also be streamed online.
Aug 23 | Singapore National Day rally
Singapore Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong will deliver his annual National Day Rally on Sunday at ITE College Central in Ang Mo Kio, in what is considered one of the government’s most important annual policy addresses. It will be his third National Day Rally as prime minister.
What’s happened so far
The most concrete confirmed theme is families and parenthood. In his Aug. 8 National Day message, he said the government is reconsidering the cost of raising children, affordable childcare, and other measures to reduce pressure on families, adding he would provide further details at the rally. The push has taken on greater urgency after Singapore’s resident total fertility rate fell to a historic low of 0.87 in 2025, down from 0.97 the previous year.
The impact
The announcement will offer an early indication of how the government plans to respond to Singapore’s rapidly shrinking birth rate. With Wong already having indicated financial relief to come, the size of any new package and whether they go beyond the existing incentives, will be the key thing to watch.
Aug 23 | Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan on Sunday will elect representatives to the country’s parliament following a major constitutional change.
What’s happened so far
This is the first election to Kazakhstan’s new unicameral legislature, the Kurultai, which was established following a March constitutional referendum that replaced the former system of two chambers, the Mäjilis and the Senate. The parliamentary election will be monitored by a team of electoral observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
The impact
All 145 deputies in the chamber will be elected to five-year terms using proportional representation that treats the country as a single constituency, with voters choosing from a range of parties. The vote will be an early test of how Kazakhstan’s new political system will function following sweeping constitutional changes, which also gave President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev greater power to appoint new officials, seemingly deepening his control over the country’s politics.
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Aug. 24 | Paraguay national doctors’ strike
Paraguay’s doctors’ union has called for a five-day industrial action starting Monday over working conditions.
What’s happened so far
Sinamed, the National Union of Doctors, has urged 11,000 medical professionals to take part in the strike. Demands include better staffing in wards, provision of basic supplies and equipment, and an increase in salary to reflect the loss in purchasing power.
The impact
Emergency services will remain available throughout the strike, while scheduled appointments will be suspended in hospitals nationwide. The union argues that the action is necessary after exhausting available avenues, which will result in a significant reduction in medical services across the country if the strike proceeds as planned.
Aug. 24 | Ukraine Independence Day
On Monday, Ukraine marks its fifth independence day since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, with intelligence services warning of potential increased attacks coinciding with the holiday.
What’s happened so far
Previous independence days have been punctuated by Russian mass strikes on Ukrainian cities, targeting civilian infrastructure and resulting in loss of life. Last year, Kyiv also mounted strikes on Russian territory, coinciding with the holiday, hitting oil and gas infrastructure in Leningrad region. This year, the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications, citing U.S. intelligence, reported Russia may be preparing a large-scale strike campaign against energy infrastructure. The German Foreign Ministry also issued updated guidance urging citizens to refrain from rail travel around the holiday.
The impact
Given Russia’s history of conducting strikes on previous independence days, there is an increased risk of large-scale attacks on major Ukrainian cities around the holiday. Recent Russian strikes have targeted Ukrainian railway and port infrastructure, while strikes in residential areas in major cities also remain at risk.
Aug. 25 | South Carolina runoff
The South Carolina race to replace Lindsey Graham in the U.S. Senate will take a major step on Tuesday when voters will choose the Republican nominee: either Congressman Ralph Norman or Graham’s sister Darline Graham Nordone, a political newcomer.
What’s happened so far
Graham, a four-term incumbent, died suddenly on July 11 just weeks after he won the nomination. President Donald Trump quickly called for the governor to appoint sister Darline Graham Nordone to serve out his term. She officially became the state’s first female senator on July 14 after decades working with those with disabilities. Trump has never wavered in his endorsement of her, despite nine other Republicans running for the seat in the special primary on Aug. 11. Trump pushed third place finisher Rep. Russell Fry to endorse Graham for the runoff, and plans to travel to Fry’s district in Myrtle Beach on Friday.
The impact
With Trump’s backing, Graham is a heavy favorite to clinch the nomination and win a full six-year term against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who ran for Congress against Nancy Mace in 2022. The state hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. If Graham wins, Trump will likely continue to have a staunch ally in the upper chamber, but one without much political experience. A Norman victory on the other hand, would produce a senator who has shown a willingness to question the president’s actions.
What Else Matters
Indonesia earthquake
At least 70 people have been killed and nearly 1,200 injured after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Indonesia's Flores island in East Nusa Tenggara on Saturday, triggering landslides and damage to thousands of buildings, as well as a brief tsunami warning. Damaged and blocked roads have complicated access to some of the hardest-hit communities, prompting authorities to airlift food, tents and other emergency supplies while establishing field hospitals. Indonesia sits along the seismically active Pacific “Ring of Fire” and is consequently prone to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but this is the country's deadliest earthquake since the 2022 West Java quake, with the scale of destruction likely to place pressure on emergency services.
Watch for: More than 3,000 aftershocks had been recorded by Tuesday, leaving many hesitant to return to damaged homes and further complicating recovery efforts. More than 60,000 people remain displaced, and many are sheltering in tents, evacuation centers and makeshift camps. Nearly 12,000 homes have been damaged, alongside more than 650 schools and scores of health facilities, government buildings and places of worship. Thousands of residents are still waiting for aid days after the earthquake, while landslides and road blockages risk further isolating communities already struggling to receive assistance.
Big Bend border battle
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott said Monday that construction would be paused in Texas' Big Bend National Park while he conducts a “personal, on-the-ground evaluation” following significant bipartisan backlash over border infrastructure work in the park. The announcement represents a reversal of sorts for Scott, who, earlier this month, stressed that the $1.7 billion project was limited to road construction and improvements, new detection technology and vehicle barriers, rather than “a 30-foot wall or stadium lighting.” The controversy intensified after videos showing bulldozers uprooting trees in the area circulated on social media, and local officials raised concerns about the project's scope and environmental impact. Critics have also questioned the need for border construction in an area where natural geography makes crossing attempts difficult.
Watch for: It remains unclear how long the pause will last or how expansive Scott's evaluation will be. Curbing illegal border crossings has remained among the top priorities of the Trump administration since his return to office, reviving his first-term promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” along the border, at Mexico's expense. Whether public pushback will be enough for the government to change course on this portion of the border remains to be seen.
Factal Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Joe Veyera discuss a controversial border project involving Big Bend National Park in Texas, plus more on an IndyCar race in Washington, D.C., an annual speech from Singapore’s prime minister, a doctors’ strike in Paraguay, and Independence Day in Ukraine.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Joe Veyera, Theresa Seiger, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Michael Archer, and James Morgan. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 14-21
Aug. 14
- Pakistan Independence Day
Aug. 15
- Indian Independence Day
Aug. 17
- Indonesian Independence Day
Aug. 18
- Primaries in Alaska, Florida, Wyoming
Aug. 19
- Academy of Country Music Awards (ACMs)
Aug. 20
- Kentucky State fair begins
Aug. 21
- Alaska State Fair begins
- Dutch Grand Prix
- Oregon State Fair begins
Aug. 22-28
Aug. 22
- 2026–27 Premier League season opens
- Spanish Vuelta cycling race
Aug. 23
- Singapore National Day rally
- Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan
Aug. 26
- New York State Fair begins
Aug. 27
- PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta
- Reading Festival
- Leeds Festival
- Maryland State Fair begins
- Minnesota State Fair begins
Aug. 28
- All Points East in London
- Colorado State Fair begins
- Nebraska State Fair begins
Aug. 29-Sept. 4
Aug. 29
- Iceland referendum on accession negotiations with the EU
- Vietnam National Day holiday
- Notting Hill Carnival begins in London
Aug. 30
- First round of Haiti general election
- Estonia parliamentary election
- U.S. Open (tennis) main draw begins in New York
- Sydney Marathon
Aug. 31
- South Africa's Madlanga Commission to fight police corruption submits final findings
Sept. 2
- South Dakota State Fair begins
- Estonia presidential election
- Venice International Film Festival begins
Sept. 3
- Hopkinton State Fair (New Hampshire) begins
- Michigan State Fair begins
Sept. 4
- Rock in Rio begins in Brazil
- Eastern Idaho State Fair begins
- Washington State Fair begins
- FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in Berlin
Sept. 5-11
Sept. 6
- State elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany
- The Big Half in London
Sept. 8
- 81st session of UN General Assembly
- New Hampshire primary
Sept. 9
- Rhode Island primary
Sept. 10
- New Mexico State Fair begins
- Utah State Fair begins
Sept. 11
- 25th anniversary of 9/11 attacks
- F1 Spanish Grand Prix
- Rock in Rio Brasil
- Kansas State Fair begins
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Top Photo: President Trump speaks to reporters on May 19, 2026, at the construction site for the controversial White House Ballroom. (Joyce N. Boghosian / The White House)
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