Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Mexican security forces launched a daring operation over the weekend, resulting in the killing of a notorious drug kingpin known as “El Mencho.” In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the cartel’s violent reaction, which left dozens dead and terrorized people in Jalisco.
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Week of Feb. 27-March 6
A Look Ahead
Feb. 28 | Rubio meets with Netanyahu in Israel
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
The planned meeting comes amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump is said to be weighing an initial limited military strike to force the country into complying with U.S. terms, with an expanded operation if Iran’s leadership refused to do so. Meanwhile, a mixture of fighter jets, cargo planes, and tankers from the U.S. military have arrived in the region, filling air bases in nearby countries including Jordan, ahead of a possible decision on strikes. Those operations could target not only Iran’s nuclear sites, but expand into hitting leadership targets, which is said to have drawn concern from top military leaders.
The impact
Netanyahu, known to be a supporter of further strikes on Iran, is likely to make a hawkish case for U.S. action in which Israel is likely to participate. Reports say the meeting, scheduled for Saturday, could be pushed back to Monday, with a U.S. official telling AFP that Rubio’s schedule is “subject to change.”
March 2 | IAEA board meeting
The UN atomic watchdog’s board of governors is scheduled to hold a five-day meeting in Vienna starting on Monday.
What’s happened so far
Diplomats on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board are expected to discuss a potential new resolution condemning Iran for its refusal to allow the monitor access over its nuclear sites and enriched uranium stock. This meeting comes amid the ongoing nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. Previous indirect talks have yielded no substantial results, with the United States calling for Iran to cease all enrichment activity and Iran insisting on retaining some production capacity for peaceful purposes. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, has urged the two sides to secure a deal as soon as possible, warning that Iran’s enriched materials are still intact and in need of monitoring despite the Israeli airstrikes on its nuclear facilities last year.
The impact
As war fears grow over recent U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, President Donald Trump warned Iran last week that it must make a deal with the United States over its nuclear program or “really bad things” will happen. Tehran has threatened to respond “decisively” if the region is targeted by military aggression.
March 3 | DHS Secretary Noem to appear before Congressional committees
U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is scheduled to appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday and the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
Noem’s appearances come as her department continues to face intense scrutiny over immigration enforcement actions, including the shootings of at least 14 people by officers since September, including the killing of two U.S. citizens in January in Minneapolis.
The impact
Noem will likely face sharp questions from Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee and the panel’s ranking Democrat, Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, previously criticized Noem’s previous reluctance to testify, saying she was “apparently in no hurry to account for her mismanagement of this national crisis.” She’ll likely encounter some pointed grilling in front of the House Judiciary Committee as well, though Chairman Jim Jordan of Ohio told Fox News that her appearance is part of routine oversight of Cabinet members.
March 3 | Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas Senate primaries
Voters are set to go to the polls across three states Tuesday for the first primary elections of 2026.
What’s happened so far
Polls will open in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas on Tuesday morning ahead of November elections expected to determine control of the U.S. Senate. Early voting has so far outpaced recent past elections in at least parts of all three states. In Texas, Democrats have come out in numbers amid a competitive race between U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico. On the Republican side, polling shows a tight race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, with U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt also in the mix.
The impact
Assuming no run-off elections are necessary, results from Tuesday’s vote will determine who will appear on ballots in each respective state come November, when Senate elections are scheduled to be held. Democrats are hoping to flip North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democrat to the senate in nearly two decades, and have hopes for a win in Texas as well. In Arkansas, incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton faces a challenge on the Republican side, while two Democrats face off for their own spot on the November ballot. On order to take back control of the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four seats.
March 4 | Japan court to rule on Unification Church dissolution request
On Wednesday, Tokyo High Court will decide whether to back a lower court’s order for the controversial “Moonies” church to disband.
What’s happened so far
Officially the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, the Unification Church was founded by Sun Myung Moon in South Korea and campaigns for anti-communism and the unification of North and South Korea. The religious movement derived from Christianity reportedly has millions of followers around the world, with an established presence in Japan since the 1960s. The group is often criticized for “brainwashing” followers into making huge donations and holding mass weddings for couples paired by the church. The Unification Church drew substantial public outrage after its ties with Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party came to light following the investigation into the assasination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In March 2025, a court ordered the disbandment of the church after the education ministry accused the church of using manipulative fundraising and recruitment tactics.
The impact
If the high court upholds the dissolution order, liquidation procedures will begin regardless of whether the group decides to appeal. The Unification Church will lose its status as a religious corporation, which means it can only continue its activities as a voluntary organization and would no longer be eligible for tax exemption.
March 4 | China’s annual “Two Sessions”
On Wednesday, China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), is scheduled to open its annual session in Beijing, followed by the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislature, on Thursday.
What's happened so far
The 2026 meetings come at the start of a new policy cycle, after the Communist Party leadership approved a draft framework for the 2026 to 2030 Five-Year Plan at the fourth plenum in October 2025. More details are expected to be released through the March NPC process. In the run-up to the meetings, three lawmakers tied to the defense, aerospace and nuclear sectors were removed in early February, amid a broader anti-corruption push.
The impact
While the NPC is widely viewed as mainly endorsing policies already set by the Communist Party leadership, the Two Sessions remain one of Beijing’s most important annual signaling events for domestic policy, economic targets and political messaging. Analysts will be watching for the 2026 growth target, policy language on consumption support versus industrial policy and tech self-reliance, and any further cues on personnel, anti-corruption priorities, national security and military modernization as Beijing begins implementing the next five-year plan.
March 5 | Nepal parliamentary elections
Nepal’s population are heading to the polls Thursday for the first time since the former government was toppled in September 2025.
What's happened so far
In September 2025, the government banned several social media platforms, including Facebook and TikTok, a move viewed by the youth population as an attempt to quash opposition. This decision, along with allegations of government corruption, sparked widespread protests amongst Nepali youth. The protests were met with stern backlash – security forces shot and killed at least 19 protesters. After days of protests and widespread unrest, Prime Minister K.P. Oli and several ministers resigned. Thursday's elections are the first parliamentary elections since the House of Representatives was dissolved following the toppling of that government.
The impact
Former Prime Minister Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal has registered for the elections as well as other new parties such as the Rastriya Gen Z Party Nepal. Some have voiced concerns after recent intercommunal clashes between Hindu and Muslim groups in southern Nepal, leading to the implementation of a curfew across parts of Birgunj to maintain order. As more than 900,000 first-time voters head to the polls, it remains to be seen if the results help restore political stability in the country.
March 6 | Paralympic Games begin
The 14th Winter Paralympic Games will open on Friday at Italy's Arena di Verona, as Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo continue their hosting duties following February's Olympics.
What's happened so far
At least 600 athletes from 50 different delegations will compete across six sports at the games, with the opening ceremonies marking the first time the event has been held at a UNESCO World Heritage site. The events wrap up on March 15 at Cortina Curling Stadium.
The impact
Ukraine’s sports minister has signaled the country will not participate in the opening ceremony as Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to compete under their flag and with their national anthem for the first time since the 2020 Summer Paralympics. Poland and Czechia are also expected to boycott the ceremony, while Lithuania, Estonia and the Netherlands will not send officials. Despite these threats, the International Paralympic Committee has said the decision to allow 10 combined slots for Russian and Belarussian athletes “cannot be overturned.”
What Else Matters
El Mencho killed in Mexico
Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known by the alias “El Mencho,” was killed over the weekend during a Mexican military raid in Jalisco. One of, if not the most wanted drug kingpins in the world, he founded and led the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) which expanded across Mexico and internationally throughout the 2010s on the back of extreme violence, even relative to rival cartels, and a professional and heavily-armed paramilitary wing. Through aggressive expansion, the CJNG built arguably the most expansive cartel empire in Mexico alongside its rival Sinaloa Cartel, exporting vast quantities of illicit narcotics and synthetic opioids into the U.S. market annually, along with other revenue streams such as extortion of local agriculture and human trafficking.
Watch for: In the immediate aftermath of Mencho’s death, blockades were erected across the group’s main bases of power in Jalisco and Michoacan, including major cities like Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta. Notably, blockades popped up across 20 regions of Mexico in total, underscoring the vast reach of the CJNG. While the intensity of the blockades have died down in the days since the raid and the United States has lifted shelter in place orders, the situation remains tense and at least 62 people have died in the raid and the aftermath. A continued uptick in targeted attacks on Mexican security personnel is possible, as well as an uptick in violence related to either CJNG infighting due to fragmentation in the wake of El Mencho’s death or inter-cartel violence between the CJNG and rivals, such as Sinaloa or Los Viagras. It is unlikely that El Mencho’s death will tangibly impact cartel operations such as synthetic opioid trafficking, though operational instability through either of the aforementioned pathways remains possible.
Factal Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the killing of Mexican cartel leader "El Mencho" and the deadly narco-terrorism that followed, plus more on Senate primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas, the annual meetings of China's top legislative and political advisory bodies, a Japanese court ruling on the Unification Church dissolution, and the start of the Paralympic Games in Italy.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Alex Moore, Theresa Seiger, Clara Ip Wai Nam, Hua Hsieh, and Jess Fino. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
SCOTUS tariff decision
President Donald Trump blasted the Supreme Court for an "unfortunate ruling" during his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, criticizing a 6-3 decision that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Despite the decision, the president moved quickly to reinstate the duties, announcing a 10 percent tariff on most global imports on Friday, citing his authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he said he would raise that figure to 15 percent, but as of Wednesday the lower rate was in effect.
Watch for: More than 1,000 companies, including shipping giant FedEx, have filed suit seeking refunds of the money paid toward tariffs. It's unclear what legal challenges may loom for Trump's latest tariff play, but some observers have already suggested his latest attempt is also unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the president has also warned other nations not to "play games" on completed trade deals, or risk facing steeper tariffs.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Feb. 27-March 6
Feb. 27
- Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testifies before House committee
Feb. 28
- Taiwan's 228 Peace Memorial Day
- U.S. Secretary of State Rubio set to visit Israel
March 1
- SBA will no longer guarantee loans for small businesses owned by foreign nationals
- Tokyo marathon
March 3
- Texas and North Carolina Senate primaries
March 4
- China's annual "Two Sessions"
- Tokyo High Court to issue ruling over Unification Church dissolution request
- U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem will appear before the House Judiciary Committee
- Apple event
March 5
- Nepal parliamentary elections
- 2026 World Baseball Classic begins
March 6
- Paralympic Winter Games begin
March 7-13
March 8
- Colombia legislative election
- Germany's Baden-Württemberg holds state elections
March 9
- South Korea parliament to finalize bill on U.S. investment fund
- U.S. to auction drilling rights for Alaska reserve
March 10
- Race to replace U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia
March 12
- Belgium national strike
March 14-20
March 15
- Vietnam National Assembly election
- Miami Open
- Kazakhstan referendum on new constitution
- Round 1 of France municipal elections
March 17
- Illinois Senate primaries
March 19
- European Council Summit in Brussels
March 21-27
March 22
- Round 2 of France municipal elections
- Slovenia parliamentary election
- Republic of the Congo presidential election
- Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate holds state election
- Italian judicial reform referendum
March 23
- FIFA final World Cup qualifiers in Monterrey and Guadalajara, Mexico
March 26
- 14th WTO Ministerial Conference
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Top Photo: U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, center, speaks with U.S. Sailors in a weapons handling space aboard the world's largest aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, in the Caribbean Sea on Feb. 8, 2026. The carrier is now reportedly heading toward the Middle East. (U.S. Navy photo)
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