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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela escalated sharply last weekend when American troops launched a deadly early-morning strike on the country, culminating in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jess Fino discuss reactions to the situation, including from Venezuela’s neighbors.
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Week of Jan. 9-16
A Look Ahead
Jan. 11 | Second phase of Myanmar elections
The second of three phases of Myanmar’s controversial general elections is set to take place Sunday amid what locals call a “climate of fear.”
What’s happened so far
Myanmar’s Union Solidarity and Development party, heavily backed by the military junta, recently won the first phase of elections that have been widely viewed as a sham, with very low voter turnout. The elections are the first to take place since the military coup in 2021, which was followed by an ongoing bloody civil war.
The impact
One more round of voting is set for Jan. 25. United Nations Human Rights Chief Volker Türk warned of the “environment of violence and repression” in which the elections are taking place, citing the lack of any conditions for free and fair voting. At least 40 political parties have been outlawed by the ruling junta, including the National League for Democracy party that won every election they contested in Myanmar.
Jan. 11 | Benin parliamentary election
Benin will hold parliamentary elections Sunday in a closely-watched poll following December’s surprise coup attempt.
What’s happened so far
Benin, often held up as an example of democratic stability in the West Africa region despite recent political tensions, was rocked by an attempted coup by a group of rebel military officers in December. Order was restored hours after a group of soldiers seized the country’s state broadcaster and declared they had taken control of the country. Military support from Nigeria and other ECOWAS members Ghana and Ivory Coast helped quell the insurrection, which followed a string of eight West African coups in five years. Pro-government parties hold control in the country’s National Assembly following the 2023 vote, with all 109 seats up for election Sunday.
The impact
Parties loyal to President Patrice Talon are expected to retain a majority in parliament with the process closely watched for any irregularities. Talon, who is serving a second term as head of state, does not intend to seek reelection in the country’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for April.
Jan. 14 | Nationwide protest over Nigeria’s tax reform
The National Association of Nigerian Students has called for nationwide protests on Wednesday to condemn controversial tax reforms that came into effect at the beginning of 2026. The organization has accused the federal government of ignoring public concerns and constitutional processes and is calling for a suspension of the reforms.
What’s happened so far
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu resolved to push ahead with the reforms despite criticism over alleged inconsistencies between the version of the bill passed by parliament and the copies later distributed. The reform stipulates, among other measures, the consolidation of more than 70 separate taxes into a unified framework and the introduction progressive rates for income tax. The government argues the changes could lift non-oil tax revenue by approximately 30 percent over the medium term, but opposition have framed the reform as punitive and disproportionately impacting a population already struggling with the cost of living.
The impact
The protest on Jan. 14 is likely to draw large numbers as people get to grips with what the tax reforms mean in practice. There is a high risk of escalation especially in urban areas where unemployment and high living costs are more apparent.
Jan. 15 | Uganda presidential election
General elections will be held in Uganda on Thursday to elect the country’s president and parliament.
What's happened so far
President Yoweri Museveni, Africa’s fourth-longest-ruling head of state who scrapped age and term limits during his rule dating back to 1986, is seeking re-election. Facing off against Museveni will be singer and activist Bobi Wine, who lost the 2021 election to Museveni before claiming widespread electoral fraud. Though initially barred from running by Uganda’s electoral commission, Wine has since been confirmed as a candidate to seek to thwart Museveni’s attempts to secure a seventh term.
The impact
Museveni’s government has cracked down on media coverage of anti-government protests and detained opposition supporters in the run up to the election after deadly protests coinciding with the last election in 2021. The opposition has expressed concerns that Ugandan authorities will cut internet access during the vote in order to prevent Wine’s supporters from mobilizing, though officials have denied this. Museveni’s government also in recent years passed draconian laws targeting Uganda’s LGBTQ+ community, threatening life imprisonment or even the death penalty for certain homosexual acts.
Jan. 16 | South Korea court to rule on ousted president’s insurrection charges
The Seoul Central District Court is set to deliver the verdict for South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol on Friday, with the trial over his declaration of martial law set to conclude this week.
What's happened so far
Yoon became the first sitting South Korea president to be arrested in January last year, following his short-lived martial law declaration in December 2024. The former president was impeached by the parliament and removed from office after the Constitutional Court upheld the parliament’s decision. The ousted president was charged with leading an insurrection by declaring martial law in the absence of war or national emergency. Several former cabinet members and senior government officials were charged alongside Yoon for conspiring in the insurrection.
The impact
Insurrection is one of the few criminal charges from which a South Korean president does not have immunity. If convicted, the former president could face life imprisonment or even the death penalty.
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What Else Matters
U.S. operation in Venezuela
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro and his wife were taken into U.S. custody Saturday following U.S. strikes in Caracas and other regions — a move that Maduro's government called “very serious” military aggression. Hours later, Trump gave a press conference where he said the United States was going to “run the country” until a “proper transition” could take place. Maduro and his wife have since appeared in court in New York, pleading not guilty after being charged with multiple federal drug and weapons offenses.
Watch for: While Maduro's former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president of Venezuela, it is yet unclear how the United States will play a role in running the country as a foreign power. There have already been some widespread protests for and against the U.S. military action, including in New York to Spain, Australia and Chile, and more are possible. Trump suggested a second wave of military action in Venezuela is possible, which could lead to further airspace closures. Rodriguez, for her part, said the United States' actions have put a "stain" on relations, but remained open to the possibility of an oil deal. It is also worth keeping a close eye on Colombia, after President Gustavo Petro was particularly vocal against Saturday’s actions. In an apparent easing of tensions Wednesday, Trump said the two spoke on the phone and plan to meet "in the near future".
U.S. federal agents in Minneapolis
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security reportedly began deploying as many as 2,000 federal agents and officers to the Twin Cities area this week as part of what the department is touting as its largest-ever operation. Since taking office last year with an eye on aggressively tackling illegal immigration, President Donald Trump’s administration has removed legal protections for over 1.6 million immigrants and deported more than 622,000 people — significantly up from the 271,000 people removed from the United States in 2024. In recent weeks across Minnesota, authorities have arrested more than 1,000 people suspected of being in the country illegally, according to the White House, and more than 150 people were reportedly arrested in Minneapolis on Monday.
Watch for: Tension sparked Wednesday in Minneapolis after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed a woman during operations in the city, causing protests in several parts of the country and drawing condemnation from local leaders. The Twin Cities saw significant demonstrations last year in response to immigration enforcement, with police and other local leaders criticizing ICE tactics. The renewed crackdown on illegal immigration comes as Minnesota grapples with a fraud scandal that saw the end of Gov. Tim Walz’s reelection bid and prompted authorities to freeze federal social service funding for the state and four other states led by Democrats. Citing unidentified sources, CBS News reported that officials plan to surge operations in the Twin Cities area for 30 days, although an unidentified official warned The Associated Press that details remained fluid this week.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Jan. 9-16
Jan. 11
- Second phase of Myanmar elections
- Benin parliamentary election
Jan. 12
- German chancellor Merz visits India
- Mercosur bloc to sign trade deal with the EU
- G7 finance ministers to meet in Washington to discuss rare earths
- World Court to hear Myanmar genocide case
Jan. 14
- U.S. Senate hearing on the impact of auto regulations and vehicle prices
- Nationwide protest over Nigeria's tax reform
- Epstein-probe depositions date for Bill and Hilary Clinton
Jan. 15
- Uganda election
- Hearing on White House construction
Jan. 16
- South Korea court to rule on ousted President Yoon's insurrection charges
- Japan's PM Takaichi to meet Italian PM Meloni in Tokyo
- French PM Macron to meet New Caledonian officials
Jan. 17-23
Jan. 18
- Final match of Africa Cup of Nations 2025
- Portuguese presidential elections
Jan. 19
- Vietnam Communist Party 14th five-yearly congress
- World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
Jan. 20
- Japan to restart world's largest nuclear power plant
Jan. 21
- Japanese court to hand down verdict over 2022 assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe
- U.S. Supreme Court to hear Trump's bid to fire Fed's Lisa Cook
Jan. 24-30
Jan. 24
- Legislative Assembly elections in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan
Jan. 25
- Nepal upper house election
- Third phase of Myanmar elections
- Egypt's Police Day
Jan. 26
- India's Republic Day
Jan. 31-Feb. 6
Feb. 1
- Start of conscription for Jordan military service
- Costa Rican general election
Feb. 3
- New START Treaty expiration
Feb. 6
- Winter Olympics begin in Milan
- Three-day Basant festival in Lahore
Top Photo: Voters went to the polls in the first round of Myanmar's elections on Dec. 27, 2025. (Photo: Myanmar Now / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 3.0)
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