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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Coordinated attacks in Pakistan’s Balochistan region left scores dead last week and the restive province on edge. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss the resurgence of the rebels’ so-called Balochistan Liberation Army and the risk of more attacks in the region.
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Week of Feb. 6-13
A Look Ahead
Feb. 7 | Haiti’s Presidential Transitional Council mandate ends
On Saturday, Haiti’s Presidential Transitional Council will have fulfilled its tenure, ending the group’s non-renewable supervisory role in national affairs.
What’s happened so far
In recent weeks, as the deadline approached, members of the council moved to oust interim Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé in a decree condemned by the United States as further destabilizing the country. The council’s initial mandate included choosing a provisional electoral commission and national security council, but that doesn’t look likely. The commission has, however, chosen Judge Jean Joseph Lebrun to lead the transitional government, establishing a baseline of leadership before the cessation of the transitional council. In late January, the UN voted to extend the mandate of the UN’s Integrated Office in Haiti until January 2027. On Feb. 1, a five-member committee was agreed upon to advise Lebrun. During the meeting, a two-headed executive leadership form was chosen, as the country moves toward elections.
The impact
The initial move to oust interim Fils-Aimé drew steep condemnation from the international community. Worries persist that this may further destabilize the ailing nation, with gangs said to control some 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and central areas. While some members of the Transitional Presidential Council say they will step down, others continue to involve themselves in transition plans, despite warnings from U.S. officials. On Feb. 3, the USS Southland deployed off Haiti’s coast, signaling fears from the United States. For Haitians, this transition is an inflection point, with security being at the top of the agenda and the specter of continued insecurity looming over the beleaguered population.
Feb. 8 | Japan general election
On Sunday, voters across Japan will elect members of the country’s House of Representatives as the new prime minister seeks a fresh mandate to implement change.
What’s happened so far
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the first woman to serve as head of government, called the snap election in January and dissolved the country’s parliament later that month, setting in motion a short campaign as she seeks to turn her personal popularity into parliamentary power. Takaichi, who took office last October, has surprised the country with a string of viral moments as she seeks to shake off the staid and traditional image of Japanese politics and appeal to younger voters, who have seemingly embraced her.
The impact
If Takaichi secures enough seats with her coalition for a parliamentary majority, and polls suggest she will easily do so, it will give her wide latitude to enact reforms, including potential changes to the country’s economic policy. This would mark a stark reversal in fortunes for the governing Liberal Democratic Party, which saw its previous leader resign after two major election losses. Following the election, one of her first priorities will be to pass a budget that was delayed by the parliamentary dissolution, which will be closely watched.
Feb. 8 | Super Bowl
The NFL’s Super Bowl LX will take place in San Francisco on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The game will pit the NFC conference champion Seattle Seahawks against the AFC-winning New England Patriots, a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, considered one of the most memorable championship games in NFL history. Levi’s Stadium, home of the San Francisco 49ers, will play host, marking the rare Super Bowl played outside in a city with cooler climate, and weather forecasts currently show the possibility of some rain.
The impact
Headlining the Super Bowl halftime performance will be Bad Bunny, the genre-bending Puerto Rican rapper and singer credited with helping spearhead the global popularity of Spanish-language Latin trap music over the past decade. Bad Bunny has been an outspoken critic for years of the immigration policies championed by both Trump presidencies and used his Grammy acceptance speech to admonish Immigration and Customs Enforcement as anti-ICE protests continue to grip cities in the wake of back-to-back fatal shootings of citizens in Minneapolis. President Donald Trump, for his part, will not be in attendance this time around after showing up to last year’s Super Bowl, though he has still voiced his criticism of Bad Bunny and will potentially further weigh in on the Puerto Rican superstar following his performance.
Feb. 8 | Thailand snap election
Thailand will hold its parliamentary election Sunday, after Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved the parliament in face of a potential no-confidence vote.
What’s happened so far
Anutin came to power after former Premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed by the Constitutional Court over her handling of border issues with Cambodia in August 2025. Anutin’s Bhumjaithai Party exited the former premier’s coalition and secured the support of the opposition People’s Party. In December, Anutin said he’s “returning power to the people” by calling a snap election, citing the challenges the minority government faced running the country. The dissolution of the house came amid criticism of Anutin and the Bhumjaithai party over their handling of the deadly flooding in southern Thailand, reported disagreement with the People’s Party, as well as renewed border clashes with Cambodia. A total of 500 seats of the house will be available, with 400 constituency seats and 100 allocated on a party-list basis.
The impact
The upcoming election is expected to be a three-way race between Anutin’s conservative Bhumjaithai Party, former ruling party Pheu Thai and the progressive People’s Party. While some analysts say Anutin could potentially capitalize the patriotic sentiment amid the ongoing border tension with Cambodia, several surveys showed the People’s Party leading the polls. The result of the vote is not only crucial to Anutin’s bid to stay in power, but also seen by many as a test for the Shinawatra family, which was the center of Thailand’s politics for more than two decades.
Feb. 9 | Court hearing on sedition case against Bangladesh's ousted PM Hasina
On Monday, a Bangladeshi court will conduct a hearing over sedition charges leveled against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
What's happened so far
The trial relates to Hasina, who fled the country in August 2024 following weeks of large-scale protest that were violently suppressed by the country’s security forces. Multiple court cases have since been filed against Hasina after she fled to India, including the forthcoming sedition case as well as a corruption case that resulted in the former leader being sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison.
The impact
The sedition charges relate to allegations Hasina conspired alongside others to initiate a civil war to oust the interim government that replaced her. Meanwhile, the trial comes as Bangladesh prepares for high-stakes elections on Feb. 12, the first since her resignation. Hasina continues to cast a shadow over the election despite having fled the country, with analysts calling it the first credible vote in more than a decade after she oversaw three questionable elections.
Feb. 9 | U.S. House Oversight to depose Ghislaine Maxwell
Imprisoned Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell will be deposed by a U.S. House committee on Monday.
What's happened so far
Chair of the House Oversight Committee James Comer, R-Ky., said the panel wants to hear from Maxwell, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence for her role in the infamous Epstein sex trafficking ring. Maxwell, however, isn’t expected to share any new details as she is currently asking a court to set aside her conviction. Comer said her lawyers have indicated she’ll invoke her Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination and decline to answer questions.
The impact
David Markus, one of Maxwell’s attorneys, told Comer that having her deposed now would be “pure political theater,” ABC News reports. He also said, however, she’d be “eager” to testify in public if she were to be granted clemency from President Donald Trump. Regardless, Maxwell’s appearance will come less than three weeks before former President Bill Clinton’s expected deposition in front of the same committee.
Feb. 10 | Immigration enforcement officials testify before Congress
The heads of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection, and Citizenship and Immigration Services are slated to appear before the House Committee on Homeland Security on Tuesday, weeks after a pair of fatal shootings by federal agents in Minneapolis.
What's happened so far
The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti drew widespread criticism and calls to overhaul enforcement operations amid a surge initially targeting the Twin Cities and later expanded to all of Minnesota. On Wednesday, border czar Tom Homan announced 700 federal agents would leave the state, after what he called "significant progress" in talks with local officials to coordinate the transfer of immigration targets to federal officers from county jails. That still leaves more than 2,000 agents on the ground in Minnesota, well above the usual 150 permanently stationed in the state.
The impact
Lawmakers are likely to grill the trio on how their agents have both carried out their efforts to detain immigrants in the country without authorization, and their clashes with protesters in places like Minneapolis and Portland. While a brief government shutdown ended on Tuesday following a narrow vote in the House, Congress now has less than two weeks to come to another deal on funding for the Department of Homeland Security. A funding lapse is unlikely to have significant impacts on immigration enforcement, but other functions under the DHS umbrella, including those of the Coast Guard and TSA, are expected to be disproportionately affected.
Feb. 10 | General strike in Argentina
Two major Argentinian workers’ unions will strike Tuesday over a controversial labor reform bill that will be debated in the Senate.
What's happened so far
The organizations have criticized the proposed reform, alleging it undermines basic rights and increases the power of the employer, ultimately leading to greater insecurity in the employment market. Argentinian media describes the labor reform as the largest in over 50 years and its proponents have argued that the legislation will provide greater legal certainty to employers and employees, with changes to severance pay policy, the labor assistance fund and vacation time.
The impact
Public transportation, government administration, banks, waste collection, construction and industrial services are just some of the key sectors expected to be impacted by the strike action. Protests are also expected throughout the country, with the largest taking place in the capital Buenos Aires. Thousands of people participated in the previous protest against the labor reform in December and similar numbers are expected on Feb. 10.
Feb. 11 | Joint Chiefs chairman to convene meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine announced last month a meeting between all top military leaders of the Western Hemisphere on Wednesday to discuss how to tackle drug trafficking.
What's happened so far
The meeting, the first of its kind, was announced just weeks after the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on drug trafficking charges. It followed weeks of deadly airstrikes on suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Leaders attending the gathering are expected to discuss cooperation and “united efforts to counter criminal and terrorist organizations, as well as external actors undermining regional security and stability.”
The impact
While it is yet unclear which countries have confirmed their attendance, the U.S. initiative to convene such a rare event is likely to aim to assert its dominance in the Hemisphere, with experts pointing it the meeting implements Trump administration’s so-called Monroe Doctrine.
What Else Matters
Militant attacks in Balochistan, Pakistan
Nearly 200 militants were killed last week across Pakistan’s Balochistan province in multiple days of military operations and Saturday’s coordinated gun and bomb attacks. The attacks took place across at least nine locations, including the province’s capital Quetta and major port city Gwadar, and left more than 50 people dead. The toll includes more than 20 soldiers and as many as 36 civilians. According to officials, the attacks began simultaneously and targeted security installations, including a Frontier Corps paramilitary headquarters. The militants opened fire, attempted suicide bombings and briefly blocked roads in urban areas. The attack was claimed by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which was founded in 2000 and is believed to have links to previous insurgency movements that go back decades. The BLA has seen a resurgence in recent years, having carried out both small-scale and major attacks since 2021, including a similar series of attacks in August 2024, and a train hijacking in March 2025.
Watch for: In the aftermath of the attacks, the Pakistan Army as well as multiple Pakistani politicians blamed the attacks on India-backed militants, an accusation India categorically denied. Pakistani authorities have introduced several month-long restrictions across the province, including displaying and using weapons, gatherings or processions of five or more people and face coverings. The increase in usage of anti-India claims in official statements speaks to a rift between the two countries that has only grown since the exchange of cross-border attacks in May 2025. It also echoes India’s own accusation against Pakistan for its alleged backing of militant attacks in India. Additionally, as a resource-rich province, Balochistan is host to a number of international projects, including and most notably Chinese ones. These foreign nationals as well as migrant workers from Punjab are often targeted in such attacks, and we can expect to see more attacks. The coordinated attacks also suggest that the BLA and other militant groups in the region have continued to bolster their operation capacity since the resurgence, making the region more volatile than it has been for years.
Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Awais Ahmad discuss the recent militant attacks in Pakistan's Balochistan, plus more on an election in Japan, a court hearing for Bangladesh's ousted prime minister, a general strike in Argentina, and US immigration enforcement officials testifying before Congress.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Awais Ahmad,, David Wyllie, Alex Moore, James Morgan and Joe Veyera. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Rafah crossing reopens
Palestinians are entering and leaving the Gaza Strip through Rafah crossing with Egypt this week for the first time since it fell to Israeli occupation in 2024. Still, Israel continues to hinder the passage of travelers and humanitarian aid through the entry port, allowing only a few people to leave the territory out of an estimated 20,000 in need of medical treatment abroad.
Watch for: The land crossing is being operated under Israel oversight and monitoring of a European Union team working with an Israeli-backed Palestinian militia. Its opening marks progression of a United States-made ceasefire plan that aims to oust militant group Hamas from power and rebuild the territory for tourism and industry controlled by a foreign governing body. A newly installed Palestinian technocratic committee responsible for day-to-day affairs of the territory’s 2 million people has yet to meet or enter Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel’s plans for the future of the land remain unclear, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing never to allow the Palestinian Authority controlling patches of the West Bank to govern in Gaza and even promoting expulsion of Gazans, contradicting the ceasefire agreement.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Feb. 6-13
Feb. 6
- Winter Olympics begin in Milan
- Three-day Basant festival in Lahore
- Potential launch date of NASA's Artemis II
Feb. 7
- Haiti's Presidential Transitional Council mandate ends
- Israeli President Isaac Herzog visits Sydney
Feb. 8
- Super Bowl
- Thailand snap election
- Japan general election
Feb. 9
- U.S. House Oversight to depose Ghislaine Maxwell
- Court hearing for Bangladesh's ousted PM Hasina on sedition case
- UK's Prince William visits Saudi Arabia
Feb. 10
- General strike in Argentina
- ICE, Border Patrol leaders to testify in House, Senate
Feb. 11
- Joint Chiefs chairman to convene meeting of Western Hemisphere military leaders
Feb. 12
- Bangladesh parliamentary election and July Charter referendum
Feb. 14-20
Feb. 16
- Presidents' Day in U.S.
Feb. 17
- Lunar New Year
Feb. 18
- Ash Wednesday
- First night of Ramadan
Feb. 19
- Former South Korean President Yoon to be sentenced over 2024 insurrection
Feb. 20
- Supreme Court to consider President Trump's petition to review verdict of E. Jean Carroll case
Feb. 21-27
Feb. 22
- Laos National Assembly election
Feb. 23
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Feb. 24
- Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine
- Trump delivers U.S. State of the Union
Feb. 28-March 6
March 4
- China's annual "Two Sessions"
March 5
- Nepal parliamentary elections
March 6
- Paralympic Winter Games begin
Top Photo: Air and Marine Operations pilots with U.S. Customs and Border Protection conduct security flight in a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter over Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., in support of Super Bowl LX. (Photo: CBP Photo by Jeff Underwood)
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