Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
A strong earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan on Sunday night near the border with Pakistan, killing more than 1,400 people and injuring thousands more. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss the quake’s destruction as well as the challenges facing the rescue and recovery efforts.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 5-12
A Look Ahead
Sept. 6 Nepal-China joint military drill begins
The fifth iteration of joint military exercises between Nepal and China will begin in Nepal on Saturday and continue for 10 days, with a focus on counterterrorism and disaster management.
What’s happened so far
Nepal and China began holding annual joint military drills in 2017, but were suspended during the coronavirus pandemic. Nepal regularly conducts exercises with not only China, but India and the U.S. as well, with Nepal’s defense ministry spokesperson saying the drills “are not targeted at any particular country.”
The impact
Nepal remains in a precarious geopolitical position, according to analysts, as a country physically surrounded by superpowers India and China, with the U.S. often interested in countering China’s presence in the region. Around 150 personnel will participate in this exercise, according to local media reports, while an exact location has not been disclosed.
Sept. 8 French confidence vote
French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a vote of confidence on his government will take place on Monday in a bid to resolve a budget impasse.
What’s happened so far
Bayrou surprised everyone when he unveiled he would ask parliament to hold a vote of confidence amid the ongoing deadlock over planned budget cuts, which include €44 billion ($51 billion USD) in spending cuts and tax increases. President Emannuel Macron said the prime minister has his “full support” and asked all political parties “to act responsibly.”
The impact
The decision has once again driven France into a political crisis, with many fearing the country is headed for yet another snap election. Opposition parties have already suggested they will not approve the austerity budget, with the far-right National Rally even saying it is ready to lead with a relative majority if the country goes for fresh elections. Bayrou has spent recent days trying to gain support, while warning the “fate of France” is at stake in the vote. This instability also comes at the time when the country is bracing for new labor strikes on Sept. 18, during which members of eight trade unions are expected to take part.
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Sept. 8 DHS temporary status for Honduras and Nicaragua set to expire
Legal immigration protections for Hondurans and Nicaraguans in the United States will expire on Monday.
What’s happened so far
A federal appeals court sided with the Trump administration in its efforts to expand those eligible for deportation by removing Department of Homeland Security legal protected status for more than 50,000 migrants from Honduras and Nicaragua. Trump had initially moved to remove temporary protected status for Hondurans during his first term in 2018, though the Biden administration reinstated the order.
The impact
Temporary protected status for both nationalities were initially granted in the late-90s after Hurricane Mitch decimated Central America, killing more than 10,000 people. This means that many of those set to become eligible for deportation have lived in the United States for more than 25 years. The Trump administration has sought to remove temporary protected status for numerous nationalities, including hundreds of thousands from Ukraine, Haiti and Venezuela, as part of its aggressive crackdown on immigration across the board.
Sept. 8 Norway parliamentary elections
On Monday, voters in Norway will elect 169 members of the country’s parliament, known as the Storting. Some areas of Norway will begin voting the day before.
What’s happened so far
The last parliamentary election, held in 2021, saw Norway’s Labour Party emerge as the winner and though it fell short of an overall majority with 49 seats, it entered a governing coalition with the agrarian Centre Party. Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre was chosen as prime minister and has governed since then. His coalition with the Centre Party fell apart in early 2025 and saw the return of former prime minister and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as finance minister as Centre Party ministers exited the government.
The impact
Støre is seeking reelection and attempting to fend off Norway’s Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. The return of Stoltenberg and the demise of the coalition is reported to have produced a popularity bump for Labour, who have led the polls since February. With all parties likely falling well short of the 85 seats needed for a majority, coalition negotiations will dominate the post-election period.
Sept. 8 Brazil’s Lula to host virtual BRICS meet to discuss Trump’s tariffs
The international organization counting Russia, India, China and Iran as members will meet on Monday after Brazil was targeted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.
What’s happened so far
In July, Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on most of Brazil’s exports because the country’s Supreme Federal Court didn’t halt the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is facing charges of attempting a coup to stop Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from becoming president. That trial is now underway. Brazil also filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization. It comes at a time in which Trump also increased tariffs on India to 50 percent after his relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi soured, reportedly over Modi’s refusal to nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The tariff hike is ostensibly due to India’s reliance on Russian oil and weapons.
The impact
The members of BRICS all face different tariff rates, which makes coordination against the United States unlikely. However, Lula reportedly sees this as an opportunity not to bash the United States but to increase cooperation with the other countries in the BRICS bloc. Brazil also apparently looks at this as a chance to reshape the WTO. That could be a stepping stone to challenge the U.S. and the dollar’s dominance of the global economy.
Sept. 9 UN General Assembly opens in New York City
The United Nations General Assembly will open its 80th session on Tuesday at its New York City headquarters.
What’s happened so far
The session will last until Sept. 8, 2026, and will be chaired by President-elect Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s federal minister for foreign affairs and first woman of the Western European group to hold the post. The 80th session will run under the theme “Better Together: 80 years and more for peace, development and human rights.” Baerbock expressed the priorities for her presidency are making the organization more effective, advancing the 2030 agenda for sustainable development and making the assembly a more inclusive forum.
The impact
The start of the new session takes place amid an ongoing deadlock at the UN Security Council over measures to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and will be marked by an effort led by France, which includes Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Belgium, to recognize Palestine as a state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other Palestinian officials have been denied visas to attend the UNGA by the U.S. government. UNGA’s opening will be followed by a high-level week between Sept. 22 and 26, where global leaders will hold sessions and sidelines meetings. The general debate will take place between Sept. 23 and 27 and on Sept. 29.
Sept. 9 India elects vice president
India will hold an election on Tuesday to select a new vice president after Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned from office in July this year, citing health concerns.
What’s happened so far
Dhankhar was elected vice president in August 2022 and was expected to complete the five-year mandate in 2027. The position is not up for a public vote – instead the vice president is chosen in a secret ballot by an electoral college made up of members of both houses of parliament.
The impact
Ruling party BJP’s nomination Maharashtra Governor C.P. Radhakrishnan will run against opposition INDIA bloc’s candidate Buchireddy Sudershan Reddy in the ballot. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance currently has the majority of seats in the lower and upper houses of parliament, which is likely to give Radhakrishnan an edge in the electoral race.
Sept. 10 Calls for nationwide shutdown of France
France is bracing for potential nationwide strikes and demonstrations on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
The calls for disruption across France on Sept. 10 coincide with a parliamentary confidence vote in the government of Prime Minister François Bayrou set to be held Monday. If Bayrou’s government falls in the vote, it may temper protests without a standing government to demonstrate against, or it could leave President Emmanuel Macron to deal with the fallout if people still turn out over Bayrou’s controversial plans to slash the budget and remove two national work holidays.
The impact
These nationwide protest calls appear to be largely decentralized and relatively apolitical, harkening back to the Yellow Vest movement of the late-2010s. While loosely linked initially to a far-right anti-EU group, the protest calls have since been co-signed by mainstream French political parties including left-wing movements such as France Unbowed and the Socialist Party. Though the movement is decentralized compared to typical union strike calls, widespread disruption across France is expected.
What Else Matters
Afghanistan earthquake
More than 1,400 people have been killed and more than 3,000 others injured in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nangarhar provinces following a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on Sunday night. According to the United States Geological Service, the earthquake struck some 33 miles west-southwest of Asadabad, the capital of Kunar province, at a depth of around 5 miles, making it a shallow tremor. Several villages have been completely destroyed in the earthquake, according to Taliban officials, with the toll expected rise as rescue efforts continue. Since Sunday, the region has been hit by several aftershocks, including a strong magnitude 5.5 earthquake on Tuesday. Although no injuries were reported from Tuesday’s aftershock, ensuing rockfall and landslides have made rescue efforts, already hampered by rough terrain, more challenging.
Watch for: While Afghanistan is prone to earthquakes, the country has faced a declining economy and poor infrastructure since the Taliban takeover in 2021, leading to inadequate disaster management and risk mitigation. Local authorities have flown hundreds of helicopter flights to rescue people from hard-to-reach areas and bring them to hospitals in Kabul and Jalalabad. Flash floods, which struck the province of Nangarhar on Saturday, have also set back rescue operations by blocking roads, destroying bridges and isolating people in affected areas. Floodwaters have also blocked key transportation routes, hindering authorities from delivering critical aid, including food, water and medical supplies. Although the main highway between Jalalabad and Kunar has reopened, many roads within Kunar province remain inaccessible.
Sudan landslide
As many as 1,000 people are believed to have died in a landslide in the village of Tarsin in Darfur, Sudan’s remote Marrah Mountains, on Sunday. News of the disaster did not circulate in the Sudanese press for many hours, in part due to the town’s extreme isolation. Tarsin is only accessible by animal transport or a three-hour hike, which has hampered any significant disaster response. The town was governed by the Sudan Liberation Movement, a rebel group not affiliated with either of the main factions of Sudan’s larger civil war. The Sudan Liberation Movement were the first to announce the landslide, and UN officials have largely corroborated their claims. Search and rescue operations are taking place for more victims, and nine bodies have been recovered thus far.
Watch for: In addition to international organizations, Sudan’s central government and armed forces have pledged to send resources to aid in the disaster response. The situation is compounding with the country’s numerous other humanitarian disasters. Darfur’s largest city, El Fasher, has endured a months-long siege as RSF paramilitaries surround the military-controlled city. The civil war has caused widespread famine and has forced thousands of people to flee combat zones. In Tawila, North Darfur, a deadly cholera outbreak has swept through an internally displaced people’s camp and claimed more than 2,400 lives. While the landslide does not drastically change the dynamics of the civil war, it represents a test to see if the warring rebel and government factions can coordinate a proper response.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 5-12
Sept. 5
- Tube strike planned in U.K.
Sept. 6
- Nepal-China joint military drill to kick off
Sept. 7
- Israel’s Netanyahu visits Argentina
- MTV Video Music Awards
Sept. 8
- Norway parliamentary elections
- French confidence vote
Sept. 9
- UN General Assembly opens in New York City
- Asia Cup begins
- Apple Event
Sept. 10
- Nigerian court to rule on bail for deadly church attack suspects
Sept. 13-19
Sept. 13
- Indian PM Modi likely to visit violence-hit Manipur, Mizoram
Sept. 14
- 77th Primetime Emmy Awards
Sept. 15
- Syria parliamentary elections
Sept. 16
- Malawi general election
Sept. 17
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
- Trump’s second U.K. state visit
Sept. 18
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to visit Mexico
- French Labour Trade Union Chief announces nationwide strike action over budget draft
Sept. 20-26
Sept. 21
- Guinea’s junta holds referendum on Constitution
Sept. 22
- Trump goes to UNGA
- Enhanced security measures at Indian airports begins
Sept. 23
- Uganda presidential election nominations
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Sept. 27-Oct. 3
Sept. 27
- Papua New Guinea local government polling starts
- Iceland parliamentary elections
- Seychelles general election
Sept. 28
- Moldovan parliamentary election
- Dutch carrier KLM to resume Tel Aviv-Amsterdam route
Sept. 29
- Blue Origin’s 2nd New Glenn rocket launch will fly twin NASA Mars probes to space
Sept. 30
- U.S. government funding set to expire, leading to possible shutdown
Oct. 3
- Czech parliamentary election
Top photo: French Prime Minister François Bayrou has asked parliament to hold a vote of confidence on his government on Monday amid a budget impasse. (Photo: Nikesh / Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA)
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