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Week of June 27-July 4
A Look Ahead
June 27 – DR Congo and Rwanda to sign peace agreement
Representatives of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda are set to sign a peace agreement on Friday following a breakthrough in talks.
What’s happened so far
Violence has dogged the region for more than 30 years after a devastating series of conflicts that left millions dead, but a recent upsurge in violence and advances by the M23 rebel group has drawn international attention and an effort to prevent further loss of life. An agreement was reached to end the conflict in the eastern DR Congo following three days of talks in mid-June mediated by the United States and Qatar, following an earlier accord signed in late April in which both sides pledged to respect the other’s sovereignty. The deal has provisions for a joint security mechanism to deal with any outbreaks of violence, and could pave the way for Western investment in critical sectors like mining.
The impact
The deal will hopefully see an end to the conflict that has left thousands dead and displaced hundreds of thousands more, according to aid groups. Backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, the agreement will be signed by both parties in the presence of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
June 28 – Budapest Pride banned
Police have banned Budapest’s pride march slated for Saturday, citing the protection of children.
What’s happened so far
The ban was announced on June 19, despite the city’s mayor claiming the municipal event does not require permits from local authorities. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s openly anti-LGBTQ+ government passed a constitutional amendment on freedom of assembly in March that allows the ban of LGBTQ+ gatherings as violations of the country’s 2021 child protection laws, which prohibit the “promotion” of same-sex relationships and LGBTQ+ identity to people under 18 years of age. Such laws have been contested by the EU for discrimination against sexual orientation and gender identity. The current legal framework also allows for authorities to use facial recognition software to identify march attendees in order to impose fines.
The impact
Budapest’s liberal Mayor Gergely Karacsony said the city’s Pride march will go ahead Saturday despite the police ban, saying police lack authority over municipal events organized by the city council. As many as 70 European lawmakers said they will attend the event in solidarity with the Hungarian LGBTQ+ community, along with other representatives from multiple European countries. Human rights group Hungarian Helsinki Committee advised Pride goers to refuse to pay fines issued on the spot, which could go up to €500 ($579 USD), or to appeal any fine notifications received by post.
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June 29 – New York City Pride parade
One of the largest LGBTQ+ civil rights demonstrations in the world will take place in the city that sparked the movement on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Pride originated in New York City as a protest march to commemorate the 1969 Stonewall uprising, when a police raid at a gay bar sparked a riot against authorities. The now-annual event serves as a vehicle not only to demand political action on issues like AIDS and same-sex marriage, but also to publicly celebrate the LGBTQ+ community.
The impact
The New York City Pride March route starts near Madison Square Park, and disperses several blocks away at 15th Street and 7th Avenue. PrideFest, a street fair associated with the event, will also take place on the same day in Greenwich Village. Millions of community members, allies and spectators are expected to attend the march. Volunteers will run operations, and a private security firm will also be present, according to organizers.
June 30 – Myanmar junta temporary ceasefire extension ends
Myanmar’s ceasefire, declared after the devastating March earthquake, is set to expire on Monday, fueling fears of a resumption of full-scale hostilities between the junta and opposition groups.
What’s happened so far
Clashes have been commonplace over the three months following the earthquake, with aid agencies urging all parties to abide by the ceasefire so that relief and reconstruction efforts can continue unhindered. The ceasefire has been extended several times before with ASEAN urging all parties involved to expand the truce beyond zones that had been heavily impacted by the March quake.
The impact
Myanmar’s military, which has ruled through a junta since it seized power in 2021, has been accused of conducting dozens of airstrikes since the earthquake with significant civilian casualties. The military government has also resolved to hold elections in December of this year and has begun preparations for the vote in Shan state and junta-controlled urban areas. Opposition groups and western governments have labeled the plans as a sham and an attempt by the junta to extend military rule. While it is unclear whether the junta and opposition groups will opt to extend the ceasefire, a full-scale resumption of hostilities risks further destabilizing the country and hindering relief efforts.
July 1 – French ban on cigarette smoking in various public places begins
France will implement its most sweeping ban on cigarette smoking to date starting Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Cigarette smoking, long synonymous with daily life in Paris and elsewhere in France, will be banned in practically all outdoor public areas where children may congregate starting next week under sweeping new regulations unveiled by health officials in late May. Among the specific areas of emphasis will be places such as bus stops, sporting venues, beaches and parks. Violators will be subject to fines up to €135 ($157 USD).
The impact
The move follows a sweeping ban on driving across numerous central Parisian streets and represents another move that will impact quality of life in France’s capital. While the number of daily adult cigarette smokers in France has plummeted to historic lows, the practice retains its deeply-embedded cultural significance, with French cinema containing more than double the screen time for cigarette smoking when compared to Hollywood productions. Nonetheless, the French ban reflects broader trends across the continent and mirrors similar bans in Sweden, Spain and the United Kingdom.
July 4 – U.S. Independence Day
Cities across the country are warning people to be vigilant on Friday about possible domestic terrorism threats during Fourth of July celebrations.
What’s happened so far
As tensions ramped up between Iran, Israel and the United States, the Department of Homeland Security issued a National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin through September. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said there aren’t any “credible threats” at this time, but the bulletin does point out “violent extremists” could be mobilized either by Iran’s government or “anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment.” Officials in multiple cities are preparing for everything, including “intelligence related to global events.”
The impact
Despite all this, most experts believe Americans don’t have a lot to worry about for the holiday weekend. Parades and other mass gatherings usually have maximum security and not much can be done differently to protect these festivities more than normally.
What Else Matters
Israel-Iran ceasefire
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran came into effect in the early hours of Tuesday after it was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform. The announcement came after nearly two weeks in which both countries engaged in mutual daily strikes on the other, with Iran saying that more than 600 people were killed and Israel likewise reporting dozens of casualties. In an unprecedented attack over the weekend, the United States also engaged in attacking Iran’s three nuclear sites, which Iran responded to by striking the American al-Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, resulting in no injuries.
Watch for: The next few days will be critical in assessing whether the ceasefire between the two countries will continue to hold. Shortly after the truce came into effect, Israel accused Iran of launching a missile toward the country, which Iran denied, and that also followed a “limited” response by Israel on the country. Aside from these incidents on Tuesday, analysts are hopeful the truce has high possibilities of lasting, especially as reports begin to emerge about the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear program following these two weeks of war. Meanwhile, Israel said its focus will shift back on the Gaza Strip, where dozens of Palestinians continue to be killed daily in airstrikes and in Israeli shootings and incidents while attempting to seek aid via distribution points belonging to the United States and Israel-backed Global Humanitarian Foundation.
Syria explosion
At least 25 people were killed and more than 60 others were injured when an armed suspect entered a Greek Orthodox church on Sunday in east Damascus, Syria, and began shooting at worshippers before detonating a bomb inside the premises. Syrian authorities have said the suspect was affiliated with the jihadist group Islamic State (ISIS), despite no immediate claim of responsibility from the group itself.
Watch for: This incident was significant in that it marked the first terrorist attack in the Syrian capital since the new President Ahmed al-Sharaa took over following the ousting of the former Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024. Dozens of people alleged to have links with ISIS have been arrested in government operations across Damascus over the last few days in an attempt by the new administration to not allow for sectarian violence to take over Syrian politics once more. Critics of al-Sharaa question, however, whether the leader will be able to maintain unity in a country that has been devastated by 13 years of a civil war.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 27-July 4
June 27
- DR Congo and Rwanda to sign peace agreement
June 28
- Budapest Pride banned
June 29
- NYC Pride parade
- Pacific Mini Games in Palau
June 30
- Myanmar junta temporary ceasefire extension ends
July 1
- French authorities announce plans to ban cigarette smoking in various public places
July 3
- Air traffic controllers strike in France
July 4
- U.S. Independence Day
July 5-11
July 6
- 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup final in Houston
July 9
- Taiwan holds Han Kuang military drill
- Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire
July 12-18
July 13
- 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, N.J.
July 15
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taichung
July 16
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Tainan
July 17
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taipei
July 19-25
July 20
- Japan upper house election
July 21
- Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
July 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
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Top photo: A 1969 police raid at the Stonewall Inn, a gay bar in Manhattan’s Greenwich Village led to the Stonewall riots, one of the most important events in the history of LGBTQ+ rights. (Photo: Rhododendrites / Wikimedia Commons)
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