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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year with between 13 and 19 named storms expected. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss how this compares to last year’s deadly season and what we can expect in terms of disaster relief when the next big storm hits.
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Week of May 30-June 6
A Look Ahead
June 1 – Mexican federal judicial elections
For the first time on Sunday, Mexican voters will elect 881 federal judges, representing a major democratic reform and a victory for the Morena party government.
What’s happened so far
Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador first proposed a constitutional amendment to make over 1,600 federal judiciary positions democratically elected in February 2024. The amendment did not pass until AMLO’s lame duck period, after Morena party successor President Claudia Sheinbaum had won a decisive mandate and total control of the legislature. The Morena reforms were met with significant protests, including from a crowd that stormed the senate building in Mexico City on Sept. 10. AMLO and Sheinbaum claim that the reform will allow voters to remove corrupt justices and defeat drug cartels, while opponents see it as a Morena powergrab to gain control of a more conservative judicial branch that frequently blocks their reforms.
The impact
Mexico is becoming only the second country in the world to elect their entire federal judiciary, joining Bolivia, whose history of open and fair elections is rocky. This round of elections will appoint all nine members of the country’s Supreme Court, but more than 800 other positions will not be elected until another round of voting in 2027. Only three of the former 11 Supreme Court justices are running, with all of them being prior Morena-aligned officials. In practice, the elections will likely continue the process of consolidating power in an extremely popular Morena government. Sheinbaum boasted an 80-percent approval rating in February, and voters are expected to choose justices sympathetic to her left wing reforms.
June 1 – Poland election runoff
The second and final round of Poland’s presidential election will be held on Sunday.
What’s happened so far
Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski narrowly secured a plurality of the vote in the race’s first round with just over 31 percent of the vote with historian Karol Nawrocki a close second place finisher with almost 30 percent. Though Trzaskowski won the first round vote, he performed much worse than pre-election polls indicated and the success of the far-right in the first round marks an ominous sign, with the third and fourth place finishers respectively securing a combined 21 percent.
The impact
The race marks a major moment for Poland and the European Union, with the Polish presidency remaining in the hands of Andrzej Duda and the nationalist euroskeptic Law and Justice Party (PiS), in office since 2015, despite the party’s defeat to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition in a momentous 2023 parliamentary vote. A victory for Trzaskowski would prove significant for Poland’s efforts to undo the democratic backsliding that occurred during the late-2010s when PiS dominated the political system, which triggered now-lifted EU sanctions. Despite the efforts of Tusk’s coalition, Duda has acted as a bulwark against significant changes such as addressing judicial independence, reproductive health access and the impartiality of public broadcasting.
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June 1 – Atlantic hurricane season begins
Sunday marks the start of the traditional hurricane season in the Atlantic, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasting above-normal activity this summer.
What’s happened so far
The 2024 season was the third-costliest on record, causing an estimated $133 billion in damage. Of the 18 named storms, Helene caused some of the most significant devastation in late September, with more than 100 deaths across western North Carolina caused by historic flash flooding and a toll surpassing 250 in the southeastern United States. That system was followed shortly thereafter by Milton, a category 5 storm that made landfall on the west coast of Florida, killing at least 42 people.
The impact
NOAA says there’s a 60-percent chance of an above-average season and a 30-percent chance of a near-normal season, with a range of 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. While no named storms are forecast for the start of June, conditions may be more favorable for development toward the second half of the month. When a storm does hit, it’s unclear just how quick the federal government may respond with FEMA in the crosshairs of the Trump administration’s budget cuts.
Read more about what Factal editors are watching for during Atlantic hurricane season.
June 3 – South Korea presidential election
South Koreans will vote Tuesday in the country’s ninth presidential election since democratization, which is being held early in the aftermath of a coup attempt.
What’s happened so far
The poll, originally scheduled for 2027, is being held more than two years early following the impeachment of conservative former President Yoon Suk Yeol in the wake of his failed late night attempt to seize power last year. Though there’s a field of candidates, it’s really a contest between two parties. Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is the clear front-runner, having been comfortably ahead in opinion polls throughout the campaign. Former Labor Minister Kim Moon Soo will represent the People Power Party, whose standing was dented by the failed coup. He has regained ground in recent days ahead of a cutoff of opinion polling before the vote. Whoever wins the most votes in Tuesday’s vote becomes president and assumes office immediately after certification.
The impact
South Korea’s new president will serve a five-year term and cannot run for reelection due to constitutional term limits. Following the dramatic December coup attempt, drawn-out aftermath and bruising impeachment saga, there is a low bar for any leader to simply serve out the full length of their term without ending up kicked from office. A win by Kim Moon Soo would be a stunning comeback for his party and could usher in another spell of divided politics. A victory by front-runner Lee Jae-myung would consolidate the Democratic Party’s grip on power, giving it a free hand until legislative elections in 2028.
June 4 – Anniversary of China’s Tiananmen Square massacre
Wednesday marks the 36th anniversary of the deadly 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown in Beijing.
What’s happened so far
In 1989, Chinese students gathered in Tiananmen Square to mark the death of pro-reform politician Hu Yaobang in a demonstration that grew into a massive protest against corruption and inflation and a call for broader reforms. In May 1989, martial law was declared in Beijing. Weeks later, from June 3-4, tens of thousands of troops and police officers ended the protest in Tiananmen Square by force. The death toll from the crackdown remains unknown, with estimates varying from hundreds to thousands.
The impact
The Tiananmen Square massacre remains a taboo subject in mainland China, where pro-democracy activists still face persecution in the country. Until 2020, Hong Kong was the only territory in China where people were allowed to gather to remember and mourn those killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre. This year, Hong Kong’s Victoria Park – the traditional site where people gathered to remember the 1989 crackdown – will hold a food carnival for the third consecutive year. In the absence of commemorations in China, vigils have been organized in several other countries.
June 5 – Burundi legislative election
Burundi will hold legislative as well as local elections on Thursday.
What’s happened so far
Burundians have a series of elections on their agenda, from the legislative and district vote this week, to senatorial elections in July, followed by village elections in August. Last year, the Electoral Commission banned a number of candidates from running in this week’s vote, including some key opposition leaders.
The impact
This is the first time Burundi will hold legislative elections separately from presidential ones, after a constitutional change extended the presidential term from five to seven years in a bid to streamline the electoral process. Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch has warned that cases of enforced disappearance and arbitrary arrest remain of concern ahead of the vote, as the country faces shortages of fuel, water, and electricity outages.
What Else Matters
Coronavirus vaccine no longer recommended for some
U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday announced the removal of the coronavirus vaccine from the CDC’s recommended immunizations “for healthy children and healthy pregnant women.” He did not cite scientific evidence for the change, saying there was a lack of clinical data. The removal goes against many public health experts, including the president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, who said infection “during pregnancy can be catastrophic.” However, there is precedent to stop recommending coronavirus immunizations for children. The World Health Organization, Australia and the United Kingdom don’t recommend yearly coronavirus booster shots for kids.
Watch for: This announcement may even affect people who want to get coronavirus vaccines. Health insurance companies can decide not to cover the cost of a vaccine if it’s not recommended by a CDC committee and director. Without insurance, Moderna and Pfizer are charging up to $150 per dose for its coronavirus vaccine. That could have a trickledown effect, making fewer vaccines available due to lower demand.
Aid operations in Gaza
Israel is facing growing calls to further ease its blockade of the Gaza Strip following recent incidents in which aid distribution sites were overrun. Efforts to distribute aid, following some relaxation in the blockade, are now being coordinated by the newly formed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an NGO backed by Israel and the United States. It has been promoted as a new central hub for aid distribution to replace all other organizations within the Gaza Strip, but its lack of practical experience was demonstrated earlier this week after desperate crowds overran a poorly-organized distribution site operating in Rafah. Dozens of people were injured, and according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry one person was killed. The UN and other aid agencies raised concerns about consolidating operations under one opaque Israeli-backed entity, warning it may hinder equal distribution. A second incident caused by the deliberate withholding of aid by Israel was recorded a day later when Palestinians, desperate from a lack of supplies, stormed a UN food warehouse, causing further injuries.
Watch for: International pressure is mounting on Israel to allow aid organizations into the Gaza Strip and further ease its blockade that has been in place since an outbreak of violence in March. The World Health Organization warned that the risk of famine is rising, with some 2.1 million residents of Gaza facing prolonged food shortages, and half a million people in acute danger of illness and starvation.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
May 30-June 6
May 31
- UEFA Champions League final in Munich
June 1
- Mexico’s federal judicial elections
June 2
- Telegram blocked in Vietnam
June 3
- South Korea presidential election
- Philippine Senate to convene for impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte
June 5
- Burundi legislative election
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Penghu
June 6
- Pentagon to start kicking out transgender troops
- Eid al-Adha begins
June 7-13
June 7
- Belmont Stakes
June 8
- WorldPride 2025 in Washington, D.C.
June 9
- Apple Worldwide Developers Conference
June 10
- Pakistan federal budget to be presented
June 11
- Argentina President Javier Milei to visit Jerusalem
June 12
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Kinmen
June 14-20
June 14
- Military parade in Washington, D,C.
June 15
- Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar to resign
June 16
- Court case of jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu
June 18
- First hearing on Lee Jae-myung’s South Korea election violation case
June 19
- Deadline for bids to buy Pakistan International Airlines
- Taiwan holds civil defense drill in Chaiyi
- Current suspension of Air India flights to Tel Aviv ends
June 21-27
June 23
- India’s airspace restrictions on Pakistani aircraft due to be lifted
June 24
- NYC primary elections
- Pakistan’s airspace restrictions on Indian aircraft to be lifted
Top photo: Image of Hurricane Milton from NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite on Oct. 8, 2024. (Photo: NOAA)
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