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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The EU threatened to freeze work on a trade deal with the U.S. on Wednesday over President Donald Trump’s escalating threats against Greenland. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss reactions to Trump’s demand to control the world’s largest island, including from the indigenous community that makes up the vast majority of Greenland’s residents.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Jan. 23-30
A Look Ahead
Jan. 25 | Nepal’s upper house election
An electoral college composed of local and provincial representatives will elect 18 members of Nepal’s National Assembly on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Nepal’s parliament consists of two houses: the directly elected lower House of Representatives and the indirectly chosen National Assembly. While the National Assembly consists of 59 members that serve six-year terms, an election occurs every two years to fill one-third of the seats. The upcoming vote will focus on 18 seats of members whose terms are expiring. One other member will be nominated by the president on the government’s recommendation. According to local media, negotiations are underway between Nepal’s four major political parties to split the vacant seats.
The impact
Following the deadly Gen Z-led anti-government protests across Nepal in September 2025, after which former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli was forced to resign and the House of Representatives dissolved, analysts will be keeping a close eye on the upper house election as a potential hot spot for future unrest. The country will also hold lower house votes in March as it continues to grapple with political and economic instability.
Jan. 25 | Third phase of Myanmar elections
The third and final round of general elections in Myanmar will take place Sunday amid ongoing conflict in the country.
What’s happened so far
The first phase of the vote, which elects seats for national and regional legislatures, took place on Dec. 28. 2025, covering 330 townships. The second round took place on Jan. 11, mostly covering townships under military control. The final stage will cover the remaining townships, however dozens are expected to be left out amid ongoing fighting.
The impact
The final results are expected to be announced later this month, with a new government to come into power by April. These elections, the first since the military coup in 2021, have been organized and controlled by the military junta, with most opposition parties banned or unable to operate and public criticism resulting in large penalties. Given the circumstances, the junta is expected to consolidate power in these elections, which could ramp up fighting by resistance groups.
Jan. 26 | Australia Day
Additional protective measures will be in place in Sydney on Monday as Australians celebrate their national holiday in the wake of December’s deadly Bondi Beach attack.
What's happened so far
Stringent security measures are being put in place following the December gun attack on Bondi Beach in which two gunmen targeted a Hanukkah event and killed 15 people. A protest ban, enacted in the wake of the attack, has been extended for an additional two weeks and will continue through the holiday. New South Wales Police said the geographic scope of the ban has been limited and will include areas of Sydney’s eastern suburbs and the CBD. Police confirmed a protest by the First Nations community will be permitted to go ahead with additional officers deployed.
The impact
Visitors to the Australia Day Live concert in Sydney will have to pass through airport-style security with checkpoints, bag inspections and scanners, and will not be allowed to carry a number of prohibited items. New South Wales Police said a variety of units, including canine and mounted units, will be present, and officers will have enhanced firepower.
Jan. 27 | EU-India summit in New Delhi
European Union leaders Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa are expected to visit India for its 77th Republic Day celebrations on Tuesday and participate in key summit talks as India and the EU near a historic trade agreement.
What's happened so far
India and the EU have been negotiating a free trade agreement for nearly two decades, but recent trade instability due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs has sparked new urgency among global powers to secure free trade. Just last week, the EU signed its largest-ever trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur.
The impact
If finalized, the EU-India deal could transform the global economy, creating a market of two billion people, according to Von der Leyen. Free trade agreements have attracted controversy among domestic producers in both India and the EU, however, triggering farmers’ protests in India and Europe.
Jan. 27 | Indian Bank employees’ union strike
India’s United Forum of Banks Unions (UFBU) announced a nationwide strike on Tuesday to demand a five-day workweek in the country’s banking sector.
What's happened so far
Bank employees currently receive a day off every second and fourth Saturday of the month, with the current demand asking for the remaining two Saturdays off as well. The UFBU, an umbrella organization representing nine bank employee associations, said the issue was already agreed upon during wage negotiations in March 2024 but was never implemented.
The impact
Tuesday’s strike follows the weekend, including the fourth Saturday already given off, as well as Republic Day, a public holiday, on Monday, meaning banks could remain closed for four consecutive days. To offset the widespread disruption in essential banking service for customers, the UFBU proposed adding an extra 40 minutes to each day of the prior workweek. Digital banking and ATMs are expected to remain largely unaffected.
Jan. 29 | Bangladesh to resume direct flights with Pakistan
Biman Bangladesh Airlines confirmed the restart of the route between Dhaka and Karachi on Thursday, restoring an air link that has been suspended since 2012.
What's happened so far
The new service will operate twice weekly on Thursday and Saturdays on a trial basis until the end of March with potential for expansion. During the suspension, travelers between the two countries were forced to seek indirect routes usually through the Gulf hubs of Dubai and Doha. The airline said the resumption of the route “will significantly improve connectivity between Bangladesh and Pakistan, supporting business travel, tourism, and family reunions.”
The impact
The move comes amid a warming of relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh following the ouster of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024. Since then, trade between the two countries has increased and cultural links have expanded, with figures from the State Bank of Pakistan showing bilateral trade increasing by 20 percent to around $865 million over the last fiscal year. Pakistan will likely continue to expand links with Bangladesh, capitalizing on the deterioration of ties between Delhi and Dhaka after Hasina fled to India. Discussions are also underway for a potential military pact to supply Bangladesh with JF-17 Thunder fighter jets.
Jan. 30 | U.S. government funding deadline
Another major U.S. government funding deadline is approaching on Friday.
What's happened so far
This month’s funding deadline follows the longest government shutdown in U.S. history late last year that lasted 42 days before being ended by a legislative package that funded some government functions through September 2026 but others through January, forcing Congress to once again come together to pass funding packages. A bipartisan $1.2 trillion agreement was released earlier this week with the hopes of averting another prolonged shutdown, though votes in both chambers remain a looming hurdle.
The impact
Perhaps the most contentious sticking point of the latest funding bill will be Department of Homeland Security expenditures given the department’s purview over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). In the wake of the fatal ICE shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis, Congressional Democrats have worked to use the impending stopgap to increase scrutiny and oversight of ICE as its operations sprawl in major American cities. Despite the agency already having been appropriated $75 billion by President Donald Trump’s signature on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Democrats are seeking to tie the additional funding to oversight measures such as body cameras.
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What Else Matters
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Trump threatens Greenland’s sovereignty
The European-American trade will likely escalate as President Donald Trump’s threats to take control of Greenland continue. Trump sees the semi-autonomous Danish island as a crucial piece in America’s Arctic strategy moving forward, especially as melting ice caps give way to new Arctic Ocean trade routes. When prompted, other American officials said they are eyeing Greenland’s significant mineral deposits, even if accessing them is not immediately viable. Trump’s threats to “purchase” Greenland began shortly after his election, but have escalated since his Western Hemisphere policy was emboldened by the successful capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. In response, a handful of European nations, including France, the United Kingdom and Denmark, have deployed a small number of troops to conduct "reconnaissance" in Greenland. On Saturday, Trump announced a 10 percent tariff increase on eight European nations who have voiced support for a Danish-controlled Denmark.
Watch for: European officials have floated several potential retaliatory trade measure and are reportedly considering the “anti-coercion instrument,” or essentially targeted sanctions that could be applied to individuals and companies they feel are hindering EU and U.S. trade relations. Numerous EU leaders, including Trump, are present in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum this week, where back-channel negotiations will take place. As trading with the United States becomes increasingly unstable and untenable, other NATO members have sought to diversify their export markets. The EU recently reached a controversial trade deal with South America’s Mercosur nations, while Canada announced a significant trade detente with China in the past week. Finally, only 6 percent of Greenland residents support U.S. annexation, and protesters have consistently gathered outside the U.S. Embassy in Nuuk to voice their sovereignty.
Forecast Podcast
Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Owen Bonertz discuss US President Trump's demands to control Greenland, plus more on Australia Day, India’s summit with the EU, Bangladesh resuming flights with Pakistan and a US government funding deadline.
This episode includes work from Factal editors Owen Bonertz, David Wyllie, Vivian Wang, James Morgan and Alex Moore. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe.
U.S. winter storm
Millions of Americans are bracing for a major winter storm expected to sweep over a broad swath of the United States this week, bringing the potential for heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain from the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. Meteorologists expect the storm to be bolstered by a frigid arctic air mass forecast to surge over the north-central part of the country on Thursday, with wind chills below -50 degrees possible. Heavy snow is expected to begin Friday in the southern high plains of Colorado, with the threat gradually shifting eastward through the weekend. At the same time, a significant ice storm is forecast to begin Friday in Texas before moving east through the Deep South, toward the Carolinas.
Watch for: Forecasters warned Wednesday that the path of the storm and its exact timing remain unclear, however, “confidence is high that a significant storm will occur.” Impacts from the extreme cold are expected to be prolonged due to the duration and extent of the storm, with power outages, tree damage and hazardous travel conditions anticipated. Officials warned people in the path of the storm to be prepared for impacts that could last for several days, and governors in both North and South Carolina have declared preemptive states of emergency.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 23-30
Jan. 24
- Legislative Assembly elections in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan
Jan. 25
- Nepal upper house election
- Third phase of Myanmar elections
- Egypt's Police Day
Jan. 26
- India's Republic Day
- Australia Day
Jan. 27
- Indian Bank employees' union planned strike
- EU-India summit in New Delhi
Jan. 29
- Bangladesh to resume direct flights with Pakistan
Jan. 30
- U.S. government funding deadline
Jan. 31-Feb. 6
Feb. 1
- Start of conscription for Jordan military service
- Costa Rican general election
Feb. 3
- New START Treaty expiration
Feb. 6
- Winter Olympics begin in Milan
- Three-day Basant festival in Lahore
Feb. 7-13
Feb. 7
- Haiti's Presidential Transitional Council mandate ends
Feb. 8
- Super Bowl
- Thailand snap election
Feb. 10
- General strike in Argentina
Feb. 12
- Bangladesh parliamentary election and July Charter referendum
Feb. 14-20
Feb. 16
- Presidents' Day in U.S.
Feb. 17
- Lunar New Year
Feb. 18
- Ash Wednesday
- First night of Ramadan
Feb. 19
- Former South Korean President Yoon to be sentenced over 2024 insurrection
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Top photo: Additional protective measures will be in place Monday in Sydney, Australia, for the country's national holiday in the wake of December's attack in Bondi Beach. (Photo: DaHuzyBru / Wikimedia Commons / CC SA 4.0)
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