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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
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The U.S. military began deploying about 700 Marines and thousands of National Guard members to the Los Angeles area this week as protests against the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration continued to heat up. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the violence that’s taken place and the pushback on the government.
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Week of June 13-20
A Look Ahead
June 13 – Court hearing on former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s prison term
Thailand’s Supreme Court is scheduled to open an inquiry Friday over concerns that a prison sentence for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was not adequately enforced.
What’s happened so far
Thaksin served as Thailand’s prime minister from 2001 to 2006, when he was deposed in a military coup. After spending more than a decade abroad in self-imposed exile, he returned in 2023. Upon his arrival, the Supreme Court handed Thaksin an eight-year prison sentence over three corruption convictions, which the Thai king commuted to one year. Complaints arose over Thaksin’s quick transfer from prison to a police hospital, where he spent six months before being released on parole last year — he did not spend a night in jail due to reported health problems.
The impact
If the Supreme Court finds Thaksin’s claimed health issues did not warrant a six-month hospital stay, it will likely order his return to prison to serve a complete year. The top court can also order possible punishments for authorities responsible for enforcing the sentence, according to Thai scholars. The hearing comes amid two other political flashpoints this week starring Thaksin, including a meeting between Thailand and Cambodia over border tensions that is fueled by controversy over his close ties with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
June 14 – Military parade in Washington, D.C.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump will oversee a parade celebrating the anniversary of the United States Army’s founding in 1775 despite concerns of costs, politicization and safety.
What’s happened so far
Trump has yearned for a military parade for years, dating back to when he was in Paris on Bastille Day in 2017. He called it “one of the greatest parades” he had ever seen and told French President Emmanuel Macron he wanted to “try to top it.” Plans for a parade during his first term were shelved after the Pentagon called it too political. Trump said the cancellation was due to the $92 million price tag. This time, he will get his wish with thousands of troops and more than a hundred vehicles, including tanks, parading through the streets of Washington, D.C. The Army has estimated this iteration, which comes on Trump’s 79th birthday, will cost between $25 million and $45 million.
The impact
As protests over his immigration policies rage in parts of the country, Trump warned that any demonstrators at the parade will be met with “very heavy force.” To prepare, the city is installing 18 miles of fencing and shutting down an extensive number of roads. Officials say they’re tracking “about nine First Amendment activity demonstrations” but have no significant concerns. Air traffic will be halted at Reagan National Airport for several hours.
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June 15 – Iran nuclear talks
A sixth round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is coming up later this week in Muscat, with President Donald Trump claiming the talks will take place Thursday and Iranian officials pointing to Sunday, as hopes for a deal dwindle.
What’s happened so far
Tensions spiked on Wednesday as it became evident that the U.S. and Iran were heading towards a potential stalemate in the upcoming round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. The situation was further flamed by the surfacing of unconfirmed Israeli plans to target Iran. The State Department said it plans to evacuate non-essential staff from Iraq, and the Pentagon allowed for voluntary departures of families of military personnel from the Middle East. Details of any progress made between the U.S. and Iran since April remain unclear. The talks seek to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting some of the crippling U.S. sanctions, with enrichment being key in the negotiations. Iran has repeatedly stated that it will not accept a complete freeze of uranium enrichment and maintains that its nuclear program is exclusively for civilian purposes.
The impact
Trump insists that Tehran should fully dismantle its nuclear program and previously threatened that “there will be bombing” if a deal is not reached. Officials from both sides have said that previous talks have been “constructive but not conclusive.” While some reports said that Tehran is drafting a negative response to the U.S. proposal, talking to a state-run media, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said that they will suggest a framework agreement as the basis for future negotiations. However, with both sides less confident that a deal can be reached, the region is bracing for impact. The UK maritime agency issued an advisory for vessels to exercise caution in critical waterways in the Middle East. The Iranian defense minister threatened that his country would target US military bases in the region if Iran comes under attack first.
June 15 – France’s Macron to visit Greenland
French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Greenland on Sunday in a trip aimed at showing support to the Danish territory following continuous threats by U.S. President Donald Trump.
What’s happened so far
Since Trump came into power, the U.S. administration has continued to indicate its desire to annex the semi-autonomous territory under the auspices of Denmark, including by force if needed. Several European countries and the European Commission have come out in defense of Greenland, with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot saying at the time the EU would not tolerate U.S. military intervention.
The impact
After the controversial visit of U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and recent visit by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Macron’s trip is being seen as a counter to Trump’s threats, with the French presidency saying it hopes it will contribute to fostering “European sovereignty.” During the visit, where he will meet both Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the leaders will discuss security in the North Atlantic and the Arctic, climate change and energy transition. Frederiksen has called his visit “yet another concrete testament to European unity.”
June 15 – Israel’s Shin Bet chief to resign
Israeli Security Agency Director Ronen Bar will resign on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Bar announced his resignation as chief of Shin Bet, Israel’s main internal security agency, citing his personal responsibility for Israel’s failure to thwart the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. The resignation comes after he was fired in March by the cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, marking the first time in Israeli history that a Shin Bet leader was fired by a government.
The impact
Bar’s resignation follows an Israeli High Court ruling that Netanyahu’s dismissal of the Shin Bet leader was illegal due to a conflict of interest stemming from the agency’s investigation into the Qatar connection affair. Two top Netanyahu aides have been arrested so far as part of the investigation into Qatari influence peddling with Likud. Bar’s decision to resign helped stave off a constitutional crisis, as the Netanyahu government canceled its decision to fire Bar which in turn will negate a High Court ruling into whether Bar’s firing was for personal and political reasons, though Netanyahu has been warned by the court not to interfere in the selection of the next Shin Bet chief.
June 15 – G7 summit in Alberta
Canada will host the annual Group 7 (G7) meeting in Kananaskis, starting Sunday, bringing together world leaders from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.
What’s happened so far
Canadian officials have said the meeting will aim at reaching “agreements and co-ordinated action” on peace and security, digital transition and future partnerships. Rising tensions with Russia and China are expected to be addressed. In a surprise move, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced this week he had invited Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to the summit, just months after Canadian police accused the Indian government of acts of murder, extortion and coercion.
The impact
European leaders will use this meeting to try to put pressure on Russia by lowering the G7 ceiling price for Russian oil. Meanwhile, security has been tightened in Calgary, where most delegates will arrive. Three designated protest zones have been set up, as activists are expected to gather in the city. While organizers said they will avoid provoking police, they have shown concerns about police violence.
What Else Matters
Anti-ICE protests following Los Angeles raids
Hundreds of protesters have been arrested in Los Angeles since the start of demonstrations against immigration enforcement operations last week, while President Donald Trump has deployed more than 4,000 California National Guard soldiers and 700 Marines, claiming the city “would be burning to the ground” otherwise. While the initial standoffs between police and protesters following raids on Friday were mostly uneventful, the situation escalated over the weekend with multiple vehicles burned and reports of looting and other vandalism in parts of the city’s downtown.
Watch for: While a curfew enacted Tuesday appeared to limit unrest overnight in downtown Los Angeles, protests have spread to other cities, with arrests Tuesday night during demonstrations in Atlanta and Denver. A hearing is scheduled for Thursday on a request from California Gov. Gavin Newsom for a temporary restraining order seeking to block the deployment of National Guard troops, while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told a house subcommittee that the their mission would last “at least” 60 days, at a cost of more than $130 million. With nationwide “No Kings” protests planned for Saturday, ICE will reportedly deploy tactical units to five areas: Northern Virginia, Chicago, New York, Philadelphia and Seattle.
Israel stops Freedom Flotilla from breaking Gaza blockade
Israel detained 12 humanitarian volunteers from the British-flagged Madleen ship early on Monday, also taking the symbolic aid vessel into custody and preventing the team from reaching the Gaza Strip. Climate activist Greta Thunberg and three other participants were later deported, and at least eight volunteers remain in Israeli custody, ostensibly for refusing to sign papers documenting deportation. Israeli officials threatened a military response to the Freedom Flotilla Coalition volunteers as they approached the blockaded coast after setting off from Italy on June 1. The volunteers intended the journey and the expected interception to highlight Israel’s role in creating famine in the war-torn Gaza Strip and to challenge Israel’s nearly-two decade blockade on the enclave.
Watch for: At a time when Israel is coming under limited but visible international pressure to curtail its military siege on Palestinians, missions such as the Freedom Flotilla are aimed at other governments to support anti-war action. Soon after the Madleen was intercepted, the so-called Samud Convoy, also known as the Global March to Gaza, set off from Tunisia. Some 1,000 people from around the world departed aim to reach the Egyptian border with southern Gaza, which is also blockaded. This convoy is unlikely to succeed in accessing or possibly reaching the Palestinian territory as it faces permit complications. Its participants are also travelling through a stretch of the region still grappling with unrest – Libya – to reach the Egyptian border where the government has not said if the convoy will be allowed to enter.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
June 13-20
June 13
- Court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin’s prison term
June 14
- Military parade in Washington, D,C.
June 15
- Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar to resign
- Iran nuclear talks
- French president visits Greenland
- G7 summit in Alberta, Canada
June 16
- Court case of jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu
- Bangladesh investigators ordered to bring former PM Hasina before special tribunal
June 18
- First hearing on Lee Jae-myung’s South Korea election violation case
June 19
- Deadline for bids to buy Pakistan International Airlines
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Chaiyi
- Current suspension of Air India flights to Tel Aviv ends
June 21-27
June 22
- Tokyo metropolitan assembly election
June 23
- India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted
June 24
- NYC primary elections
- Pakistan’s airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft to be lifted
- NTSB to hold hearing to determine cause of 2024 Boeing 737 MAX 9 mid-air emergency
June 28-July 4
June 29
- NYC Pride parade
June 30
- Myanmar junta extends temporary ceasefire
July 1
- French authorities announce plans to ban cigarette smoking in various public places
July 5-11
July 9
- Taiwan holds Han Kuang military drill
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Top photo: On Saturday, President Donald Trump will oversee a military parade celebrating the anniversary of the U.S. Army’s founding in 1775. (Photo: White House)
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