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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Moldova’s energy crisis worsened this week when thousands of people were left without gas or heat in the breakaway region of Transnistria. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor James Morgan discuss the cause of the outages, the Moldovan government’s mitigation efforts and why the pro-Russian region is scrambling to find alternate means to heat their homes and power their energy system
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Week of Jan. 10-17
A Look Ahead
Jan. 10 – Pakistan’s national airline resumes flights to Europe
Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) will resume flights to Europe on Friday, after the EU aviation regulator lifted a four-year ban on the carrier.
What’s happened so far
PIA was suspended from flying to Europe in June 2020, after an investigation found human error by the pilots and air traffic control was responsible for a plane crash in Karachi that killed nearly 100 people. Allegations then erupted that the licenses of nearly a third of the airline’s pilots were invalid, though the accusation was later refuted by the country’s civil aviation authorities. Though Pakistan’s government said it is committed to privatizing the debt-ridden airline, a deal fell through in November after a potential buyer reportedly offered a fraction of the asking price. In a statement last weekend, PIA announced it will resume operations to Europe starting with two flights to Paris weekly, with gradual increase expected.
The impact
While the airline remains banned from flying to the United States, the carrier’s spokesperson also said they will soon approach British aviation authorities for permission to resume routes to the country. Several other international and domestic routes were also introduced and are set to commence in late January. Speaking to local media, Pakistan’s Aviation Minister Khawaja Asif said he is positive that the restoration of flights to Europe would help in privatization of the national carrier.
Jan. 10 – Maduro inauguration
Venezuelan incumbent President Nicolas Maduro will be inaugurated Friday amid controversy surrounding validity of the country’s elections internally and internationally.
What’s happened so far
On July, 28, 2024, Maduro proclaimed victory in Venezuela’s elections, which were ratified by the government-controlled electoral body, setting him up for another six-year term after being in power since 2013. Fatal protests followed the elections amid questions internationally about the lack of transparency as well as fraud accusations from the opposition party that claims leader Edmundo Gonzalez won. Ahead of the inauguration, neighboring South and Central American countries have either chosen to send representatives, such as Mexico and Colombia, or chosen not to attend the ceremony, such as Chile and Argentina.
The impact
Opposition figure Maria Corina Machado has called for anti-Maduro protests on Thursday, setting up a potentially tense atmosphere in Caracas on Friday for the inauguration. Possible protests on Thursday and Friday will undoubtedly be met with force and censorship. The government also said Gonzalez will be arrested if he enters the country, so it’s likely the ceremony will go ahead with no major changes to the status quo.
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Jan. 12 – Comoros to hold parliamentary elections
Voters in the Indian Ocean island nation of Comoros will go to the polls Sunday for the country’s parliamentary elections amid an opposition boycott.
What’s happened so far
The country’s legislature consists of a single chamber, known as the Assembly of the Union, with 33 seats representing a population of less than 1 million people. Twenty-four of those seats will be elected in a two-round system, with a runoff to take place at a later date, and the remaining nine seats are elected by island assemblies. Power is currently held by The ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party, which won a majority in the 2020 parliamentary elections that also saw opposition boycotts.
The impact
The country’s politics are dominated by President Azali Assoumani, who came to power following a coup in 1999 and who was recently re-elected in January 2024 amid allegations of electoral fraud and deadly protests. Opposition parties said they will boycott the upcoming election, meaning it’s expected that his CRC party will be returned to power.
Jan. 13 – Nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries
Iran will hold another round of nuclear discussions on Monday with France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
What’s happened so far
The talks between the three countries, which were signatories to the Iran nuclear deal, and Tehran come just days before the inauguration of President Donald Trump, the person responsible for the death of the nuclear deal back in 2018. Efforts under President Joe Biden to return the United States to the agreement ultimately failed, leaving the status quo of stringent U.S. sanctions on Iran in place, while Tehran steadily escalates and expands its nuclear program.
The impact
Talks between the three European signatories and Tehran have been ongoing as the sides prepare to navigate another Trump presidency, particularly as it pertains to Iran. Trump’s transition team and the Iran hawks he has nominated for key foreign policy positions are now reportedly mulling direct airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, seizing upon Iran’s weakened regional position, expanded nuclear program and the aftermath of a spate of Israeli airstrikes that appear to have significantly degraded Iranian air defense networks and missile production. With a United States return to Iran nuclear deal compliance highly unlikely as Tehran expands its stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched uranium, the high tensions that existed throughout the duration of the first Trump presidency appear likely to resume.
Jan. 14 – Confirmation hearings begin for Trump defense secretary nominee
Former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth will appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, as lawmakers vet President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to run the Pentagon.
What’s happened so far
Trump’s announcement in November that he intended to nominate Hegseth was met with quick pushback from Democrats, citing previous remarks opposing women in combat roles and advocating for the greater privatization of veteran health care, among others. Meanwhile, sexual assault allegations stemming from a 2017 incident, a 2018 email from his mother that accused him of mistreating women, and reporting that claimed his drinking habits had concerned colleagues appeared to threaten his nomination as several Republican lawmakers remained noncommittal. Reports, however, say Senate Majority Leader John Thune has privately told Trump that he believes he has the votes to be confirmed.
The impact
Hegseth can only lose the support of three GOP senators and still win confirmation without any Democratic caucus votes. Republicans have prioritized finishing national-security-related confirmations by Inauguration Day to allow for full Senate votes as soon as possible after Trump takes office.
Jan. 16 – Vanuatu snap election
Voting will begin Thursday in Vanuatu, the politically unstable Melanesian island nation still reeling from a deadly earthquake last month.
What’s happened so far
In November, Vanuatu’s President Nikenike Vurobaravu dissolved parliament the day before a no-confidence vote against caretaker Prime Minister Charlot Salwai was scheduled to happen. The next month, on Dec. 17, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake killed at least 14 people and displaced more than 1,000 more. It also damaged multiple buildings that were used as polling stations. The election, originally scheduled for Jan. 14, was pushed back two days.
The impact
Changes in government are nothing new for Vanuatu. After only having one prime minister between its independence in 1980 and 1991, there have been more than two dozen changes since then. The last few years have been especially turbulent, with this being the fifth change since 2022. But this may be the most significant change in a long time as the country’s new leader will be tasked with rebuilding the infrastructure that came down last month as well as keeping the economy afloat.
Jan. 17 – Iranian president visits Moscow
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian will travel to Moscow next Friday to meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
What’s happened so far
The two leaders are expected to sign an agreement on cooperation focusing on “the sphere of security and defense,” which is set to replace the partnership signed in 2001. According to Russian state media, Pezeshkian and Putin will also touch on a project aimed at solidifying the supply of Russian gas to Iran.
The impact
Since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, Russia has continued to seek closer ties with multiple countries with hostile diplomatic relations with the United States, including North Korea and Iran. In September 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on additional Iranian assets after accusing Tehran of supplying close-range ballistic missiles to Moscow for its use in Ukraine, something that Iran denies. The meeting will also mark the first time the two leaders will meet following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria on Dec. 8, which they both backed for decades.
What Else Matters
Los Angeles wildfires
At least five people have died, several others were hurt, and tens of thousands were evacuated as several wildfires sparked across Los Angeles County starting Tuesday, destroying hundreds of homes in the process. Combined, the Palisades and Eaton Fires had burned almost 27,000 acres as of Thursday morning, with no containment. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands customers across Southern California were without power at various points Wednesday, due to a combination of windstorm damage and shut offs by utilities in an effort to prevent further wildfires.
Watch for: Officials have said they expect the death toll to climb as emergency crews reach areas hit hardest by the fires, while multiple school districts have already opted to cancel classes for the remainder of the week. Though the worst of the fire weather conditions had waned by late Wednesday, the National Weather Service warned critical conditions would remain elevated Thursday and “possibly” Friday, hampering firefighting efforts.
Moldova’s energy crisis
Moldova plunged into an energy crisis after the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine on Jan. 1, with the breakaway region of Transnistria declaring rolling blackouts to try and save power. The Russia-friendly region was particularly reliant on Russian gas imports and, since the halt in supplies, tens of thousands of private households lack gas, and 1,500 apartment buildings lack heating or water. To mitigate the crisis, authorities have implemented rolling shutdowns and the region’s power plant has switched to burning coal supplies, which are expected to run out in mid-February. Ukraine said it will no longer allow the flow of Russian gas through its territory, coinciding with the expiration of a contract with Russian gas giant Gazprom on Jan. 1, 2025. The company could have continued to supply Moldova with gas via the trans-Balkan Turkish stream pipeline, but refused to do so, citing Moldova’s debts.
Watch for: Moldova has accused Russia of using the energy crisis to destabilize the country, capitalizing on public discontent ahead of Moldovan parliamentary elections later this year. The breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russia maintains a military presence of around 1,600 soldiers, remains sympathetic to Moscow and has blamed the Moldovan government for the energy crisis. Although Moldova is not yet an EU member, the country’s government will discuss the situation with the bloc this week in the hopes of finding a solution to the deepening crisis.
Canadian prime minister resigns
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday that he will end his nine-year tenure as head of the Liberal Party. Trudeau will not officially step down until a new Liberal Party leader is chosen at a to-be-announced date before the end of March, when the Canadian parliament returns to session. Trudeau faced calls to step down from members of his own party and the opposition since the end of December when Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over disagreements on the upcoming year’s budget. Trudeau’s approval ratings rest at 22 percent, the lowest since he took office in 2015, as the country grapples with a weak currency relative to the U.S. dollar, economic stagnation and tensions over the highest immigration levels in the G7.
Watch for: Canada’s next federal election must take place before Oct. 20, 2025, but could be called sooner under the next Liberal leader. Current polling with Trudeau as the hypothetical Liberal leader suggests that the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, will win a landslide victory, with the Liberals possibly even falling out of the official opposition. Possible candidates to become the next Liberal leader include Freeland, former central banker Mark Carney and Foreign Minister Melanie Joly. Despite the collapse of the Liberal’s polling numbers, the country’s left-wing New Democratic Party has remained stable in their support, while the Quebec-separatist Bloc Quebecois has seen a modest surge.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 10-17
Jan. 10
- Pakistan’s PIA to resume flights to Europe
- Ex-presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez says he will return to Venezuela to take office
- U.S. Supreme Court to hear arguments on law banning TikTok
Jan. 12
- Comoros to hold parliamentary elections
Jan. 13
- Next nuclear talks between Iran and three European countries
Jan. 14
- Confirmation hearing set for Trump defense nominee
Jan. 16
- Vanuatu snap election
Jan. 17
- Iran’s president to visit Moscow
Jan. 18-24
Jan. 19
- Trump rally in Washington, D.C.
Jan. 20
- Davos Summit
- United States presidential inauguration
Jan. 21
- NYC doctors plan strike
Jan. 25-31
Jan. 26
- Belarusian presidential election
- Australia Day
- India’s Republic Day
- End of Lebanon 60-day ceasefire
Feb. 1-7
Feb. 5
- Delhi legislative assembly election
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Top photo: Former Fox News personality Pete Hegseth (right) will appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, as lawmakers vet President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to run the Pentagon. (Photo: U.S. Marine Corps image by Staff Sgt. Theodore Bergan)
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