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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Representatives for Moscow and Kyiv met Wednesday for the latest round of peace talks since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began more than 40 months ago. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Alex Moore discuss possible outcomes of the talks, how the expanding use of drones is impacting the war and how recent protests in Ukraine have come into play.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of July 25 – August 1
A Look Ahead
July 25 – Strikes at Portuguese airports
Workers at aviation ground handling company Menzies will host a series of strikes across Portugal’s airports throughout the summer, with the first ones taking place Friday.
What’s happened so far
The staff’s union said earlier this month they will strike on the last weekend of July and the last four weekends of August, with the first strike going from midnight on Friday to midnight on Monday. The workers demand better pay, the payment of night shifts and access to airport’s parking lots.
The impact
While the union said workers will ensure the minimum services “for the safety and maintenance of equipment and facilities,” the action is still expected to cause disruption at the popular European destination during one of the busiest periods of the year. It also comes as airports in Portugal continue to face problems with overcrowding and lack of staff, with regular reports of long waits at security. The government is planning to build a second airport near the capital Lisbon to reduce congestion, but the plans have faced repeated setbacks.
July 25 – Former congressman George Santos reports to prison
Former U.S. Republican congressman George Santos is expected to report to prison Friday to serve a more than seven-year sentence for federal wire fraud and identity theft.
What’s happened so far
Santos, who was convicted on federal wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges after pleading guilty last summer, admitted and apologized for breaching constituents’ trust. Santos was elected to Congress to represent New York’s 3rd district during the 2022 Midterm elections and served less than a year in office before being ousted from Congress in a vote following his fraud conviction. In April of this year, he was sentenced by a court in New York to serve 87 months in prison.
The impact
The former Republican congressman will serve out his sentence in prison beginning Friday, but has appealed to President Donald Trump for clemency, calling his jailing ”an over the top politically influenced sentence.”
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July 26 – Taiwan’s parliamentary recall votes
On Saturday, more than one-fifth of Taiwanese lawmakers will face the largest recall election in the country’s history.
What’s happened so far
While Lai Ching-te won the presidency last year, his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) currently holds only 51 seats out of the 113 in the legislature, leaving the opposition with the majority. Mass protests and civil campaigns calling to remove the opposition lawmakers emerged after the main opposition party, Kuomintang (KMT), and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), pushed through a series of controversial parliamentary reform bills, followed by major budget cuts across multiple government ministries. The recalls have been framed as an effort to “oppose Communist China,” with civic groups accusing the opposition of intentionally paralyzing the government under the influence of Beijing. The KMT, despite regularly sending its lawmakers to visit China, denies being pro-China and said it is only exercising its right to supervise the government. A total of 24 KMT lawmakers and a TPP mayor will face the recall Saturday, with ballots over seven others scheduled for Aug. 23.
The impact
Whether the recalls will succeed are seen as crucial to Taiwan’s domestic politics, as it will determine if the DPP could win back the majority in the legislature. While the KMT can stand again and may well win back its seats in the by-elections, if enough opposition lawmakers lose their seats, the DPP will have the majority in the parliament, even just for a short while, in the period after the recalls and before the by-election.
July 27 – 2025 Tour de France final stage
The 21st and final stage of the Tour de France will take place Sunday.
What’s happened so far
The flat 82.1 miles between Mantes-La-Ville and Paris Champs-Élysées will mark the end of this year’s race. The 112th edition of the French cycling competition started in Lille on July 5 and it is the first in five years to be held exclusively in its home country. After three weeks competing, cyclists will have completed a total of 2,074 miles, including six mountain stages. Slovenian 2024 defending champion Tadej Pogacar and Dane Jonas Vingegaard are the main two favorites for the win this year.
The impact
Aside from a few isolated incidents with minimum impact to the race, the competition has taken place undisrupted so far. Paris’ police prefecture has issued a decree temporarily imposing parking and traffic restrictions for the capital’s 7th, 8th, 9th, 15th and 18th arrondissements, some of which will remain in force until July 28. Enhanced security measures will include a ban on unauthorized gatherings near the race, increased presence of security forces and deployment of road barriers along key areas such as Montmartre and the Champs-Elysées Avenue, among others.
July 27 – SCOTUS pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends
A pause on a U.S. Supreme Court ruling limiting nationwide injunctions in connection to President Donald Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Trump issued an executive order shortly after taking office to deny citizenship to those born on U.S. soil after Feb. 19 to parents who were not in the country legally. The order sparked multiple legal challenges, with federal judges blocking it with a nationwide injunction in three separate cases. The Trump administration turned to the Supreme Court for relief. In a 6-3 ruling handed down last month, the nation’s highest court halted the injunctions, finding that they likely exceeded the powers given to federal courts. The court paused implementation of its ruling until Sunday.
The impact
The Supreme Court directed lower courts to determine whether more specified injunctions would be appropriate in connection with the cases challenging Trump’s order. Earlier this month, a federal judge in New Hampshire certified a nationwide class “comprised only of those deprived of citizenship” and issued a new, class-wide preliminary injunction blocking the order, prompting criticism from the White House. The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments over Trump’s executive order again in the future. In its June ruling, the court did not address arguments over whether the order violates the Constitution’s 14th Amendment.
July 28 – Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
Philippine leader Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will address the country on Monday amid political drama with the Duterte family.
What’s happened so far
Marcos, known as Bongbong, was elected in 2022 with Sara Duterte, the daughter of then-President Rodrigo Duterte, as his running mate. Despite unity during the election, a feud between the families led to Sara Duterte telling reporters she had hired a person to kill Marcos and his family in the event of her assassination. She was impeached in February. The next month, her father was arrested on an International Criminal Court warrant for crimes against humanity, dating back to his war on drugs in which prosecutors estimate tens of thousands of people were killed with little to no proof of being linked to drugs. Despite that, he still won his race for mayor of Davao City, showing his popularity in the region.
The impact
With Sara Duterte’s trial in the Senate set to start later this month, she faces the prospect of being removed from her job and banned from holding public office. Marcos, in the meantime, has the opportunity to set the stage ahead of the Duterte family’s upcoming trials. It also comes as monsoon storms have led to severe flooding throughout the country. Marcos has told federal workers to stop working on the address and put full attention on the flooding.
July 30 – Court hearing for former Thai PM over hospital stay
Thailand’s Supreme Court will hold its final scheduled hearing on Wednesday for a case over former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s past prison sentence that could send him back to jail.
What’s happened so far
After returning to Thailand from 17 years of post-coup, self-imposed exile in 2023, Thaksin was promptly handed a prison sentence over corruption charges. Controversy arose when Thaksin was transferred to a hospital during his first night in prison, where he spent just six months before being released on parole, sparking criticism that he dodged his full jail sentence. Thaksin also faces a lese majeste charge, with a verdict expected on Aug. 22.
The impact
If the final hearing concludes without issue, a verdict on Thaksin’s contested prison sentence could come in August. Thaksin’s troubles come at a fraught time for the family, with his daughter and currently-suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra facing possible removal from office over a fraying relationship with Cambodia. Conservative, pro-royalist groups that once opposed Thaksin and his sister Yingluck during their respective reigns as prime minister are now rallying against Paetongtarn.
July 31 – NOAA discontinues weather forecasting data satellite program
The U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will stop ingesting data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) no later than Thursday, potentially impacting forecasting capabilities during the country’s hurricane season.
What’s happened so far
NOAA fired roughly 15 percent of its work force in the winter as Trump administration bureaucracy-slashing policies came into effect. While some meteorologists have been rehired for critical positions, the decision to slash the DMSP program came June 25. Defense department officials cited a significant “cybersecurity risk” for the cut, and claimed the program will be supplemented by more modern data collection methods. The cut-off was delayed from June 30 to July 31 at the request of high-level NASA officials, but is set to go ahead as a permanent change.
The impact
Former Biden-era NOAA officials have warned that a lack of DMSP data will significantly impact the quality of forecasting at a pivotal time of the year for natural disasters. Democrats see the discontinuation of DMSP as an intentional effort to hamstring NOAA, which oversees the National Weather Service, to make way for privatization of the forecasting industry. For their part, sitting NOAA officials have reassured the public that new satellites, including one launched by the Space Force in April, will fill the gap. Roughly 600 out of 4,200 NWS employees were let go in the beginning of the Trump administration, and questions remain about if a fully-staffed NWS could have coordinated with local authorities for an earlier response to July’s deadly flooding in Texas Hill Country.
What Else Matters
| A new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine is underway in Istanbul. (Photo: TASS) |
Russia-Ukraine renewed talks in Istanbul
A new round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations is underway in Istanbul, Turkey, a week after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a 50-day deadline to Russia to reach a peace deal or face sanctions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially announced the negotiations, saying the Ukrainian delegation would prioritize the return of prisoners of war and children deported from territories occupied by Russia as well as laying the groundwork for a high-level meeting between leaders. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said “miraculous breakthroughs” are not to be expected during talks and reiterated Russia remains focused on achieving its stated goals in its war on Ukraine. This is the third round of talks in Istanbul and so far there has been no movement toward any sort of ceasefire agreement. Previous rounds, however, did lead to further prisoner exchanges and repatriation of bodies.
Watch for: Trump appears to have taken a more hostile stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, pledging more weapons for Ukraine and issuing Russia with the 50-day ultimatum. Ukraine has also increased pressure on Russia, using attacks to disrupt operations at Russian airports and stations, impacting thousands of people. Meanwhile, the Russian government has reiterated its maximalist goals in Ukraine and is working through legislation to allow for year-round military conscription — it currently takes place twice a year, in spring and fall. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Russia is mobilizing political, societal and economic sectors to prepare for future large-scale war, with plans to spend $1.1 trillion on rearmament by 2036. This week Moscow also moved to curtail internet freedoms, introducing fines for searching content deemed extremist by the authorities. Russia has sought to shrug off increasing international pressure and will likely continue to attend talks to outwardly appear open to a peaceful resolution, while continuing preparations for a drawn-out war.
Typhoon Wipha
Typhoon Wipha, first originated as a tropical depression east of the Philippines, has since brought heavy downpours and strong winds to the Philippines, southern China, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan. Known as “Crising” in the Philippines, Wipha passed through Philippines’ northern Cagayan on July 17, prompting evacuation of thousands as widespread flooding hit the region. Wipha then moved northwestward toward southern China, grounding hundreds of flights and leaving dozens injured in Hong Kong, before making landfall in China’s Guangdong on Monday. On Tuesday morning, Wipha hit Vietnam’s northern provinces of Nin Binh and Thanh Hoa, with maximum sustained winds of near 64 mph, before weakening and moving inland towards Laos. Overflowing of rivers and landslides have isolated thousands of families in Vietnam’s northern and central regions.
Watch for: While Wipha has now dissipated into a low pressure area, its remnants are still looming over Southeast Asia, along with the effects of monsoon, bringing extremely heavy rains to the region. Flash floods submerged large portions of Thailand’s northern Nan region, with authorities urging residents to evacuate from swelling waterways Wednesday. With such wide-spread damage so early into the typhoon season, and more tropical storms already emerging, countries in the region are on high-alert as they brace for more extreme weather in the coming months.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 25-Aug. 1
July 25
- Former U.S. Congressman George Santos to report to prison
- Strikes at Portuguese airports
July 26
- Recall vote for 24 opposition lawmakers in Taiwan
July 27
- 2025 Tour de France final stage
- Supreme Court’s 30-day pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends
July 28
- Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
July 30
- Last court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin over hospital stay in lieu of prison
July 31
- Lollapalooza in Chicago’s Grant Park begins
- NOAA discontinues weather forecasting data satellite program
Aug. 1
- Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect
Aug. 2-8
Aug. 2
- Parts of EU’s AI Act due to come into force
Aug. 3
- U.S. ends extended deportation protections for Haitians
Aug. 5
- Bangladesh’s first Student-People Uprising Day holiday
- PTI to commemorate two-year anniversary of imprisonment of Imran Khan
Aug. 9-15
Aug. 15
- Taiwan president to visit Paraguay
Aug. 16-22
Aug. 16
- Nigeria by-elections
Aug. 17
- Bolivia presidential election
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