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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of May 8-15
A hantavirus outbreak aboard a cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean has killed at least three people, sickened several others, and left scores of passengers stranded. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Matthew Hipolito discuss plans for the ship to head for port in Spain’s Canary Islands and the World Health Organization’s assessment of the situation.
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A Look Ahead
May 9 | Victory Day in Russia
Both Moscow and Ukraine proposed ceasefires ahead of the Victory Day holiday on Saturday following a recent uptick in Ukrainian attacks on Russian cities and oil and gas infrastructure.
What’s happened so far
The Russian Defense Ministry announced a ceasefire with Ukraine to be enacted on May 8-9, coinciding with Victory Day events in Russia. In the event Ukraine violates the proposed ceasefire on those dates, the Kremlin said it will launch a missile strike on central Kyiv. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the Ukrainian government had not been officially approached regarding the Kremlin’s proposed ceasefire, but said Ukraine would observe a truce from midnight on May 6. After the Ukrainian ceasefire began, Kyiv reported a Russian attack, using 108 drones and three missiles.
The impact
During previous ceasefires, both sides have accused the other of multiple violations and there is no evidence to suggest this one will be any different. It is very likely that any attempt by Ukraine to strike the Moscow region on May 8 or May 9 will be used by the Kremlin as justification for a large-scale retaliation on Kyiv.
May 9 | New Hungarian prime minister sworn in
Hungary’s Peter Magyar is expected to be sworn in as the country’s new prime minister Saturday after a landmark electoral victory.
What’s happened so far
Magyar’s center-right Tisza party won a sweeping electoral victory in the April general election, defeating incumbent Viktor Orban and ousting his Fidesz party. Tisza won a two-thirds majority, giving it broad authority to reshape the country, including the power to amend the Constitution if necessary. Magyar, the former Fidesz insider turned popular challenger, will lead the new government and has already made his picks for the country’s top jobs, expanding the country’s cabinet from 12 seats to 16 in an effort to decentralize power. Magyar has pledged to reform the country’s government but also the media, promising reform of pro-Orban state broadcasters in fiery interviews.
The impact
The country’s National Assembly is expected to convene Saturday for the parliament’s inaugural session and is then expected to elect Magyar as prime minister on the same day, a break from tradition as he seeks a swift end to the Orban government. Magyar has asked the country’s president and senior judges to resign, calling them puppets of Orban. Orban has relinquished his seat in parliament but is set to continue as Fidesz leader, in opposition to Magyar.
May 11 | Deadline for SCOTUS stay on abortion drug
A U.S. Supreme Court order allowing access to a widely used abortion drug by mail is set to expire Monday.
What’s happened so far
The Supreme Court last week paused a ruling issued earlier by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit that barred abortion providers from prescribing mifepristone remotely nationwide. The ruling came after Louisiana sued the Food and Drug Administration, arguing that allowing the drug to be prescribed through telemedicine circumvented the state’s abortion ban. The Supreme Court set a Thursday deadline for Louisiana and the FDA to respond.
The impact
The FDA first approved mifepristone, which is typically used in a two-drug regimen with misoprostol, as safe to terminate pregnancies in 2000. Data shows medication abortion accounts for some 65 percent of all abortions in the United States, and virtual clinics are playing a growing role in abortion access. In response, conservative states have cracked down on abortion pill access. If prescribing mifepristone online is deemed illegal, medical providers may turn to using misoprostol — which was originally approved to treat gastric ulcers — on its own.
May 12 | Belgium national strike
A national strike action is scheduled to take place across Belgium on Tuesday to protest government policies.
What's happened so far
The country has seen several general strikes over the past year, with the most recent one in March. This time, the grievance is increasing energy prices, a decline in people’s purchasing power and the government's pension reform plan. According to the proposed reform, pilots should continue working until the retirement age of 66, contradicting the European Union Aviation Safety Agency rules.
The impact
Disruption across Belgian public transport is expected, with international flights at Brussels airport likely to be interrupted. Schools and other public services will also be impacted. A large demonstration is planned in central Brussels on the day, which could cause additional unrest in the capital.
May 12 | Bahamian general election
The Bahamas will hold an early general election on Tuesday, weeks after Prime Minister Edward Davis dissolved Parliament.
What's happened so far
The election was called several months early with the vote not due until mid-October. Davis’ ruling Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) is seeking a second term in a country where no prime minister has been reelected since 1997. The election is expected to be mainly a contest between the PLP and the opposition Free National Movement (FNM), though the Coalition of Independents has also drawn attention during the campaign. The United States plans to deploy accredited embassy observers after FNM leader Michael Pintard raised concerns about possible voter fraud and the accuracy of the voter register, a claim the election chief contested.
The impact
Cost of living is likely to be one of the central issues as the election announcement came the same day the government scrapped the VAT on unprepared grocery items to ease affordability pressure. Independent observation by the Organization of American States, Commonwealth and U.S. Embassy will likely increase scrutiny of any claims about polling or voter-register problems.
May 12 | Eurovision in Vienna
Eurovision will take place in the Austrian capital over a five-day period starting Tuesday.
What's happened so far
Held by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), the 70th anniversary of the Eurovision has been embroiled in controversies. Following accusations that Israel allegedly unfairly boosted the second-place finish of its 2025 contestant Yuval Raphaek, members of the EBU passed new rules to discourage governments from influencing the competition but stopped short of excluding Israel. Five countries have pulled out of this year’s contest in protest: Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland, Slovenia and Iceland. Spain’s RTVE said the war in Gaza and “Israel’s use of the contest for political purposes, make it increasingly difficult to maintain Eurovision as a neutral cultural event.”
The impact
The boycott by Spain, one of the “Big Five” countries that make the largest financial contribution to Eurovision, as well as two of Europe’s wealthiest countries, has led to concerns of less sponsorship and audience for the event. Austria’s national broadcaster ORF admitted the loss of the four countries would be felt but would not prevent a successful show.
May 13 | U.K. King’s Speech
The U.K. government, led by Labour’s Keir Starmer, will introduce its legislative agenda for the year at the State Opening of Parliament Wednesday in a speech read by King Charles III.
What's happened so far
The new parliamentary session will begin amid plunging popularity for Starmer, who has faced months of criticism over his appointment of Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as U.S. ambassador in 2024. The potentially final test for his term was Thursday’s local elections — vote counting is still ongoing, but Starmer’s Labour is expected to take a major hit.
The impact
After a debate, the House of Commons will vote on the King’s Speech in what is seen as a test of confidence in the government, though they rarely lose. Starmer’s team may be hoping that the quick turnaround between local elections to the King’s Speech will move the news cycle along from likely unfavorable local election results, but some analysts say it is probably a matter of when, not if, Starmer will be unseated.
May 14 | Trump meets Xi in Beijing
U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit China on Thursday for two days of in-person meetings and pageantry after his initial state trip was delayed by the U.S. war in Iran. The last U.S. president to visit Beijing was also Trump in his first term, with the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic and efforts by the Biden administration to shore up alliances, including Indo-Pacific ties, making a China visit a low priority.
What's happened so far
The start of Trump’s second term saw a flurry of tariffs on China, which responded with reciprocal measures, leading to a tit-for-tat escalation that led to months of trade war and talks through most of 2025. A year-long trade truce was agreed to at a meeting in South Korea in October 2025, including dropping levies on Chinese exports to 47 percent, with China agreeing to drop rare earth metal export controls.
The impact
This visit will be taking place under the shadow of the Iran war, where China is seen as an interlocutor of sorts, giving it some perceived leverage in the room with Trump, whose war actions are threatening to upend global economic safety. China is directly impacted as almost half of its energy imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Bilateral trade is expected to be Trump’s priority at the summit with Taiwan — a long-standing U.S. ally — is also expected to be on the table as a bargaining chip, making it harder to predict what Trump will be willing to compromise on.
May 15 | Fed chairman to leave post but continue on board
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will leave his post when his term ends Friday but will stay on the board in an unusual move, citing legal challenges put forth by President Donald Trump. Powell has said he will not leave the Federal Reserve until a probe into his involvement around funds related to the renovations of offices is “well and truly over with transparency and finality.”
What's happened so far
The decision is controversial. If Powell does stay on, it would break with long standing tradition and mark the first time a chairman has chosen to continue in a governance role since Marriner Eccles in 1948. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said Powell is making a “significant mistake” as he would break “75 years of precedent.” Trump has continued his pressure on Powell in recent days, releasing a meme of the chairman falling into a dumpster. Despite U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro ending the investigation into Powell, she reiterated the office could reopen the inquiry if the facts warrant, leaving Powell what they call “no choice” but to stay.
The impact
The nomination of new chairman Kevin Warsh moved forward after North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis threatened to block the post if the investigation into Powell went ahead. Warsh has promised “regime change” at the office, hinting at moves that more closely align with Trump’s push to slash rates. But Powell’s continuance may temper those plans, as analysts fear a “two popes” scenario, despite the incumbent saying he has no plans to be a “dissident.” This uncertainty comes at a time when members of the reserve disagree on how to tackle rising inflation. Officials held the benchmark federal-funds rate steady at between 3.5 and 3.75 percent, but four members dissented on the decision, as tariffs and looming murkiness about how a restrained oil supply will affect the economy impacts direction.
What Else Matters
Hantavirus disease outbreak
A cluster of hantavirus, which causes severe and potentially fatal respiratory and renal disease, has been reported aboard the M/V Hondius, a cruise ship carrying 147 people of 23 nationalities that departed in April from Ushuaia, Argentina. At least eight infections are confirmed or suspected so far, with three people killed. All confirmed infections have been the Andes virus strain of the virus, which killed 11 people in Argentina in 2018 and is among the easiest to spread among humans. The ship made a call at St. Helena, a British territory, and an infected passenger flew to Johannesburg before dying at a hospital. Another sick passenger disembarked at Ascension Island, and another still disembarked at St. Helena before flying home to Switzerland, where he presented to authorities upon learning of the outbreak. Three people were removed from the vessel and are en route to the Netherlands for treatment. The vessel has implemented safety protocols and is currently en route to Grenadilla in the Spanish Canary Islands. There, Spanish medical teams will receive, examine and transfer home the passengers and crew.
Watch for: Person-to-person transmission of the disease is rare, and the WHO assesses the risk to the global population as low. But it is possible, especially with the Andes virus strain, and mortality rates can be significant. For that reason, any indication of broader spread among the population should be treated seriously. Contact tracing is underway to identify and notify people in contact with infected individuals on St. Helena, aboard the flight to Johannesburg that an infected passenger flew on, and who were in contact with the Swiss passenger. The WHO currently believes that the first passenger to become infected contracted the disease before boarding at Ushuaia, Argentina.
Forecast podcast: Hantavirus-hit cruise ship heads for Canary Islands as fifth case confirmed
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Matthew Hipolito discuss the deadly hantavirus outbreak affecting a cruise ship in the Atlantic Ocean, plus more on Victory Day in Russia, a U.S. Supreme Court deadline on an abortion drug, a national strike in Belgium, and U.S. President Donald Trump headed to China.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Matthew Hipolito, James Morgan, Theresa Seiger, Jess Fino, and Halima Mansoor. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Hormuz standoff
The United States is reversing course on its latest attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after it was met with an Iranian military attack that fired on U.S. Navy ships and stuck at least one commercial vessel that attempted to exit the territory outside of the route and procedures Iran imposes. Israel-allied United Arab Emirates also came under alleged Iranian aerial attacks, though Iran later denied involvement, with a projectile hitting one of the country’s biggest oil depots. Despite the escalation, the United States maintains Iran didn’t violate the ceasefire and the nearly month-old agreement is intact.
Watch for: More than two months after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where an estimated one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, the United States and Iran continue to grapple with mounting economic losses as a result of their standoff. Iran is struggling to keep its economy afloat amid rampant inflation and as revenue from oil and other exports dries up due to the U.S. blockade. And with oil prices resuming their ascent toward all-time records and highly consequential U.S. midterm elections looming in six months, the Trump administration appears hesitant to restart the unpopular war. Among U.S. allies in the Middle East, Israel and UAE are increasingly calling for a resumption of attacks on Iran. Pakistan-mediated peace talks that started with the ceasefire last month may resume as early as next week, though there’s little indication of progress on terms since the Islamabad meeting.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
May 8-15
May 8
- 48th ASEAN Leaders' Summit
- Costa Rican President-elect Laura Fernández's inauguration ceremony
- Victory in Europe Day
- IMF meeting on Pakistan
May 9
- Asian Cup draw
- Russia's Victory Day
- New Hungarian PM sworn in
May 10
- Singapore unveils national alert system
May 11
- Deadline for SCOTUS stay on abortion drug
- White House correspondents' dinner shooting suspect in court
- First court appearance for former FBI Director James Comey
May 12
- Eurovision in Vienna
- Belgium national strike
- Bahamas elections
- Cannes Film Festival begins
- Congressional primary elections in Nebraska and West Virginia
- Court hearing on U.S. government intention to deport Kilmar Ábrego Garcia to Liberia
May 13
- U.K. King's Speech
May 14
- Trump visits China
- Jerusalem Day in Israel, including controversial flag parade
May 15
- Fed chairman leaves
- Palestinian 'Day of the Catastrophe'
- Peruvian court sets deadline for counting votes in presidential race
May 16-22
May 16
- Preakness Stakes
- Louisiana primary election
- Stafford by-election in Queensland, Australia
May 17
- Andalusia regional election
- Cape Verde elections
- Prayer event at U.S. National Mall
- Academy of Country Music Awards
May 18
- French Open begins
- Sinaloa cartel's 'El Mayo' sentenced following guilty plea
May 19
- Taiwan Legislative Yuan to vote on impeachment against President Lai
- Google I/O conference
- NBA Playoffs Conference Finals begin
- Annual Washington Conference on the Americas
- Suspect in Charlie Kirk shooting appears in court
May 20
- South Korea's Samsung Electronics workers planned strike
May 21
- 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast released by NOAA
May 23-29
May 24
- Cyprus parliamentary election
May 25
- Africa Day
May 29
- Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
May 30-June 5
May 31
- Colombian presidential election
- Guinea legislative and municipal elections
June 1
- Ethiopia general election
June 3
- South Korean local election
- Portugal general strike
June 5
- Spanish Grand Prix
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Top photo: Russian soldiers march in the country's 2020 Victory Day parade in Moscow's Red Square. (Photo: President of the Russian Federation)
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