Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Protests broke out in Southeast Asia’s East Timor on Sept. 15 over a controversial plan to buy new vehicles for the country’s lawmakers. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss some of the underlying issues driving the demonstrations and the latest developments.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 19-26
A Look Ahead
Sept. 19 – Trump talks to China’s Xi about TikTok
U.S. President Donald Trump will speak with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday regarding the future of TikTok.
What’s happened so far
The talks between the two leaders will be held to confirm a framework agreement reached earlier this week concerning ownership of the popular short-form social media video platform. While few details have been revealed, the deal comes after a prolonged saga in which the United States sought to transfer ownership of the platform from Chinese state-linked company ByteDance, citing a litany of concerns including privacy, trade reciprocity and national security.
The impact
While Trump spearheaded the initial push to ban TikTok during his first term, he has struck a much more positive tone regarding the app in his second, citing the platform’s role in securing his reelection. While a 2024 law that was subsequently upheld by the Supreme Court banned the app barring ByteDance divestment, Trump has repeatedly extended the deadline for shutdown with the latest date coming Wednesday, two days prior to Trump’s meeting with Xi. One key question that remains unanswered relates to the extent to which TikTok’s current algorithm, which critics say pushes biased and polarizing information to adolescents, will remain unchanged under an American TikTok entity.
Sept. 21 – Guinea’s junta holds referendum on constitution
A referendum on Guinea’s constitution will take place in the country on Sunday, for the first time since the junta took power.
What’s happened so far
On Sept. 5, 2021, then-President Alpha Condé was overthrown by army commander Mamady Doumbouya in a coup organized by the country’s armed forces on the capital, Conakry. Doumboya was then sworn in as president on Oct. 1 the same year, promising a return to civilian rule and to hold elections, without specifying a particular date.
The impact
Analysts believe the constitutional referendum serves as a means for the military junta to cement their power and move away from a democratic, civil rule. Doumbouya released a draft constitution in June this year, which was highly criticized by the opposition, particularly over the clauses aimed at increasing the presidential term from five to seven years, as well as allowing Doumbouya to run for election. The junta has banned protests from taking place in the country and has responded violently to them in the past, with critics arguing this is only one of the many aspects in which the West African country of 14.8 million people is moving further away from a democratic process.
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Sept. 21 – Service for Charlie Kirk at State Farm Stadium
A memorial service for assassinated talk show host Charlie Kirk will be held at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Sunday, with President Donald Trump and a number of prominent conservative figures expected to be in attendance.
What’s happened so far
Conservative media figure Charlie Kirk was shot and killed while on stage at an event on the campus of Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah, on Sept. 10. Suspect Tyler Robinson, a resident of Washington, Utah, was arrested after reportedly being turned in by his father and a family friend. FBI Director Kash Patel said DNA matching Robinson had been found near the scene, following an embarrassing series of arrests and releases amid confusion over the suspect in the hours after the shooting. Following an outpouring of grief, a memorial was organized at the home of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals.
The impact
Security would have been tight given the nature of the event that is open to the public, but now involves the Secret Service and other agencies following the confirmation that Trump will be attending the memorial, likely with other members of the Cabinet including Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The event may act as a signpost for future actions of the Trump administration, previewed by Vice President JD Vance’s comments about dismantling “far-left” groups during his guest hosting of Kirk’s podcast.
Sept. 22 – Indian airports to enhance security measures
India’s civil aviation authority has urged vigilance over a “high probability” of attack over a 11-day period starting Monday.
What’s happened so far
India’s Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) last month issued an advisory urging close cooperation of airlines, airport authorities, and law enforcement to tighten surveillance over threats from “anti-social elements.” While details regarding the threat were not made clear in the warning, several local media have reported that the threat came from a militant group with alleged connections to Pakistan from Sept. 22 to Oct. 2. Indian airports are no stranger to security threats, as more than 500 bomb threats were reported within the month of October 2024. While all of them were proved to be hoaxes in the end, the wave of threats have caused significant delays and diversions on hundreds of the country’s domestic and international routes.
The impact
Airlines, police and airport authorities are expected to carry out strict ID checks, increased patrols and monitoring of CCTV systems, as well as enhanced screening of mail and cargo, as suggested by the civil aviation authority. This could lead to longer waiting times, disruptions of operations at the airport and potential delays in flights.
Sept. 22 – UN General Assembly begins in New York
This year’s UN General Assembly, beginning Monday in New York City, will feature major western nations officially recognizing the state of Palestine, and a speech from U.S. President Donald Trump.
What’s happened so far
Over the summer, France, Australia, the United Kingdom and Canada all announced plans to officially recognize an independent Palestinian state, headed by the Palestinian authority, beginning at this year’s September General Assembly. Meanwhile, France and Saudi Arabia will host a large summit on Sept. 22 concerning a two-state solution. Trump will also speak to the UNGA for the first time since his election last November, with his remarks coming as his administration has increasingly distanced the country from the United Nations, including a full withdrawal from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization.
The impact
The US has traditionally been the UN’s largest financial backer, and funding cuts are likely to result in the elimination of over 2,000 jobs for 2026. At the same time, China has been attempting to assert greater control over the institution by leveraging their large cash transfers. On the topic of Gaza, any additional countries that choose to bilaterally recognize Palestine will be limited in their actions by the US veto on the Security Council, which will prevent any sort of Palestinian state voting in UN resolutions. Trump has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to Israel, and is planning to meet with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu after his speech in Washington on Sept. 29.
Sept. 26 – French farmers’ union strike
Farmers intend to put pressure on France’s new government with a nationwide day of action next Friday.
What’s happened so far
On Sept. 9, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister, the country’s fifth in less than two years, following a no-confidence vote that swept François Bayrou out of office. It has led to a large number of protests and strikes, including now the farmers’ union FNSEA. Union officials called out a number of issues, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Mercosur, a trade agreement between the European Union and some South American countries that is still pending final approval. Farmers argue international imports have a lack of regulations compared to domestic products. Last year, farmers’ protests paralyzed the country with tractors blocking major roads and border crossings.
The impact
This time around, the union says the protests will be organized at a more local level and roadblocks won’t be key. However, there will be demonstrations outside of certain buildings like supermarkets and government agencies. That means the likelihood of transportation disruptions and clashes with the police are high, albeit not necessarily in large cities like Paris. Lecornu’s handling of the protests will show how the latest French government will try to strike a balance between placating its farmers as well as the EU’s trade agenda.
What Else Matters
Trump deploys task force in Memphis
President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday establishing the Memphis Safe Task Force, “whose objective shall be to end street and violent crime” in the Tennessee city, and authorizing the use of the National Guard. As of Tuesday afternoon, troops had yet to be deployed on the streets of the Bluff City, but Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee told The Daily Memphian it would be “sooner than later,” while estimating it would involve approximately 150 National Guard members. When that happens, Memphis will become the third city to see law enforcement assistance on the federal level, following earlier orders that sent troops to Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.
Watch for: Trump floated Chicago, St. Louis and New Orleans as the next potential cities for federal intervention, saying “we’re going to take care of all of them step by step.” But unlike Chicago, where Democratic officials have consistently pushed back on the idea, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has expressed support for federal action, while Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe said in a statement Tuesday he “continues to keep options open to keep Missourians safe.” Meanwhile, military officials extended their deployment in the nation’s capital through Nov. 30, with some 2,300 troops tasked mostly with beautification projects while assisting local law enforcement.
U.S. strikes on Venezuela boat
At least three men were killed in a new U.S. military strike on an alleged Venezuelan drug vessel on international waters, President Donald Trump announced Monday on social media platform Truth Social, without providing any evidence that the boat was carrying narcotics. This is the second deadly U.S. strike targeting an alleged drug cartel boat off the coast of Venezuela in recent weeks – the first one killed 11 people on Sept. 2 – after the Trump administration deployed warships to southern Caribbean waters as part of broader White House plans to target Latin American cartels. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro responded to the most recent strike by invoking Venezuela’s “legitimate right to defend itself” and announced “completely broken” relations between both countries. Maduro had previously accused the U.S. administration of violating international law and committing a “treacherous crime” over the Sept. 2 events. Caracas has also accused the U.S. government of seeking escalation amid ongoing tensions with the aim of a regime change.
Watch for: The recent boat strikes are not the only display of power by the United States as the government ramps up its “war on drugs” rhetoric. At least five F-35 fighter jets were sent to Puerto Rico on Sept. 13 and, in August, the Department of State increased their reward offer on information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million over his alleged ties to Cartel de los Soles. It remains unclear whether U.S. strikes on Venezuelan soil or on other Latin American countries with strong cartel presence are on the cards in the near future, or whether the Trump administration is considering the deployment of its forces on the ground after reports surfaced over the summer about possible Trump plans to do so.
East Timor protests
Thousands of people took to the streets of Dili, East Timor, earlier this week in protest against the government’s plan to purchase luxury SUVs for parliamentarians. The proposed purchase of 65 Toyota Prados, valued at around $3 million, led to an immediate backlash in a country where more than 40 percent of the population lives in poverty, with many essential services unfunded. These student-led demonstrations began peacefully but turned violent after police fired tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse crowds near the National Parliament. At least four people were injured in the ensuing clashes. The unrest carried over into Tuesday, with more than 2,000 protesters staging demonstrations against what they call blatant government excess. The protests come amid growing frustration over political privilege and economic inequality, with similar youth-led demonstrations erupting in Nepal and Indonesia in recent weeks over government excess.
Watch for: Although the government has not officially cancelled the SUV deal, several major political parties have backed down, announcing that they will ask the National Parliament to annul or suspend the deal. The protesters have called for continued demonstrations until the SUV deal is completely scrapped with the government facing mounting pressure over its use of force. These demonstrations, echoing unrest in other parts of Asia, signal a rise in youth-driven movements demanding greater transparency and accountability from its elected officials.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 19-26
Sept. 19
- Trump talks to China’s Xi about TikTok
Sept. 21
- Guinea’s junta holds referendum on Constitution
- Service for Charlie Kirk at State Farm Stadium
Sept. 22
- Trump goes to UNGA
- Enhanced security measures at Indian airports begins
Sept. 23
- Uganda presidential election nominations
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Sept. 27-Oct. 3
Sept. 27
- Papua New Guinea local government polling starts
- Iceland parliamentary elections
- Seychelles general election
Sept. 28
- Moldovan parliamentary election
- Dutch carrier KLM to resume Tel Aviv-Amsterdam route
Sept. 29
- Blue Origin’s 2nd New Glenn rocket launch will fly twin NASA Mars probes to space
Sept. 30
- U.S. government funding set to expire, leading to possible shutdown
Oct. 3
- Czech parliamentary election
- Sean “Diddy” Combs’s sentencing hearing
Oct. 4-10
Oct. 4
- Leadership election for Japan’s LDP
Oct. 5
- Cameroon presidential election
Oct. 9
- AG Pam Bondi will testify before U.S. House Judiciary Committee
Oct. 10
- Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 will be announced
Oct. 11-17
Oct. 12
- Portugal elections
- Cameroon presidential election
Oct. 15
- Russia-Arab summit
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Top photo: U.S. President Donald Trump, pictured meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the 2019 UN General Assembly, will return to address UNGA in New York next week. (Photo: Official White House / Shealah Craighead)