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Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia continue to rise after the countries’ armed forces briefly exchanged fire on May 28, during an encounter that killed one Cambodian soldier. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Vivian Wang discuss the conflict’s background and why a leaked phone conversation is likely to fuel more nationalistic rhetoric.
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Week of June 19-27
A Look Ahead
June 19 – Juneteenth
Today, for the fifth time, Americans will celebrate Juneteenth as a federal holiday recognizing the end of slavery in the United States.
What’s happened so far
The holiday’s roots can be traced back to 1865, when more than 250,000 enslaved Black people in Galveston, Texas, learned of the Emancipation Proclamation. Juneteenth celebrations began in Texas and later spread to other states. In 2021, while declaring Juneteenth a federal holiday, then-President Joe Biden said the day “reminds us of our incredible capacity to heal, hope, and emerge from our darkest moments with purpose and resolve.”
The impact
This year’s celebrations come amid President Donald Trump’s efforts to roll back diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, and amid economic uncertainty that prompted some companies and governments to pull back their funding of Juneteenth events. Organizers earlier said some events would not be held due to issues like possible inclement weather or problems securing a location. In Bend, Ore., a planned Juneteenth celebration was canceled due to safety concerns amid “today’s increasingly volatile political climate.” Later, another group announced it would organize a Juneteenth celebration with sponsorship from the city and the theme, “Unbothered. Unbossed. Unbroken.”
June 21 – Norway oil sector workers threaten to strike
Unionized offshore oil workers in Norway have threatened to strike starting Saturday if wage negotiations with employers fail.
What’s happened so far
Annual wage negotiations between unions and the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association (NSA) are set to resume on June 20 with a state-appointed mediator after the last round of talks failed in May over general and night supplement rates, according to union Styrke, the biggest of the three involved in the negotiations.
The impact
Some 480 workers are projected to strike if an agreement is not reached by Friday – 175 from Styrke, 193 from the second-largest union SAFE, and 70 from DSO – with an unclear impact on oil and gas activity in Norwegian Sea drilling wells as negotiations could extend over time. The outcome of the negotiations will affect more than 7,000 oil drilling workers. Among the companies that could be impacted by the strike, represented by the NSA in talks, are Transocean, Saipem, Odfjell Drilling, Archer, and Seadrill.
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June 22 – Tokyo metropolitan assembly election
On Sunday, voters across Tokyo will elect representatives to the Japanese capital’s regional parliament.
What’s happened so far
Nine days of campaigning ahead of the election kicked off on June 13, which will see 127 members elected across 42 districts. Some 295 candidates are running for office, and winners will be selected using the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system. The last election, held in 2021 during the coronavirus pandemic, saw the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats, with the regional party Tomin First no Kai coming narrowly behind.
The impact
Populist Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, elected to a third four-year term last year, is seeking to expand her Tomin First no Kai party’s powers by winning the most seats, overtaking the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been bruised by a financial scandal. This vote is a key test of her support, but also a possible signal of how Japanese citizens feel ahead of expected July 2025 elections for the National Diet’s Upper House.
June 23 – India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted
India is expected to lift its airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft on Monday for the first time since cross-border airstrikes were exchanged following a deadly militant attack in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam.
What’s happened so far
The airspace closure was initially set to end in May but was extended by both countries amid diplomatic tensions. Since April, flights operated by either nation have been banned from transiting through the other’s airspace. The restrictions were one of several retaliatory measures taken after the Pahalgam attack, which India blamed Pakistan for being involved in.
The impact
The airspace ban has carried a significant financial burden. Air India estimated losses of up to $600 million over a 12-month period due to longer flight paths and increased fuel costs if the closure remains in place. Monday’s reopening could ease those economic pressures and may also signal a tentative step toward easing broader tensions. Still, key flashpoints remain unresolved, including the ongoing suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
June 24 – New York City primary elections
New York City voters will rank a crowded slate of local government candidates on Tuesday to determine official party nominees, including in a tightly contested mayoral race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.
What’s happened so far
After facing corruption charges and a potential impeachment trial in 2024, sitting Mayor Eric Adams decided to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent. Former New York state Governor Andrew Cuomo initially led polling for the mayor’s office by a significant margin, but recent weeks have seen 33-year-old leftist state assembly member Zohran Mamdani surge to a small lead in some polls. New York City primaries have been held with ranked-choice voting since 2021, and Mamdani has coordinated with the third-highest polling candidate and fellow progressive Brad Lander for their voters to rank the pair first and second regardless of preference. Cuomo and Mamdani’s campaigns have frequently sparred on the city’s stance towards Israel, as well as Mamdani’s proposals for free bus fares and Cuomo’s call for a beefed-up police force.
The impact
Both Cuomo and Mamdani will likely contend with a chaotic election against Republican Curtis Sliwa, sitting mayor Eric Adams and the second-place Democrat running as an independent or through the Working Families Party. The city will also choose Democratic candidates for the crucial roles of public advocate and comptroller. Issue polling of New Yorkers has shown that public safety and affordability are the top priorities for voters, while 62 percent of respondents felt that the city is moving in the wrong direction.
June 24 – U.S. regulators hold meeting on Boeing 737 MAX door incident
The National Transportation Safety Board will hold a public board meeting on Tuesday as investigators move toward determining the probable cause of a door plug blowout on a January 2024 Alaska Airlines flight shortly after takeoff from Oregon’s Portland International Airport.
What’s happened so far
In the months after the incident, Boeing developed a new safety and quality plan that included random quality audits at its factories, while then-FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker said the company needed “a fundamental cultural shift … that’s oriented around safety and quality above profits.” On the financial side, Boeing posted a loss of nearly $12 billion in 2024, hampered by a seven-week machinist strike.
The impact
The NTSB meeting comes as Boeing faces new scrutiny after a 787 Dreamliner operated by Air India crashed shortly after takeoff from the northwestern city of Ahmedabad on June 12, killing at least 270 people. Meanwhile, a lawsuit brought by passengers on board the Alaska Airlines flight has been allowed to move forward, after a Washington Superior Court judge rejected an attempt by Boeing last month to dismiss the case.
June 24 – Bangladesh orders ousted prime minister to return to face trial
Bangladesh’s war crimes tribunal has ordered former leader Sheikh Hasina to return by Tuesday and stand trial on charges of “crimes against humanity” during the 2024 student protests.
What’s happened so far
Hasina, the longest-serving prime minister in Bangladesh’s history, fled to India after being ousted in August 2024 in the aftermath of the student-led uprising. Though protests initially started out as demonstrations against a quota system in the public sector, they then turned into one of the deadliest unrests in the country’s history as public grievances were met with violent crackdown that left more than 1,000 people killed. An interim government was set up with the aim of restoring public order and holding elections. Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) saw prosecutors requesting arrest warrants for Hasina and other leaders of her Awami League party over alleged mass killings and forced disappearance during the unrest and throughout her 15-year reign.
The impact
Hasina, who reportedly has been staying in New Delhi, has not made any comment after Bangladesh sought her extradition from India. Reports citing Indian official sources have suggested that India is unlikely to send Hasina back easily. The ICT said that if Hasina fails to appear before court, it will appoint defence counsel on their behalf and begin proceedings in their absence.
What Else Matters
Israel-Iran conflict
In an unprecedented attack, Israel launched what it said was a “preemptive strike” against Iran in the early hours of June 13 that sparked an escalation in which both countries have been firing ballistic missiles, airstrikes and drones. Hundreds of Iranians have been reported killed, including senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, in the Israeli attacks across the country, including the capital Tehran, that have targeted government and civilian infrastructure as well as nuclear facilities and state broadcasting buildings. Likewise, Iran struck several residential buildings in Israel, which has led to dozens of casualties.
Watch for: Israeli officials signaled early on in the conflict that these latest attacks could last for weeks, an escalation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed was in response to Iran being on the brink of producing a nuclear weapon. In fact, Iran was set to begin the sixth round of nuclear talks in Oman last Sunday, and although Tehran has, according to reports, signaled that it wishes to deescalate tensions and return to indirect talks with the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), analysts fear these attacks will continue for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, airspace in the region continues to be severely affected as IAEA’s Chief Mariano Grossi expresses worry about the danger of radiation leaks if nuclear facilities continue to be targeted.
Thailand-Cambodia tensions
Relations between Thailand and Cambodia have recently flared after an armed confrontation in a disputed border area known as the “Emerald Triangle” left one Cambodian soldier dead on May 28. Each side blamed each other for initiating the clash, and the spat has since persisted into saber-rattling and tit-for-tat policies, including Thailand’s new restrictions at border crossings and Cambodia’s bans on Thai movies and TV shows. This most recent border dispute stems from boundaries between the two countries drawn in the early 1900s, over which conflict has sparked as recently as 2008 into 2011, when Thailand and Cambodia clashed over the Preah Vihear temple.
Watch for: Cambodia has sought out the UN’s International Court of Justice to adjudicate the border dispute, but Thailand is pushing for a bilateral resolution, especially after previous ICJ rulings in Cambodia’s favor. Both Thailand’s and Cambodia’s governments are continuing to take and threaten punitive measures against each other, affecting immigration, trade and border operations, in an apparent attempt to appease nationalist sentiments in their respective countries. Outright military conflict remains unlikely, though higher tensions may increase the risk of smaller-scale border conflict. Any further escalation, however, could destabilize the government in Thailand, where at least one analyst is considering the possibility of another military coup.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 19-27
June 19
- Juneteenth
June 21
- Norway oil sector workers threaten to strike
June 22
- Tokyo metropolitan assembly election
June 23
- India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted
- EU-Canada summit
June 24
- NATO summit
- NYC primary elections
- Pakistan’s airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft to be lifted
- NTSB to hold hearing to determine cause of 2024 Boeing 737 MAX 9 mid-air emergency
- Bangladesh’s ousted PM Hasina and former minister Asaduzzaman Khan ordered to appear before tribunal
June 28-July 4
June 29
- NYC Pride parade
- Pacific Mini Games in Palau
June 30
- Myanmar junta extends temporary ceasefire
July 1
- French authorities announce plans to ban cigarette smoking in various public places
July 5-11
July 6
- 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup final in Houston
July 9
- Taiwan holds Han Kuang military drill
- Trump’s 90-day tariff pause set to expire
July 12-18
July 13
- 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, N.J.
July 15
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taichung
July 16
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Tainan
July 17
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taipei
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Top photo: The Juneteenth flag is seen waving in the wind during a flag raising ceremony on June 15, 2023, at the Mary W. Jackson NASA Headquarters building in Washington, D.C. (Photo: NASA / Keegan Barber)
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