Dave Clark
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Temperatures in Europe soared this week as the first major heat wave of the year rolled in, killing at least eight people and fueling wildfires in several countries. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jess Fino discuss impacts from the sweltering heat, including effects on farming and some unexpected political developments.
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Week of July 4-11
A Look Ahead
July 5 – 2025 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The 2025 BRICS summit will be hosted by Brazil on Saturday and Sunday, as the country holds the presidency of the bloc this year.
What’s happened so far
More than 4,000 participants from 37 countries, including 11 member states and partner countries, are expected to attend this year’s summit. Some major absences like Chinese President Xi Jinping’s due to a “scheduling conflict” and Russian President Vladimir Putin, due to a standing ICC arrest warrant issued in 2023 over the war in Ukraine, have been announced ahead of the event. The meeting will address issues such as technological cooperation, climate change and transitioning to cleaner forms of energy.
The impact
The summit will take place in Rio de Janeiro’s Museum of Modern Art, with Santos Dumont Airport, the city’s main domestic airfield, closed for exclusive use by government and security teams attending the event. All other flights will be diverted to the city’s Galeao International Airport, 20 kilometers away from the city center, meaning longer travel times for passengers and increased traffic in Rio de Janeiro. The city has declared July 7 as a public holiday. Ahead of the main meetings over the weekend, some significant side events will take place on Thursday and Friday in different venues across the city. Some 17,000 civil and military police officers will be deployed to take care of security during the event.
July 6 – Dalai Lama set to reveal succession plan
The Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of Tibetan Buddhism, is expected to speak at a religious conference and share details about his successor as he turns 90 on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The 14th Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959 after a failed uprising against the Chinese government, who took control of Tibet in what it called “a peaceful liberation.” The spiritual leader set up a government-in-exile after settling in Dharamshala and has been advocating for autonomy and religious freedom for the Tibetan people since. While extremely popular and well-repected within the Tibetan public, the Dalai Lama has long been seen by Beijing as a separatist that endangers its rule in the region. Tibetan tradition holds that the soul of a senior Buddhist monk is reincarnated in the body of a chosen child upon his death. While Beijing would likely want to choose a successor of Dalai Lama that adheres to the Communist Party, the Dalai Lama has urged his followers to reject anyone chosen by Beijing and said that his successor will possibly be born in the “free world” outside China.
The impact
Since its annexation of Tibet in the 1950s and through the 2008 unrest, Beijing has continued to tighten its hold on the region by implementing economic, social and religious “integration policies.” After the Dalai Lama gave up his political role in the Tibetan government-in-exile, his reincarnation remains a crucial point of tension between the Buddhist leader and the Chinese government. India’s decision to continue to host the Dalai Lama is also one of the most long-lasting sources of friction between New Delhi and Beijing. The successor plan of the Dalai Lama’s choice and narratives surrounding the topic are likely to not only be significant for Tibetan Buddhism, but also have a profound impact on regional stability.
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July 6 – OPEC+ meeting
OPEC+, the world’s largest petroleum exporting country cartel, will meet on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
OPEC+ countries meet periodically to discuss and agree upon oil production targets across the cartel, which produces approximately 50 percent of all global oil, in order to maximize market share against non-OPEC+ rivals such as the United States as well as maintain price stability. While unconfirmed, it is widely anticipated that OPEC+ will agree on another supply hike to the tune of an additional 411,000 barrels per day.
The impact
If agreed upon, the further production spike would continue a divergence in OPEC+ policy this year to steadily increase production following multiple years of cuts totalling more than 5 million barrels per day. The anticipated August OPEC+ production hikes combined with the ceasefire between Iran and Israel holding have created downward pressure on global oil prices in turn, though continued bearish global economic sentiment leaves potential demand-side price pressures a possibility.
July 7 – Israeli prime minister visits D.C.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed he will make an official visit to the United States and meet with President Donald Trump on Monday.
What’s happened so far
Netanyahu and Trump were in direct coordination in late June when the United States intervened in the conflict between Israel and Iran by launching a series of strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22. Iran then retaliated by striking the U.S. base in Qatar without any casualties, and despite reaching a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, Trump criticized both Israel and Iran on their actions post-ceasefire, urging both parties to “calm down” in a heated comment made to reporters.
The impact
The visit will mark the first time Netanyahu and Trump meet since the U.S. intervention in Iran, with meetings also scheduled with several senior U.S. officials in Washington, D.C., to “close a few things in order to reach a trade agreement.” The visit also comes following suggestions from Trump about the possibility of reaching a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip after nearly 20 months of war that has led to the death of more than 56,500 people. The Palestinian militant group Hamas has also confirmed that mediation talks are continuing with the Israelis, but that talk about a long-term end to the deadly conflict might be on the cards for Trump’s vision of the Middle East, but not for Israel itself.
July 9 – Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire
U.S. President Donald Trump says he’s not considering an extension to his Wednesday deadline for other countries to make trade deals or face higher tariff rates.
What’s happened so far
On April 2, Trump announced a new slate of import tariffs on nearly every country in the world, with a 10 percent baseline for most nations but higher rates on others, depending on a formula based on apparent trade surpluses. The announcement led to a global market crash, in which the Nasdaq saw its biggest loss in a day since March 2020. A week after Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, he said the country-specific reciprocal tariffs would be paused for 90 days, except for China, in order to give time to negotiate trade deals with each nation. Stocks rebounded after that announcement, with the S&P 500 erasing all of its losses on May 13, the day after a minor trade deal was announced with Beijing.
The impact
During the pause, few deals have been made and new reports suggest the Trump administration is focused on making smaller agreements instead of more comprehensive, time-consuming ones. If Trump holds firm and doesn’t extend the tariff pause, the stock market could take another hit similar to the one in April. However, analysts don’t appear too worried, citing the “TACO” acronym: “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
What Else Matters
Europe heatwave
Countries in southern Europe have been hit this past week by a heatwave, with temperatures going above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in Spain, Portugal, Greece and France. Wildfires broke in several countries as a result of the heat, with Greece being particularly affected. A large fire was burning close to the capital Athens on Thursday, leading to evacuations and burnt houses. Elsewhere in the United Kingdom, an amber weather alert was issued last week and extended until this Tuesday due to rising temperatures, which were close to record levels for June and resulted in the hottest start to the Wimbledon tennis tournament on record.
Watch for: While temperatures are expected to drop later this week, more heatwaves are expected to hit the continent in the next few months with summer in full swing. June is usually the coolest month of the summer, but heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent. Britain’s Met Office warned that there is a “clear upward trend” in the number of days of June with temperatures above 86 degrees Fahrenheit, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned “extreme heat is no longer a rare event — it has become the new normal.” Southern European countries, more used to high temperatures, have already put emergency measures in place. Italian officials put 21 cities under its “level three” red alert and banned outside work, while France ordered the closure of schools. Meanwhile, Germany put limits on how much water can be taken from rivers as high temperatures have lowered water levels on the Rhine River.
Thai prime minister suspended
Thailand’s Constitutional Court has suspended beleaguered Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office as it deliberates over allegations of ethical misconduct regarding a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Paetongtarn’s attempts during the call to defuse tensions over a recent border dispute that left one Cambodian soldier killed were seen by critics as too deferential to Hun Sen and critical of Thailand’s army, plunging the country’s fragile democracy into a new political crisis.
Watch for: Paetongtarn is suspended from office until the court makes a decision, and she has 15 days from her suspension to respond to the allegations. The situation remains tense at the Thai-Cambodian land border, most of which remains closed, affecting residents, businesses and workers who rely on reliable cross-border travel. Protests against Paetongtarn have already begun to form, with several thousand people gathering last Saturday in Bangkok.
For more on the Thailand-Cambodia conflict read The Debrief.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 4-11
July 4
- U.S. Independence Day
July 6
- 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup final in Houston
- 2025 BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Dalai Lama set to reveal succession plan
- OPEC+ meeting
July 7
- Israeli prime minister visits Washington, D.C.
July 9
- Taiwan holds Han Kuang military drill
- Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire
July 12-18
July 13
- 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, N.J.
July 15
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taichung
July 16
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Tainan
July 17
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taipei
July 19-25
July 20
- Japan upper house election
July 21
- Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
July 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
July 25
- Former U.S. Congressman George Santos to report to prison
July 26-Aug. 1
July 26
- Recall vote for 24 opposition lawmakers in Taiwan
July 27
- 2025 Tour de France final stage
- Supreme Court’s 30-day pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends
July 30
- Last court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin over hospital stay in lieu of prison
July 31
- Lollapalooza in Chicago’s Grant Park begins
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Top photo: The Dalai Lama, set to turn 90 this week, will speak at a religious conference Sunday and share details about his successor. (Photo: Tenzin Choejor / The Office of His Holiness the Dalai Lama)
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