Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Dozens of people were killed this week when Typhoon Kalmaegi barreled through the central Philippines. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss the areas most affected by the devastation and the recovery efforts underway.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Nov. 7-14
A Look Ahead
Nov. 7 SCOTUS holds conference to consider same-sex marriage ruling
The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hold a conference Friday to determine whether the court will consider hearing a case that seeks to overturn the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges case from 2015, which ruled that the right to marry is guaranteed for same-sex couples.
Whappened so far
Kim Davis, a Kentucky county clerk, refused to issue a marriage license to a gay couple in 2015 shortly after the ruling and was subsequently jailed for six days. In July 2025, Davis petitioned the Supreme Court to hear her case to not only overturn her civil financial settlement loss in lower courts but also to consider the legality of the landmark ruling itself.
The impact
Should the Supreme Court decide to hear Davis’ case, it may jeopardize the guaranteed right of same-sex couples in the United States to get married. If the Supreme Court overturns Obergefell v. Hodges, U.S. states could in theory refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas indicated in 2022 that the court “should reconsider” rulings regarding same-sex marriage. If the court denies review, the announcement could come as soon as Nov. 10.
Nov. 8 Rodrigo Paz inauguration as president of Bolivia
Rodrigo Paz will be inaugurated as Bolivia’s next president on Saturday, becoming the country’s first conservative leader in 20 years.
What’s happened so far
Paz won the Oct 19 runoff with about 54.5 percent of the vote, ending nearly 20 years of Movimiento al Socialismo dominance. The inauguration is scheduled in La Paz with the oath before the Plurinational Legislative Assembly and public ceremonies centered on Plaza Murillo. At least 45 foreign delegations will attend. Since the election, there have been protests demanding an audit of results in La Paz and other cities, though electoral authorities have confirmed the tally.
The impact
Rolling road closures and access controls are expected in central La Paz around Plaza Murillo and the Legislative Assembly during the ceremony. Police announced security rings layered with a large police deployment, implying diversions and checkpoints on approach roads. Given the patterns of mobilization and blockades, there is a credible risk of protest activity causing intermittent disruption to urban traffic and inter-city routes. Any missteps on price reforms or governance could trigger renewed blockades, which historically have imposed significant nationwide disruption.
Nov. 9 Doctors Without Borders told to leave Libya
The NGO Médicins Sans Frontières (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders, has been ordered to leave Libya by Sunday.
What’s happened so far
MSF was in March instructed to suspend its activities in the north African country after its premises were closed by the Libyan Internal Security Agency, which operates under the umbrella of the Libyan Armed Forces, in Benghazi. Last month, the NGO said it had received a letter from the Foreign Ministry ordering it to leave the country altogether, without providing an explanation.
The impact
The head of MSF’s program in Libya said the organization “still has an important role to play” in the country, including through its treatment of tuberculosis and support of the general health care system. MSF’s suspension also risks putting the lives of thousands of refugees in danger, as Libya remains a hub of migrant smuggling and trafficking from across the African continent toward the Mediterranean. MSF had provided life-saving healthcare to thousands of refugees who found themselves in the country and who would otherwise be excluded from the country’s care.
Nov. 10 COP30 in Brazil
The United Nation’s 30th climate change conference will begin in Belém, Brazil, on Monday.
What’s happened so far
The conference will take place in the capital of Brazil’s Para state in the country’s lower Amazon region, home to one of the planet’s most important ecosystems which continues to be threatened by deforestation despite partially successful government efforts to lower rates. Having the Amazon as the venue has raised controversies after the government directed heavy investments to build accommodations and improve roads in a region that suffers high poverty rates. The Brazilian government has defended the choice of Belem as a venue, citing hopes it will bring attention to the importance of protecting the rainforest despite approving an oil drilling project in the Amazon a month before the start of the event.
The impact
This year’s summit is significant as member countries must submit their updated national plans to meet climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. According to the agreement, greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 43 percent by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Representatives from more than 190 countries have been invited, but only 163 delegations have confirmed their attendance as of late October. The topics of discussion this year will include the allocation of funds for vulnerable nations and the creation of a new fund to protect forests. Brazil might also push the topic of biofuel use as part of the agenda.
Nov. 10 Egypt parliamentary election
Egypt will hold a first round of parliamentary elections for its House of Representatives, responsible for drafting laws and overseeing government action, on Monday.
What’s happened so far
Egypt held elections for its Senate last August in a process largely dominated by pro-regime candidates and a voter turnout of about 17 percent. The seats in parliament are selected by a combination of a two-round system in constituencies, a party block vote and some 28 officials directly appointed by the president. The system has long been considered to be favoring parties with government support, without leaving space for opposition candidates or political plurality. In fact, most opposition figures have been disqualified from running.
The impact
The officials elected in this upcoming election will be the members in parliament before the end of incumbent President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s third and final term in 2030. Currently, presidential terms in Egypt have a limit of six years and a maximum of two consecutive terms. Analysts fear, however, that the parliament, likely to be pro-government, will pave the way for a constitutional amendment aimed at extending Sisi’s term, highlighting the current authoritarian political structure in place in Egypt.
Know what’s real — in real time
In a world of information pollution and AI noise, Factal’s trusted verification enables organizations to make quick proactive decisions when faced with crisis and uncertainty.
Whatever the world throws at you next, act with confidence
Nov. 11 Iraq parliamentary election
On Tuesday, Iraqis will elect 329 members of parliament, which will in turn determine the country’s next holder of its highest executive office of prime minister and balance of power between its Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish populations.
What’s happened so far
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, backed by the country’s biggest Shiite parties and armed groups, is looking to remain in the office he’s held since 2022, having navigated through bouts of protests against lack of basic services like water and electricity, the years-long dispute over oil revenues with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and the Israeli-U.S. war with neighboring Iran (members’ link). Iraq’s elections commission said it has registered hundreds of local and foreign monitors and journalists for the vote, with nearly 8,000 candidates competing for seats.
The impact
More than two decades after the United States overthrew Saddam Hussein, triggering a civil war and foreign occupation that have cost tens of thousands of lives, Iraq continues to struggle to unite its factions using a democratic system that exists in few other countries in the Middle East. Pulled in opposite directions by U.S. and Iranian influences, the country’s next government will have to grapple with security, energy and social challenges that have caused multiple eruptions of violence, assassinations and limited economic growth despite its vast wealth.
Nov. 11 Polish Independence Day march
New Polish President Karol Nawrocki may attend the annual right-wing procession for the country’s Independence Day through the streets of Warsaw on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
The march took place for the first time on the country’s Independence Day in 2010 and gained traction the following year, when about 20,000 people participated, according to the organizers. That year, things turned violent and police detained hundreds of people, including many foreigners, amid clashes. Since then, its popularity has exploded with hundreds of thousands of people attending in recent years. Last year, demonstrators attended the march carrying signs that espoused anti-European Union, anti-Ukraine and even white supremacist sayings.
The impact
The normalization of the event, which has been described as a march of nationalists, has been an indication of Poland’s rightward lurch. The march and Nawrocki’s willingness to attend show how he’s politically opposed to centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk and able to use his veto power.
Nov. 11 European Public Health Conference 2025 begins in Helsinki
The 18th annual European Public Health Conference will start Tuesday in Finland’s capital.
What’s happened so far
Held annually at the behest of the European Public Health Association, this year’s conference’s agenda will include discussions concerning aligning economic policies with public health outcomes, as well as emphasizing health equity and sustainability.
The impact
The conference will take place within the backdrop of controversial European Union funding cuts that have forced some health NGOs to cut staff. As recently as September, the European Public Health Association, the group that hosts the annual conference, filed a complaint after it faced funding cuts that triggered the closure of its Brussels-based office.
What Else Matters
Russia zeroes in on key cities in eastern Ukraine
Russia’s Defense Ministry claims its troops have surrounded Ukrainian positions in the city of Pokrovsk, endangering Ukraine’s frontline defense in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian war monitor DeepState appears to corroborate Russian advances around Pokrovsk, and the Ukrainian Army said that a force of some 200 Russian soldiers has infiltrated the city with heavy clashes ongoing. Meanwhile, Russian forces are pushing further into the Kharkiv region, advancing into the city of Kupyansk and seizing control of key locations on the left bank of the Oskil River.
Watch for: While Russian high-ranking military officials have been criticized for exaggerating gains on the frontlines, corroboration from Ukrainian sources indicates the situation has indeed deteriorated over recent weeks in the key cities of Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged “difficult conditions” in the defense of Pokrovsk, adding that elite forces had been deployed to protect key supply lines. Russia’s latest advances endanger a key link in Ukraine’s so-called fortress belt in the Donetsk region and the loss of Pokrovsk would likely be the most important Russian territorial gain since Avdiivka in 2024. Likewise, taking Kupyansk would allow Russia to expand its influence in eastern areas of the Kharkiv region while at the same time increasing pressure on Ukraine-held areas of Donbas.
Typhoon Kalmaegi
Nearly 100 people have been killed and dozens others are missing after Typhoon Kalmaegi battered the central Philippines, bringing heavy rains and inundating entire towns this week. The typhoon, known in the Philippines as Tino, triggered a state of calamity in Cebu, the worst-hit province, with the governor describing the situation as “unprecedented” in a region still recovering from a deadly earthquake in late September. Among those killed are six military personnel who died in a plane crash in the southern province of Agusan del Sur on Tuesday while en route to help provide humanitarian relief. The 20th storm to hit the Philippines this year, Kalmaegi is now expected to move toward Vietnam, triggering a preventative response. China, too, has issued warnings and activated a maritime disaster emergency response in Hainan province.
Watch for: The typhoon is expected to pick up strength in the South China Sea before landfall over Vietnam’s central coast on Friday. Vietnam, already reeling from flooding that has left more than 30 people dead since late October, is now bracing for more impacts. Vietnam and Vasco airlines have canceled multiple flights on Thursday and Friday, and evacuations are underway in disaster-prone areas. In the Philippines, rescue and recovery efforts remain ongoing as floodwaters begin to recede.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Nov. 7-14
Nov. 7
- SCOTUS holds conference to consider same-sex marriage ruling
Nov. 8
- Inauguration of Rodrigo Paz as President of Bolivia
Nov. 9
- China Eastern Airlines to resume flights as China, India restore air links
- MSF told to leave Libya
Nov. 10
- Egypt parliamentary election
- COP30 kicks off in Belem, Brazil
- ConocoPhillips to begin layoffs
Nov. 11
- Iraqi parliamentary elections
- 18th European Public Health Conference 2025 in Helsinki, Finland
- Polish Independence Day march
Nov. 14
- Deadline for new prosecutor in Georgia election case
Nov. 15-21
Nov. 15
- Anticipated date for Haiti general elections
Nov. 16
- Chilean presidential and parliamentary elections
Nov. 18
- Egypt parliamentary elections results
Nov. 20
- Tonga elections
Nov. 21
- FIFA Futsal Women’s World Cup in Pasig, Philippines
Nov. 22-28
Nov. 22
- G20 Summit in Johannesburg
Nov. 23
- Guinea-Bissau election
- Republika Srpska presidential election
Nov. 24
- Strike action against government reform plans in Belgium
Nov. 26
- EU-Central Asia Economic Forum in Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Nov. 29-Dec. 5
Nov. 30
- Kyrgyzstan parliament snap elections
- Honduras presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 3
- UK State Visit for German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Dec. 5
- 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit begins
Top Photo: The U.S. Supreme Court will consider hearing a case that seeks to overturn the court’s 2015 landmark ruling that guaranteed the right to marry for same-sex couples. (Photo: Jordan Uhl / Flickr, CC BY 2.0)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.