Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least 22 people have been killed in Angola in recent days during protests sparked by a rise in fuel prices. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss the response by security forces and how taxi drivers are linked to the situation. Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of August 1 – 8
A Look Ahead
Aug. 1 – Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect
The United States is set to impose a set of tariffs on numerous trading partners unless deals are reached by Friday to prevent them, potentially leading to disruption in global supply chains, market instability and consumer unease.
What’s happened so far
President Donald Trump announced in April that a deadline would be set for early August for agreements to prevent heavy tariffs being imposed on trading partners. He stressed there would be no exemptions or deadlines, seeking to pushback against jibes from market traders that he always chickens out. Talks with the European Union, United Kingdom and Japan have led to agreements with decreased exposure to tariffs. Talks between the United States and China are continuing with hopes of an extension that could see off potential tariffs and market shocks in favor of further negotiations.
The impact
Any triggering of tariffs could lead to market instability and a flurry of diplomatic activity to attempt to reverse them. This could be exacerbated by potential disquiet from domestic U.S. consumers expected to foot the bill through price rises. The IMF, which upgraded global growth forecasts, said these sunnier projections could be risked by new tariffs.
Aug. 2 – Parts of EU AI Act due to come into force
The European Commission is pressing ahead with the implementation of parts of the European Union’s artificial intelligence regulation beginning Saturday despite calls by companies to delay it.
What’s happened so far
The act, proposed in 2021, approved by the European parliament and council in late 2023 and formally introduced last year, will apply from Saturday for AI models that could have a significant impact on public health, safety or human rights, and foundation models such as those made by Google. The Commission said the rules aim at addressing potential risks to society, while providing companies clear requirements and obligations when using AI.
The impact
Companies will have until Aug. 2, 2026 to comply with the legislation. In the meantime, they will have to carry out model evaluations, assess potential risks and report any serious incidents to the Commission. Earlier this month, 46 leaders from some of the largest companies in Europe called for a pause in the implementation of the act, arguing that “unclear, overlapping and increasingly complex EU regulations” were impacting their abilities to do business in the continent. In response, the Commission released guidelines to help AI models comply with the regulation. However, Meta said it won’t sign the code of practice, accusing Europe of “heading down the wrong path on AI.”
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Aug. 5 – Bangladesh’s first Student-People Uprising Day
On Tuesday, Bangladesh will celebrate its first public holiday in commemoration of the mass protests that saw the collapse of the Awami League regime in 2024.
What’s happened so far
July marks a year since the mass uprising which led to the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s regime. Student protests sparked by the reinstatement of government jobs quotas quickly turned into a mass anti-government uprising as the regime’s ruthless crackdown widened public grievances. Hasina resigned and fled the country to India in August after protesters stormed her residence and other buildings associated with her family. According to the interim government, more than 1,000 people were killed in the protests.
The impact
The interim government led by the Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus has been facing growing pressure as public discontent mounts and political division deepens over competing demands for political reforms and a swift general election. While Yunus signalled an election could be held the week before Ramadan, in mid-February 2026, it is unclear if this will go through. The latest violence broke out on July 16, when a rally commemorating the one-year anniversary of the uprising in Gopalganj was allegedly attacked by Awami League supporters. Security is expected to be strengthened around the country and in the capital Dhaka ahead of Tuesday.
Aug. 5 – DHS ends protections for Cameroon and Nepal
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Cameroon and Nepal on Tuesday, citing improved conditions that no longer meet the legal criteria for the designation.
What’s happened so far
Cameroon was granted TPS in 2022 amid violence from multiple armed conflicts such as those involving extremist groups in the Far North Region, including Boko Haram, and clashes between English-speaking separatists and the French-speaking government in the Northwest and Southwest regions. Meanwhile, Nepal received its TPS in the aftermath of the devastating 2015 earthquake that left as many as 9,000 people dead and destroyed or damaged more than 600,000 structures in the Kathmandu area alone.
The impact
According to the DHS, conflicts in Cameroon are now largely regional and no longer pose enough of a nationwide threat to justify the TPS, while improved disaster response, preparedness and infrastructure no longer qualifies Nepal for the designation. Since the status does not lead to permanent residency, Cameroonian and Nepalese nationals will be required to seek other legal immigration options or risk becoming documented and subject to deportation.
Aug. 5 – Two-year anniversary of Imran Khan imprisonment
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party will commemorate on Tuesday the two-year anniversary of the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
What’s happened so far
Khan was sentenced to 14 years in jail with charges of corruption following his arrest in August 2023. Since then, the party and members of the opposition have called for his release, accusing the government of conducting a “politically motivated unfair trial.” Several previous protests have turned violent, with severe government crackdown on protesters that have at times forced the capital Islamabad to a standstill.
The impact
His party, Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf, has called for internal unity ahead of the planned nationwide protests to mark two years since the leader was arrested, with several members of his family, potentially including Khan’s two UK-based sons, set to attend. These demonstrations will mark the first nationwide rallies since the Pakistani government announced the formation of a new national paramilitary force, whose duties include “internal security, riot control and counter-terrorism,” with rights groups arguing it could be used as a means to repress the political opposition.
Aug. 6 – Bolivia independence day
Bolivians will celebrate the country’s bicentennial on Wednesday at a time of extreme political upheaval and a presidential election just days afterward.
What’s happened so far
In its nearly 200 years as a country, Bolivia has seen dozens of presidents but few as popular as Evo Morales. The country’s first indigenous president held office from 2006 until 2019 as a member of the socialist party. In his resignation announcement, he said he was forced out by a coup and fled the country for several months until current President Luis Arce was inaugurated. Following Morales’ return, he had a well-publicized falling out with Arce and was issued an arrest warrant for allegedly trafficking a 15-year-old girl. He was also banned from running for president in the upcoming election, which will have its first round of voting on Aug. 17.
The impact
Morales’ disqualification led to protests around the country from the indigenous community that forms the base of his support. His followers have demonstrated on his behalf, including blockading multiple roads. An official planning the festivities leading up to Wednesday has said those actions have been disruptive and led to a downturn in tourism.
What Else Matters
Russia earthquake
A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky in Russia’s far east in the early hours of Wednesday, marking one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded. The initial quake triggered tsunami advisories not only in Russia but across large parts of the Pacific, including Japan, Alaska and Hawaii. Minor tsunami waves were recorded in Japan, Hawaii and the U.S. West Coast and authorities have since downgraded most warnings and lifted evacuation orders from coastal areas. No serious injuries have been reported.
Watch for: Authorities warn that the risk from the large earthquake has the potential to last for hours, with advisories still in place in some areas due to the potential for strong aftershocks. Chile, for example, upgraded its tsunami warning to its highest level for most of its Pacific coast hours after the initial earthquake struck. Effects are expected to impact as far away as New Zealand, with the weather service warning residents of strong currents and surges.
Angola taxi drivers unrest
At least 22 people have died and more than 1,214 have been arrested in recent unrest in Angola’s capital Luanda connected to a taxi strike and fuel price increases. The price of both diesel and petrol rose roughly 33 percent in the beginning of July — a significant burden for residents in one of Africa’s most expensive cities. Paired with the persistent issue of police harassing drivers, the raise sparked the country’s ANATA taxi union to declare a strike beginning July 28, effectively shutting down the city on Monday. Government authorized marches quickly devolved across Luanda as drivers and disgruntled civilians blocked roads, set fires and looted stores. Additional security forces have been seen in Luanda, while protests have also spread to the city of Huambo.
Watch for: The government of President Joao Laurenço has shown no signs of backing down from the fuel price hike. Following Monday’s rioting, national ANATA officials announced a suspension of the strike, a decision that local chapters, including the Luanda branch, have ignored. While the fuel price increase sparked the unrest, young Angolans harbor resentment for the MPLA regime that has ruled since 1975 over high-level corruption. For his part, Laurenço has attempted to prosecute corruption since his election in 2017, including going after the country’s richest person Isabel dos Santos. More negotiations between ANATA and the government are expected in the coming days, and it remains to be seen if citizens will continue the protests beyond the strike’s scheduled end Wednesday.
Learn more about the Angola taxi drivers unrest in the Factal Forecast podcast.
Flooding in northeastern China
Continuous, heavy rain battered northeastern China over the past week, leaving at least 30 people dead in the outskirts of Beijing and tens of thousands of residents displaced. Surrounding provinces were also impacted, with Hebei and Shanxi reporting several deadly incidents related to the rains. Search and rescue operations are ongoing.
Watch for: Skies over Beijing have cleared up for the time being, but more rain is forecast this upcoming weekend, which could hamper relief efforts. Further south, storm Co-may is bringing prolonged heavy rains and strong winds to Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, with flash flood warnings issued for northwest Zhejiang and southeast Anhui in particular.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 1 – 8
Aug. 1
- Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect
Aug. 2
- Parts of EU’s AI Act due to come into force
Aug. 3
- U.S. ends extended deportation protections for Haitians
Aug. 5
- Bangladesh’s first Student-People Uprising Day holiday
- PTI to commemorate two-year anniversary of imprisonment of Imran Khan
- DHS ends protections for Cameroon and Nepal
Aug. 6
- Poland president-elect inaugurate
Aug. 7
- 2025 World Games starts in Chengdu, China
Aug. 9 – 15
Aug. 9
- March to commemorate anniversary of West Bengal doctor’s murder
Aug. 12
- Kenyan central bank rate-setting meeting
- Deadline for China to reach agreement to avoid tariffs
Aug. 15
- Taiwan president to visit Paraguay
Aug. 16 – 22
Aug. 16
- Nigeria by-elections
Aug. 17
- Bolivia presidential election
Aug. 18
- City of Denver layoffs
Aug. 23 – 29
Aug. 23
- Taiwanese referendum to restart nuclear power plant
- Second recall vote for Taiwanese lawmakers
Aug. 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
Aug. 26
- Latin America Climate Summit in São Paulo
Aug. 29
- Samoa snap election
- US suspends duty-free shipping
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Top photo: Protesters supporting former Bolivian President Evo Morales marched in La Paz on Sept. 23, 2024 (Photo: @EVOespueblo577 on YouTube / Wiki Commons)
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