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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal this week, calling it “unacceptable,” and said the ceasefire is “on life support.” In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss the growing concern over the cost of the war, and the trade deals some U.S. adversaries are working on with Iran to soften the impacts from the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Week of May 15-22
A Look Ahead
May 15 | Indian PM set to embark on 5-nation visit
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will set off on a tour of the Middle East and Europe starting Friday, visiting the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy through May 20.
What’s happened so far
Modi’s trip comes after weeks of conflict that has throttled energy flows out of the Middle East, as well as the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC, both key issues for India as a net importer of energy. It also follows a massive free trade deal finalized between India and the European Union earlier this year, with Modi hoping to deepen economic ties during the European leg of his tour.
The impact
With Modi urging more fuel austerity measures amid “global crisis,” Delhi will be attempting to balance relations with the UAE and Iran alike to weather out a growing fuel crunch. Modi is also expected to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi during a Delhi-hosted two-day meeting of BRICS foreign ministers that started Thursday.
May 15 | Nakba Day pro-Palestinian protests
A number of pro-Palestinian protests are planned across Europe and the United States starting Friday, the day Palestinians mark the loss of their land after the birth of Israel in 1948.
What’s happened so far
Demonstrations have been taking place during the Eurovision contest happening in Vienna, with groups opposing the participation of Israel in the event. Israel passed this week to the next stage, which means it will likely be participating in the final. The eve of the final falls on Nakba Day, which could prompt further protests. Elsewhere in London, a demonstration is planned for Saturday.
The impact
Demonstrations can be expected in major cities worldwide. The demonstration in central London is usually very well attended, with thousands of people taking part in last year’s protest. In Austria’s capital, a large police deployment is likely ahead of the Eurovision final. Authorities have warned that heightened airport security is expected, as well as more security near the city hall. In Israel and Palestine, unrest can also break out, particularly in the West Bank.
May 16 | Louisiana primary election
Voters in Louisiana will weigh in on a contentious U.S. Senate race and five proposed constitutional amendments on Saturday, but the state’s six House seats remain in flux following a Supreme Court ruling last month.
What’s happened so far
Gov. Jeff Landry suspended voting in House races — despite more than 45,000 ballots cast early — after the nation’s highest court found the state’s old congressional maps were an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, a decision that has sparked redistricting across much of the southern United States to remove majority-minority districts. While those primaries are on ice, incumbent Bill Cassidy is locked in a tight battle with Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming in the Republican Senate race, and potential changes to the state constitution on issues including teacher pay, business taxes and judicial retirement ages are up for approval.
The impact
It’s unclear when primaries under new congressional maps will be held, as state lawmakers debate potential changes that will likely shift the partisan balance of both seats currently represented by Democrats toward Republicans. Meanwhile, polling suggests a GOP Senate run-off is nearly certain.
May 17 | Italian general strike
Workers across Italian transport, education and healthcare sectors are set to strike for 24 hours starting Sunday night.
What’s happened so far
Italian trade union Unione Sindacale di Base (USB) called for workers across Italy to strike as part of a protest movement against both war and rearmament policies. USB has cited Israel’s actions in the Middle East as an impetus for the call to action, arguing that both Israel and the United States are plunging the world into a “permanent war. Schools, public transport, healthcare and public administration are likely to all be majorly affected by the strike.
The impact
The strike is set to take place between 9 p.m. on Sunday and 9 p.m. on Monday, with widespread disruptions across transport infrastructure. Only emergency rooms in hospitals are expected to remain open as appointments may be canceled. Classes may also be suspended in schools across the country.
May 19 | Taiwan legislature to vote on impeachment against President Lai
Taiwan’s legislature will gather to vote on whether to impeach President Lai Ching-te on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
The opposition-controlled legislature, mainly the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party, have brought forth the vote, accusing Lai of violating constitutional norms over his refusal to promulgate a major fiscal bill that would have distributed larger shares of the public revenue to local governments. This marked the first time in contemporary Taiwanese history that a president refused to sign a bill passed by the parliament. The vote requires a two-thirds majority for the impeachment to advance, what many analysts believe to be an unlikely outcome.
The impact
The impeachment vote is largely seen as a symbolic campaign and signifies a broader power struggle after the country’s 2024 elections. Lai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party, won the presidency but the opposition coalition controls the legislature, with the two sides divided over budget powers, legislative oversight and the balance between the parliament and the presidency.
May 19 | Annual Washington Conference on the Americas
On Tuesday, the Americas Society/Council of the Americas will host government officials, business leaders, and other high-profile figures from the Western Hemisphere in Washington, D.C., at a time of major upheaval in the region.
What's happened so far
For more than 50 years, the conference has brought together some of the most influential people in North America and Latin America, giving them the opportunity to sway policy and set agendas for the following year. This will be the first such conference since the toppling of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, which has had a significant impact on businesses in the region. It also comes a few months before the joint review of the USMCA trade agreement, which replaced NAFTA in 2020.
The impact
The conference, which is hosted by a group that promotes free trade, helps keep the region integrated while trying to drive economic growth. It will have to contend with how things have changed in Venezuela, especially as President Donald Trump floats adding it as the 51st state, as well as the continuing rightward lean of many Latin American countries.
May 21 | NOAA to announce 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is set to release its Atlantic hurricane season forecast next Thursday.
What's happened so far
Last month, researchers at Colorado State University predicted the season would see slightly below-average activity, similar to that seen last year. Though no hurricanes reached the United States then, officials noted that Tropical Storm Chantal — one of 13 named storms last season — killed six people and caused millions of dollars worth of damage in the Carolinas. The year also saw one of the strongest hurricanes to ever make landfall when Hurricane Melissa reached Jamaica in October, devastating the region and killing dozens of people.
The impact
Next week’s release is expected after meteorologists said an El Niño is anticipated in the coming months, likely impacting hurricane activity. While the outlook will shed light on what impacts to expect this hurricane season, there are other unknowns, including possible changes to the federal government’s response. Last week, a council appointed by President Donald Trump proposed sweeping changes to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, though many of the changes would require congressional action. The president last week nominated Cameron Hamilton to lead the agency.
May 21 | Judges strike in Dominican Republic
Judges in the Dominican Republic are set to strike across the country on Thursday after several years of wage increase requests have gone unanswered.
What's happened so far
The strikes comes after 333 judges requested implementation of a 2022 compensation and benefits agreement including higher salaries, better working conditions and merit promotions. They claim repeated calls in 2024 and 2025 were essentially ignored. The Judiciary has called for calm, acknowledging concerns while claiming some improvements have already been made. At the same time, judicial organizations have reacted differently. The Dominican Republic Judges Association distanced itself from the strike, calling the initiative “irresponsible.”
The impact
The Association of Dominican Judges for Democracy (JUDEMO) have lost 61 members so far after they tendered their “irrevocable” resignations following a statement from the body that distances themselves from the work stoppage. The former members outlined three points in a statement: JUDEMO made the statement without input from its members, they belittled the demonstration and they’ve been silent across years of neglect from the Judiciary.
What Else Matters
U.K. prime minister faces resignation calls
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has seen off a slow-moving attempt to push him from office that fizzled Tuesday when no major challenger came forward. Calls for Starmer to set out a departure timetable came only days after a bruising defeat for the Labour Party in local and devolved elections. In a crunch Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, he said no official challenge had been filed, and if it was then he would fight it. Starmer’s team was regarded to have won the day, ahead of a ceremonial roadblock in the State Opening of Parliament on Wednesday. Starmer met briefly with Health Secretary Wes Streeting, whose camp was blamed for being behind scores of letters from lawmakers calling for a timetable, as well as a slew of junior ministerial resignations.
Watch for: No members of the Cabinet have resigned, with top figures including finance, interior and foreign ministers all remaining on Starmer’s side. Streeting is expected to be first out of the gates as early as today, with reports suggesting he will resign and directly challenge Starmer, having exhausted the slow-motion campaign, but he runs the risk of drawing ire for running too early. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester widely regarded as a frontrunner, is said to want the job but is locked out as he’s not a member of Parliament. For Burnham, the race would have to start with the resignation of an MP in his area to let him take a seat. Whoever runs, a significant part of the party and its influential core of MPs will not be happy. A laundry list of candidates will likely emerge to make their case to Labour Party members, potentially setting up an unprecedentedly large field that Starmer is sure to stand in.
Iran war
The United States is facing surging inflation and increased public discontent with administration policies amid the continued impasse in negotiations to end the war with Iran. President Donald Trump rejected the latest Iranian proposal, which reportedly offered concessions on nuclear enrichment and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for U.S. recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway and money to rebuild its damaged infrastructure.
Watch for: Amid the standoff, settlement of the U.S.-Iran dispute may hinge on intervention from U.S. adversaries China and Russia. Trump is in China this week to discuss bilateral trade and investment with the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, but one that also depends on supplies from the other Persian Gulf nations prevented from shipping their product through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is renewing his country’s offer to store Iranian uranium stockpiles as part of a potential deal to end the conflict. Israel, which started the war with its American ally on Iran in late March and continues to attack Lebanon, is lobbying for more military action until Iran ends its nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, and stops support for anti-Israel militias around the Middle East.
Listen to the Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss the Iran war impasse and growing public concern, plus more on a primary election in Louisiana, a general strike in Italy, Taiwan’s legislature voting on impeachment against President Lai, and NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Joe Veyera, Michael Archer, Awais Ahmad, and Theresa Seiger. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
May 15-22
May 15
- Indian PM set to embark on 5-nation visit
- Fed chairman leaves
- Palestinian 'Day of the Catastrophe'
- Peruvian court sets deadline for counting votes in presidential race
May 16
- Preakness Stakes
- Louisiana primary election
- Stafford by-election in Queensland, Australia
- Possible LIRR strike in New York
May 17
- Andalusia regional election
- Cape Verde elections
- Prayer event at U.S. National Mall
- Academy of Country Music Awards
May 18
- French Open begins
- Italian general strike
- Sinaloa cartel's 'El Mayo' sentenced following guilty plea
May 19
- Taiwan Legislative Yuan to vote on impeachment against President Lai
- Google I/O conference
- NBA Playoffs Conference Finals begin
- Annual Washington Conference on the Americas
- Suspect in Charlie Kirk shooting appears in court
- Primary elections in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Idaho and Pennsylvania
May 20
- South Korea's Samsung Electronics workers planned strike
May 21
- 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast released
- Judges strike in Dominican Republic
May 23-29
May 24
- Cyprus parliamentary election
May 25
- Africa Day
- American Music Awards in Las Vegas
- Mexico expects formal USMCA talks to start
May 27
- Expanded Terminal 2 at Hong Kong International Airport will commence operations
May 29
- Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
- Pam Bondi to testify in House Oversight Committee's Epstein investigation
- Ottawa to begin $8.5 billion rollout for Ontario First Nations to reclaim child welfare
- Alberta Federation of Labour calls for provincewide day of protest
May 30-June 5
May 30
- Champion's League final
- Malta parliamentary elections
May 31
- Colombian presidential election
- Guinea legislative and municipal elections
- Hungary’s Premier-elect Magyar sets deadline for senior officials to resign
- ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons resigns
June 1
- Ethiopia general election
June 2
- Primary elections in Iowa, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota
June 3
- South Korean local election
- Portugal general strike
June 5
- Spanish Grand Prix
June 6-12
June 7
- Armenian parliamentary elections
- Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan, Assembly general election
June 9
- Primary elections in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina
June 11
- Mexico transporters strike
- World Cup begins
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