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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Officials from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said this week that he is expected to push his cabinet to approve a full re-occupation of the Gaza Strip in the coming days. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Ahmed Namatalla discuss the development as the war enters its 22nd month and as rising humanitarian concerns gain international attention.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Aug. 8-15
A Look Ahead
Aug. 8 – Trump seeks deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine
U.S. President Donald Trump has given Russia until Friday to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine or face new sanctions.
What’s happened so far
Frustrated by Russia’s ongoing attacks on civilians and stalling peace talks, Trump shortened his initial 50-day deadline and ordered two nuclear submarines to be repositioned in the region following remarks by Russian military leader and former President Dmitry Medvedev. Meanwhile, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met Wednesday with President Vladimir Putin, while Trump claimed “great progress was made.”
The impact
Friday’s deadline raises pressure on Russia as peace talks remain stalled and violence continues.Witkoff’s visit aims to revive diplomatic talks, while Trump’s decision to reposition nuclear submarines signals rising tensions and highlights the fragile state of the U.S.-Russia relations. While peace talks have led to multiple prisoner swaps, a ceasefire agreement remains an unlikely outcome at this time.
Aug. 8 – March marking anniversary of West Bengal doctor’s murder
On Friday, junior doctors in India’s Kolkata will join a rally to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the assault and murder of a trainee doctor.
What’s happened so far
In August 2024, the rape and killing of a trainee doctor at Kolkata’s government-run R G Kar Medical College and Hospital sparked nationwide protests by doctors and women’s groups. Furious at the government’s failure to bring down rising violence against women, junior doctors went on a month-long strike demanding greater workplace safety for women and justice for their murdered colleague. A police volunteer was arrested in connection to the trainee doctor’s death while the former principal of the college was charged over alleged graft and Kolkata’s police chief was replaced.
The impact
Despite tougher laws introduced after a notorious gang rape and murder in New Delhi in 2012, India struggles with a high number of rape cases and a low conviction rate. West Bengal Junior Doctor’s Front, the organizer of the upcoming march, has called for further actions from the government and says that only a “democratic environment” at educational facilities could prevent such “threat culture.”
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Aug. 8 – Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler to step down
One of the federal reserve’s seven governors, Adriana Kugler, will leave her position on Friday, opening a key position for the Trump administration to fill in the central bank.
What’s happened so far
Kugler was appointed by the Biden administration in 2023, and served on a board of governors that oversaw the country’s economic “soft-landing” over the COVID-19 economic crisis. Since 2023, the country’s interest rates have been largely flat, after having been hiked significantly in 2022 to slow inflation. Kugler did not give a clear reason for resignation, but stated that she will be returning to academia. For his part, Trump said he believed that Kugler is resigning due to disagreements with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over cutting the central bank’s interest rates.
The impact
The Trump administration will now have the opportunity to fill the seat with someone more ideologically aligned with its aims, potentially someone poised to take Jerome Powell’s chairman position by the end of his tenure in 2026. The American economy has largely stagnated in the first year of the current Trump administration, and Trump has pushed for lower interest rates, going as far as to threaten Powell’s job despite having questionable legal authority to do so. If the effects of the Republican administration’s tariff policies continue to pile up into the fall, a rate hike is possible, especially with a fiscal “dove” on the board of the Federal Reserve.
Aug. 9 – Italy to begin humanitarian aid airdrops into Gaza
The Italian defense minister announced airdrops of humanitarian aid to Gaza will start on Saturday amid the ongoing famine happening in the Gaza Strip as a result of the war with Israel.
What’s happened so far
Italy is the latest country to commit to deliver urgent humanitarian aid such as food and medical supplies via airdrops. While Italy will carry out the operation in coordination with the armed forces of Jordan, Canada announced earlier this week it delivered humanitarian assistance through airdrops using its own aircraft. The United Kingdom also announced plans to work with Jordan to deliver aid into the Gaza Strip and to evacuate children who need critical medical assistance to the U.K.
The impact
With only a handful of food distribution sites operating across Gaza, huge crowds gather when these open, creating chaos, and many have been killed and injured after being shot by Israeli forces while waiting for food. However, aid agencies have warned airdrops are a “grotesque distraction” to the crisis, as they are unable to deliver the volume or quality of aid the enclave needs. Agencies have called for Israel to allow the hundreds of trucks stationed at the borders through the Gaza Strip, as these represent an “easier, more effective, faster, cheaper” way to deliver the urgent aid.
Aug. 12 – Armenia, U.S. to hold joint military drills
Armenia and the United States are set to hold joint military exercises starting Tuesday as Armenia seeks deeper involvement with the West.
What’s happened so far
A tentative peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia was announced in March, putting the end of a decades-long conflict within sight. A memorandum of understanding, outlining the basic principles of a long-term peace deal, is expected to be signed in Washington in the near future, potentially with President Donald Trump’s backing. Russia has been frozen out of this process, with Baku and Yerevan seeking to engage with each other rather than through a preoccupied Moscow, allowing the United States leverage in a part of the world contested by numerous nations. Armenia’s relationship with Russia has deteriorated in recent years, after it came off worse in recent phases of the conflict and saw little help from Moscow. A high–profile U.S.-backed peace deal and the upcoming military exercise may swing it further into Washington’s camp.
The impact
The exercise, known as Eagle Partner 2025, will focus on peacekeeping operations and medical evacuation procedures, according to a statement released by Armenia’s Defense Ministry, but will be closely watched by numerous regional players including Azerbaijan, its backer Turkey, and Russia, which has a military base inside Armenia.
What Else Matters
Israel pushing to occupy Gaza
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting with security officials on Thursday to discuss his proposal to occupy the 25 percent of Gaza Strip not already under military control, a plan he says will force Palestinian militant groups to release Israeli captives held in the territory. Netanyahu is coming under increasing international and domestic pressure to end the near two-year war that has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians and drawn wide-spread accusations against the military of committing genocide.
Watch for: Israel’s government appears to be preparing for another escalation in the war after last month’s ceasefire negotiations involving the United States failed to yield the result promoted by President Donald Trump. It comes after months of threats by members of the US-backed Israeli government to evict Palestinians from Gaza Strip and take their land, while opponents led by families of captives have revived mass anti-war protests in cities including Tel Aviv and Haifa. Meanwhile, Israel is starting to allow some food and medicine to enter the territory after international condemnation of its months-long starvation of Palestinians and killing of hundreds who’ve attempted to reach food-distribution sites run by US contractors, all charges that Israel’s government denies.
Montana manhunt
Police say residents of Granite County, Montana, should maintain their daily routines, but remain vigilant as the search continues for a suspect wanted in connection with the shooting deaths of four people at a bar in the town of Anaconda on the morning of August 1. A reward of up to $10,000 reward is now being offered for information that leads to the arrest of Michael Paul Brown, who remained at large as of Wednesday evening. The 45-year-old military veteran lived in a home next to the bar, with the owner telling the Associated Press, “he knew everybody that was in that bar. I guarantee you that … He didn’t have any running dispute with any of them.” Meanwhile, family members have told local media that Brown had previously been turned away from mental health treatment following his time in the army.
Watch for: Brown was last seen around 2 p.m. Friday driving west of Anaconda, with authorities recovering his vehicle later that day. On Tuesday, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte announced the release of emergency funds to support local law enforcement efforts, which have been hampered by the geography of the area and both its dense forests and mountainous terrain. To that end, the Garrity Mountain Wildlife Management Area remains closed until further notice as the search continues.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 8-15
Aug. 8
- Trump wants deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine
- Federal Reserve governor steps down
- March to commemorate anniversary of West Bengal doctor’s murder
Aug. 9
- Italy to begin humanitarian aid airdrops into Gaza
Aug. 12
- Kenyan central bank rate-setting meeting
- Deadline for China to reach agreement to avoid tariffs
- Armenia and U.S. hold joint drills
Aug. 15
- Taiwan president to visit Paraguay
Aug. 16-22
Aug. 16
- Nigeria by-elections
Aug. 17
- Bolivia presidential election
Aug. 18
- City of Denver layoffs
Aug. 23-29
Aug. 23
- Taiwanese referendum to restart nuclear power plant
- Second recall vote for Taiwanese lawmakers
Aug. 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
Aug. 26
- Latin America Climate Summit in São Paulo
Aug. 29
- Samoa snap election
- US suspends duty-free shipping
Aug. 30-Sept. 5
Sept. 3
- China military parade for WWII anniversary
- Visa free travel starts between Azerbaijan and China
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Top photo: U.S. President Donald Trump, pictured with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018 in Helsinki, has given Russia until Friday to negotiated a peace deal with Ukraine or face new sanctions. (Photo: Kremlin)
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