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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace in recent weeks have led to questions over whether the incidents were unintentional or an attempt by Putin to test the alliance’s resolve. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss the response to the violations and what to watch for next.
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Week of Sept. 26-Oct. 3
A Look Ahead
Sept. 25 Turkish president visits the White House
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will return to Washington, D.C., on Thursday for the first time in four years to meet with President Donald Trump.
What’s happened so far
Erdogan last visited the White House in 2019 during Trump’s first term. Developments in Ukraine and Syria have strained the relationship between the two countries in recent years, with Turkish officials demanding the United States halt support of Kurdish rebel groups in conflict with Turkish-proxies in Syria. Turkey has also taken a largely neutral stance in the war on Ukraine, including inking a deal before the war to buy air defense systems from Russia. The S-400 air defense system deal angered the Americans, who decided to exclude their NATO ally, Turkey, from participating in the development of the F-35 fighter jet.
The impact
Turkey is reportedly set to purchase “hundreds” of planes from American firms Boeing and Lockheed Martin, with more details likely to be announced in Washington. At the same time, the United States and Turkey are more aligned on Syria’s future than in Trump’s first term. The Trump administration has shown a willingness to roll back sanctions on the Turkey-backed Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. The second Trump administration has also taken a more conciliatory approach towards Russia, matching Turkey’s own middle-man position in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Sept. 27 Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf rally in Peshawar
The leader of Pakistan’s PTI party and former Prime Minister Imran Khan has called on his supporters to gather for a mass rally in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa capital, Peshawar, on Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Senior PTI leadership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has described the rally as a key moment in the push to secure Khan’s release. He has been imprisoned for more than two years. Khan himself is said to have framed the rally as a stand “for the nation’s freedom.” Arrested in May 2023, his detention sparked nationwide protests and unrest. Since his ousting in 2022, Khan has faced numerous court cases, including allegations of corruption, selling state gifts and inciting violence, with combined sentences totaling over 14 years.
The impact
While senior PTI figures claim the rally could be the largest in the province’s history, no official estimates for attendance have been released. Past demonstrations have led to unrest, but with PTI in control of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial government, state suppression is considered unlikely. Still, security concerns remain due to an increase in militant activity in the region in recent years.
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Sept. 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections
On Sunday, Moldovans will vote for members of its legislature, the result of which many see as having significant impact on the country’s bid to join the European Union.
What’s happened so far
While the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is hoping to retain its majority in the 101-seat parliament, a recent poll suggested that the PAS would likely be forced to form an alliance with smaller groups, with the Patriotic Bloc, a new coalition consisting of pro-Russian opposition parties, in the lead. In wake of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, Moldova applied to join the EU and was granted candidate status in 2022. The PAS sees membership of the EU as critical to the country’s future and countering increased Russian attempts to destabilize the country, including causing an energy crisis and fueling anti-government sentiment. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of spending some $178 million trying to meddle with the upcoming elections, after police carried out 250 raids as part of an investigation into alleged plans for mass riots linked to the Russian intelligence service. Russia has consistently denied accusations of interfering in Moldova’s domestic affairs.
The impact
Politicians and analysts have described the vote as one of the most consequential in Moldova’s history. If the PAS is able to hang onto power, Chisinau is likely to continue its efforts to acquire EU membership, whereas if the pro-Russian bloc wins the election, the EU bid would likely face a prolonged political struggle.
Oct. 1 Christmas begins in Venezuela
Christmas season will officially begin in Venezuela on Wednesday.
What’s happened so far
President Nicolas Maduro announced during his weekly radio show in September that the Christmas season in Venezuela will begin Oct. 1. The decree takes place for the second consecutive year with the country’s leader citing benefits to the economy and “the right to joy” for Venezuelans. The festive period will begin amid heightened tensions in the southern Caribbean sea after the deployment of United States warships and at least three deadly strikes on alleged Venezuelan narco-vessels ordered by the Trump administration (members’ link).
The impact
Venezuela has increased military presence on its coasts amid a significant push to encourage volunteer civilians to join its army-supporting militias. Maduro has qualified the United States’ recent moves as an act of aggression and as an attempt to influence a change of regime in the country. The Venezuelan government hopes another early Christmas will improve its popularity rates as the population grapples with hyperinflation and struggles to cover basic needs, including food.
Oct. 1 U.S. government funding deadline
A government shutdown is set to begin at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday if a deal is not reached on a new short-term spending bill.
What’s happened so far
Congress last passed a continuing resolution in March, with some Senate Democrats voting to advance the bill to allow its final passage along party-lines and avert a shutdown. With a deadline looming once more, the two sides appear far apart on several key issues, as Republicans seek a seven-week “clean” spending bill, while Democrats want an extension on health-care subsidies set to expire at year’s end. President Donald Trump has also shown little interest in meeting Democratic demands, scrapping a planned meeting with party leaders, calling their demands “unserious and ridiculous” to the point that it “could [not] possibly be productive.”
The impact
The Trump administration has yet to publicly release contingency plans in the event of a shutdown, leaving federal workers in the lurch on whether there have been changes to which services the government deems “essential.” The last full government shutdown came in the waning days of 2018, when an impasse over border wall funding prompted a 35-day standoff.
Oct. 3 Grand duke of Luxembourg to abdicate throne
Luxembourg’s head of state, Grand Duke Henri, will abdicate the throne on Friday in favor of his son, Prince Guillaume.
What’s happened so far
Henri, who became grand duke in 2000, announced his decision to step down during his Christmas speech last year, saying, “for most of my generation, the time has now come to retire.” The announcement came two months after Henri made Guillame his lieutenant-representative. The transition will be marked with an official ceremony in Luxembourg City on Friday, with public celebrations and events to follow on Saturday and Sunday.
The impact
Friday’s ceremony will mark a generational shift in leadership for Luxembourg, a parliamentary democracy where the grand duke serves as representative of the country’s identity. In an interview last year, Guillaume said “a new generation is not a revolution,” saying that he wants to make the monarchy more approachable to young people in continuation of work that began under his parents.
Oct. 3 Diddy sentencing hearing
The sentencing hearing for hip-hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs for the crime of transportation for prostitution will take place in New York City on Friday.
What’s happened so far
Combs was arrested in September 2024 after a grand jury indictment for the crimes of racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking, and transportation to engage in prostitution. Two further charges of sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution were added in April 2025. Combs was found guilty of transportation for prostitution but found not guilty of racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking charges in July.
The impact
In a written legal submission, Combs’ lawyers have asked for him to be sentenced to no more than 14 months in prison on the grounds that he has served a year in custody already and has been “adequately punished.” The probation department recommends Combs is sentenced to seven-and-a-quarter years.
What Else Matters
Russian drones in NATO airspace
NATO has introduced enhanced air defense missions over its eastern flank in response to a spate of airspace violations committed by Russian drones and manned aircraft this month. The mission, dubbed Eastern Sentry, follows a series of incidents in which Russian projectiles and aircraft violated NATO airspace, most notably on Sept. 10 when 19 Russian drones entered Poland and triggered the closure of four airports, including Warsaw Chopin. At least three of these drones were downed by NATO aircraft, marking the first time NATO has directly engaged Russian projectiles since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Watch for: Romania has also detected Russian drone incursions in recent days, though it’s worth noting that this incursion was situated within the context of Russian strikes on targets within Ukraine along the Danube River border, where drones have in the past strayed into Romanian territory. While these incidents have occurred occasionally throughout the war, none have approached the scale and geographic scope of the latest incursion into Poland. Elsewhere, NATO was forced to scramble jets after three manned Russian fighter jets entered Estonian skies last week and drone sighting triggered the closure of the main airports in Copenhagen and Oslo late Monday. While authorities have yet to explicitly blame Russia for the latter, statements from Danish officials have tied in the latest incident with the other more explicit Russian airspace violation. Regardless, September has marked the most significant month of NATO airspace incursions since the onset of Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine and the alliance’s heightened defensive posture in response raises the specter of more direct encounters between the two opposing sides in the near future.
Palestinian state recognition
France is the latest country to formally recognize a Palestinian state. Speaking at a New York summit co-hosted with Saudi Arabia on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron said “the time had come” to recognize a Palestinian state and “preserve the possibility of a two-state solution.” Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Portugal preceded France in recognizing Palestinian statehood on Sunday, while Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands said they would recognize Palestine at a later date.
Watch for: The wave of countries formally recognizing Palestine as a state comes as Israel faces surging criticism over its deadly war in Gaza that has left more than 65,000 people dead. Although largely a symbolic move, analysts say the formal recognition serves to provide practical support toward a two-state solution, which envisions a sovereign Palestinian state alongside an Israeli one, as well as complete demilitarization of the territory without any Hamas presence. United Nations diplomats, however, face two main issues — the unwillingness of the U.S. administration to recognize a Palestinian state and the continued illegal annexation of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which makes the possibility of an independent Palestinian state impossible.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 26-Oct. 3
Sept. 27
- Papua New Guinea local government polling starts
- Seychelles general election
- PTI rally
Sept. 28
- Moldovan parliamentary election
- Dutch carrier KLM to resume Tel Aviv-Amsterdam route
Sept. 29
- Blue Origin’s 2nd New Glenn rocket launch will fly twin NASA Mars probes to space
Sept. 30
- U.S. government funding set to expire, leading to possible shutdown
Oct. 3
- Czech parliamentary election
- Sean “Diddy” Combs’ sentencing hearing
Oct. 4-10
Oct. 4
- Leadership election for Japan’s LDP
Oct. 5
- Cameroon presidential election
Oct. 9
- AG Pam Bondi will testify before U.S. House Judiciary Committee
Oct. 10
- Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 will be announced
Oct. 11-17
Oct. 12
- Portugal elections
- Cameroon presidential election
Oct. 15
- Russia-Arab summit
Oct. 18-24
Oct. 19
- Bolivian presidential election runoff
Oct. 24
- Irish presidential election
Feature Photo: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok
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