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U.S. President Donald Trump launched a federal crackdown on crime in Washington, D.C., this week, temporarily seizing control of the city’s police and deploying the National Guard. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss Trump’s claimed rationale and his threat to extend the takeover.
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Week of Aug. 15-22
A Look Ahead
Aug. 15 Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine, with the United States teasing a potential deal format that has left Ukraine and its European partners concerned.
What’s happened so far
This will be Putin’s first trip to the United States since his visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly in 2015, where he received a frosty reception from President Barack Obama in the wake of his 2014 annexation of Crimea. Trump last met Putin at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, in 2019 during his first presidential term but has held frequent calls with Moscow as he tries to notch up another peace deal. Trump, keen to end a war he sees as costly and not in the interests of the United States, said he will be looking to get some of Ukraine’s territory back in the form of a land swap, which would return to a situation similar to the pre-2022 invasion. Russia is likely to only accept a deal that recognizes its territorial gains in the Donbas and also its annexation of Crimea.
The impact
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously ruled out any acceptance of terms that would cede Ukrainian territory to Russia. He may not have much of a choice, facing a complete shutoff of U.S. war material and other types of support if he doesn’t accept a deal. European leaders, shut out from the talks, have voiced continued support for Ukraine, as they hope that Trump’s sudden turn back to Putin reverses in due course.
Aug. 16 Nigeria by-elections
Nigeria’s election commission announced the country will hold its by-elections on Saturday across 16 constituencies in a dozen states.
What’s happened so far
The election, which is set to impact some 3.5 million registered voters, will aim to fill vacant seats at the National Assembly and the state Houses of Assembly that resulted from resignations, deaths and annulments. Despite claims by Nigeria’s Labour Party that it nominated a candidate for the key Edo Central senatorial seat, the election commission confirmed the party was disqualified from running in the by-elections.
The impact
Political parties have mobilized their support for candidates since the beginning of the campaign period on Aug. 2, and these by-elections will be a means to gauge the popularity of their policies. Although voting will take place across a dozen states in the country, the election commission said the elections will not take place in the State Constituencies of Khana II in Rivers State and Talata Mafara South in Zamfara State due to ongoing states of emergencies and pending legal proceedings.
Aug. 17 DR Congo, M23 rebels pledge to reach peace deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 militant group are expected to sign a final peace deal on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The Congolese government and representatives of the Rwanda-backed M23 group are expected to sign a peace agreement in Qatar after inking a declaration of principles last month aimed at ending decades-long hostilities in eastern Congo. The agreement came after officials from DR Congo and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in Washington “based on mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.” Rwanda has long denied backing M23, with an official calling a United Nations report that found Rwandan soldiers aided M23 rebels in attacks that killed hundreds of people last month in the DR Congo’s North Kivu province “unacceptable” and “false.”
The impact
Local media reports indicate ongoing fighting involving M23 rebels and pro-government forces in DR Congo, despite the expected peace deal. Thousands of people have been forced to flee due to fighting involving groups including M23, according to the UN’s refugee agency, with 2.8 million internally displaced people counted last year in North Kivu alone. The executive secretary of M23 noted last month that the root causes of conflict between the group and the government will need to be addressed after the peace agreement is signed, saying state authority will be restored with M23 acting as “a major player.”
Aug. 17 Bolivian presidential elections
Bolivia’s most consequential election in decades is slated for Sunday as the country, long a stronghold for left-wing politics with longtime former President Evo Morales, is roiled by its worst economic downturn in decades.
What’s happened so far
That once-dominant left wing, comprised of mainly the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS-IPSP) party, is now tearing itself apart. Former Morales’ protege and incumbent President Luis Arce failed to garner confidence in his rule while also exorcising Morales from the party, leaving a power vacuum at the head of the country’s most powerful political machine. Morales attempted to engineer a comeback, but was barred from running by Arce-aligned judges and is now urging his followers to cast null votes in protest. This leaves the young pro-Morales Senate leader Andrónico Rodríguez and Eduardo del Castillo, a former government minister whom Arce tabbed as the new MAS-IPSP candidate, as the remaining candidates on the left-wing side. On the opposition side, former President Jorge Quiroga is battling businessman Sanuel Doria Medina for status as the main right-wing candidate, while Rodrigo Paz and Manfred Reyes Villa are positioning themselves as centrists with Reyes focusing on law and order.
The impact
A right-wing victory is on the cards for the first time in recent years and would certainly see drastic shifts in economic and foreign policy — perhaps in the Donald Trump model — though it would be futile to speculate whether or not they would alleviate the persistent inflation, lines for basic services, and high gas prices at the heart of voter disillusionment. Doria Medina in particular has vowed to slash fuel subsidies, something that triggered nationwide protests in 2010 when Morales attempted it. Security-wise, the U.S. Embassy has already warned of the possibility of violent protests, and pro-Morales protests in June led to clashes that killed at least six people, including four police officers.
Aug. 18 U.S.-South Korea joint military drill
South Korea and the United States will stage their major annual wargame over 11 days starting Monday.
What’s happened so far
Ulchi Freedom Shield, one of the two large-scale annual drills held in South Korea, will focus on the response to heightened North Korea nuclear threats, with troops put to test in simulated scenarios of missile launches and attacks involving modern war technology, according to the South Korean military. While the exercises this year will be on a similar scale to 2024, some parts of field training were rescheduled to September due to extreme weather conditions.
The impact
The drills come as Seoul seeks to reduce tensions with its neighbor. South Korea’s new liberal government led by President Lee Jae Myung halted broadcasts of anti-North Korean propaganda in June and began removing loudspeakers along its border last week. While the South Korean military said they have detected North Korean troops dismantling some propaganda loudspeakers, Pyongyang has not directly responded to the matter. North Korea conducted artillery firing drills Tuesday after the defense minister called the upcoming U.S.-South Korea joint exercises “provocative” a day earlier.
Aug. 19 Tasmania no-confidence vote
Australia’s island state of Tasmania will face another no-confidence motion after just two months since the last, when the local parliament returns Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
Tasmania Premier Jeremy Rockliff first failed a no-confidence vote in June and was ousted from office over a series of issues blamed on his Liberal government, including ballooning debt in the state’s budget. An early election took place soon afterward in July, but the Labor opposition failed to win any new seats, leaving neither Liberals nor Labor with enough parliament seats to form a majority government. Rockliff was reappointed as Tasmania’s Premier again last week.
The impact
With the last no-confidence vote and snap election leading to an impasse, this upcoming no-confidence motion, even if it is successful, seems unlikely to trigger another election. Forming a new coalition government, however, will be an uphill battle for the Labor opposition, who need eight more seats.
What Else Matters
Trump sends National Guard to D.C.
Federal troops were deployed on the streets of Washington, D.C., on Monday night, following a state of emergency declaration from President Donald Trump that allowed him to take control of the city’s police force for at least 30 days under the D.C. Home Rule Act of 1973. In a press conference Monday, Mayor Muriel Bowser called the move “unsettling and unprecedented,” but local officials have thus far shown a willingness to work with the administration on addressing crime, with DEA Administrator Terry Cole singling out the city’s police chief as “very accommodating.” While the city’s violent crime and murder rates are higher than most major U.S. cities, those figures have also been on the decline since their 2023 peak.
Watch for: Federal officials reported 23 arrests on the first night of the president’s order, with FBI Director Kash Patel saying “we are just getting started.” While Trump used his constitutional authority to deploy troops to the nation’s capital, he lacks the power to do so in other cities he singled out as grappling with high crime rates, like Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore and Oakland, Calif. It’s unclear what actions he may take, if any, in those places.
Israel kills Palestinian journalist
Anas al-Sharif, whose reporting from the war-torn Gaza Strip over the past two years elevated him to one of the most prominent correspondents in the Middle East, was targeted and killed by Israel this week following months of threats. In all, the Israeli military killed six Palestinian journalists with an airstrike on their tent in northern Gaza Strip on Sunday, alleging ties to militant groups without providing verifiable evidence.
Watch for: The killing comes ahead of an expected major Israeli offensive on Gaza City to force the territory’s 2 million people into a smaller plot of land as humanitarian groups accuse Israel of denying Palestinians of most access to food, water and medicine. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the plan includes installing a new government for the territory. Al-Sharif and his colleagues reported live daily from Gaza on the Qatari pan-Arab news network Al Jazeera, providing consistent news coverage from the warzone. Meanwhile, Israel continues to push forward with a parallel U.S.-sponsored plan to expel Palestinians from the territory and take their land.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 15-22
Aug. 15
- Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska
- Taiwan president to visit Paraguay
Aug. 16
- Nigeria by-elections
Aug. 17
- Bolivia presidential election
- DR Congo, M23 rebels pledge to reach peace deal
Aug. 18
- City of Denver layoffs
- U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise
Aug. 19
Tasmania no-confidence vote
Aug. 23-29
Aug. 23
- Taiwanese referendum to restart nuclear power plant
- Second recall vote for Taiwanese lawmakers
Aug. 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
Aug. 26
- Latin America Climate Summit in São Paulo
Aug. 29
- Samoa snap election
- US suspends duty-free shipping
Aug. 30-Sept. 5
Sept. 3
- China military parade for WWII anniversary
- Visa free travel starts between Azerbaijan and China
Sept. 6-12
Sept. 8
- Norway parliamentary elections
Sept. 9
- UN General Assembly opens in New York City
Top photo: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, pictured above in 2018, will meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss the war in Ukraine. (Photo: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
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