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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of Aug. 29-Sept. 5
A Look Ahead
Aug. 26 Modi heads to China and Japan
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin his visit to Japan and China on Friday, marking his first trip to China in seven years and a diplomatic push to balance deepening ties with China amid growing U.S. pressure.
What’s happened so far
Modi will begin in Tokyo for the 15th India-Japan Summit with Japanese counterpart Shigeru Ishiba, focusing on critical minerals, defense technology and a $68 billion Japanese investment plan. He will then head to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit, marking his first visit to China since the 2020 border clashes that froze high-level diplomatic ties. He is scheduled to share the stage with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The impact
The trip reflects India’s strategy to stabilize ties with China without compromising its Quad commitments or regional ambitions. Modi’s presence alongside Xi and Putin signals India’s intent to stay central in a shifting geopolitical order, as it seeks to enhance collaboration with China and mend a souring relationship with the United States amid a tense tariff war.
Aug. 26 Samoa snap election
Samoans will vote in a snap election on Friday after Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa’s government collapsed over a failed budget vote in May.
What’s happened so far
The vote comes six months earlier than planned amid struggles within Fiamē’s administration and internal divisions within the Faʻatuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST) party. Back in January, the prime minister dismissed party chairman La’auli Leuatea Schmidt over criminal charges. La’auli in turn removed her and five Cabinet ministers from the organization after collecting 20 signatures from party members, forcing Fiamē into a minority government. The South Pacific island nation’s first woman prime minister faced two no-confidence votes in the aftermath.
The impact
The main players disputing the election are the ruling FAST, now led by businessman Laaulialemalietoa Leuatea Polataivao Schmidt, the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which governed the island for 40 years before Fiamē’s 2021 victory, and outgoing Prime Minister Fiamē’s new political project, the Sāmoa Uniting Party (SUP). The next prime minister will face mounting challenges due to climate change and its impact on key industries like tourism, as well as Samoa’s dependence on development aid. Samoa has drawn international interest in recent years as a potential strategic partner for powers competing for regional influence, including China, Australia and the United States.
Aug. 31 Deadline for Iran to agree to nuclear deal
The deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement with western powers is approaching on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The Aug. 31 deadline concerns the so-called “snapback mechanism,” under which wide-ranging UN sanctions, imposed prior to the 2015 nuclear deal, would be reintroduced due to Iran’s non-compliance with the agreement’s non-proliferation stipulations. France, Britain and Germany, as three of the original signatories of the Iran nuclear deal, are leading the negotiations aiming to persuade Iran to re-enter talks with the United States to avoid the reimposition of the strict sanctions regime that preceded the nuclear talks during the Obama administration.
The impact
While the landmark nuclear agreement significantly constrained Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to terminate the deal in 2018 triggered a cascade of events, ultimately leading to Iran possessing a significant quantity of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, well outside of the deal’s provisions. Talks between the United States and Iran have been suspended since Israel and the U.S. launched strikes targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure in June. Snapback sanctions provisions expire in mid-October, and the U.S. and European signatories hope to leverage their position over Iran before this deadline, given the difficulties in convincing China and Russia to support further sanctions.
Sept. 1 Canada lifts tariffs on U.S. goods
Canada on Monday will drop many retaliatory import tariffs on U.S. goods amid the ongoing trade war.
What’s happened so far
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the change last week, saying that despite U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, lumber, energy and more, over 85 percent of trade between the two countries is tariff-free due to the free trade agreement between the two countries and their southern neighbor, Mexico. Carney said Canada “currently has the best trade deal with the United States” of any country in the world. The prime minister also noted that tariffs on American steel, aluminum and automobiles will remain in place for now.
The impact
Carney’s announcement sparked criticism from some who accused the prime minister of capitulating to the United States. However, it earned praise from U.S. President Donald Trump, who later told reporters “We want to be very good to Canada.” For months, Canada and the U.S. have been engaged in talks to establish a new economic and security relationship, though the two sides are still far from a deal. Canadians are expected to see lower prices once tariffs on U.S. products are removed, though it remains unclear how long it will take for prices to come down.
Sept. 1 Deadline for Afghan refugees to leave Pakistan
Pakistan has already begun to deport thousands of registered Afghan war refugees living in the country, but officials claim that the process will officially start after Monday’s official deadline.
What’s happened so far
An estimated 3 million Afghan nationals are residing in Pakistan, with roughly 2.2 million having sought official documentation in the form of a UN Proof of Registration or the Pakistani government-issued Afghan Citizen Card. Since 2021, when the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan’s central government, as many as 800,000 people have crossed the border. The intensity of the country’s civil war has significantly decreased since the Taliban’s return to power, and Pakistan first announced plans to begin mass deportations in 2024. Although official order was delayed until this summer, over 60,000 people crossed the border to return to Afghanistan in April alone.
The impact
The decision from Islamabad comes as Iran is also attempting to expel their population of 2 million undocumented Afghans. Police in both countries are reportedly conducting raids, carrying out evictions and knocking doors to discover undocumented Afghans. Many fear a return to an Afghanistan under Islamic fundamentalist Taliban rule, particularly those in ethnic minorities. The influx of millions into one of Asia’s poorest countries could prove destabilizing, and the United Nations High Council for Refugees has condemned the actions of both Tehran and Islamabad.
Sept. 3 Jamaican general election
A total of 63 seats in Jamaica’s House of Representatives will be up for grabs on Wednesday during the country’s general election.
What’s happened so far
The ruling center-right Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) currently holds 49 seats in the parliament following landslide victory in 2020’s general election, while the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) claims the remaining 14 seats. The lawmakers elected in the upcoming election will go on to serve a five-year parliamentary term. The incumbent prime minister, JLP’s Andrew Holness, highlighted the reductions in public debt and the country’s economic growth during his administration, as well as promising greater investment in public infrastructure as his party campaigns for a second term in office. On the other hand, the opposition PNP party has championed greater economic and social inclusion programs in housing, healthcare and education. By-elections in four local government divisions in the Kingston and St. Andrew Municipal Corporation will also be held on Sept. 3.
The impact
With the lowest voter turnout in decades recorded in 2020’s general election, though many attributed to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, some analysts have pointed to turnout as the key factor that could impact on the result of the election, as well as the direction Jamaican politics would take over the next five years.
Sept. 3 China military parade for WWII anniversary
On Wednesday, Beijing will stage its “victory day” parade, one of the largest in recent years, to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan’s formal surrender in World War II.
What’s happened so far
Amid China’s growing military power and deepening division with Western countries, Beijing has been intensifying efforts to promote the “correct view” of World War II. Propaganda campaigns highlighting China and Soviet Russia’s role in fighting fascist forces have surged in the days leading up to the commemoration. According to state media, the main military parade will take place at the Tiananmen Square, with Chinese President Xi Jinping overlooking marching formations and showcasing of new weapons such as fighter jets, bombers and other high-tech armaments.
The impact
While Russian President Putin and top Southeast Asian leaders are among the expected guests in the upcoming commemoration, a report by Japan’s Kyodo News stated that Tokyo has asked European and Asian counties to refrain from attending events with “anti-Japanese” undertones. Beijing has tightened security ahead of the events, setting up barricades and security checkpoints and imposing stricter control on mail and deliveries.
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What Else Matters
Serbian protests
The wave of protests fueled by public anger at perceived widespread corruption in Serbia has resurged in recent weeks, with violent clashes erupting in multiple cities. On Aug. 12, violence broke out in the northern cities of Vrbas and Backa Palanka, sparking accusations of police brutality and triggering further demonstrations. Protesters also targeted President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbia Progressive Party headquarters in Valjevo on Aug. 16, setting fire to the premises. The demonstrations have become nearly a daily occurrence in Serbia over the past nine months, following the deaths of 16 people when a railway station canopy collapsed in the city of Novi Sad. Demonstrators blamed the tragedy on widespread government corruption.
Watch for: The organizers of the student-led movement have continued to reject Vucic’s calls for dialogue, instead demanding early elections in the hope of ousting him and his party from power. The government has taken steps to placate the protest movement, such as Prime Minister Miloš Vucevic stepping down in January, but these have proven insufficient to quell the demonstrations. Last week Vucic pledged “decisive action” against protesters, accusing them of attempting to destroy the state. The demonstrations are likely to continue, with a high risk of violent escalation if Serbian police continue to pursue heavy-handed tactics. While Vucic is unlikely to declare snap elections, with his mandate running until 2027, he may resort to measures like declaring a state of emergency in the event of further escalation.
Gaza hospital attack
On the afternoon of Aug. 25, an Israeli drone launched an initial strike on the rooftop of a building at Nasser Hospital, Gaza’s only functioning hospital, in the southern city of Khan Yunis. Minutes later, as journalists and rescue workers went up the stairs to reach the affected area, a second strike hit the group. At least 21 people were killed in the so-called “double-tap” attack, including medical workers and five journalists working for Al Jazeera, Associated Press, Reuters and other news organizations.
Watch for: International human rights organizations and various countries have expressed “outrage” at the targeted attacks on Nasser Hospital, with some accusing Israel of committing war crimes by continuing to target medical centers and media workers. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the incident a “tragic mishap” and ordered an immediate investigation into the deaths. Meanwhile, famine in Gaza has reached catastrophic levels, and ceasefire talks appear to have reached a stalemate.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 29-Sept. 5
Aug. 29
- Samoa snap election
- U.S. suspends duty-free shipping
- India’s Modi begins Japan and China trip
Aug. 31
- Lebanon to come up with plan to convince Hezbollah to disarm
Sept. 1
- Deadline for Afghan refugees to leave Pakistan
- Canada lifts tariffs on U.S. goods
Sept. 2
- Airbus U.K. workers to strike for 10 days over pay
Sept. 3
- China military parade for WWII anniversary
- Jamaican general election
- Paraguay bus drivers strike
Sept. 5
- Tube strike planned in U.K.
Sept. 6-12
Sept. 6
- Nepal-China joint military drill to kick off
Sept. 7
- Israel’s Netanyahu visits Argentina
- MTV Video Music Awards
Sept. 8
- Norway parliamentary elections
- French confidence vote
Sept. 9
- UN General Assembly opens in New York City
- Asia Cup begins
- Apple Event
Sept. 10
- Nigerian court to rule on bail for deadly church attack suspects
Sept. 13-19
Sept. 15
- Syria parliamentary elections
Sept. 16
- Malawi general election
Sept. 17
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
Sept. 20-26
Sept. 21
- Guinea’s Junta hold referendum on Constitution
Sept. 23
- Uganda presidential election nominations
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Top photo: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pictured above in 2018 in Wuhan, is set to travel to China for the first time in seven years. (Photo: Government of India)
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