Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of March 6-13
A Look Ahead
March 8 | Colombia legislative election
Colombia will vote Sunday in its first election of 2026, choosing a congress that will likely end up with no clear majority ahead of May’s presidential election.
What’s happened so far
More than 3,200 candidates will compete for 103 seats in the Senate and 183 seats in the House of Representatives, running for terms that span until 2030. The country’s Ombudsman’s Office has warned of potential electoral violence and interference from armed groups that may impede the voting process. Fears of election-related violence have mounted in the wake of the assassination of presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay last year.
The impact
The March 8 elections could ignite widespread political violence and unrest across Colombia, prompting organizations like the European Union to deploy an Election Observation Mission. More than 450 death threats had been documented toward candidates and activists as of late February. Though Colombia’s ELN rebels have declared a ceasefire ahead of elections, analysts have warned of potential violence led by other armed groups such as FARC dissidents or the Clan del Golfo, which could derail the process.
March 8 | International Women’s Day
International Women’s Day, an annual global event that calls for action toward gender equality while celebrating the achievements of women, will be recognized on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Rallies typically mark the occasion, with people taking to the streets to celebrate women and to call for equality between genders — including pay parity — but also for the end of gender violence. According to the United Nations, there are few signs of progress to combat femicide, with 50,000 women and girls being killed by either partners or family members in 2024. This year, the theme is “Give to Gain,” a call to “help forge gender equality through abundant giving,” according to campaigners.
The impact
While demonstrations are usually peaceful, these could take place at the same time as the world faces tensions amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Protests across countries, including in Europe and Latin America, are expected over the weekend, with both pro and anti demonstrations regarding the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
March 9 | South Korea and U.S. to hold Freedom Shield drills
The United States and South Korea will hold their major annual wargame, Freedom Shield, starting Monday and running through March 19.
What’s happened so far
The large-scale combined military drill is held between South Korea and the United States to strengthen defense and deterrence capability against evolving threats. South Korea’s military said they plan to conduct six live field trainings at the brigade-level, 10 battalion-level and six company-level drills this year. Officials from both sides have said the drill would incorporate deterrence scenarios related to North Korea’s nuclear weapons.
The impact
According to several South Korean media reports, Seoul had proposed further scaling back field training exercises this year as the Lee Jae Myun government seeks to resume dialogue with North Korea, but it was met with reservation from U.S. officials. The drills were often denounced by North Korea as “rehearsal of invasion” in the past, so watch for Pyongyang’s reaction.
March 9 | U.S. to auction drilling rights for Alaska reserve
The Trump administration will hold a sale of oil and gas drilling rights across Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The sale is one of at least five sales on the reserve required by President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill over a 10-year period, removing decades-old protections to mining and other industrial development in the region. The Bureau of Land Management will accept sealed bids until Thursday before Monday’s auction.
The impact
The move advances the Trump administration’s drive to increase U.S. oil and gas production and undo drilling curbs imposed during the Biden administration on millions of acres in the reserve. According to the United States Geological Survey, the area is estimated to hold between 4.25 and 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil. While supporters of the move say it strengthens the country’s energy independence and the state’s economy, critics, including environmental activists and tribal leaders, argue that it worsens the climate crisis and threatens wildlife and indigenous subsistence resources.
March 10 | Georgia special election
More than a dozen Republicans are running to succeed U.S. Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene in a Georgia vote set for Tuesday.
What's happened so far
Greene, a Republican, took office in 2021, at the time echoing President Donald Trump’s claim that the presidential election was stolen. But just five years later, in November 2025, she announced her surprise resignation following a growing rift with the president, largely over the Epstein files. Her resignation, formalized in January, forced this week’s special election, in which a total of 17 Republicans are vying to fill her seat, including Clay Fuller, a Trump-endorsed prosecutor.
The impact
Greene’s very public break from Trump and subsequent resignation blindsided both fellow Republicans and her constituents in Georgia’s 14th congressional district. It is unlikely however, to create a window for Democrats to take back a U.S. House seat as the district has consistently voted Republican in recent elections. The vote will likely serve as a litmus test for Trump allies ahead of November’s midterm elections. Fuller is facing challenges from multiple high-profile Republicans in the state, and if no one candidate wins the majority Tuesday, the top two will go to a runoff in April.
March 10 | Imran Khan IHC hearing
Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a hearing Tuesday on a petition to receive medical treatment and his Toshakhana case.
What's happened so far
Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi were sentenced to 17 years in prison in 2025 for a case related to receiving state gifts at undervalued prices. Khan has been in prison since 2023 based on corruption charges, which he has called politically motivated. Khan’s legal team has appealed for him to receive treatment at Shifa International Hospital, following reports noting he has only 15 percent vision left in his right eye, according to his lawyer. The Islamabad High Court will also hear the appeal seeking to overturn his 2025 conviction.
The impact
Since Khan’s initial arrest in 2023, supporters of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party have frequently clashed with security forces amid demonstrations calling for his release. Authorities sentenced 108 PTI members to prison sentences in 2025 after rulings by a counter-terrorism court. Police and security forces have been accused of opening fire on pro-Khan demonstrators after allegedly being issued with shoot-to-kill orders. The March 10 hearing is likely to be met with demonstrations in support of Khan and possible clashes with Pakistani security forces.
March 12 | Belgium national strike
A national strike will take place in Belgium next Thursday.
What's happened so far
Belgium’s three main trade unions have announced a 24-hour strike and national demonstration set to take place on March 12 to protest against federal budget cuts. This will mark the latest in a string of national strikes that have gripped Belgium to protest the austerity measures imposed by the government of Prime Minister Bart de Wever.
The impact
Belgians will be bracing for widespread impacts to travel coinciding with the national strike. Flight operations at airports, including Brussels and Charleroi, are expected to be heavily impacted on the day, with baggage handlers, air traffic controllers and airport security staff partaking in the strike. Public transportation across Brussels will also be diminished with STIB network staff partaking in the walkout and demonstrations. Recent rounds of national strikes in Belgium also resulted in large-scale demonstrations taking place across Brussels so expect further disruption to traffic.
What Else Matters
Iran war
The military conflict initiated by Israel and the United States against Iran is nearing the end of its first week with continued expansion of battle fronts and mounting death tolls, especially in Iran and Lebanon. The war’s goals remain unclear, increasing focus on each side’s ability to sustain fighting while managing ammunition stockpiles and absorbing losses on the ground.
Watch for: Israel and the United States are vowing heavier attacks deeper into Iranian territory, with President Donald Trump stating on Monday that, “the big wave hasn’t even happened. The big one is coming soon.” Meanwhile, Iranian drone attacks have gone beyond military and civilian targets in Persian Gulf nations, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Syria, expanding to Cyprus and Turkey. At risk are vast oil and natural gas fields in addition to electricity, water and transportation infrastructure that sustain tens of millions of the region’s residents. As the United States and others attempt to repatriate citizens after issuing a “depart now” advisory across most of the Middle East, Trump claims there’s no supply shortage of weapons, as are the Iranians, who’ve claimed they’ve prepared “for a long war.”
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
March 6-13
March 6
- Paralympic Winter Games open
March 8
- Colombia legislative election
- Germany's Baden-Württemberg holds state elections
- International Women’s Day
March 9
- South Korea parliament to finalize bill on U.S. investment fund
- U.S. to auction drilling rights for Alaska reserve
- U.S. and South Korea begin Freedom Shield drills
March 10
- Race to replace U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia
- Imran Khan IHC hearing
March 12
- Belgium national strike
- Teachers strike in Colombia's Bogota
March 14-20
March 15
- Vietnam National Assembly election
- Miami Open
- Kazakhstan referendum on new constitution
- Round 1 of France municipal elections
March 16
- Myanmar's new junta-backed parliament to convene in Naypyidaw
March 17
- Illinois Senate primaries
March 19
- European Council Summit in Brussels
March 21-27
March 22
- Round 2 of France municipal elections
- Slovenia parliamentary election
- Republic of the Congo presidential election
- Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate holds state election
- Italian judicial reform referendum
March 23
- FIFA final World Cup qualifiers in Monterrey and Guadalajara, Mexico
March 24
- Danish general election
March 26
- 14th WTO Ministerial Conference
March 28-April 3
April 1
- India begins first phase of 2027 Census
April 2
- Passover
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Top Photo: U.S. Airman assigned to the 1st Special Operations Squadron oversees the aerial refueling of a CV-22 Osprey from an MC-130J Commando II during a training mission as part of Freedom Shield 23 over the Sea of Japan in March 2023. (Photo: U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Trevor Gordnier)
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