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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Negotiators for the United States and Iran met for indirect talks in Geneva this week. The discussions came amid continuing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and during a major American military buildup in the region. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Ahmed Namatalla discuss progress made in the talks and how both sides are still showing an unwillingness to back down.
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Week of Feb. 19-27
A Look Ahead
Feb. 19 | U.S. union nurses hold day of action against ICE
On Thursday, members of National Nurses United, the United States’ largest nurse’s union, will hold a national day of action against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol agents in eight states and about 50 hospitals nationwide.
What’s happened so far
National Nurses United has been vocal in its opposition to the Trump administration’s efforts to crack down on immigration. Since the killing of Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse, and Renee Good by federal agents in Minneapolis, the organization has repeatedly called for the end of funding to both agencies. The union has also said Americans are subsidizing “terror.” In January, members of the New York State Nurses Association held their own national day of action, arguing that its presence deters patients from seeking care. The issue drew attention after a child was sent to a Texas detention center during a hospital visit in Portland, Ore. Immigration agents were also seen asking questions in front of hospitals in Minnesota during the recent crackdown.
The impact
National Nurses United has more than 225,000 members, though it’s unclear how many will participate in demonstrations. The protests come as a partial government shutdown appears that it will drag on amid disagreements over funding for immigration enforcement agencies. Democrats are pushing to designate hospitals as sensitive areas as part of the negotiations to fund the government and organizers say they’re ready to put the pressure on. “We can’t stress enough the public health danger that ICE and border patrol are posing to our patients and our communities,” National Nurses United said in a statement.
Feb. 20 | U.S. Supreme Court schedules opinion day
The U.S. Supreme Court will render opinions on some cases this Friday.
What’s happened so far
Friday will mark the first of three forthcoming days, along with Feb. 24 and 25, in which America’s high court will render opinions on cases it has heard so far during the oral argument season. The court has already delivered some opinions this year, including prominent rulings that allowed Texas and California to move ahead with partisan congressional maps.
The impact
While the court does not announce ahead of time which cases it will issue opinions on, observers are closely watching for a landmark decision to come down regarding tariffs. The crux of the case concerns President Donald Trump invoking emergency powers to place wide-ranging tariffs on imports from around the world. Were the court to rule against the Trump administration, wide swathes of his signature tariffs would be invalidated, marking a significant legal defeat. Trump, however, had said his administration will seek further legal mechanisms to keep the tariffs in place should the court rule against his tariff logic.
Feb. 22 | Laos election
On Sunday, Laos will hold a general election to decide the members of its National Assembly and Provincial People’s Councils.
What's happened so far
The general election followed the National Congress of the Laos’ ruling People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) electing new party leadership in early January. In the upcoming vote, Lao citizens aged 18 and over will be able to choose the 175 seats of the legislature from a list of 243 candidates put together by the authorities. The five-year term of the current legislature is set to expire on March 22, after which the new legislature will start.
The impact
While the Central Committee, LPRP’s highest decision making body, is in charge of drafting Laos’ “five-year plan” of social and economic policy, the National Assembly serves as a “rubber-stamp” that approves the party’s decisions. Key targets set by the party congress focus on economic growth and graduation from the Least Developed Country status, tackling inflation, reducing poverty and strengthening infrastructure.
Feb. 22 | India’s Modi visits Israel
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Israel on Sunday, where he is expected to give an address in parliament.
What's happened so far
Modi first visited Israel in 2017, the first ever visit by an Indian prime minister to the Jewish state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke the news of the upcoming visit at the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem last week. While the agenda is still unclear, Israeli media has since reported the visit is expected to be short and will include an address at the Knesset.
The impact
Members of the Indian parliament criticized the way the visit was announced, saying they were finding out about the government's decisions from foreign leaders. Some protests have also erupted after the news broke, with pro-Palestine rallies organized across several cities, including Mumbai and Delhi. The visit comes after both countries signed a landmark deal on defense, industrial and technological cooperation in November, so further deals could be struck during this meeting.
Feb. 23 | ICC hearing on charges against former Philippines president
The International Criminal Court will hear evidence Monday against former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to ascertain whether the case against him will go to trial.
What's happened so far
Duterte was arrested in March 2025 on an ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in the context of a war on drugs campaign. Duterte’s alleged crimes include extrajudicial killings while he was mayor of Davao and later president of the Philippines. A UN report released in 2020 found that at least 8,663 people were killed between 2016 and 2020 during a government campaign against illegal drugs. Duterte is accused of criminal responsibility for these crimes via indirectly committing them, ordering and instigating them and for having “aided, abetted or otherwise assisted” them.
The impact
The hearing is set to be held before three judges to evaluate whether the evidence is sufficient to proceed to try Duterte before the ICC. The hearing will not determine Duterte’s guilt and he can challenge the charges through his legal team. Should the evidence against Duterte be deemed sufficient, the court will issue a written decision within 60 days and the case will go to trial.
Feb. 24 | U.S. State of the Union
President Donald Trump will deliver a State of the Union address Tuesday.
What's happened so far
The speech, in which the president addresses a joint session of Congress, will mark the first official State of the Union speech of Trump’s second term in office, though he did speak before a joint congressional session a year ago. Trump’s address will coincide with a partial government shutdown that began due to a fight between congressional Democrats and Republicans over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding and, specifically, a lack of oversight of federal immigration enforcement.
The impact
Despite the likelihood that the speech will coincide with a partial government shutdown, it does not yet appear the address will be delayed, though reports indicate congressional Republicans are worried about the optics of Trump delivering his address amid a DHS funding lapse. Congressional Democrats, meanwhile, are set to boycott the speech and attend an alternative event, though it remains to be seen how extensive the boycott will be.
Feb. 24 | European Parliament to vote on trade pact with the U.S.
The European Parliament’s trade committee is expected to vote on a controversial deal with the United States on Tuesday after months of back and forth.
What's happened so far
The formal vote follows negotiations between political groups in parliament on the trade deal, which was originally reached in July last year. The approval process was blocked last month after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to take over Greenland. The agreement, once formally approved, will entail U.S. tariffs at 15 percent on EU exports, while the EU has signaled it would cut its tariffs on U.S. goods to zero.
The impact
After being passed, the agreement will then move to a plenary vote in March, and only then the bill would become law. Until then, further negotiations between institutions are expected, as a number of provisions are up for debate. Parliament’s version currently includes safeguard mechanisms such as the reintroduction of tariffs on U.S. goods if the United States does not reduce its own tariffs to the agreed 15 percent. The parliament’s president has signaled that, while the trade deal is “urgent,” lawmakers are “open, but not naive” and the agreement needs to be grounded in “mutual trust, understanding and respect.”
Feb. 26 | Clintons to testify before House committee
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton are scheduled to appear for two days beginning Thursday before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
What's happened so far
The Clintons agreed to sit for closed-door depositions months after they initially refused to comply with subpoenas issued as part of a House investigation into the disgraced late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Committee Chair Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., heralded the Clintons’ change-of-heart earlier this month, noting they agreed to appear only after facing the threat of a contempt of Congress vote. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to appear before the committee next Thursday, with Bill Clinton to testify on the following day.
The impact
It is unclear what new information might be gleaned from the scheduled hearings on Capitol Hill. The Clintons were acquainted with Epstein and his co-conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell, and Bill Clinton’s name appeared several times throughout the Epstein files that have so far been released by the Justice Department. In an interview released this week, Hillary Clinton said she and her husband have “no links” to Epstein or Maxwell and accused the Trump administration of a “cover-up” in its handling of the Epstein files. The Clintons earlier called for any hearings to be held publicly.
What Else Matters
Fires in Kansas and Oklahoma
On Tuesday, multiple wildfires broke out in Oklahoma amid the warm, dry and windy weather that prompted red flag warnings across the Plains earlier in the week. At least 3,000 people were forced to evacuate due to the 43 Road Fire in the city of Woodward in northwestern Oklahoma. The Ranger Road Fire, which broke out in Beaver County earlier that same morning, crossed state lines into southwest Kansas within a few hours, burning an estimated 145,000 acres of land and prompting evacuation of more than 11,000 people. While it isn’t immediately clear how many people were injured and the extent of damage on structures due to the fire conditions, the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management said at least four firefighters were injured when a fire truck overturned in Beaver County.
Watch for: With strong winds and low humidity set to persist, high fire danger is expected to continue over the next few days. Officials have urged people to “remain alert, follow evacuation orders, and avoid any activity that could spark new fires.”
U.S.-Iran talks
The United States and Iran are holding indirect negotiations in Switzerland, even as both maintain public defiance and refusal to make any concessions. That keeps the threat of military confrontation alive, as the United States continues to build up its military presence in the Middle East and as Iran conducts live-fire naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to shut down one of the world’s most important passages for oil supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Watch for: Progress is reportedly being made at the talks, according to U.S. and Iranian officials who’ve commented on the matter without providing details. Publicly, Iranian officials are saying the country will never give up its nuclear program, which they claim is only for civilian purposes. They vow retaliation if attacked. The United States has shifted its reasoning for a possible attack from the country’s nuclear program to its recent crackdown on anti-government protests then back to the nuclear issue. Israel, meanwhile, is also pushing for the destruction of Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure, which it claims poses a threat to its security.
Forecast podcast: US weighs possible strikes in Iran as nuclear talks drag on
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Ahmed Namatalla discuss the threat of U.S. strikes in Iran, plus more on U.S. Supreme Court opinions, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting Israel, an International Criminal Court hearing against former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, and the European Parliament voting on a trade pact with the U.S.
Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and many more.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Ahmed Namatalla, Alex Moore, Jess Fino and Michael Archer. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Feb. 19-27
Feb. 19
- Former South Korean President Yoon to be sentenced over 2024 insurrection
- National Governors Association meetings at White House
- Union registered nurses across the country hold day of action to protest ICE
Feb. 20
- Supreme Court to consider President Trump's petition to review verdict of E. Jean Carroll case
Feb. 22
- Laos National Assembly election
Feb. 23
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Feb. 24
- Fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine
- Trump delivers U.S. State of the Union
- European Parliament to vote on trade pact with the U.S.
Feb. 25
- New U.K. dual citizenship passport rules go into effect
- India’s Modi visits Israel
Feb. 26
- Former U.S. President Bill Clinton testifies before House committee
Feb. 27
- Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton testifies before House committee
Feb. 28-March 6
Feb. 28
- Taiwan's 228 Peace Memorial Day
March 1
- SBA will no longer guarantee loans for small businesses owned by foreign nationals
- Tokyo marathon
March 3
- Texas and North Carolina Senate primaries
March 4
- China's annual "Two Sessions"
- Tokyo High Court to issue ruling over Unification Church dissolution request
- U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem will appear before the House Judiciary Committee
- Apple event
March 5
- Nepal parliamentary elections
- 2026 World Baseball Classic begins
March 6
- Paralympic Winter Games begin
March 7-13
March 8
- Colombia legislative election
- Germany's Baden-Württemberg holds state elections
March 9
- South Korea parliament to finalize bill on U.S. investment fund
- U.S. to auction drilling rights for Alaska reserve
March 10
- Race to replace U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia
March 12
- Belgium national strike
March 14-20
March 15
- Vietnam National Assembly election
- Miami Open
- Kazakhstan referendum on new constitution
- Round 1 of France municipal elections
March 17
- Illinois Senate primaries
March 19
- European Council Summit in Brussels
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Top photo: In January, members of the New York State Nurses Association held a day of action to protest against ICE in hospitals. (Photo: New York State Nurses Association / Facebook)
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