Factal
Suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fledgling government appears to be losing ground over clashes that erupted in disputed regions along the Cambodian border, after more than a decade of mostly friendly neighborly relations, bolstered in part by dynastic political ties.
When clashes erupted between Thai and Cambodian soldiers in the lush Emerald Triangle region in the early hours of May 28, there were no overt signs tensions over the disputed frontier would escalate. The last significant flare-up had been in 2011 and, in the years since, both governments maintained largely stable ties. But, several weeks in, one soldier is dead, a leaked call between a political heir and a former strongman sparked a political scandal that led to the prime minister’s suspension, and tit-for-tat measures are beginning to strain local economies.
Thailand claims Cambodia dug trenches in the disputed area and fired first that morning. Cambodia, in turn, accuses Thai troops of opening fire near one of its long-established military posts near the Emerald Triangle, a tripoint where Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos meet, also known as Mom Bei in Khmer and Chong Bok in Thai.
The initial exchange of fire prompted troop reinforcement along the border and the displacement of families fearful of getting caught in the crossfire. As bilateral ties sank to their lowest in more than a decade, both countries have turned to nationalistic and economic measures aimed less at escalation and more at disruption.
“The last hot conflict [there] was 17 years ago,” said Factal’s Asia-Pacific Regional Lead Vivian Wang. “So it’s not a particularly well-monitored clash that people are expecting to flare up at any moment.”
Thailand’s military announced a ban on almost all civilian crossings into Cambodia, citing “the current security situation,” leaving access to temples in the disputed areas to local commanders’ discretion. The defense minister attempted to soften the statement a few days later, saying timings were changed but trade, Cambodian students, and patients were allowed. The restrictions are still expected to impact Cambodia’s lucrative casino industry set up along the border, a consequence closely watched by both sides but for competing reasons.
In response, Cambodia said it will not allow cargo to transit through its borders, after initially suspending imports of internet bandwidth, banning Thai movies, and halting trade of fruits, vegetables, and petroleum.
Thailand has a pretty recent history of military coups, in 2006 and in 2014, and both of them involved Shinawatras.”
Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of controversial former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, was suspended from office on July 1 and is facing the threat of a full dismissal just 10 months into her term amid mounting speculation of discord with the country’s powerful military.
Her main coalition partner quit after a leaked call surfaced between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian dictator Hun Sen, father of the current Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and a longtime ally of the Shinawatra family. In the call, she addresses Hun Sen as “uncle” as she appears to bypass military channels to privately reassure him on border concerns, prompting accusations that personal ties are overriding state policy.
“Paetongtarn said she’s being misinterpreted, but I think the damage has been done,” Wang said. “It’ll fuel the fire for nationalists, probably on both sides but definitely on the Thai side … and it’ll give even more weight to speculation that there’s a divide between the Thai government and the military on how to approach the border crisis.”
In a desperate attempt to draw a line under the scandal, Paetongtarn reshuffled the cabinet, taking on the dual role of PM and culture minister, and promised the country will “move ahead strongly” with “a new way of working”.
This, however, proved futile. Thailand’s Constitutional Court voted 7-2 to suspend Paetongtarn from office, while a formal petition seeking her dismissal is under review. Paetongtarn said she accepts the court’s decision but will present her defense within the 15-day deadline, insisting that her intentions were always for the “safety” of Thailand and its soldiers.
But few governments in Thailand complete their terms. Even before the latest clashes, Thailand’s defense minister publicly suggested the military could return to power in a pointed reminder of the country’s history of coups.
“Thailand has a pretty recent history of military coups, in 2006 and in 2014, and both of them involved Shinawatras —Thaksin in the former and his younger sister Yingluck in the latter,” Wang said.” And now, — everyone involved would deny this if asked directly — but there are a lot of reasonable questions to be asked about what’s going on.”
“There is a growing nationalist movement in both countries, and it is driving a lot of this friction right now.”
The origins of the conflict go back more than a century to French colonial rule in Cambodia. The French-drawn 1907 map, which used a different cartographic projection to how Thailand maps its territory, has long been disputed in Bangkok. It places several contested areas, including the 11th-century Khmer temple Preah Vihear, on the Cambodian side of the border.
“The French are the ones who drew the map, and Thailand has disputed it ever since,” Wang said.
In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded Preah Vihear to Cambodia, but Thailand has continued to contest it. Cambodia is now preparing to take the issue back to the ICJ and, this time, it’s not just the one temple but also three additional temples that lie to the juncture’s east.
Thailand claims all four sites fall within its Ubon, Sia Sia Kat, and Surin provinces. Each location offers cultural and economic value, and their status has become further politicized all while bilateral ties hit new lows.
“Their cultures are very intertwined and then they got split off because of borders being drawn,” Wang said. “That type of split means people get very heated about claims of culture. There is a growing nationalist movement in both countries, and it is driving a lot of this friction right now.”
Thai nationalist groups have amplified the dispute online, sparking calls for protests and even military intervention. Hun Sen, as Senate leader, continues to rely on nationalist rhetoric to maintain political relevance and distract from looming U.S. tariffs targeting his son’s administration.
“With all of this nationalism going on, we should be on the lookout for demonstrations, rallies, and protests in both Cambodia and Thailand,” Wang said. “The border situation will obviously remain rather tense, and it’ll be worth looking out for any further changes in border operations on either side as the dispute continues … the tensions might increase the risk of smaller scale clashes, but I think it’s rather unlikely we’ll see outright military conflict.”
Written by Halima Mansoor. Edited by Bada Kim.
Further reading:
- Review Factal’s coverage of Cambodia-Thailand tensions on our topic page (members link)
- Listen to this episode of the Factal Forecast to hear more on the rift between Cambodia and Thailand over border clashes
- This report by the Australian Institute of International Affairs on the impact of US tariffs on ASEAN economies
- Read this analysis on Cambodia’s increasing reliance on China
Top photo: A Thai soldier stands guard at the Ta Muen Thom temple in Surin, Thailand, on Aug. 24, 2013. Cambodia claims the ancient site lies within its jurisdiction and has included it as one of four locations for arbitration in a June 15, 2025, letter to the UN International Court of Justice. (Image/John Shedrick)
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