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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
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Week of Oct. 3-10
A Look Ahead
Oct. 3 – Italian rail strike
One of Italy’s largest unions, Si-Cobas, has called for a 24-hour rail strike running from Thursday night through to 8:59 p.m. on Friday.
What’s happened so far
The move marks the latest in a series of strikes calling for action from the Italian government over Gaza. Rome has stopped short of recognizing Palestinian statehood, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni saying it could only happen if the Israeli hostages were freed and Hamas removed from government. The strike will impact services run by Trenitalia, Trenord and Italo, and companies have warned the walkout could lead to timetable changes before and after the designated strike times. Italy guarantees regional rail services during strikes on weekdays from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. to 9 p.m.
The impact
Mass disruption is expected throughout Friday and Italian rail companies have warned customers to check digital channels in advance for cancellations and rail replacements. The next strikes impacting railway services have been called for Oct. 8 and Oct. 21 and further protest action is highly likely as trade unions continue to express anger over the Italian government’s perceived lack of action on Gaza.
Oct. 3 – Czech Republic parliamentary elections
The Czech Republic will hold closely-watched parliamentary elections on Friday that could bring a populist former Prime Minister Andrej Babis back to power.
What’s happened so far
The vote will decide all 200 seats in the lower house of the parliament. The ruling center-right coalition led by Petr Fiala is seeking another term but has faced backlash over economic stagnation and favoring higher incomes for politicians over lower costs. While no party is expected to win a majority outright, Babis’s ANO party is leading the polls, running on a platform of expanded social spending and tax relief.
The impact
Babis has not ruled out cooperation with the far-right SPT or the new nationalist-left Sacilo party, both of which have pushed anti-NATO, anti-EU and pro-Russia narratives. A shift in power could alter the country’s stance on the war in Ukraine, NATO and its role in the EU. The vote also marks a crucial junction with Czech citizens abroad now allowed to participate in the elections through mail-in ballots.
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Oct. 4 – Leadership election for Japan’s LDP
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new leader on Saturday to replace the country’s outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
What’s happened so far
Earlier this month, Ishiba announced his decision to step down after the ruling coalition lost parliamentary majority in July’s upper house election. The decision triggered snap elections for the LDP to select a leader to replace Ishiba. A total of five contenders have been announced, including former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, both of whom ran in a party leadership race last September. The winner of the race is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister and navigate challenges such as persistent inflation, heightened regional tensions and relations with the United States, as well as rebuilding the LDP battered by a series of slush funds scandals.
The impact
Both candidates leading the polls have promised changes in the country’s fiscal policies if they win the race. Takaichi, if elected, could become Japan’s first female prime minister. The conservative candidate has vowed to increase spending and cut taxes, as well as restarting nuclear power plants and screening foreign investment in sensitive industries. On the other hand, the son of a prominent political family, Koizumi could become the country’s youngest leader in the post-war era if elected. Koizumi has pledged to boost wages and productivity to counter the cost-of-living crisis.
Oct. 5 – Syria parliamentary elections
Syria will hold its parliamentary elections on Sunday, the first since the ousting of former long-time President Bashar al-Assad in December last year.
What’s happened so far
Originally set to take place in mid-September, preparations are now in place to host the country’s first parliamentary election since the formation of the new government, headed by President Ahmed al-Sharaa. A third of the 210 seats in the Syrian parliament are set to be appointed by him, while the remaining two-thirds will be selected by their respective electoral bodies. Foreign observers are also expected to be allowed into the country to oversee the voting process.
The impact
These elections will be key in laying the framework for the future democratic building of the country and in reshaping Syria’s foreign policies aimed at overhauling decades of crippling economy and civil war. The incumbent government has pledged to represent Syria’s varied ethnic and religious population in the election process, including the Kurdish majority in the north and Druze majority in the southeast. Sectarian violence has come as a constant source of concern in the country, after a series of deadly fighting broke out in Latakia with the Alawite minority in March and in Sweida with the Druze population in July. Analysts will be observing whether al-Sharaa is able to fully include his country’s diverse population in the new parliament.
Oct. 7 – French air controllers strike
French air traffic control union SNCT will hold a national three-day strike starting Tuesday after last month’s action was suspended due to the fall of François Bayrou’s government.
What’s happened so far
A strike was scheduled to take place on Sept. 18, but the union delayed it after Bayrou’s vote of confidence was rejected. Now, SNCT confirmed it will go ahead with new strike action next week, calling for better work and pay conditions. According to the union’s notice, workers also demand changes in their profession’s requalification plan and safety measurements.
The impact
The strike is expected to bring many flights to a halt across the country, with people urged to check with their airlines before traveling to airports. It comes just days after a fresh national strike across all sectors on Thursday, and also while the government, now headed by Sebastien Lecornu, tries to finally present the budget, which needs to be finished by the end of the month.
Oct. 8 – Israeli opposition heads meet
Leaders of Israel’s main opposition parties and an influential former prime minister will meet on Wednesday as they seek to coordinate opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.
What’s happened so far
The leaders represent the so-called “Change Bloc” comprising left-wing, centrist and right-wing parties that are in opposition to Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition which currently governs Israel following the 2022 election. Netanyahu’s coalition is made up of his own Likud Party and a number of smaller parties widely seen as ranging from right-wing to far-right. This meeting of opposition leaders includes former Israeli military chief Benny Gantz, representing the Blue and White party, as well as former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is also leading his own party into the next election. Israeli opposition leader and Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid is also part of the bloc, along with Yisrael Beytenu party chair Avigdor Liberman.
The impact
Israel isn’t due to hold a general election until late 2026 but analysts believe that an election may follow the adoption of a Gaza peace deal, potentially forced by a collapse in the governing coalition or Netanyahu choosing to seek a new mandate from the people. A coordinated opposition could move to exploit any sudden resignations and force elections.
Oct. 9 – Comey arraignment
James Comey, the former director of the FBI, is scheduled to be arraigned at a federal courthouse in Virginia on Thursday following pressure from President Donald Trump.
What’s happened so far
Trump and Comey’s animosity dates back to Trump’s first term, when he fired Comey as his FBI director in 2017 during the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Comey’s charges date back to a 2020 Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, when he affirmed that he didn’t authorize a leak about the Clinton Foundation. Trump, after forcing out a federal prosecutor who didn’t bring charges against Comey, appointed Lindsey Halligan, one of his former personal defense attorneys. She was reportedly able to persuade 14 of 23 jurors to indict Comey on two counts, but not a third. He declared his innocence later that night, saying “let’s have a trial.”
The impact
Trump is making no secret that this is part of an attempt at retribution against his political rivals, saying there will be more. He’s specifically called out New York Attorney General Letitia James and Democratic Senator Adam Schiff as people he wants to see charged. Many legal experts say the Comey case faces multiple obstacles, including a lack of evidence of his alleged lie. No matter the outcome, it shatters the traditional norms of keeping the Department of Justice as apolitical as possible with no outside influence. This could lead to a new phase for Trump, in which he goes after political opponents using the power of the presidency.
What Else Matters
Federal troop deployment to Portland, Ore.
President Donald Trump announced Saturday in a Truth Social post he had directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to provide all necessary troops to “war-ravaged” Portland, Ore., while “authorizing Full Force, if necessary.” The announcement immediately prompted pushback from local officials, with Mayor Keith Wilson saying, “the number of troops we want is zero,” while Governor Tina Kotek claimed the president “has chosen to disregard Oregonians’ safety and ability to govern ourselves.”
Watch for: As of Tuesday afternoon, the 200 Oregon National Guard members authorized to perform federal functions had yet to be seen on the streets of the Rose City, with a hearing set for 11 a.m. PT Friday on a motion from Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield for a temporary restraining order. Meanwhile, further deployments appear likely to other U.S. cities. Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry announced Monday he had requested the activation of up to 1,000 Louisiana National Guard personnel, to address “ongoing public safety concerns” in the state, while Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said earlier this week the Trump administration wants to deploy 100 military troops to his state amid continued threats from the president of a federal presence in Chicago.
Anti-government “Gen Z” protests in Madagascar
Protests began on Sept. 22 at a university in Madagascar capital Antananarivo as youth-lead demonstrations demanded a solution to the country’s persistent electricity and water shortages. Mirroring tactics of recent protest movements in Nepal and Indonesia, Malagasy protest groups emerged on social media in “Generation Z” Facebook and WhatsApp groups. While the movement began in the capital region, it has spread to other major cities, such as Antsirabe, Toamasina and Antsiranana. Demonstrators have reportedly ransacked business, set fire to transit stations, and burned the homes of three politicians in the past week. Malagasy security forces have used live ammunition and tear gas against crowds, with the United Nations reporting at least 22 people killed and more than 100 injured during the past week.
Watch for: President Andriy Rajoelina announced Tuesday that he will dissolve the country’s government, meaning a new cabinet and prime minister will be appointed in the coming days. Reports circulated on Sept. 26 that Malagasy officials were considering shutting down internet services to quell the protests, which the government quickly denied. Curfews have been implemented in most of the country’s major cities, including Antananarivo. Despite Rajoelina’s commitment to appointing a new cabinet, both the protests, and the power cuts, have continued across the country.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Oct. 3-10
Oct. 3
- Czech parliamentary election
- Sean “Diddy” Combs’ sentencing hearing
- Italian rail strike
- Grand Duke of Luxembourg to abdicate throne
Oct. 4
- Leadership election for Japan’s LDP
Oct. 5
- Cameroon presidential election
- Syria parliamentary elections
Oct. 7
- French air controllers strike
Oct. 8
- Israeli opposition heads meet
- U.S. House panel asks online forum CEOs to testify after Charlie Kirk assassination
Oct. 9
- AG Pam Bondi will testify before U.S. House Judiciary Committee
Oct. 10
- Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 will be announced
Oct. 11-17
Oct. 12
- Portugal elections
- Cameroon presidential election
- Port of Dover and Folkestone Eurotunnel adopt EU digital border system
Oct. 13
- SpaceX plans 11th test flight of Starship
- 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group
Oct. 14
- Newfoundland and Labrador elections
- Brussels airport to cancel all outgoing flights due to strike
Oct. 15
- Russia-Arab summit
Oct. 16
- Turkey to hold 5G tender
- European Parliament and China’s National People’s Congress meeting
- Congo to replace cobalt export ban with quotas
Oct. 18-24
Oct. 19
- Bolivian presidential election runoff
Oct. 20
- 20th CPC Central Committee to hold fourth plenary session
Oct. 24
- Irish presidential election
Oct. 25-31
Oct. 25
- Ivory Coast presidential election
Oct. 26
- Argentina midterm elections
Oct. 29
- Netherlands elections
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
Oct. 30
- APEC summit in South Korea
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Top photo: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, during which Trump announced a new peace proposal for Israel and Hamas. (Photo: Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian)
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