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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Devastating cloudbursts in northwest Pakistan have killed more than 360 people in the past week and left many injured and others missing. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Awais Ahmad discuss the flooding that’s been wreaking havoc since June and the growing resentment around the government’s response.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Aug. 22-29
A Look Ahead
Aug. 22 Ruling on former Thai prime minister’s royal defamation case
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will hear a verdict from Thailand’s highest court on a lèse-majesté case against him Friday, the first ruling in a series of upcoming legal challenges against him and his daughter, current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
What’s happened so far
Thaksin faces royal defamation charges over an interview he gave to a South Korean media outlet in 2015, a case that could lead to a jail sentence ranging from three to 15 years. This is only one of several consequential rulings in Thailand scheduled for the next few months, with the Constitutional Court due to rule on whether to remove Paetongtarn from office over a controversial phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, and Thaksin facing another ruling over whether his past prison sentence was properly carried out.
The impact
Thaksin currently holds no official government role, but remains a key figure in Thai politics with his influence over the ruling Pheu Thai Party and his daughter, the current prime minister. These upcoming court rulings could potentially reshape the leadership of the country.
Aug. 22 Fed Chair Powell to speak
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to share an economic outlook on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Moran, Wyo.
What’s happened so far
The speech comes as Powell faces pressure from President Donald Trump to cut borrowing costs and after weeks of mixed economic data raised questions about what the Fed might do. A weak jobs report last month fueled expectations of a rate cut, though a subsequent report showing a jump in wholesale prices complicated that picture. Last month, Powell described the economy as solid and said the Fed was “well positioned to wait for further clarity” before making any policy changes. For months, Powell has indicated that he’s needed more time to see the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on inflation.
The impact
Investors will be watching for signs of shifts in monetary policy amid speculation that Powell could cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent next month, with at least one more cut expected before the year’s end. Before its next scheduled meeting September 16, the Fed will also get August employment and inflation numbers that are expected to heavily influence its decision. If the Fed decides to cut rates, it could boost both the job market and the economy, though such a move also risks feeding inflation as uncertainty around the impact of tariffs continues.
Aug. 23 Taiwan referendum on restarting nuclear power plants
Taiwan’s last nuclear power plant, the Maanshan plant, shut down in May, bringing an end to four decades of nuclear generation on the island — a fact that could soon change, as opponents of the government’s scheme that shuttered the plant have successfully called for a referendum on Saturday to restart the generating station.
What’s happened so far
Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has had an anti-nuclear power stance since its founding in late 1986, rooted in a distrust of the Taipower monopoly, cost overruns for nuclear projects, and safety concerns following the Chernobyl explosion. Thus, when President Tsai Ing-wen was elected in 2016, she made closing all the country’s nuclear plants – three, at the time – one of her key campaign policies, vowing to replace the lost generation capacity with renewables during that time. Taiwan has seen regular anti-nuclear energy protests that have sometimes grown disruptive, including in 2024, when police used water cannons to disperse demonstrators in Taipei.
The impact
For the referendum to pass, more than 25 percent of the electorate must vote in favor, and that number must outnumber the votes against. If the referendum passes, the government has promised to begin inspections and evaluations of the plant to restart operations. Proponents of the referendum argue that increasing generation capacity is crucial to Taiwan’s independence, both in terms of decreasing resource dependence and strengthening the high-tech economy. They simultaneously have panned the rollout of renewables in the country and said the shutdown contributed to Taipower’s unprofitability. Opponents say nuclear power is an unsafe option in such a seismically-active region and that there is no viable plan to dispose of waste.
Aug. 24 South Korean leader visits White House
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump as part of a three-day summit in Washington, D.C., starting Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The meeting comes just weeks after Korean officials reached a trade deal with the Trump administration, agreeing to invest $350 billion in U.S. projects selected by Trump, and purchase $100 billion in energy products in exchange for a 15 percent tariff on imports, down from a threatened 25 percent. Meanwhile, the two countries are currently taking part in the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises, despite warnings from North Korea that the effort would deepen regional tensions.
The impact
A presidential spokesperson for Lee said the two sides will discuss their alliance “in response to the changing international security and economic environment,” with specific focuses on peace and denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, and economic cooperation in the semiconductor, battery and shipbuilding sectors. Defense spending is also likely to be a key topic of conversation, with the United States reportedly seeking an increase by South Korea to 3.8 percent of GDP from 2.6 percent, and a boost to its contribution to cover the costs of basing American troops in the country.
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Aug. 24 Israeli High Court petition for captives in Gaza
Israel’s High Court has ordered the government to detail by Sunday its plans regarding the remaining hostages held in Gaza.
What’s happened so far
The High Court of Justice in Israel has ordered the coalition government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to respond to a petition put forward by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum to detail exactly how it takes executive decision regarding the nearly two dozen remaining captives still believed to be alive. The court ruling comes as Israel faces criticism over its plans to further invade Gaza by launching an offensive into the densely populated Gaza City.
The impact
In addition to holding mass protests across Israel, families of the remaining hostages have urged Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire deal approved by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. This would allow for an initial 60-day ceasefire and include the release of at least a dozen Israeli live captives in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Despite Israel assuring the families of the captives that it is reviewing the truce deal, the military has called up some 60,000 reservists and intensified their attacks on Gaza City, signaling a potential move towards further conflict rather than a halt to arms.
Aug. 25 India, Bangladesh border guards chiefs’ conference
High-level officials from India’s Border Security Forces and Bangladesh’s Border Security Guards will meet in Dhaka for a four-day conference starting Monday.
What’s happened so far
India and Bangladesh share one of the longest land borders in the world. Against the backdrop of historical territory disputes and an increased influx of Rohingya refugees since 2017, topics such as border clashes, a so-called “push-in” of undocumented migrants by Indian forces into Bangladesh, and drug and ammunition smuggling are expected to take the main stage in the upcoming meeting.
The impact
Following July 2024’s mass uprising in Bangladesh, the relation between Dhaka and New Delhi has strained significantly, mainly due to India’s decision to shelter the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. While both countries have expressed their desire to resolve the issues through dialogue, the two neighbors have yet to propose concrete measures regarding the many border disputes. Analysts and international media will be keeping an eye on potential agreements or cooperation that could emerge from the conference.
Aug. 26 Latin America Climate Summit in Sao Paulo
Carbon pricing professionals will gather in Brazil’s Sao Paulo on Tuesday for a regional climate summit ahead of a key UN climate gathering scheduled for November.
What’s happened so far
The event in Sao Paulo, organized by the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) and the International Carbon Action Partnership will host those working in carbon markets and will focus on areas such as carbon pricing, an issue at the forefront of tackling climate change on an industrial level. A second regional summit will be held in North America after this as part of IETA’s regional series that aims to build momentum in the run up to the UN conference.
The impact
Brazil is set to host this year’s United Nations climate conference, known as COP30, in the city of Belem. Leaders from around the world, as well as industry figures, will gather at November’s summit to discuss climate change and progress made toward meeting goals. Brazil has issued a last minute plea for countries to submit more ambitious plans to deal with climate change as the summit nears.
Aug. 29 Trump suspends duty-free exemption for all foreign packages
Beginning Friday, all international purchases shipped to the United States will be subject to duties and taxes after Trump revoked the $800 de minimis exemption in an escalation of his administration’s trade war.
What’s happened so far
Since 2016, all foreign shipments valued under $800 have been exempt from taxation, allowing low-cost Chinese retailers like Shein and Temu to thrive. Between 2020 and 2024, the number of exempted parcels entering the United States jumped from 636 million, to over 1.3 billion. The new tariffs will likely impact low-income consumers the hardest, as data shows that 48 percent of Chinese de minimis packages are shipped to poor zip codes in the United States. The de minimis exemption was already rescinded specifically for goods from China and Hong Kong in May, prompting Chinese ecommerce companies to route their packages through Vietnam and restructure supply chains within the United States.
The impact
Moving forward, all packages entering the United States will be required to display their country of origin, and goods will be taxed at that nation’s specific tariff rate. The impacts will be felt especially hard for Canadian ecommerce firms, who rely on the United States for a majority of business and who will face a 35 percent tariff. The new tariffs will also contribute to rising inflation in the United States and abroad, after July’s data showed a significant spike.
What Else Matters
Deadly Pakistan floods
Nearly 400 people were killed and dozens others remain missing after devastating cloudbursts struck the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in northwest Pakistan last Friday, triggering deadly flash floods and landslides. Entire villages were obliterated as swollen rivers and collapsing infrastructure buried communities under rubble, with more than 200 people dying in the district of Buner in just two days. The recent bout follows weeks of relentless monsoon rains that have already claimed more than 700 lives since late June and destroyed thousands of homes across the country. The disaster is not confined to the northwest, with intense flooding bringing Pakistan’s most populous city Karachi to a standstill, killing at least eight people, causing widespread power outages, and leaving many stranded on the streets. The monsoon season typically runs through mid-September with authorities warning of continued intense rainfall until at least Sept. 10.
Watch for: Cloudbursts are intense, sudden downpours that drop more than 3.9 inches of rain within an hour, often caused by warm moist air currents rising rapidly in mountainous areas. They are highly unpredictable, leading to ineffective early warning systems. Rivers in the mountainous areas remain dangerously swollen, with the landslide risk still high. Forecasts of continued, relentless rains have made managing evacuations and providing aid all the more difficult for emergency response teams. Floodwaters also raise the threat of water-borne diseases and dengue fever, leading to a surge in hospitalizations and deaths. Factors like a weak disaster preparedness and response plan, poor urban planning and inadequate infrastructure have led to extensive loss of life and billions in damages year after year with 2022 seeing some of the most destructive flooding in the country in recent years.
Russia-Ukraine talks
U.S. and European leaders are waiting on confirmation of a date and a location for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The meeting is intended to be the next step in efforts led by Washington to advance peace talks between the two countries after both leaders met with President Donald Trump in the United States over the last week. Both Putin’s meeting with Trump in Alaska and Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington in the company of European leaders failed to yield substantive results, but did signal changes in the U.S. president’s approach to peace talks. Trump has said NATO membership for Ukraine is not on the table and has dismissed the idea of a security guarantee that would involve American troops on the ground in Ukraine. He is also no longer demanding an immediate ceasefire, instead calling for a comprehensive peace deal, and appears to have abandoned any plans of sanctioning Russia.
Watch for: On the ground, Moscow has shown no signs of relenting in its daily, deadly strikes across Ukraine and its grinding advances in the Donetsk region. It remains to be seen whether the Kremlin’s seeming openness to peace dialogue is genuine or a ploy to draw out negotiations and further sow discord among Ukraine’s allies. The Kremlin has thus far been highly critical of Europe’s role in peace talks, calling them a clumsy attempt at changing Trump’s stance. Trump has made it clear he wants to see Zelenskyy and Putin hold bilateral, in-person talks, something that the former has long called for. At present, Russia and Ukraine are a long way from reconciling their positions regarding peace talks, but an in-person meeting – should it happen – may go some way to advancing negotiations.
Hurricane Erin
North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein declared a state of emergency on Tuesday ahead of the expected impact of Hurricane Erin along the state’s Outer Banks, with mandatory evacuation orders in effect for Ocracoke and Hatteras islands. While the storm — the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season — was not forecast to make landfall in the United States, storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions were expected to begin late Wednesday as it moved north-northeast through the Atlantic.
Watch for: Road crews worked Tuesday to shore up the dunes protecting Highway 12, the roadway that connects the Outer Banks, but transportation officials warned both residents and vacationers that they could be left stranded for several days if portions of the two-lane stretch are washed out. Meanwhile, strong winds are possible later in the week along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic, southern New England and Atlantic Canada as the system continues on its forecast track.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 22-29
Aug. 22
- Thai criminal court to rule on former PM Thaksin’s royal defamation case
- U.S. Fed Chair Powell to speak at Jackson Hole symposium
Aug. 23
- Taiwanese referendum to restart nuclear power plant
- Second recall vote for Taiwanese lawmakers
Aug. 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
- Korean President Lee Jae Myung visits U.S.
- Israel’s High Court orders Netanyahu government to detail how it makes decisions regarding captives and ending the war
- SpaceX aims to launch Starship Flight 10 test flight
Aug. 25
- India, Bangladesh border guards chiefs’ conference
Aug. 26
- Latin America Climate Summit in São Paulo
Aug. 29
- Samoa snap election
- U.S. suspends duty-free shipping
Aug. 30-Sept. 5
Aug. 31
- India’s Modi to visit China for first time in 7 years
Sept. 3
- China military parade for WWII anniversary
- Visa free travel starts between Azerbaijan and China
Sept. 6-12
Sept. 6
- Nepal-China joint military drill to kick off
Sept. 8
- Norway parliamentary elections
Sept. 9
- UN General Assembly opens in New York City
Sept. 13-19
Sept. 15
- Syria parliamentary elections
Sept. 16
- Malawi general election
Sept. 17
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
Top photo: Protesters block Kaplan Interchange in Tel Aviv, calling for an end to the war and the return of Israeli captives in Gaza. (Photo: Oren Rozen / Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 4.0)
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