Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Hurricane Helene is expected to rapidly intensify ahead of landfall Thursday evening in Florida, prompting emergency declarations, extensive preparations and thousands of evacuations. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the “nightmare” storm surge scenario as well as the concerns facing Tallahassee.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform
Week of Sept. 27-Oct. 4
A Look Ahead
Sept. 26 – Zelenskyy to meet Biden and Harris at White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday in a bid to convince allies to allow Ukrainian forces to strike deeper into Russian territory with U.S. weapons. He is also expected to present his “victory plan” to presidential candidate Donald Trump, saying there is a need to talk to each of the candidates ahead of the November election.
What’s happened so far
Zelenskyy said he wants the plan implemented by the end of December and that it would strengthen Ukraine and force Russia to the negotiating table. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said western permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike within Russia would be considered direct participation in the war by NATO countries and would mark a significant change in the conflict.
The impact
The meetings come at a critical moment in the ongoing conflict as Ukraine struggles to slow Russia’s grinding advance in the eastern region of Donetsk and maintain its offensive in Russia’s Kursk region. While the Biden administration has remained steadfast in its support for Ukraine, it has been reluctant to give the green light for the use of its weapons on Russia territory. Harris has indicated she would continue Biden’s policies of backing Ukraine, while Trump claimed he has a plan to end the war. Russia has shown no signals it is ready to participate in talks, stating earlier this week “there is no alternative to Russian victory.” Any move toward allowing strikes with long-range weapons on Russian territory, while unlikely to change the nature of the war, will likely mean a step-up in Russian strikes on critical infrastructure throughout Ukraine.
Sept. 27 – Japan’s LDP to hold leadership election
Lawmakers of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) will choose their next president on Friday.
What’s happened so far
In a sudden move in August, Japan’s incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his decision to step down, ending a three-year term in office. This came as LDP’s approval rating plummeted to record lows amid rising inflation and a series of political controversies, including the party’s alleged ties to the Unification Church and s slush funds scandal that led to dissolution of LDP’s several major factions. The party’s 369 lawmakers will choose its next president from a record nine candidates. With the LDP’s majority in the lower house, the elected leader will most certainly go on to become Japan’s next prime minister.
The impact
After three years marred by economic challenges and political scandals, it is crucial for the LDP’s new leader to bring the party together and win back public trust. With none of the candidates expected to win a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff is likely. The race is seen by analysts as the one of the most unpredictable ones in recent years and will undoubtedly have a profound impact on Japan’s politics and economic policies.
The rising cost of misinformation and noise in risk intelligence
Despite mounting costs from noise, misinformation and AI pollution, it can be challenging for some to peel away from the firehose. The “fear of missing out” feeds the misconception that seeing everything ensures you won’t miss anything. But it’s not sustainable. Information pollution is getting worse, good analysts are harder to find and security budgets are tighter than ever. There is a better way.
Sept. 29 – Austria parliamentary elections
Austria will elect a new parliament on Sunday, with the far-right, anti-immigration Freedom Party (FPO) leading the polls as the likely winner.
What’s happened so far
Amid voter concerns over cost of living and immigration policy, the FPO has slowly emerged as a strong contender while the Social Democrats and the Austrian People’s Party trail behind. Though it has led the polls since late 2022, the FPO is not likely to win an outright majority and would need to form the government with a coalition partner. Chancellor Karl Nehammar has refused to join a government headed by the FPO, saying its leader Herbert Kickl is more radical than his predecessors.
The impact
Climate change, inflation and immigration are among the key issues in the election. Although Austria is likely to see stronger immigration control despite who wins the election, FPO is opposed to sanctions against Russia, who the country relies heavily on for gas, and a win is likely to put its relationship with the EU in contention.
Sept. 30 – International Longshoremen’s Association potential strike
A stalemate in contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employers’ group continues ahead of a Monday expiration date of the current contracts.
What’s happened so far
Should no deal be reached, ILA members will go on strike starting Oct. 1, shutting down container operations at virtually every port on the U.S. East Coast, including the ports of New York and New Jersey and the ports of Houston and South Louisiana. The negotiations are highly contentious so far: USMX accuses the ILA of being unwilling to bargain, while the ILA called USMX “stingy” and claimed their wage increase offer was a “low-ball” and a “joke.”
The impact
The enormous complexity of global supply chains, and the role of ILA’s eastern United States ports, portend massive disruptions to virtually all industries should a strike go ahead, both in terms of shipping delays and additional incurred costs. Consulting firm Sea-Intelligence estimates that a two-week strike would slow down cargo traffic through January, while Mitre places the economic impact of a strike at more than $1 billion every two days at the busiest ports.
Oct. 1 – Claudia Sheinbaum inaugurated as president of Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, will become Mexico’s first female president on Tuesday after winning a decisive election in June.
What’s happened so far
Sheinbaum won 61 percent of votes in June’s presidential election after taking control of Morena, the left-wing party of sitting President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Morena candidates won overwhelmingly across the country, and the party now controls both chambers of congress and 24 out of 31 governorships. Lopez Obrador has remained popular despite little progress on cartel violence and middling economic growth. Sheinbaum could face a recall in 2027 under a Lopez Obrador reform that requires only 3 million signatures out of 130 million people to force a recall election.
The impact
Sheinbaum’s government will pursue 20 constitutional and legal reforms put forth by Lopez Obrador earlier this year known as “Plan C”. The first proposal from Plan C became law on Sept. 15, creating a system of elections to choose the country’s traditionally conservative judiciary. Opponents say the reform is a threat to judicial independence, and protesters stormed the congress in Mexico City during the vote. Without the judicial branch standing in her way, Sheinbaum’s administration will likely continue the Morena policies of taking on debt to pursue large public works projects, using the military to fight drug cartels, expanding manufacturing and building bridges with other left-wing governments in Latin America.
Oct. 1 – U.S. vice presidential debate
Republican candidate JD Vance will face off Tuesday against Democratic candidate Tim Walz at the only vice presidential debate as early voting begins ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
What’s happened so far
The debate between Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, and Minnesota Gov. Walz is currently the last scheduled debate ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Former President Donald Trump debated Vice President Kamala Harris on Sept. 10 in what was seen as a highly contentious matchup that a majority voters say Harris won. Trump has so far refused to debate Harris a second time, saying “it’s just too late” as early voting begins this week across the country, making Tuesday’s meeting likely the last between the campaigns before November.
The impact
CBS News will host Vance and Walz at its studios on the west side of Manhattan, and it’s unclear if an audience will be in attendance. Though both Vance and Walz were relatively unknown to the broader U.S. electorate before the election, new polling shows about half of registered voters view Vance unfavorably, while most voters have a more positive view of Walz. Harris has offered to debate Trump again at an Oct. 23 CNN debate, and analysts say that a final matchup could help sway the small amount of undecided voters.
What Else Matters
Hurricane Helene
The National Weather Service has wrned of a “nightmare surge scenario” for Florida’s Apalachee Bay as Hurricane Helene threatens the state’s Big Bend region with landfall Thursday evening as a major hurricane. Tallahassee’s mayor said he was bracing for “unprecedented damage like nothing we have ever experienced before as a community.” The increasingly dire forecast has triggered widespread evacuation orders, including all of Franklin, Taylor and Wakulla counties along the Big Bend — covering approximately 70,000 residents — as well as school closures in the Tampa and Orlando areas and the suspension of flights at several major airports.
Watch for: As of late Wednesday, forecasters expected Helene to strengthen to a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 130 mph before landfall. The impacts are expected to extend far inland, with the governors of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia all declaring pre-emptive states of emergency ahead of expected heavy rainfall and the potential for severe flooding.
Israel-Lebanon war
Israel is pushing forward against Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a military offensive that has killed nearly 600 people over the past week, including dozens of women and children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, and matching the country’s death toll from the previous 11 months combined.
Watch for: The Israeli military’s stated goal is to push Hezbollah back far enough from the border area to allow for the return of about 100,000 Israelis who’ve been displaced since October due to the near non-stop cross-border shelling and rocket strikes. That likely means Israel is preparing a ground invasion into southern Lebanon for the first time since 1982, with comments to that effect coming from senior commanders on Wednesday after weeks of increasing troop buildup. Israel has degraded Hezbollah’s operational capabilities by killing multiple senior commanders with airstrikes and dozens of the group’s members with explosive telecommunication devices. Lebanon’s civilian population, meanwhile, is suffering from an economic crisis that’s now compounding due to the escalation of hostilities and lack of security, as thousands flee their homes in search of safety.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 26-Oct.4
Sept. 26
- Ukraine’s Zelenskyy to meet Biden, Harris at White House
Sept. 27
- Japan’s ruling LDP to hold party’s leadership election
Sept. 29
- Austria parliamentary elections
Sept. 30
- Labor contracts for U.S. East Coast ports set to expire
- Possible Ghana national lockdown
Oct. 1
- Claudia Sheinbaum takes office as new Mexico president
- CBS vice presidential debate
- Myanmar census
Oct. 4
- Vote counting after three stages of elections in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir
Oct. 5-11
Oct. 6
- Brazil municipal elections first round
- Tunisia presidential elections
Oct. 7
- Malaysia court to hear ex-PM Najib’s appeal on house arrest decision
- North Korea parliamentary meeting on constitutional revision
Oct. 8
- Nigeria to start mpox vaccination
Oct. 10
- Europa Clipper launch window opens
- Biden to travel to Germany, Angola
Oct. 12-18
Oct. 14
- U.K. holds international investment summit
Oct. 17
- European Central Bank meets
Oct. 19-25
Oct. 19
- British Columbia elections
Oct. 20
- Kurdistan elections
Thanks for reading! If you want the Factal Forecast in your inbox, you can sign up for free.
Top photo: President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pictured in a June 2024 meeting in Paris, will hold talks Thursday at the White House. (DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer First Class Alexander C. Kubitza)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.