Dave Clark
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric ordered curfews in multiple communes in Araucania last weekend as wildfires raged in the country’s south-central regions. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Jaime Calle Moreno discuss evacuations linked to the blazes and how the fires intersect with the ongoing conflict with the indigenous Mapuche communities.
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Week of Feb. 14-21
A Look Ahead
Feb. 14 – Munich Security Conference
The Munich Security Conference begins Friday in Germany, with world leaders meeting amid a fear that the United States is now a “a risk to be hedged against,” according to a report issued ahead of the meeting.
What’s happened so far
The conference issued a report on Monday raising concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs and proposed land grabs of Greenland and Canada. Trump will not attend the conference but instead will send Vice President JD Vance, who is likely to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Nearly 60 world leaders are expected to gather in Munich to discuss global security and governance, democratic resilience, climate security, the future of the transatlantic partnership and Europe’s role in the world.
The impact
The new U.S. government’s policy and possible ceasefire plans for the war between Ukraine and Russia will likely become one of the key topics on the sidelines of the event, and a U.S. delegation is expected to visit Ukraine ahead of the conference. U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, however, has denied reports he will unveil a completed peace plan at the conference. In line with the organization’s concerns over populist politics, Germany’s left and right wing anti-establishment parties have been barred from the event.
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Feb. 15 – Togo senate elections
Voters will participate Saturday in Togo’s first Senate elections amid an opposition boycott in the West African country.
What’s happened so far
This will be Togo’s first Senate election as part of a political transition that critics say is designed to extend President Faure Gnassingbé’s rule. In power since 2005, Gnassingbé signed a new constitution into law in May 2024, eliminating direct presidential elections and shifting the selection of the country’s leader to the National Assembly, which he controls. The Senate elections, originally set for Feb. 2, were postponed by two weeks to allow for more candidates. Voters will elect 41 of the 61 seats, while the remaining 20 will be appointed by the president.
The impact
Opposition parties have condemned the election, with the National Alliance for Change announcing a boycott of Friday’s vote. A presidential election is anticipated later this year, but with the public vote replaced by a National Assembly vote – controlled by President Gnassingbé – his family’s hold on power is expected to remain firm.
Feb. 15 – Israeli deadline for Hamas to resume return of captives
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened new military operations in Gaza if Hamas fails to resume releasing captives by midday Saturday.
What’s happened so far
Since mid January, Hamas has gradually released Israeli captives as part of the first 42-day phase of the ceasefire deal. So far, 16 of the expected 33 Israeli captives have been freed, as well as five Thai detainees who were returned in an unscheduled release. In exchange, Israel has released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those serving sentences for deadly attacks and others detained without charges during the war. On Monday, Hamas said it would stop releasing Israeli captives until further notice, accusing Israel of violating ceasefire terms. A day after the unexpected announcement, Netanyahu gave an ultimatum for the Palestinian militant group to return captives by Saturday afternoon, saying the military would end the ceasefire if they aren’t released. Shortly after, the Israeli military announced it would raise the level of readiness and postpone leave for soldiers in the Southern Command.
The impact
The exchange of Israeli captives for Palestinian detainees that was originally set for this Saturday would have been the sixth under the first phase of the ceasefire, with more swaps due to continue on a weekly basis until March 2. While the proposal of the second phase saw all remaining living hostages in Gaza released and Israeli forces completely withdrawn from the territory, concerns are growing that the fragile ceasefire could be broken if no agreement is reached.
Feb. 18 – Trump plans tariffs on oil and metals
U.S. President Donald Trump told White House reporters late last month that he intends to introduce a vague set of tariffs on oil and gas imports around Tuesday. Hours later, the president implemented a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.
What’s happened so far
The new Trump administration fired the first salvo of a potential trade war on Feb. 1 with a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10 percent on Chinese imports, with the stated goal of having the three countries address global fentanyl trafficking. The plan included an exception for a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil exports, which currently make up more than half of all American oil imports. but ultimately was delayed until March 4 after Mexico and Canada made border security concessions. Trump has also enacted a 25 percent tariff on global steel and aluminum imports, a policy especially harmful for Canada, which mines more than half of America’s aluminum.
The impact
he news has seen oil futures rise, with U.S. consumers expected to absorb the costs in the spring. If a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil and gas resumes in March, it would put refineries in the U.S. Midwest in a difficult spot where they would have to decide between cutting production, absorbing the cost of the tariff, or undergoing expensive reconfigurations to refine lighter American crude. Trump’s tariffs policies have also had an effect on the domestic politics of Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum has reached record popularity, and in Canada, where the ruling Liberal Party has closed a massive polling gap with the more Trump-aligned Conservatives.
Feb. 18 – UN Security Council meeting
With Beijing’s month-long presidency of the United Nations Security Council underway, officials are pointing at Tuesday’s meeting as a way for China to sit down with the Trump administration and focus on conflicts like trade, TikTok and the Panama Canal.
What’s happened so far
The presidency of the UN Security Council rotates on a monthly basis between its member states. China’s turn comes at an interesting time: the first month of U.S.President Trump’s second term. Trump has already imposed a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China. China put retaliatory tariffs in place on U.S. products such as liquefied natural gas, coal and farm machinery. Trump also vowed to save TikTok by having its Chinese owner sell the app to an American group and threatened to take back the Panama Canal because of claims the Chinese are operating it, of which there is no evidence. It did, however, lead to Panama’s exit from China’s Belt and Road initiative.
The impact
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be at the UN in the upcoming days and a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio could happen. China’s UN ambassador said cooperation is needed because “so much is at stake.” Rubio hasn’t confirmed whether or not he will attend. China appears to be using this as an opportunity to invite a face-to-face meeting with a hostile Trump administration. If it’s refused, China could then say it is practicing what it preaches by trying to “strengthen multilateralism” at the UN.
Feb. 20 – South Korean President Yoon’s criminal trial opens
Amid ongoing impeachment proceedings, embattled South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will face his first preliminary hearing next Thursday for a criminal trial on charges of insurrection.
What’s happened so far
After a short-lived attempt at declaring martial law last December, Yoon was quickly impeached by the legislature on grounds of violating the constitution, and he was arrested on separate criminal charges of insurrection in January. His impeachment and criminal cases are conducted separately, with the Constitutional Court in charge of the former, and the Seoul Central District Court handling the latter.
The impact
Impeachment proceedings are continuing at a quick clip, with some legal circles anticipating a potential mid-March verdict. Yoon’s legal team, however, may invoke a constitutional act asking the court to pause impeachment proceedings because of the concurrent criminal trial involving similar allegations. Thousands of demonstrators continue to rally across the country both against and in support of the president.
What Else Matters
Chile wildfires
Over the weekend, Chilean President Gabriel Boric declared a preventive state of emergency for the regions of Ñuble and Maule, ahead of forecasts of extremely high temperatures up to 104 Fahrenheit (40 Celsius). It was to no avail, though, as wildfires began propping up in both regions and across dozens of points in south-central regions, most notably in Araucanía. Currently, large emergency contingents are combating 22 active wildfires, with another 55 under control, according to authorities. At least 28 homes have been destroyed, leaving one person killed in Maule, with another three injured and about three dozen others in temporary shelters. The Araucanía region has been under nighttime curfew since Saturday in 12 communes.
Watch for: Authorities have hinted that a large part of these wildfires are in fact intentional, and may have to do with territorial conflicts within indigenous Mapuche areas and, with 14 people already arrested, could become a serious issue leading to more arson attacks, both on property or forestry. Temperatures are set to remain high, and fires are expected to continue to pop up in different areas, stretching the capabilities of disaster management agencies and firefighters. Nearly 30,000 acres are currently burning across the Araucanía region alone, and this will likely increase as fires continue.
Greece earthquakes
A state of emergency is currently in place in the popular Greek island of Santorini through March 1 after the tourist hotspot was hit by a series of earthquakes with magnitude higher than 4.0 since January. Since then, more than 12,000 aftershocks have been felt on the island and its surroundings. On Monday, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake was felt in Athens.
Watch for: Santorini has been on high alert since the start of the tremors. Authorities have urged people to remain calm and follow instructions, with no injuries reported so far. Meanwhile, more than 11,000 people have left the island and schools remain closed on several other islands, including Amorgos. Authorities are particularly worried about the high risk of landslides, with people urged to avoid ports, indoor gatherings and going near cliffs. As a result, access to areas north of Santorini and Old Harbor have been closed off. It is unclear if this level of activity will last more weeks or months, making it impossible to predict when normal life can resume on the island.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Feb. 14-21
Feb. 14
- Munich Security Conference begins
- Super Bowl parade in Philadelphia
- Rail workers’ strike in France’s Ile-de-France region
Feb. 15
- Togo’s first senatorial election
- Israeli deadline for Hamas to resume return of captives
Feb. 16
- NBA All-Star Game in San Francisco
Feb. 17
- Indictment against United Healthcare CEO shooter
Feb. 18
- Lebanon ceasefire ends
- Possible Trump oil and gas tariffs
- UN Security Council meeting
Feb. 19
- Trump’s proposed date to end birthright citizenship
- ICC Champions Trophy in Pakistan
Feb. 20
- South Korean President Yoon’s first criminal hearing on insurrection charges
- Christie’s first AI art auction
- G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Johannesburg
Feb. 21
- Michigan minimum wage increase
Feb. 22-28
Feb. 23
- Germany elections
- Funeral for Hezbollah’s Nasrallah
Feb. 24
- Canada liberal leadership debates
- U.S. Veteran Affairs department enforces partial return-to-work policy
Feb. 25
- EPA deadline to remove hazardous material from Los Angeles fires
Feb. 26
- SpaceX water-hunting moon probe launch
Feb. 27
- Ontario elections
- Emergency Arab summit in Egypt
March 1-7
March 1
- Possible end of U.S. tariff delay
- Agreed date to return gas supplies between Moldova and Transnistria
- Turkey starts Turkmenistan natural gas imports
- End of Syria transitional government
March 2
- Washington, D.C., plane crash benefit at Capital One Arena
- Tajikistan lower parliamentary house and local elections
March 3
- Micronesia general elections
March 4
- Trump to address Congress
- Steve Bannon border wall trial
- Mardi Gras
- China’s parliament “Two Sessions” begin
March 8-14
March 8
- Western Australia state elections
March 9
- Liberal Party of Canada leadership vote
March 12
- U.S. steel and aluminum import tariffs kick in
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Top photo: The Munich Security Conference begins Friday, with Ukraine expected to be a main topic of discussion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pictured at the meeting in 2024, is expected to meet with U.S. Vice President JD Vance. (Photo: MSC / Michael Kuhlmann)
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