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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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Week of Dec. 12-19
A Look Ahead
Dec. 12 | Italy general strike
A general strike is planned across Italy starting on Friday.
What’s happened so far
Widespread disruption to public transportation is anticipated across Italy later this week after the country’s largest trade union called for a general strike in protest against the 2026 budget proposed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Meloni’s budget, which includes tax cuts, will nonetheless spearhead Italy’s planned increases in defense spending and has come under fire from Italian unions for not prioritizing social spending and public salaries enough.
The impact
Similar strikes launched in late November triggered severe disruption to travel in Italy, with dozens of domestic flights impacted along with widespread cancellations to regional rail as well as local public transportation in cities such as Rome. This Friday’s planned strikes threaten similar disruption across Italy, with national and regional rail services suspended all day until 9 p.m. local time Friday.
Dec. 13 | Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Tbilisi, Georgia
Georgia will host Junior Eurovision on Saturday, a singing competition for contestants between 9 and 14 years old with 18 countries participating.
What’s happened so far
The competition, founded in 2003, will feature 18 children who have been selected to represent their nations at the Gymnastic Hall of the Olympic City in Tbilisi, Georgia. Georgia’s Andria Putkaradze won last year’s competition with the song “To My Mom”, giving Georgia the opportunity to host this year’s competition.
The impact
This year’s competition will be available to watch on YouTube, and will be broadcast in each of the 18 participating countries. The event is highly anticipated, offering an opportunity for young musicians to showcase their talents and represent their country on a global stage. Israel’s inclusion in the adult competition in 2026 has prompted several countries to boycott the competition, including Ireland, Spain, Slovenia and the Netherlands.
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Dec. 13 | Libya elections
Voters will go to the polls in nine of Libya’s municipalities on Saturday for local council elections.
What’s happened so far
Earlier this month, officials confirmed municipal elections would be held for offices in nine areas: Tobruk, Qasr Al-Jedi, Benghazi, Suluq, Sabha, Sirte, Tokra, Qaminis and Al-Abyar. Saturday’s vote is part of the third group of elections for the year. Campaigning began Nov. 21, with more than 100,000 voter cards delivered to registered voters. Saturday’s vote comes months after authorities suspended council elections in 16 municipalities due to security and logistical reasons. The electoral process was later resumed peacefully, earning praise from the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.
The impact
The vote is part of a new phase of municipal council elections that officials say are aimed at improving services and reactivating local institutions. It comes as officials set their sights on mid-April 2026 for presidential and parliamentary elections. Those elections were originally supposed to have been held in 2018, though they were postponed twice. In order to hold the elections, officials have asked for a mechanism to support and oversee the process, which is complicated by the fact that Libya has two rival governments running the country.
Dec. 14 | Chile presidential runoff
On Sunday, voters across Chile will choose between figures from the far-right and the country’s Communist Party in the runoff election for the presidency.
What’s happened so far
No candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in the Nov. 16 presidential election, forcing the top two into a runoff. Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara, backed by the country’s governing coalition, narrowly edged out far-right ultraconservative lawyer José Antonio Kast, who lost the 2021 presidential runoff. A likely consolidation of right-wing and populist votes has made Kast the favorite to win, as Jara was the sole left-wing candidate in a crowded field of conservatives. Kast, who ran a Trump-like campaign on issues including immigration, crime and smaller government, has maintained a consistent polling lead over Jara going into the upcoming runoff.
The impact
The winner will become president of Chile and is expected to be inaugurated for a five-year term in March 2026. If Kast wins, Chile will become the latest Latin American nation to elect a right-wing populist as leader.
Dec. 14 | ECOWAS extraordinary meeting on Guinea-Bissau
Representatives from the Western African bloc ECOWAS will meet Guinea-Bissau’s military on Sunday to discuss the country’s situation after the coup in late November.
What’s happened so far
On Nov. 26, Guinea-Bissau’s military seized power a day before the result was due for the contested presidential election, where the ousted president Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his main challenger Fernando Dias had both claimed victory. The African Union and West African regional bloc ECOWAS released a joint statement condemning the power grab shortly after. On Nov. 28, ECOWAS suspended Guinea-Bissau’s membership from all decision-making bodies, stressing the need to “restore constitutional order.” Following negotiations led by ECOWAS, Embalo was transferred to Senegal, whereas Dias was granted protection at the Nigerian embassy in the capital Bissau.
The impact
ECOWAS has failed to persuade Guinea-Bissau’s military to stand down in a preliminary virtual meeting after the coup. Countries from the regional bloc are expected to gather again and make decisions regarding the country’s future in the upcoming conference. Officials have warned of possible sanctions on Guinea Bissau, urging military officers to allow the resumption of the electoral process.
What Else Matters
Attempted coup in Benin
In the early hours of Sunday, soldiers stormed the headquarters of Benin’s national television station in the capital Cotonou and declared they were overtaking the government. In the announcement, the group calling itself the Military Committee for Refoundation claimed that they had ousted President Patrice Talon, suspended the constitution and closed the borders of the country. The sound of explosions and gunfire was then heard throughout the day in the city, until government forces eventually surrounded the buildings that had been infiltrated by the mutineers, including some bases. Benin’s interior minister later announced that the situation was “under control,” with Talon himself adding that authorities successfully thwarted a coup attempt. The situation in Cotonou has been described as “calm” since Sunday, with most embassies that had initially issued shelter-in-place alerts now deeming the conditions safe.
Watch for: The coup attempt in Benin marks the latest in a long series of mutiny attempts in West Africa, prompting ECOWAS to declare a state of emergency across the region, citing an “urgent need to invest in the security of our community.” A country that seemed particularly concerned about a change in government in Benin was its neighbor Nigeria, who, for the first time since 2017, engaged in foreign military intervention by sending multiple air force aircraft to assist in what it said was “attacking targets.” Although the attempt may have failed, analysts say it epitomizes the general sentiment of the population of West Africa at a time when Islamist violence surges across the Sahel and disillusionment with traditional political rulers is palpable. Despite Benin being regarded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies, this latest incident raises questions about Talon’s popularity particularly as upcoming elections are set to take place in the country in April next year.
Yemen split
Separatists in Yemen, one of the world’s poorest countries, have turned on their allies making up the country’s internationally recognized government, taking control of multiple provinces in a swift military operation that appears aimed at cementing the end of the nation’s 1990 unification. The United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council over the weekend seized the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen’s second-largest city and home of the Saudi Arabian-backed government fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis in control of the nation’s northern territory.
Watch for: Although part of the anti-Houthi coalition, STC’s publicly declared goal had been breaking away Southern Yemen to form its own state. The group earlier this month took control of the oil-rich Hadramout region bordering Saudi Arabia, and now appears positioned to consolidate power from its partner government weakened by years of fighting with the Houthis. Foreign powers with interest in Yemen’s important geographic location are likely to influence its future, including determining whether STC’s apparent secession attempt is successful. Outside of direct backers of Yemen’s warring parties, the European Union is reiterating its support for the Saudi-backed administration. U.S. officials have yet to take a position on the latest escalation, aside from a brief, non-specific statement.
Extended Outlook
What's on our radar in the coming weeks...
Dec. 12-19
Dec. 12
- Italy general strike
Dec. 13
- Junior Eurovision Song Contest in Tbilisi, Georgia
- Libya elections
Dec. 14
- Chile presidential runoff
- ECOWAS extraordinary meeting on Guinea-Bissau
- Hanukkah begins
Dec. 15
- U.S. Coast Guard to classify swastika, nooses and the Confederate flag as“potentially divisive”
Dec. 17
- Runoff of second phase of Egypt's parliamentary elections
Dec. 20-26
Dec. 21
- Africa Cup of Nations begins
Dec. 23
- Bidding for Pakistan International Airlines (PIA)
- Deadline for French parliamentary 2026 budget work to conclude
Dec. 24
- Christmas Eve
Dec. 25
- Christmas Day
Dec. 26
- Kwanzaa begins
Dec. 27-Jan. 2
Dec. 28
- Guinea presidential election
- Kosovo parliamentary elections
- Myanmar elections
- Central African Republic general elections
Dec. 31
- New Year's Eve
Jan. 1
- Bulgaria expected to become 21st country to use euro
- New Year's Day
Jan. 3-9
Jan. 4
- Critics Choice Awards 2026
Jan. 5
- Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns from Congress
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Top photo: ECOWAS members will meet Sunday to discuss the situation in Guinea-Bissau after a coup attempt in late November. (Photo: ECOWAS)
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