Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of April 3-10
A Look Ahead
April 3 | Trump delivers annual budget request to Congress
President Donald Trump is expected to send a budget request to Congress on Friday.
What’s happened so far
The request will shed light on Trump’s spending priorities in the 2027 fiscal year beginning Oct. 1. The Pentagon earlier asked the White House to approve a $200 billion request to Congress to fund the ongoing war in Iran, amounting to nearly a quarter of the country’s entire annual defense budget. The request came after lawmakers approved $150 billion in new spending for the Defense Department and national security last year.
The impact
The budget request is not expected to include specifics around military spending, which will reportedly come later this month. The president in January called for a $1.5 trillion defense budget — a $500 billion increase when compared to the numbers from this year’s budget — pointing to revenue brought in by tariffs imposed since he returned to the White House last year. The extra spending, if approved, is expected to add trillions of dollars to the national debt, which crossed a record-breaking $39 trillion last month.
April 4 | Maldives elections and referendum
On Sunday, Maldives will hold local council and women’s development committee elections, as well as vote on a constitutional referendum.
What’s happened so far
According to Maldives’ election commission, more than 294,000 registered voters in 226 constituencies across the country will go to the polls to decide their local council representatives for the next five years. Also on the ballot papers are the women’s development committee and a referendum, called by incumbent President Mohamed Muizzu, on whether to hold future presidential and parliamentary elections concurrently.
The impact
While supporters of the upcoming referendum say holding concurrent elections can cut costs and improve voter turnout, those against it question its impact on accountability and the balance of power, with voters possibly more inclined to vote for the same party in presidential and parliamentary elections if they are held simultaneously. The current Maldives government was criticized by the opposition expressing similar concerns after pushing through amendments restricting the powers of local councils in August 2025.
April 6 | Trump’s deadline on Iran
Monday marks the deadline U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran to open the vital Strait of Hormuz.
What’s happened so far
Trump has threatened to strike Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened by the deadline, which the president extended by 10 days last month. In response to the threat, Iran said it would treat the energy infrastructure of the Gulf countries as military targets. Power outages have already occurred in Tehran and Alborz after strikes damaged several substations, but both power plants in Iran and energy infrastructure in the Gulf countries have not been confirmed to have been targeted.
The impact
Strikes continue in both directions. On Wednesday, at least 14 people were injured in multiple Iranian strikes in quick succession targeting Tel Aviv, and Tehran continues to be hit. It is unclear whether Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, with oil tankers and ships still being hit by missiles and drones, but recently Trump has claimed Iran has approached him for a ceasefire. It is yet to be seen whether the conflict changes by Monday.
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April 7 | JD Vance visits Hungary ahead of election
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Hungary beginning Tuesday as the country prepares for elections.
What’s happened so far
The trip comes just a few days before the country holds general elections on April 12, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces strong competition from Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza party. U.S. President Donald Trump has so far pledged support to Orbán, saying in a social post last month he in a “truly strong and powerful leader, with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results.”
The impact
Recent polls suggest Tisza is gaining support while Orban’s Fidesz party is somewhat slowing down, despite many voters still being undecided. The results of this election could bring a shift to the country’s relationship with the European Union and the rest of the world, either securing continuation of a far-right leadership or a move toward a more center-right government. It is unclear if Vance’s visit will help to sway voters.
April 9 | Assembly elections in India’s Assam, Kerala and Puducherry regions
Assembly elections in five Indian states will take place in April, starting next Thursday with Assam, Kerala and Puducherry.
What’s happened so far
The elections will determine state governments, with more than 1,900 candidates contesting seats across the three regions. A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is seeking to hold onto power in Assam, while in Kerala the center-left Congress-led United Democratic Front is aiming to unseat the incumbent Left Democratic Front. Puducherry, on the other hand, remains a more fragmented race, likely to end in a split result. Security has been heightened, especially in Assam, with large deployments of security personnel. Results are expected for all three May 4.
The impact
Little unrest is expected during the polls, but they’re being held under tight security, which carries concerns for insurgent or cross-border unrest. The results will determine potential power shifts in all three states. A win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP party in Assam would reinforce its regional dominance, while Congress is hoping to gain fresh momentum nationally with a win in Kerala. The Puducherry elections remain a wild card with no clear winner expected.
April 10 | Djibouti election
Djibouti will hold a presidential election next Friday, with President Ismail Omar Guelleh seeking a sixth term after authorities opened nominations in early March.
What’s happened so far
Guelleh, in power since 1999, is running again after Djibouti’s National Assembly removed the presidential age cap in October 2025, clearing the way for his candidacy. His only rival is Mohamed Farah Samatar of the Unified Democratic Center, which holds no parliamentary seats. Guelleh won the last presidential election in 2021 with 97 percent of the vote.
The impact
Guelleh is expected to return to office. The broader significance is political rather than electoral, with democracy-tracking and policy analysis groups saying opposition parties operate in a tightly constrained environment. In the run-up to polling day, analysts will watch for any opposition criticism or isolated tensions. The vote also matters beyond Djibouti because the country sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a major global shipping chokepoint, and hosts foreign military bases, including those of the United States, China and France, giving it outsized strategic importance.
April 10 | New Slovenia parliament inaugurated
The newly elected parliament of Slovenia will hold its constitutive session on Friday.
What’s happened so far
In the March 22 parliamentary election, outgoing Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement (GS) won a tight victory of 29 seats, ahead of populist Janez Jansa’s right-leaning Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) that took 28 seats. The vote came amid allegations of foreign interference in the election over a reported meeting between an Israeli private spy firm and the SDS. Authorities have opened a probe into the case while Jansa has denied any wrongdoings. With the close result, the two major parties will need to talk to smaller parties to secure a working majority in the 90-seat parliament.
The impact
According to reports, Golob launched coalition talks last week, attended by all parties with parliamentary seats, including the anti-establishment Resni.ca and a conservative party formed by former Jansa ally Anze Logar. Golob said those in the meeting had agreed to cooperate in preparing intervention measures to protect the economy in the wake of conflict in the Middle East. The constitution of the new parliament and the coalition will be crucial to the country’s direction in the next four years and whether Slovenia will continue its liberal and pro-European policies or shift toward the right.
What Else Matters
Ukrainian drones violate Baltic airspace
Over the past week, multiple drone violations have been reported across the Baltic states and in Finland as Ukraine carried out attacks on oil and gas facilities in Russia’s Leningrad region. Authorities in the Baltics and Finland have identified the majority of these drones publicly as Ukrainian and said they were not intentionally flown into Baltic airspace, attributing the violations to Russian jamming technology. Some crashes have been documented with no injuries reported. A Ukrainian drone struck the chimney of a power plant in Auvere, Estonia, last week, causing no major damage.
Watch for: Ukraine confirmed it has attacked multiple targets in Russia’s Leningrad region, including an oil refinery in Kirishi and an oil terminal in Ust-Luga Port. The full extent of the damage remains unclear but eyewitness footage regularly shows large fires at Ust-Luga following the Ukrainian attacks. A Reuters report, citing market data, said the Ukrainian attacks, coupled with a pipeline attack and seizure of Russian tankers, had knocked out at least 40 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity in the most severe oil supply shutdown in modern Russian history. Ukraine is likely to push its advantage and continue targeting major oil and gas infrastructure in the Leningrad region to double down on the pressure on Russian exports. This in term raises the risk of further inadvertent airspace violations in the Baltic. While the damage has so far been negligible, the drone crashes do represent an escalation and a risk of real-world harm to populations near Russia’s borders in the region.
Factal Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and James Morgan discuss Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and the drones that have strayed into Baltic and Finnish airspace, plus more on elections in the Maldives, U.S. Vice President Vance visiting Hungary, an election in Djibouti, and a new parliament in Slovenia.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors James Morgan, Hua Hsieh, Jess Fino, and Clara Ip Wai Nam. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Israel passes death penalty law for Palestinian detainees
Israel’s Knesset voted 62 to 48 in favor of a law that would apply the death penalty to Palestinians convicted of deadly attacks. Under the new rules, executions would be carried out by hanging within 90 days of the sentence, and death row inmates have no right to an appeal or clemency. Experts say the legislation will almost certainly not be applied to Israelis convicted of similar crimes. The law was championed by Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose Otzama Yehudit party controls six seats out of 120 in the legislature. The bill also won the support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and two other conservative blocs. Israel has only carried out two judicial executions in its history, most recently Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann in 1962.
Watch for: While the bill’s language does not explicitly single out Palestinians, the law will only be applied in Israel’s military courts to start, where the vast majority of defendants are Palestinians from the West Bank. The law is expected to face legal challenges and could go to Israel’s Supreme Court, whose power has been curtailed by Netanyahu. Critics have called the law “discriminatory” at best, while U.N. human rights chief Volker Turk said carrying out such executions would be considered a war crime. Foreign ministers from Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom have condemned the reform. A separate bill is advancing with the goal of applying capital punishment for Hamas militants who participated in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
April 3-10
April 3
- Trump delivers annual budget request to Congress
April 4
- Maldives election and referendum
April 6
- The Masters tournament in Augusta, Ga.
- March Madness championship game
- Trump’s deadline on Iran
April 7
- JD Vance visits Hungary ahead of election
April 9
- Assembly elections in India’s Assam, Kerala and Puducherry regions
April 10
- Djibouti election
- New Slovenia parliament inaugurated
April 11-17
April 12
- Hungary parliamentary election
- Peru general elections
- Paris marathon
- Benin presidential election
- Easter
April 13
- IMF & World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
- Pope Leo visits Africa
- Canada by-elections
April 18-24
April 19
- Bulgaria parliamentary elections
April 20
- Paris cybercrime unit summons Elon Musk for hearing on X
- Boston marathon
April 23
- NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, Pa.
- Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, India
April 25-May 1
April 25
- London marathon
April 27
- U.K.’s King Charles and Camilla visit U.S.
April 29
- Second phase of India’s West Bengal Assembly election
May 1
- International Workers’ Day
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Top Photo: A sign at a petrol station in Bangkok’s Mueang Bang Yom subdistrict reads “out of diesel” on March 22 as the global oil crisis worsens due to the Iranian conflict. (Photo: Chainwit. / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0)
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