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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized a provincial capital in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Owen Bonertz discuss what led up to the group taking over Goma and the risk of violence spilling into more areas as the intentions of the group’s offensive remains unclear.
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Week of Jan. 31-Feb. 7
A Look Ahead
Feb. 1 – Possible U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada
U.S. President Donald Trump could announce tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products by Saturday, after setting Feb. 1 as a tentative deadline in comments to reporters on Inauguration Day.
What’s happened so far
On the first day of his second term, Trump threatened neighboring countries with 25 percent tariffs if they failed to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Both Mexico and Canada have taken steps to reinforce border security, prevent the entry of drugs and decrease migration into the United States in the months leading up to Trump’s inauguration. Mexican officials have expressed frustration over the U.S. administration’s refusal to sit at the negotiating table, claiming President Claudia Sheinbaum has achieved a considerable drop in immigration while increasing anti-drugs operations. Canada, for its part, pledged to spend $900 million on border security in December, including the acquisition of U.S.-made drones and the deployment of additional security forces to its border.
The impact
It remains unclear whether the Trump administration will follow through with the threats, but some experts believe the president’s ambitions go beyond tightening border security and could be aimed at gaining a top negotiating position ahead of the upcoming revision of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in 2026. The imposition of 25 percent tariffs for Mexico and Canada would result in a hit to businesses in all three countries and a steep rise in prices for consumers, putting the automobile industry in a particularly vulnerable position. They also are likely to be met with retaliatory tariffs, which both Mexico and Canada have threatened. Trump has also vowed to apply tariffs and additional levies to the EU and China.
Feb. 1 – Airlines plan to resume some Middle East flights
Multiple airlines, notably the Lufthansa group, will start to bring flights back to Israel and other parts of the Middle East on Saturday with the ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah appearing to hold.
What’s happened so far
In October 2023, most airlines canceled their flights to and from Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport following the Hamas attack. It took several months before some airlines restarted their daily service. Notably, United Airlines restarted nonstop flights the following March, becoming the first U.S.-based carriers to do so. However, there have been multiple stops and starts since then. Iran’s missile attack on Israel in April halted flights, and flights were canceled once again in August during Israel’s heaviest clashes with Lebanon. In October, Lufthansa announced it was suspending flights to places like Beirut and Tehran until early 2025.
The impact
Airlines are hoping this will be the last time they need to cancel flights for several months to Israel and the Middle East. While some airlines previously announced cancellations into March, the conflicts involving Israel have since deescalated. As travel season creeps closer, those companies will need to see the ceasefires continue to hold before they reinstate flights again.
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Feb. 5 – Delhi elections
On Wednesday, citizens of the Indian capital Delhi will head to the voting booths for the union territory’s legislative assembly elections.
What’s happened so far
The results of the election will be announced on Saturday, and there are two parties at the forefront of the total 70 seats up for grabs: the currently ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the national Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Arving Kejriwal, AAP’s leader and frontrunner for Delhi’s chief minister position, won the last three elections but resigned in September 2024 over claims of corruption and financial crimes. Meanwhile, BJP candidate Parvesh Verma will attempt to regain control of the territory for the party for the first time in 25 years. The Indian National Congress will also attempt to take some seats.
The impact
The central focus of the electoral campaign has been allegations of corruption from all sides, with the BJP accusing Kejriwal of voter irregularities, and the typically anti-corruption Kejriwal accusing BJP of vote-buying and using agencies like the Enforcement Directorate to target opposition leaders. While Kejriwal and the AAP remain ahead in polls, it is yet to be seen how significant BJP’s rise, with their slogans of “Parivartan” (change), will be from the previous legislative elections, when they won eight seats.
Feb. 6 – Islamabad hosts climate conference
Climate change experts will gather in Pakistan’s Islamabad on Thursday for the Breathe Pakistan conference.
What’s happened so far
According to the 2024 World Risk Report, Pakistan is among the top 10 countries facing the most risk for disasters caused by natural events and climate change. Officials have called for making the country more climate-resilient, pointing to widespread flooding in 2022 to illustrate the stakes. That year, fueled by unprecedented monsoon rains, floodwaters impacted over 33 million people, amounting for one-in-every-seventh person nationwide. More than 1,700 people were killed and nearly 13,000 others injured.
The impact
The Breathe Pakistan conference, announced by DawnMedia last fall, aims to encourage people to make environmental sustainability a part of their everyday lives. Among those scheduled to speak are Pakistani government officials, experts from nearly a dozen countries and representatives from groups including the World Bank and the United Nations. Organizers said the conference “is not simply about awareness,” but is a call to action for “every Pakistani to take ownership of our environment, to contribute to a wide-ranging policy on climate change, and to lay the foundations for a climate-resilient Pakistan.”
Feb. 7 – Pakistan hosts multinational naval exercise and dialogue
Pakistan will host its the Exercise Aman (Peace) multinational naval exercise in the waters off Karachi starting next Friday. Ceremonies will commence at the Pakistan Navy Dockyard there.
What’s happened so far
This year marks the ninth iteration of the exercises and professional conference first held in 2007. Previous exercises have seen the participation of multiple countries that are ostensibly rivals on the global stage, including China, the United States, and Russia in 2021, with Iran as a regular attendee as an observer. Bangladesh is also participating in the exercise for the first time, yet another indication of the warming relationship between Dhaka and Islamabad after the ouster of the pro-India Hasina regime.
The impact
Exercises and conferences like these are key fora for working cooperation between geopolitical rivals — especially this year with the debut of the “AMAN Dialogue,” billed as a venue for leaders from various navies and coast guards to discuss salient issues of the day and as a potential barometer for the direction of global maritime cooperation in an era of political and technological change. That direction may not be one particularly friendly to Delhi, with one of its closest allies growing friendlier with one of its closest adversaries.
What Else Matters
M23 rebels attack Goma, DR Congo
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel movement has surged into Goma, the largest city in eastern DR Congo, in recent days. Government forces and their “Wazaslendo” militia allies lost control of the city on Tuesday, while M23 continued their advance into neighboring South Kivu province. M23 are a predominantly ethnic Tutsi army who trace their origins to groups of Tutsi refugees who fled the Rwandan genocide in the 1990s. M23 seized the city of Goma in 2012 shortly after the group’s emergence, but were swiftly forced out after a wave of western sanctions on their Rwandan patrons. They have retained territory in the North Kivu region since, but greatly increased their offensive actions in 2023. An Angola-brokered ceasefire paused direct confrontations with the government in August, but the deal dissolved when M23 resumed taking territory at the end of December. Panic quickly ensued in Goma over the past week as M23 took control of nearby Sake and Minova.
Watch for: As of Wednesday, M23 appears to have taken control of the entire city and are administering border crossings with Rwanda. The news has prompted riots in the capital city of Kinshasa nearly 1,000 miles away. Western powers have condemned the M23 movement and offered vocal support for Kinshasa, but have not yet imposed sanctions against Rwanda as they did in 2012. It remains to be seen if Rwanda will attempt to directly annex the territory they helped seize in the northeast, but they have already begun tapping the region’s major mineral deposits. It is possible that the conflict’s escalation will draw in additional troops from the UN, Burundi or the Southern African Development Community, who already have forces deployed in the region. Angola and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio have also expressed a desire to restart ceasefire talks.
Storm Éowyn and Storm Herminia hit western Europe
Two powerful winter storms struck western Europe over the weekend in quick succession, triggering mass disruption in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and France. The UK’s Met Office called Éowyn, the first of the storms, probably the strongest storm in a decade after it brought winds of more than 100 mph to coastal areas and caused power outages for more than 1 million people. Éowyn was followed by Storm Herminia, a Spanish-named system, which has triggered flooding, avalanches and severe winds in France, Spain, the UK and Portugal.
Watch for: Northwest France has been particularly impacted by Storm Herminia with severe flooding and evacuations in Brittany as the back-to-back storms caused waterways to overflow. Meanwhile in Spain, Galicia bore the brunt of the storm with coastal areas placed under alert due to high winds and powerful waves. Flooding from Storm Herminia has also triggered a major incident in Somerset, England, with more than 100 people evacuated Monday. The storms highlight the role of human-induced climate change in intensifying weather events and the need to build greater resilience for extreme conditions. In its three-month forecast, the UK’s Met Office warns of the increased risk of storms “giving rise to a greater risk of ‘storm clustering,’ with consecutive events affecting the UK in quick succession.”
Serbian protests and prime minister’s resignation
Serbia has been rocked by successive mass student-led protests against government corruption and the handling of the Novi Sad railway tragedy that left 15 people dead in November 2024. In an attempt to quell public ire, Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigned during an extraordinary press conference on Tuesday along with the mayor of Novi Sad, Milan Đurić. Vučević said the decision was made “in order not to further raise tensions in society.” He also cited an attack on students by a group of unidentified men on Monday as another trigger for his resignation. The student protest movement has issued several key demands including the publication of all documents concerning the renovation of the railway station in Novi Sad, the prosecution of individuals implicated in attacks on student protesters and a halt to the prosecution of students detained during demonstrations.
Watch for: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has accepted Vučević’s resignation and said a decision will be made within 10 days on whether to call an election or simply appoint a new prime minister. It is unclear whether Vučević’s resignation will be enough to placate the protest movement which has morphed over the last two months from calling for accountability for those implicated in the Novi Sad tragedy into broader demonstrations against government corruption. In another concession to protester demands, Vučić has also pledged to issue pardons to students and university tutors charged in connection with the mass demonstrations. In the near term, further protests are highly likely, especially in Novi Sad where one of the students attacked on Monday night remains in a serious condition.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Jan. 31-Feb. 7
Jan. 31
- Possible Costco strike
Feb. 1
- President Trump says he thinks tariffs will be imposed on Mexico and Canada
- Airlines begin to resume flights to Israel
Feb. 2
- 67th Annual Grammy Awards in Los Angeles
Feb. 3
- Day when Israel and Hamas agreed to begin negotiations for second phase of ceasefire
Feb. 5
- Delhi legislative assembly election
- Milkipur assembly by-election
Feb. 6
- Islamabad hosts UN and World Bank experts for climate conference
Feb. 7
- Pat King, organizer of Canada’s “Freedom Convoy,” to be sentenced
- Pakistan hosts multinational naval exercise and dialogue
Feb. 8-14
Feb. 8
- Baltic countries disconnect from Russia’s BRELL grid
Feb. 9
- Kosovo elections
- Ecuador elections
- Liechtenstein national parliament elections
- Super Bowl
- Palestinians will be able to return to north Gaza through Salah ad-Deen road
Feb. 10
- Amazon employees at a North Carolina warehouse will vote on unionizing with the independent group CAUSE
- Meta plans to cut 5% of its workers in performance-based job cuts
- France hosts Artificial Intelligence Action Summit
Feb. 12
- African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Feb. 13
- France to hold conference on Syria
Feb. 14
- Munich Security Conference begins
Feb. 15-21
Feb. 18
- Lebanon ceasefire ends
Feb. 22-28
Feb. 23
- Germany elections
Feb. 27
- Ontario elections
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Top photo: President Donald Trump is joined by then Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the USMCA signing ceremony on Nov. 30, 2018, in Buenos Aires. (Photo: Shealah Craighead / White House)
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