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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
More than 100 people are dead and over 150 missing after devastating flash floods tore through Texas’s Hill Country region. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the recovery efforts as well as questions over whether the tragedy could have been prevented and what can be done to lessen the impact of future floods.
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Week of July 11-18
A Look Ahead
July 11 – Kurdish PKK dissolution
The militant group Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which seeks greater political autonomy and cultural recognition for Kurdish people in the Turkey-Syria border region, will finally and symbolically dissolve itself at a ceremony in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq, on Friday, ending their 40-year insurgency against the Turkish government.
What’s happened so far
The dissolution comes after protracted negotiations between Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s regime and PKK’s leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who has been imprisoned for over 20 years. At the conclusion of the talks, Ocalan said policies denying the existence of Kurds and restrictions on freedom of expression had ended, emphasized the importance of democratic society,” and called for the PKK to dissolve. The PKK congress voted to do so in early May, echoing Ocalan’s call for democratic engagement and calling their decades of activity a “successful struggle.”
The impact
Lasting change is no guarantee. Although the dissolution of the PKK is the largest step yet taken, peace processes in 2004 and 2015 both collapsed with the resumption of hostilities. Statements from both sides make only vague references to adherence to democratic principles. Erdogan – whose regime has presided over democratic backsliding – claiming that the peace process will accelerate as the PKK gradually hands over their weapons. Furthermore, Kurdish units who fought against Turkey are being integrated into the new Syrian military after the Assad regime’s fall, and will retain their weapons, bases and power structure in the Turkish border region.
July 11 – West African leaders visit Washington, D.C.
On Friday, the presidents of the West African nations of Senegal, Liberia, Mauritania, Guinea-Bissau and Gabon will conclude a three-day meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss “commercial opportunities.”
What’s happened so far
Trump invited leaders from the five Atlantic Coast states on relative short notice to convene for a three-day summit alongside Senior Africa adviser Massad Boulos. The meeting follows the U.S.-brokered peace agreement between Rwanda and DR Congo signed in June which outlined specific provisions for new U.S. mining investments in the eastern DR Congo, signaling the Trump administration’s transactional approach to Africa. It is unclear why the five African countries were chosen specifically, while larger nations like Ghana and Nigeria were excluded. Nevertheless, Trump is expected to discuss a general move away from foreign aid payments and toward private business investment for the West African states.
The impact
Trump is expected to discuss uranium and manganese mining rights with Gabon President Brice Oligui Nguema. Additionally, Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will field questions about the nearly 20,000 Senegalese nationals who have crossed into the United States from Mexico in the past year. Liberian leaders will likely look to negotiate the terms of the United States’ decision to end USAID funding for the country. Trump’s agenda with Guinea-Bissau and Mauritania is less clear. Trump could wield the possibility of suspending all visa access for citizens of these countries in order to extract economic benefits from the African leaders.
July 12 – Australian prime minister visits China
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will travel to China on Saturday for an official visit at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
What’s happened so far
Albanese confirmed the trip for the annual leader’s meeting, his second as prime minister, during which he will meet Li, President Xi Jinping and Chairman Zhao Leji. Albanese will visit Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu. The Australian prime minister’s office said the leaders will discuss global and regional issues and bilateral cooperation on trade and tourism. Chinese officials said the visit comes as the strategic partnership between both countries enters its second decade and is an opportunity to “enhance mutual trust and expand practical cooperation.”
The impact
A CEO roundtable for Australian and Chinese business leaders will take place during Albanese’s visit. A 14-person business delegation including representatives from the banking, resources, tertiary education and food industries will accompany the prime minister. Is it expected that China will push for the opening of the free trade agreement between both countries to build partnerships on AI, healthcare, green energy and the digital economy.
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July 13 – 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in New Jersey
The FIFA Club World Cup 2025 will draw to a close on Sunday as London’s Chelsea faces off against Paris Saint-Germain in the tournament’s final at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.
What’s happened so far
The month-long tournament, which kicked off June 14 and featured 32 teams from every continent, has been anything but predictable. Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hilal shocked Manchester City in the Round of 16, while Brazil’s Fluminense made an impressive run before falling to Chelsea in the semis. Now, Chelsea heads into the final as one of the favorites to take home the trophy — and collect the tournament’s record $40 million top prize.
The impact
Sunday’s match is expected to draw more than 50,000 fans to MetLife Stadium. Security has been tight throughout the tournament, and it’s only expected to ramp up with the final — especially after President Donald Trump confirmed he’s attending. The presence of ICE and DHS agents earlier in the tournament drew backlash from immigrant fans, but officials claim that level of federal coordination is standard for events of this scale.
July 14 – U.S. terminates protected status for Afghans
Starting at 11:59 p.m. ET on Monday, the Department of Homeland Security is ending deportation protections for Afghans in the United States.
What’s happened so far
Homeland Security Sec. Kristi Noem in May announced the termination of “temporary protected status” for Afghanistan, saying in a statement that a review had determined that “Afghanistan has had an improved security situation, and its stabilizing economy no longer prevent [Afghans] from returning to their home country.” Afghans were granted temporary protected status in 2022 under then-President Joe Biden after the last U.S. troops left the country in 2021 and the Taliban returned to power.
The impact
The end of deportation protections comes as Afghanistan remains under a Level 4 travel advisory from the U.S. State Department due to “civil unrest, crime, terrorism, risk of wrongful detention, kidnapping, and limited health facilities.” The situation in Afghanistan prompted the U.N. General Assembly to adopt a resolution last Monday, over objections from Israel and the United States, calling for “a renewed push for human rights, peace and stability.” Among other things, the group pointed to the country’s “overstretched humanitarian system” and “extrajudicial punishments” carried out by the Taliban. As of September, there were more than 9,000 Afghans in the United States who had temporary protected status.
July 15 – Trump attends AI and energy summit in Pennsylvania
President Donald Trump will be in Pittsburgh on Wednesday as his administration continues to focus on the future of artificial intelligence and its energy needs.
What’s happened so far
Pennsylvania Sen. Dave McCormick campaigned in 2024 on making the state a natural gas powerhouse through fracking. Now a powerful member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, he put together the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit, which pitches the battleground state as a future home for AI ventures. Others already see it that way, especially after Amazon announced a $20 billion investment to build two data centers in the state.
The impact
Several tech and energy bigwigs are on the guest list, including Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman from OpenAI, and the CEOs of ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron. One of the focuses of the summit will be the growing energy demands of AI to train algorithms and process huge amounts of data. However, some companies are already sounding the alarm — a Mid-Atlantic grid operator said it’s already seeing less capacity because of AI and its requirements.
What Else Matters
Texas flooding
More than 160 people are missing in Kerr County, Texas, as of Tuesday afternoon, according to Gov. Greg Abbott, following catastrophic flooding in the Hill Country region over the weekend that left at least 109 others dead. The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet over the course of just 45 minutes in the early morning of July 4, as remnant moisture from the former Tropical Storm Barry dropped months worth of rainfall in the span of hours. That, coupled with the rocky soil and steep terrain that have given the region the moniker “Flash Flood Alley,” combined to cause the historic devastation.
Watch for: Questions have mounted about the use of emergency notifications in Kerr County, with first responders allegedly asking for alerts to be sent in the early morning hours of Saturday. Some residents reportedly received flood warnings within an hour, while others took significantly longer. Meanwhile, conspiracy theories that claim a “weather weapon” was deployed to cause the flooding have circulated in far-right circles, leading to attacks on radar infrastructure and death threats.
Gaza ceasefire watch
The United States, Qatar and Egypt are continuing to mediate a ceasefire deal in the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip after almost two years of war that left the Palestinian territory in ruins. The potential agreement calls for Palestinian militant groups to release some Israeli captives and for Israel to stop bombing for 60 days, during which a permanent end to the war can be negotiated. Israel quit a similar deal mediated by the Biden administration after the release of its citizens, refusing to enter talks on ending its invasion and even backing a proposal by U.S. President Donald Trump to expel the Palestinians.
Watch for: There’s “a very good chance” that “a settlement, an agreement of some kind” will be reached this week or next, Trump said on Wednesday. The talks are taking place against the backdrop of a catastrophic humanitarian scene in Gaza compounded by Israel’s prevention of most food and medicine from entering the territory. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi militant group has resumed attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea for the first time since December, claiming support for Palestinians. There’s still no indication whether any of the main sticking points have a path to be resolved, such as demands by Palestinian militant group Hamas for guarantees that Israel will permanently end its attack, fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip, allow full flow of humanitarian aid and start of reconstruction. On the other hand, Israel’s government is demanding destruction of Hamas and all Palestinian militant groups, returning its captives and maintaining control of at least part of Gaza.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 11-18
July 13
- 2025 FIFA Club World Cup final in East Rutherford, N.J.
July 15
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taichung
July 16
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Tainan
July 17
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Taipei
July 19-25
July 20
- Japan upper house election
July 21
- Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
July 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
July 25
- Former U.S. Congressman George Santos to report to prison
July 26-Aug. 1
July 26
- Recall vote for 24 opposition lawmakers in Taiwan
July 27
- 2025 Tour de France final stage
- Supreme Court’s 30-day pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends
July 30
- Last court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin over hospital stay in lieu of prison
July 31
- Lollapalooza in Chicago’s Grant Park begins
Aug. 2-8
Aug. 3
- U.S. ends extended deportation protections for Haitians
Aug. 5
- Bangladesh’s first Student-People Uprising Day holiday
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Top photo: Members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish militant group, are seen marching in August 2015. (Photo: Kurdishstruggle / Flickr)
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