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Week of Feb. 28-March 7
A Look Ahead
March 1 – End of Gaza ceasefire first phase
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that the country is ready to resume combat in Gaza “at any moment” after Saturday, when the first stage of the ceasefire and prisoner-exchange agreement with Palestinian militant group Hamas ends. Mediators, including the United States, Egypt and Qatar, said they’re working to maintain calm.
What’s happened so far
Despite Israeli soldiers shooting at Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and Hamas’ initial failure to deliver the body of a deceased Israeli captive, the fighting has stopped for more than a month. Israel hasn’t taken any steps to start talks on the second stage of the agreement, which stipulates an end to the war, full Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian territory and exchange of remaining prisoners. Hamas, whose highest-level leadership has been wiped out and military capabilities severely degraded, said it’s ready for the second stage and even relinquishing its monopoly on power in the territory.
The impact
It’s unclear when Israel’s offensive might resume since Netanyahu is under pressure to secure the return of about 60 remaining Israelis held in Gaza Strip, half of whom are believed to still be alive. Meanwhile, ministers in his right wing-dominated government continue to call for a return to bombing Palestinians and even expelling them from their land, as proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Arab leaders have expressed vocal opposition to removing Gazans, offering instead to make plans to rebuild the territory without addressing the most contentious issues such as Hamas’ post-war status or Israel’s expanding occupation and military attacks in the West Bank.
March 1 – Deadline to return gas supplies to Moldova from Transnistria
The Russia-backed breakaway region of Transnistria will have to return a volume of gas to Moldova by Saturday.
What’s happened so far
The initial arrangement between Moldova and Transnistria was struck at the end of January to provide an emergency supply of gas to Transnistria at the height of an acute energy crisis impacting the region, which was triggered by Ukraine ceasing deliveries of Russian gas to the European market. Transnistria, which had long relied on free Russian gas shipments, entered into a period of crisis with heating and hot water turned off to homes and nearly all industry shuttered.
The impact
The shut down of Transnistrian industry has severely impacted Moldova, which heavily relied on electricity produced from the country’s largest power plant in Transnistria that was subsidized by free Russian gas. But a series of agreements, including the initial gas loan that Transnistria plans to pay back with a Russian loan as well as a new agreement with a Hungarian firm to guarantee gas supply, have helped put off a more serious crisis. While the deals have prevented a worsening humanitarian crisis, a long-term solution remains out of reach for the time being and have prompted Transnistrian officials to raise utility tariffs and seek alternative energy solutions.
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March 1 – End of Syria caretaker government
A new Syrian government will take power Saturday, just months after the country’s president was ousted by armed factions.
What’s happened so far
The new executive will replace the caretaker government led by Mohammad al-Bashir that was established after President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster by an alliance of Islamist groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in December 2024, ending more than 50 years of Assad family rule in the country. A transitional legislature led by HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa will take power until a new constitution is drafted and elections can be held, a process that, according to Al-Sharaa, could take up to five years.
The impact
Al-Sharaa led a national dialogue conference in Damascus on Tuesday, pledging the establishment of a transitional justice body and welcoming participation from some of the 600 delegates from across the country who were invited to the event to suggest recommendations for the constitutional text ahead of its drafting. Skeptics have accused Al-Sharaa of “tokenism,” claiming minority groups such as northeastern Syria’s Kurds did not have enough representation. The Kurdish-led militia Syrian Democratic Force have refused Al-Sharaa’s proposal for the disarmament of non-state armed groups and the handing over of their territories to interim government forces.
March 4 – Trump address to Congress
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday in his first such remarks since beginning his second term in office.
What’s happened so far
Presidents have addressed a joint session of Congress in the months after their inaugurations since 1981. The prime-time address offers a president the opportunity to highlight his legislative agenda, rally support and set the tone for his time in office. In 2017, just over one month after being sworn in for his first term, Trump addressed a joint session of Congress, broadly laying out his vision to overhaul the nation’s heath care system, secure the southern border and rewrite trade deals to benefit the United States. His stated priorities for his second term follow similar lines.
The impact
Trump is expected to highlight his sweeping agenda, which he has touted as putting “America first,” as he faces political headwinds and legislative setbacks to implementing some of his plans. The president’s speech on Tuesday will come days before Congress comes up against a funding deadline, giving Republicans the opportunity to push ahead with Trump’s domestic policy agenda. On Tuesday, Trump helped Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson garner enough support to move forward with a resolution seeking to trim the federal budget by $2 trillion while delivering $4.5 trillion in tax breaks over the next 10 years. The House, which includes 218 Republicans and 215 Democrats, and the Senate, which is split 53-45, will reach that deadline on March 14.
March 5 – Sanctuary city leaders testifying before U.S. House panel
The mayors of four U.S. cities will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday after a congressional committee called them out for their status as sanctuary cities.
What’s happened so far
Sanctuary cities have been in place around the United States since the 1980s, but they became part of the national dialogue in 2015 when presidential candidate Hillary Clinton decried San Francisco’s law enforcement officials after the shooting of a 32-year-old woman by an immigrant in the country illegally after being deported five times. Then-candidate Donald Trump also mentioned the shooting in his presidential nomination acceptance speech. As president in 2017, he issued an executive order declaring jurisdictions as ineligible for federal grants if they didn’t share information with federal authorities. It was later permanently blocked. Since then, multiple cities and states have strengthened their sanctuary policies, while others have outright banned them. Last month, the Republican chairman of the House Oversight Committee invited the mayors of Boston, New York City, Chicago and Denver to a hearing because of their “abject failure to comply with federal law.”
The impact
Multiple studies show that sanctuary laws have no impact on crime. That hasn’t stopped Republicans from railing against them, especially now at a time in which President Trump promised to undertake the “largest deportation program in American history.” The mayors have all said they would uphold existing sanctuary laws, but Trump’s Justice Department recently dropped corruption charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams amid a re-election campaign. He may take this as an opportunity to announce new policies that align more with the current administration.
March 6 – Israeli military chief of staff steps down
Israeli armed forces Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi will end his more than two-year tenure Thursday in an effort to take responsibility for failing to prevent the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel.
What’s happened so far
Halevi became the first Orthodox Jew to lead the Israeli military in January 2023. The chief of general staff typically serves a four year term, but it was widely assumed that Halevi would resign when the war in the Gaza Strip had deescalated. Halevi has been frequently criticized by the Israeli far-right since Oct. 7 for showing too much restraint against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Halevi announced his resignation in January, shortly before Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz imposed a deadline for the internal military investigation into Oct. 7’s strategic failures.
The impact
Halevi is the highest ranking Israeli public figure to resign for their role in the Oct. 7 disaster. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated that he will be held accountable in elections and public inquiries at the end of the war. The next chief of general staff will be Eilat-born Major General Eyal Zamir. His appointment will come shortly after news that Israeli forces have deployed tanks into the West Bank for the first time in decades.
March 7 – Japanese and British officials meet in Tokyo
British and Japanese government ministers are expected to meet for high-level talks in Tokyo on Friday to discuss strengthening economic ties as the two countries pursue a new level of relations amid concerns over U.S. protectionism.
What’s happened so far
In 2020, the United Kingdom, which left the European Union and became responsible for its own trading relationships, signed its first deal in the form of an economic partnership agreement with Japan. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pledged in November 2024 to deepen bilateral relations in all areas in the aftermath of the U.S. election, including new military exercises.
The impact
Talks come as countries brace for potential trade tariffs and fallout from U.S. protectionist policies imposed by President Donald Trump. Japan and the United Kingdom have also pursued closer defense ties, with military exercises taking place in January and both countries working on a new fighter jet program expected to rival the U.S. F-35.
What Else Matters
South Pacific cyclones
Three tropical cyclones were active in the South Pacific basin at the same time this week in a rather unlikely occurrence. The storms – Rae, Seru, and Alfred – all formed in or around the western side of the basin, where above-average cyclonic activity was expected for this season. Rae formed near Fiji, Seru formed between Fiji and Vanuatu, and Alfred formed in the Coral Sea near Australia.
Watch for: While no injuries have been reported, water supply to Fiji’s Central Division was significantly disrupted, after heavy rains reduced the quality of inflow water, prompting a major restoration effort involving dozens of water trucks. A number of homes and farms were also damaged in Lau in the Eastern Division, with some images showing uprooted corrugated metal buildings, and local media warned of possible disruptions to food supply after crops were destroyed. Seru also brought heavy rains, but is moving away from Fiji without much additional disruption, with floodwaters receding and schools resuming. Alfred is forecast to remain offshore, but some projection tracks say it may turn inland towards Australia’s Brisbane, possibly bringing severe weather to the densely-populated coast.
Ukraine ceasefire talks
Diplomatic efforts for a truce agreement between Russia and Ukraine continue after US President Trump reopened communication with Moscow and spoke to President Putin two weeks ago. Since then, top U.S. and Russian diplomats have met in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine, pledging to work toward a ceasefire and restore U.S.-Russian bilateral relations. The sudden nature of this apparent rapprochement and the exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from talks have caused concerns among U.S. allies, with Ukraine saying any peace deal without its input would be unacceptable, and Europe proposing sending troops to uphold a potential ceasefire.
Watch for: Despite loud statements that a ceasefire could be near, talks remain at an early stage and no substantive truce plan has been outlined. Russia’s position remains unchanged, saying that the return of occupied territories in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea regions is non-negotiable, highlighting its unwillingness to make concessions. Any progress toward a ceasefire will likely be the result of protracted negotiations involving all sides with security guarantees. While there is no clear timeline for the restoration of U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations, it sends a clear signal the Trump administration intends to work with Moscow. At the same time, President Donald Trump, whose rhetoric on the war has significantly diverged from that of the previous Biden administration, has questioned the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him a dictator and saying a presidential election must be held – a demand also made by Moscow and is pushing for the signing of a deal with Ukraine for mining rights to the country’s rare earth mineral resources as a way to recoup money spent on aid for Ukraine.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
March 1-7
March 1
- Possible end of U.S. tariff delay
- Agreed date to return gas supplies between Moldova and Transnistria
- Turkey starts Turkmenistan natural gas imports
- End of Syria transitional government
- End of first phase of Gaza ceasefire
March 2
- Washington, D.C., plane crash benefit at Capital One Arena
- Tajikistan lower parliamentary house and local elections
March 3
- Micronesia general elections
March 4
- Trump to address Congress
- Steve Bannon border wall trial
- Mardi Gras
- China’s parliament “Two Sessions” begin
- Egypt to host emergency Arab summit
March 5
- Sanctuary city leaders testify before U.S. Congress
March 6
- Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi will step down
March 8-14
March 8
- Western Australia state elections
March 9
- Liberal Party of Canada leadership vote
March 11
- Greenland election
March 12
- U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in
- Crew-10 mission will launch to the International Space Station
March 14
- Possible U.S. government shutdown
March 15-21
March 15
- United Airlines set to become first U.S. carrier to resume New York-Tel Aviv flights
March 17
- St. Patrick’s Day
March 22-28
March 23
- Opposition party to hold primary to pick Turkish presidential candidate
March 24
- Criminal case hearing against South Korea’s President Yoon on insurrection charges
March 28
- Tajikistan upper parliamentary house elections
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